NITTE MEENAKSHI INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

(AN AUTONOMOUS INSTITUTION)

AFFILITED TO VISVESVARAYA TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY, BELGAUM
APPROVED BY AICTE & GOVT OF KARNATAKA
YELAHANKA, BANGALORE – 560064

PROJECT ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

ON
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET AT
JWINGS MANIFEST WEALTH

SUBMITTED BY
SHRAVANI KRISHNA B
USN: 1NX17MBA44

Under the guidance of

JYOTHI RAVINDRA
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
Department of Management Studies
Nitte Meenakshi Institute Of Technology,
Yelahanka Bangalore-560064
(An Autonomous Institution)
(Approved and accredited by AICTE, affiliated to Visvesvaraya Technological
University, Belagavi)
2017-2019

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 PART A

1. INDUSTRY PROFILE

1.1INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
In an era of constant changing and volatile financial Market, Investors need Qualified
/Trained and an unbiased professional to assist them in achieving their short term and
long term Investment goal. We offer technology based services for their clients to
effectively monitor their portfolio and help them in reaching their financial goals.
They are focused to be the most reliable and efficient provider of financial services to
its clients. Their endeavour is to be the one stop solutions for all financial needs of its
investors and aids regarding stock market, advisory services, training, Investment
planning, wealth creation and insurance.

1.2NATURE OF THE INDUSTRY

JWINGS MANIFEST WEALTH is a financial market company where it deals with
both Global market and Indian Market. In Indian Market the company provides
Portfolio Management services (PMS) where the portfolio requires huge amount and
returns are giving in profit sharing ratio.

1.3GROWTH POTENTIAL
Forex is the largest financial market of the world. Compared to the measly$22.4
billion per day volume of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the foreign
exchange market looks absolutely great with its $ 5.3 trillion a day trade volume. The
largest stock market in the world, the New York Stock Exchange, trades a volume of
about $22.4 billion per day.

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1.4ECONOMY
India has a diversified financial sector undergoing rapid expansion, both in the terms
of strong growth of existing financial service firms and new entities entering the
market. The sector comprises commercial banks, insurance companies, non-banking
financial companies, co-operatives, pension funds, mutual funds, and other smaller
financial entities. The banking regulator has allowed new entities such as payments
banks to be created recently thereby adding to the types of entities operating in the
sector. However, financial sector in India is predominantly a banking sector with
commercial banks accounting for more than 64 percent of the total assets held by
financial system. The Government of India has introduced several reforms to
liberalize, regulate and enhance this industry. The Government and Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) have taken various measures to facilitate easy access to finance of Micro,
Small and Medium Enterprise (MSMEs). These measures include launching Credit
Guarantee Fund Scheme for Micro and Small Enterprises, issuing guideline to banks
regarding collateral requirements and setting up a Micro Units Development and
Refinance Agency (MUDRA). With a combined push by both private sector and
government, India is undoubtedly one of the world's most vibrant capital market.

1.5COMPETITOR’S ANALYSIS
“StarFing” is the competitor which is into the forex market and works as the JWings
Company. They provide the same services to the people and the parent company,
trading platform keeps the same.

1.6MARKET SHARE
Mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity in India rose 125 per cent year-on-year to
US$ 32.5 billion across 445 deals during January-September 2017. The assets under
management (AUM) of the mutual fund (MF) industry grew 45 percent to Rs 17.89
lakh crore (US$ 268.35 billion) during March 2017 to February 2018. Mutual fund
asset base in India increased by Rs. 3.71 trillion (US$ 55.65 billion) to reach a total
corpus of Rs 17 trillion (US$ 255 billion) in 2016, which is the highest growth record
in the last seven years.

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1.7GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS
SEBI plans to tighten the norms governing various market participants in order to
strengthen scrutiny to improve transparency and to mitigate liquidity risks from
algorithmic trading. SEBI has relaxed norms for registered foreign portfolio investors
(FPIs) in India, allowing them to operate through the International Financial Service
Centres (IFSC) without undergoing any prior approval process. The RBI has
introduced trading in interest rate options (IRO), effective from January 31, 2017
which will provide another avenue to market participants to speculate on interest rate
risk.

