Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
TRADING
This ebook may be freely distributed, however only in its original form as prepared by
its author and without any amendments and/or edits.
All information obtained within this book is for educational purposes only and do not act as an
actual investment or trading advice. The author of the ebook is not a Chartered Financial Advisor.
When there is a reference to a certain investment vehicle made, such as futures, forex, stocks
or options, this is for educational purposes only. Financial speculation carries a high degree of
uncertainty and risk. An individual who makes a decision to speculate on movements of financial
markets is fully responsible for this decision and its outcome.
Trading.
The dream job of making a lot of money and being your own boss.
This is why you are totally amazed by an idea of trading the mar-
kets - Forex, Futures or stocks.
Trading has been massively ‘hyped’ over last few years, with thou-
sands of websites dedicated to it appearing out of nowhere.
For example:
- Or, they are just totally ignorant and truly believe it’s possible to
start with few hundred $ and retire next year (or even month)
To make sure you have odds on your side, you have to come from
a position of strength - meaning having a sufficient capital to
allow for errors (losses).
So, if you start with little capital and your performance is going to
be worse that you expected, what do you think is going to happen?
You start panicking and making even more mistakes, which results
in you losing your initial capital. Based on my experience, beginner
usually starts making mistakes and stops following his strategy
when he loses around 20% of the starting capital.
$600
As visible on the illustration above, the equity curve past this point
is decreasing very rapidly.
Again, the red line shows the 20% initial capital drawdown zone.
$2000
This is because the majority of sites you visit and adverts you see
are there to sell you something.
But as you can imagine, this is now very rarely the case, as the
internet has become totally over-saturated with various trading
websites and channels.
In order to convince you to buy the course, its author will show
you a wide range of charts with huge moves, claiming that the
strategy would get you to enter all of them.
Guess what he’s going to say next? That you too can make such
profits if you buy his strategy.
Sell
This is a typical signal that I get every single day!
Huge returns guaranteed, with capital of $500.
Today only, get this strategy for $500 (usual price
$2500)!
Buy
My point here is the fact that true traders do not tend to use such
an aggressive marketing.
They are not going to offer 90% discount, because if what they are
selling is a real deal, they value it much more than that.
There are indeed some great traders to learn from, however the
majority of online sources is just selling strategies which don’t
work, and are otherwise available on the internet for free.
Now, take a look at how many views these videos have on average
and note this number.
Videos returned on the first page for a phrase ‘simple forex trad-
ing strategy’ all have tens of thousands views on average, with
some of them having even hundreds of thousands views.
If it would have been the case, then why would be people bothered
to work anymore if they could simply start trading?
Then, he visits a few websites that all sell some kind of a hyped,
magic strategy.
He loses, just to find out that this could have been avoided, had he
spent more time learning the proper stuff.
I cannot understand why there are so many people who think they
will actually get know-how on how to make money trading
completely for free.
The reason why so many people are literally hooked on free stuff
is because this freebie marketing is now everywhere and became
a part of our contemporary culture.
BUY SELL
A very visible reversal takes place in market, and the price goes
down rapidly. Again, no signal is provided by his strategy.
‘I knew the market will reverse there. I knew the price will go down
because there has been a reversal price-action pattern!’
At this moment, he forgets all rules and starts clicking buy and
sell, biased by the need to trade in order to meet his unrealistic
target:
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell Sell
The point here is that beginners tend to start with small capital
(which is the key problem), and are trying to compensate for this
by aiming for huge profits in absolute terms.
The reality is that choosing the right type of trading to start with
makes a difference. It can even determine whether you will survive
in your beginnings or not.
All of these different ways to trade have their pros and cons, and
affect various factors such as capital requirements and time
investment needed.
These beginners are biased by a very naïve belief that the more
trades they make, the more profit they generate. Altought this
makes sense theoretically, reality may be very, very different.
One of the selling points was that Forex is the biggest exchange
in the world (as if this would have been important at all) and even
giving a number of trades made on Forex per year (who the f*ck
cares?).
Futures Stocks
High margin = lower capital Many different stocks to
needed to hold positions choose from
This became very apparent in recent years, when the vast majority
of short-term trading opportunities on minute time-frames literally
disappeared from markets.
The problem lies in the way intraday charts tick. They are
designed (by HFTs manipulating the orderflow) to attract retail
traders to enter the market in certain situations, at certain times.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
The big deal is the fact that such manipulations are taking place
on low time-frames essentially all the time. Such a volatile and
fast-paced environment gives rise to psychological pressure that
beginner cannot handle, and as a result of that, ends up clicking
buy and sell while completely forgetting his rules.
Coloured vertical lines represent trades. The green and red lines
represent profitable and losing trades, while blue lines show
missed trade opportunities.
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
At the same time, trader feels the euphoria arising from the gain,
and he is biased by it.
Second trade is a loss. This causes his stress level to shoot up, as
the profit made on first trade is now diminished.
Trader does not react fast enough and misses this opportunity –
stress is now high and recovers slowly.
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
It’s quite clear on the example above that beginner who picks
swing-trading to start with provides himself with considerably
more time to recover from stress caused by an outcome of any
given trade.
- Capital
- Education
- Expectations
- Way of trading
HOW TO START
- Capital should be sufficient enough to allow for a maximum of
3% risk per trade (2% ideally)
I am pretty sure that 90% of traders are not able to answer the
following question: ‘What makes the price to move?’
Only after I got back to basics was I able to start making profits
because I truly understood markets and price movements.
HOW TO START
- Learn fundamental basics of market auction first
- Stop looking for easy strategies promising huge profits and stop
following people who claim they possess such strategy
Basically, you need take your strategy to a level at which you know
exactly what you trade, why you trade it and how you execute it.
Only after you have reached this point should you start increasing
your financial targets, period.
HOW TO START
- Set no financial target in the beginning – the only objective is to
remain around break even
- Only after you have mastered the execution of your strategy well
enough should you start setting financial targets
HOW TO START
- Conduct a proper research on different markets available for
trading, in relation to the initial capital available
Best of luck,
David