2. COMPANY PROFILE

2.1BACKGROUND OF THE COMPANY

JWINGS focuses in training and educating individuals about global market and to
sharpen their skills to participate in the financial world. Jwings came alive with
intention to provide support and guidance to new comers to the trading world. The
knowledge and the years of experience in trading have customized the training
program and made it simple for a layman to understand the financial market.In an
era of constant changing and volatile financial Market, Investors needQualified/
Trained and an unbiased professional to assist them in achieving theirshort term
and long term Investment goal.At Investor centric, the single utmost aim is to
assist clients with dedication andintegrity so that we exceed their expectations and
build enduring relationships.They are having more than a year of experience in
Financial Service Sectors. Weoffer technology based services for our clients to
effectively monitor their portfolioand help them in reaching their financial goals.
They focus at being the most reliable prompt and efficient provider of financial
services. They endeavour to be one stop solutions for financial boutique and tobe
immense help to our investors, learners and provide help regarding, stock market
,advisory services, training, Investment planning, wealth creation and insurance.
J Wings is a Subsidiary of FW Markets LTD was registered in 2014 in Saint
Vincentand the Grenadines under license number 20779 IBC 2014 .The Company's
legaland correspondence address is Cedar Hill Crest, P.O. Box 1825, Villa,
St.Vincentand the Grenadines.

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5
 2.2PROMOTERS

The Organisation structure consists of 2 Promoters namely KiranBindu and C.Moral

they are playing an important role in the promotion of the company The business of J
wings contains the portion of risk that requires convincing skills and assertive skills to
approach clients. They have forwarded the ‘Email format’ to approach clients
through social media

2.3NATURE OF THE BUSINESS CARRIED

Jwings is a financial service providing company it operates globally. It has various

business activities like:

 Information & Training Centre

 Foreign Exchange Trading
 Index Trading:
 Futures Contract Transactions

INFORMATION & TRAINING CENTRE :

Jwings provides information to its customers about trading and also about the market
volatility.Theyalso recruit some of them as interns and give training to them
,where in the training they used to train about the forex market and let us to do
trade in the demo account to get some practical knowledge about trading and also the
market

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FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING :

As compared to other financial trading markets, foreign exchange day – trading

has numerous advantages. Such as Liquidity, 24-hour Trading, Leverage, Taking
Advantage of falling currency.
Currency trading is, in many ways, more beneficial than trading futures or stocks. The
foreign exchange market is 24-hour market, daily. It means that the trader of
Currency can essentially choose their own hours to do their trading business. Foreign
day-trading demands a lot less beginning capital than day stock trading, hence,
investors can really begin small in the currency market. Traders need to focus on
several leading currencies only, instead of on tens and thousands of stocks.

INDEX TRADING:

Index Trading is a type of trading of a group of stocks which make up the index. An
Index is a measurement of the value of a section of the stock market. It is computed
from the prices of selected stocks. It may also be referred as a group of stock
market publicly listed uppermost businesses within a region

FUTURES CONTRACT TRANSACTIONS :

A futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell a particular commodityor

asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Futures contracts are
standardized for quality and quantity to facilitate trading on a futures exchange
.The buyer of a futures contract is taking on the obligation to buy the underlying asset
when the futures contract expires. The seller of the futures contract is taking on the
obligation to provide the underlying asset at the expiration date

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8
 2.4Vision, Mission & Quality Policy

 VISION:

To be the most trusted & respected professional services firm recognised by our
clients delivering excellent services, which is value for money & more than their
expectations.Also to become most credible Future broker globally with widest
portfolio of financial products that serves the clients globally, transacting and
investing in Futures Exchange, especially with major commodity products and
Foreign Exchange.

 MISSION:

To develop meaningful & life long relationship with the clients by providing them the
highest quality services & address every aspect of their financial related issuesTo give
most credible advice to individual investors, on potential investmentopportunities in
Future Exchange, balancing risk, and profitability.To educate the investing public on
Futures Exchange and provide the completeunderstanding so that they may exploit the
maximum benefits.

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 QUALITY POLICY:

BELOW ARE THE VALUES FOLLOWED UP TO MAINTAIN THE

QUALITY

o Integrity

o Pursuit of excellence

o Accountability

o Collaboration

o Passion

2.5SERVICE PROFILE

 FINANCIAL PLANNING: To achieve your dreams and fulfil your future

obligations, you must carefully plan your finances. This can be done via sound
financial planning that considers your current and future needs, your individual risk
profile, and your income to chart out a roadmap to meet these anticipated needs.

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 INVESTMENT PLANNING: Placing of funds into the proper investment vehicles
basedon the investor’s future goals, time horizon and priorities. This also considers
the safety of the investments as well as liquidity and level of return. Ideally,proper
investment planning will allow the investor’s funds to produce financialrewards over
time.

 RISK MANAGEMENT: Risk management is the continuing process to identify,

analyse, evaluate, and treat loss exposures and monitor risk control to mitigate
theadverse effects of loss. While a variety of different strategies can mitigate
oreliminate risk, the process for identifying and managing the risk is standardFirst,
threats or risks are identified. And then the vulnerability of key assets likeinformation
to the identified threats is assessed.

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2.6AREA OF OPERATION

In India operates mainly in Bangalore and Hyderabad.

2.7FUTURE GROWTH & PROSPECTUS

The company is planning to open new branches in major states like Tamilnadu ,
Andrapradesh , telangana and also have large number of loyal customers to the
company and to maintain the long lasting relationship with the clients .

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 PART -B

3. MCKINSEY’S 7S FRAMEWORK

McKinsey 7S framework was developed in 1980s by Tom Peters and Robert

Waterman, two consultants working at the McKinsey & Company consulting firm,
the basic premise of the model is that there are seven internal aspects of an
organization that need to be aligned to be successful.

This model involves seven interdependent factors which are categorized as either
“hard” or “soft” elements:

Hard elements are easier to define or identify and can directly influence them, they
are:
1. Strategy
2. Structure
3. System

Soft elements are more difficult to describe, and are less tangible and more influenced
by culture, they are:

1.Shared values
2.Skills
3.Style
4.Staff

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 STRATEGY:

A leading company with broad and diverse businesses in investment banking, intraday
sales and Asset management and Securities services.

 Trend Trading
Trend trading is one of the most popular and common forex trading strategies. It involves
identifying an upward or downward trend in a currency price movement and choosing
trade entry and exit points based on the positioning of the currency's price within the
trend and the trend's relative strength.

 Range Trading
Range trading is a simple and popular strategy based on the idea that prices can often
hold within a steady and predictable range for a given period of time. That's particularly
evident in markets involving stable and predictable economies, and currencies that aren't
often subject to surprise news events.

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  Momentum Trading

Momentum trading and momentum indicators are based on the notion that strong price
movements in a particular direction are a likely indication that a price trend will continue
inthat direction.

 Win - win strategy

They are implementing win- win strategy in the org by recruiting the interns to the
company and giving them the training and giving some more knowledge of
foreign market and how to strategize and trade in the market and invest in the
forex market with their reference (as they are having the tie up with the meta traders by
this the company gains the commission when the investor is traded

STRUCTURE:

The Organisation structure consists of 2 Promoters namely Kiran Bindu and C.Moral.
It consists of Human Resource Manager, Junior Reasearch Analyst and associate.
They have a very good employee employer relationship.

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 STRUCTURE
MANAGING DIRECTOR

BUSINESS HEAD

PORT FOLIO MANAGERS

ASST PORTFOLIO MANAGERS

BUSINESS CONSULTANTS

The present managing directors of company are GOPAL KRISHNA and MEGESH
who started their business as partnership in the year 2008 from the day one they are
the MD s of the company

The present business head is MEGESH who is looking after the whole business
activity . He worked as a business head in the canvainvestersgroup , karnool ,
AP .He is having around 15 years of experience as business head in various
companies . He will be the incharge of all the financial activities of the business from
investment portfolio to paying the commission and meeting the day to day expenses
of the company.

PORTFOLIO MANAGERS : (PM)

They look after the portfolio accounts of the investers there are four portfolio
managers where each of them are handling nearly 35-40 accounts .portfolio
managers have the right to open and close the position of the account according
to the updates and latest news

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ASST PORTFOLIO MANAGERS: (APM)

The asst portfolio managers works under portfolio managers. They have to
report their activities to the portfolio managers and they have to work according
to the work assigned by the portfolio managers and there are around 6 assistant
portfolio managers who are working under the different portfolio managers

BUSINESS CONSULTANTS :

They will work at the lower level management where they will directly deal with the
investors and clients. They will provide and update the recent updates to the account
holders regularly through mails and messages

SYSTEM:

They are using the separate operating softwares and application by name GRAND
BLOOM , METATRADER 4 , METATRADER 5 ,NINJA TRADER, TRADE
STATION etc according to the markets for eg grand bloom is used for trading in
forex market where we can trade currencies, gold, silver etc where as in meta trader 4
we can trade only currencies but we cannot trade commodities like gold , silver ,
platinum etc

The company is also providing the free trading accounts in these applications who
are interested in learning trading

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SKILLS:

COMMUNICATION SKILLS:The actual skills of the employees were better

communication skills and they should be able to convince their customers and also
theyshould have thorough knowledge about the industry

ANALYZING SKILLS:Mainly the employees should have the knowledge of

analyzing skill in thecurrency market and also should be updated with the recent
trends and current affairs like what is going around the world as we are trading in
the forex market globally

DECISION MAKING ABILITY UNDER PRESSURE:This is one of the

important skill required by the employee even when the crisis occurs in the
organisation the employee should also be confident and strong even at the critical
conditions and should be able to take a correct decisions to overcome from the
crisis

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 STYLE:

The company is following the participative style of management where it

willconsiderall the level of employees in decision making by conducting regular
meetings.

As it is following the participative style of management all the employees are happy as
their words and they plan is considered and because of this good co ordination and
unity between the employees

The top levelmanagers that are the promoters manage the company and they take
decisions. They interact in a friendly manner with their employees and also with their
clients. The team members work very smartly to accomplish the organizations goals.

STAFF:

It is more effective to run this business since they recruit interns to work for them.
The daily activities performed by the employees are very routine and systematic.
They keep a track on their clients record and suggest them to invest in particular
shares through their analysis and communicates to them.

SHARED VALUES

The core values of the organization isClient first and Ethics before Clients.
These are the core values of the company that are evidenced in the corporate
culture and the general work ethics.

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 PART C

4. SWOT ANALYSIS

(i) SWOT ANALYSIS:

The overall evaluation of companies strength, weakness,

opportunities and threats is called SWOT Analysis

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STRENGTHS:

1. Jwings provides customer care facilities to their clients at free of cost

2. Jwings provide online services like sending trading information through e mail
3. Jwings has served more than ten thousand customer across its all branches
4. Jwings has expertise analysis and research team
5. provides capital appreciation
6. high rate on return possible
7. 24 hr market for trading

WEAKNESS:

1. Lack of sales promotional activity.

2. It is limited to urban areas and cities only
3. It will not trade in the INDIAN MARKET
4. Less tie ups
5. Hish risk investment option

OPPORTUNITY:

1. Growing market demand.

2. optimum use of latest technology

THREAT:

1 fluctuation in economic development

2 tough competition
3 artificial intelligence
4 more financial penalties
5 Initial capital may get wiped out
6 Swap points (for short)
7 External factors(high impact news).

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 PART-D

SUMMARY OF THE PROJECT

Forex (FX) is the market in which currencies are traded. The forex market is the largest,
most liquid market in the world, with trillions of dollars changing hands every day. There is
no centralized location, rather the forex market is an electronic network of banks, brokers,
institutions, and individual traders. All these entities have currency needs, and may also
speculate on the direction of currencies.

They post their orders to buy and sell currencies on the network so they interact with other
currency orders from other parties. The forex market is open 24 hours a day, five days a
week, except for holidays. Currencies may still trade on a holiday if at least country/global
market is open for business.

The forex market is unique for several reasons, mainly because of its size. Trading volume is
generally very large. As an example, trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.1
trillion per day in April 2016, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

The largest foreign exchange markets are located in major global financial centers like
London, New York, Singapore, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, and Sydney.

Trading activities in FOREX market

From a historical standpoint, foreign exchange trading was largely limited to governments,
large companies, and hedge funds. But in today's world, trading currencies is as easy as
a click of a mouse. Accessibility is not an issue, which means anyone can do it. Many
investment firms, banks, and retail forex brokers offer the chance for individuals to open
accounts and to trade currencies.

A currency is always traded relative to another currency. If you sell a currency, you are
buying another, and if you buy a currency you are selling another. In the electronic trading
world, a profit is made on the difference between your transaction prices.

TOPIC CHOSEN

In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis discipline for forecasting the direction

22
of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Behavioral

economics and quantitative analysis incorporate substantial aspects of technical analysis,

which being an aspect of active management stands in contradiction to much of modern

portfolio theory. According to the weak-form efficient-market hypothesis, such forecasting

methods are valueless, since prices follow a random walk or are otherwise essentially

unpredictable.

The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial markets over

hundreds of years. The oldest known hints of technical analysis appear in Joseph de la Vega

accounts of the Dutch markets in the 17th century. In Asia, the oldest example of technical

analysis is thought to be a method developed by Homma Munehisa during early 18th century

which evolved into the use of candlestick techniques, and is today a main charting tool. In the

1920s and 1930s Richard W. Schabacker published several books which continued the work

of Dow and William Peter Hamilton in his books Stock Market Theory and Practice and

Technical Market Analysis. At the end of his life he was joined by his brother in law, Robert

D. Edwards who finished his last book. In 1948 Edwards and John Magee published

Technical Analysis of Stock Trends which is widely considered to be one of the seminal

works of the discipline. It is exclusively concerned with trend analysis and chart patterns and

remains in use to the present. It is now in its 9th edition. As is obvious, early technical

analysis was almost exclusively the analysis of charts, because the processing power of

computers was not available for statistical analysis. Charles Dow reportedly originated a
form of chart analysis used by technicians—point and figure analysis. Dow Theory is based
on the collected writings of Dow Jones co-founder and editor Charles Dow, and inspired the
use and development of modern technical analysis from the end of the 19th century. Other
pioneers of nanalysis techniques include Ralph Nelson Elliott, William Delbert Gann and
Richard Wycko-who developed their respective techniques in the early 20th century. Many

23
more technical tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, with
an increasing emphasis on computer-assisted techniques.

General description

While fundamental analysts examine earnings, dividends, new products, research and the
like, technical analysts examine what investors fear or think about those developments

and whether or not investors have the wherewithal to back up their opinions; these two

concepts are called psych (psychology) and supply/demand. Technicians employ many

techniques, one of which is the use of charts. Using charts, technical analysts seek to identify

price patterns and market trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns.

Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are

mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down volume, advance/decline

data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help access whether an asset is trending,

and if it is, its probability of its direction and of continuation.

Technicians also look for relationships between price/volume indices and market indicators.

Examples include the relative strength index, and MACD.

Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in options (implied volatility)

and put/call ratios with price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios,

bull/bear ratios, short interest and Implied Volatility, etc.

Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such trends before investors are aware

of them. Uncovering those trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, imperfect as

they may be. Fundamental indicators are subject to the same limitations, naturally. Some

traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make

trading decisions which conceivably is the most rational approach. Users of technical analysis

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are often called technicians or market technicians. Some prefer the term technical market

analyst or simply market analyst. An older term, chartist, is sometimes used, but as the

discipline has expanded and modernized, the use of the term chartist has become less popular,

as it is only one aspect of technical analysis.

Six Most Popular Currencies for Trading

The US Dollar

The Euro

The Japanese Yen

The Great British Pound

The canadian Dollar

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Support and resistance is a concept in technical analysis that the movement of the price

of a security will tend to stop and reverse at certain predetermined price levels.

Support

A support level is a price level where the price tends to find support as it is going down.

However, once the price has passed this level, by an amount exceeding some noise, it is
likely to continue dropping until it finds another support level.

Resistance

A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price tends to find
resistance as it is going up. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off
this level rather than break through it.

However, once the price has passed this level, by an amount exceeding some noise, it is
likely that it will continue rising until it finds another resistance level.

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Reactive vs Proactive support and resistance

Most Traders will be aware of the many different types of Support and Resistance methods
used by traders Proactive Support and Resistance methods are ‘predictive’ they often outline
areas where price has not actually been. They are formed based upon current price action that
through analysis has been shown to be predictive of future price action. Proactive Support
and Resistance methods include Elliot, Fibonacci, Calculated Pivots, Trendlines and Moving
averages. VWAP, Market Profile (VAH, VAL and POC) Reactive Support and Resistance
are the opposite they are formed directly as a result of price action or volume behaviour.
They include Volume Profile, Price Swing lows/highs, Initial Balance, Open Gaps and
OHLC. Both Proactive and Reactive Support and Resistance methods have merit and form a
staple part of any Support and Resistance based trading strategy.

Identifying support and resistance levels

Support and resistance levels can be identified by trend lines. Some traders believe in using
pivot point calculations. The more often a support/resistance level is "tested"
(touched and bounced off by price), the more significance given to that specific level. If a
price breaks past a support level, that support level often becomes a new resistance level. The
opposite is true as well, if price breaks a resistance level, it will often find support at that
level in the future. Various methods of determining support and resistance exist. A price
histogram is useful in showing at what price a market has spent more relative time.
Psychological levels near round numbers often serve as support and resistance.

More recently, volatility has been used to calculate potential support and resistance.

MARKET TREND

A market trend is a putative tendency of a financial market to move in a particular direction

over time.These trends are classified as secular for long time frames, primary for medium
time frames, and secondary lasting short times. Traders identify market trends using technical
analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as a predictable price response of
the market at levels of price support and price resistance, varying over time. The terms bull
market and bear market describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can
be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.

Primary market trend

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Bull market

A bull market is associated with increasing investor confidence, and increased investing in

anticipation of future price increases (capital gains). A bullish trend in the stock market often
begins before the general economy shows clear signs of recovery. It is a win-win situation for
the investors.

Bear market

A bear market is a general decline in the stock market over a period of time. It is a transition
from high investor optimism to widespread investor fear and pessimism. According to The
Vanguard Group, "While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one
generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month
period.

Secondary market trend

Secondary trends are short-term changes in price direction within a primary trend. The
duration is a few weeks or a few months. One type of secondary market trend is called a
market correction. A correction is a short term price decline of 5% to 20% or so. A correction
is a downward movement that is not large enough to be a bear market (ex post). Another type
of secondary trend is called a bear market rally which consist of a market price increase of
10% to 20%. A bear market rally is an upward movement that is not large enough to be a bull
market (ex post). Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock
market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and
early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei 225 has been typified by a number of bear market rallies
since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.

Secular market trend

A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of

sequential primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger

bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.

In a secular bull market the prevailing trend is " bullish& quot; or upward moving. The
United States stock market was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983
to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including the crash of 1987 and the dot-com bust of

27
2000–2002. In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is &quot: bearish" or
downward moving. An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold during the period
between January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the Brown Bottom. During this period
the nominal gold price fell from a high and became part Market trend 17 of the Great
Commodities Depression.

NEED FOR THE STUDY

Technical analysis is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify

trading opportunities in price trends and patterns seen on charts.

Technical analysts believe past trading activity and price changes of a security can be
valuable indicators of the security’s future price movements.

Technical analysis may be contrasted with fundamental analysis, which focuses on a

company& financials rather than historical price patterns or stock trends.

DETAILED LITERATURE REVIEW

According to Achelis :Technical analysis is the process of analyzing a security‘s historical

prices in an effort to determine probable future prices.

According to Edwards, Magee and Bassetti: It refers to the study of the action of the market
itself as opposed to the study of the goods in which the market deals. Technical Analysis is
the science of recording, usually in graphic form, the actual history of trading (price changes,
volume of transactions, etc.) in a certain currency ”

According to Murphy : Technical analysis is the study of market action, primarily through the
use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends. The term market includes the
three principal sources of information available to the technician—price, volume, and open
interest.

According to Pring ; The art of technical analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal
at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or
proves that the trend has reversed.

Therefore, technical analysis is based on the assumption that people will continue to make the
same mistakes they have made in the past.

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According to Cory Janssen, Chad Langager and Casey Murphy

Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics generated

by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to
measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify
patterns that can suggest future action.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1) To forecast the future trends and provide suitable suggestions to the investors.

2) To identify the inherent technical strength and weakness of the equity shares.

3) To represent the trend of the stock price through charts of the technical analysis.

4) The main objectives of technical analysis are t be able to profit from trading by observing
market patterns and statisics, to know when to enter ndexit a market especially when it starts
to shift, and to not let emotions influence trading decisions.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:

1. One of the most important limitations for most technical analysismethods is the fact that
there are so many people using the basic technical analysis methods already, and the number
is increasing every day, making it harder for a single trader to make money on the market
with the methods.

2. Because of these methods are so widely spread and there is so much money riding on the
methods, some also claim that technical analysis has become self-fulfilling prophecy, as
people trend to enter the market and put their stops on the same places, increasing the
volatility towards the technical analysis method being correct.

3. Technical analysis systems usually do not take into accountCorrelation between different
markets. If you are analyzing several markets and they all give similar signals, they may have
close correlations, meaning that the risk profile for each is very similar, and that the prices of
the assets move in close steps with each other.

29
 PART-E

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Particulars Mar'18 Mar'17 Mar'16 Mar'15

Liabilities 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months

Share Capital 88.28 88.28 140.81 140.81

Reserves & Surplus 2922.14 2767.95 2372.22 2235.81

Net Worth 3010.42 2856.23 2513.03 2376.62

Secured Loan 376.29 610.23 374.13 240.35

Unsecured Loan 1536.98 661.64 550.00 225.00

TOTAL LIABILITIES 4923.69 4128.10 3437.16 2841.97

Assets

Gross Block 322.09 223.75 201.13 206.75

(-) Acc. Depreciation 116.09 107.51 95.29 78.74

Net Block 206.00 116.24 105.84 128.01

Capital Work in Progress 79.70 126.15 105.86 44.09

Investments 248.51 234.51 233.56 176.10

Inventories 3.93 9.45 11.66 7.68

Sundry Debtors 1788.50 1226.20 978.70 730.42

Cash and Bank 544.79 516.14 494.08 397.04

Loans and Advances 2561.77 2275.10 2282.79 1599.60

Total Current Assets 4898.99 4026.89 3767.23 2734.74

Current Liabilities 499.19 325.53 718.03 168.44

Provisions 10.32 50.16 57.30 72.53

Total Current Liabilities 509.51 375.69 775.33 240.97

NET CURRENT ASSETS 4389.48 3651.20 2991.90 2493.77

Misc. Expenses .00 .00 .00 .00

TOTAL ASSETS(A+B+C+D+E) 4923.69 4128.10 3437.16 2841.97

Rs (in lks)

30
 DATA ANALYSIS

Relative Strength Index

The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of
recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or
other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two
extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100.

The Formula for RSI

The relative strength index (RSI) is computed with a two-part calculation that starts with the
following formula:

The average gain or loss used in the calculation is the average percentage gain or losses
during a look-back period. The formula uses positive values for the average losses.

The standard is to use 07 periods to calculate the initial RSI value. For example, imagine the
market closed higher seven out of the past 14 days with an average gain of 1%. The
remaining seven days all closed lower with an average loss of -0.8%.

Currencies used for RSI Caluclation

USD/JPY

AUD/JPY

USD/GBP

EUR/USD

31
 AUD/JPY
Change
Date Price Open High Low % Gain loss RS RSI
19-Jul 0.7019 0.7022 0.7049 0.6909 -0.01%
19-Jun 0.702 0.6934 0.7024 0.6829 1.17% 0.0117 0
19-May 0.6939 0.7048 0.7062 0.6863 -1.56% 0 0.0156
19-Apr 0.7049 0.7113 0.7206 0.6986 -0.68% 0 0.0068
19-Mar 0.7097 0.7096 0.7169 0.7003 0.03% 0.0003 0
19-Feb 0.7095 0.7276 0.7285 0.7052 -2.45% 0 0.0245
19-Jan 0.7273 0.7048 0.7296 0.6744 3.13% 0.0313 0 0.923241 48.00443
18-Dec 0.7052 0.7369 0.7396 0.7016 -3.63% 0 0.0363 0.520433 34.22925
18-Nov 0.7318 0.7075 0.7347 0.7073 3.45% 0.0345 -0.0345 1.35729 57.5784
18-Oct 0.7074 0.7229 0.7238 0.7018 -2.16% 0 0.0216 1.20841 54.71854
18-Sep 0.723 0.7196 0.7317 0.7086 0.54% 0.0054 0 1.492693 59.88275
18-Aug 0.7191 0.7427 0.7454 0.7175 -3.20% 0 0.032 0.891114 47.12111
18-Jul 0.7429 0.7389 0.7487 0.731 0.32% 0.0032 0 1.34296 57.31895
18-Jun 0.7405 0.757 0.7679 0.7326 -2.17% 0 0.0217 0.559014 35.85691
18-May 0.7569 0.7531 0.7607 0.7411 0.48% 0.0048 0 1.17402 54.00225
18-Apr 0.7533 0.7689 0.7814 0.7524 -1.90% 0 0.019 0.1421 12.44197
18-Mar 0.7679 0.7762 0.7917 0.7641 -1.07% 0 0.0107 0.160671 13.84298
18-Feb 0.7762 0.8055 0.8067 0.7756 -3.64% 0 0.0364 0.066778 6.259781
18-Jan 0.8055 0.7802 0.8136 0.7793 3.24% 0.0324 0 0.460137 31.51326
17-Dec 0.7802 0.7566 0.7825 0.7499 3.11% 0.0311 0 0.777904 43.754
17-Nov 0.7567 0.7657 0.773 0.753 -1.18% 0 0.0118 0.876765 46.71683
17-Oct 0.7657 0.784 0.7899 0.7624 -2.26% 0 0.0226 0.631841 38.71951
17-Sep 0.7834 0.7947 0.8125 0.7798 -1.42% 0 0.0142 0.663532 39.88693
17-Aug 0.7947 0.8003 0.8043 0.7805 -0.70% 0 0.007 0.690217 40.83601

70

60

50

40
Series1
30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

32
 EUR/USD

Change
Date Price Open High Low % gain loss RS RSI
19-Jul 1.1271 1.136 1.1365 1.1194
19-Jun 1.137 1.1169 1.1414 1.1156 -0.38% 0 0.0038
19-May 1.1169 1.1215 1.1267 1.1108 -0.48% 0 0.0048
19-Apr 1.1217 1.1218 1.1326 1.1112 0.04% 0.0004 0
19-Mar 1.1218 1.137 1.1449 1.1175 0.63% 0.0006 0
19-Feb 1.1371 1.1446 1.1489 1.1232 0.57% 0.0057 0
19-Jan 1.1446 1.1466 1.1572 1.1288 0.56% 0.0056 0 0.77907 43.79085
18-Dec 1.147 1.1315 1.1486 1.1267 -0.21% 0 0.0021 2.5625 71.92982
18-Nov 1.1317 1.1311 1.1502 1.1215 -0.52% 0 0.0052 5.857143 85.41667
18-Oct 1.1312 1.1609 1.163 1.1301 0.86% 0.00836 0 1.630137 61.97917
18-Sep 1.1609 1.1596 1.1816 1.1525 2.24% 0.0224 0 2.693151 72.92285
18-Aug 1.1601 1.1691 1.1735 1.1299 -2.26% 0 0.0226 4.980822 83.27989
18-Jul 1.1691 1.165 1.179 1.1572 2.73% 0.0273 0 1.028763 50.70887
18-Jun 1.1685 1.1693 1.1853 1.1509 -0.63% 0 0.0063 2.088489 67.62171
18-May 1.1692 1.2078 1.2087 1.1508 -0.01% 0 0.0001 2.008997 66.76633
18-Apr 1.2079 1.2323 1.2414 1.2054 5.46% 0.0546 0 1.713793 63.15121
18-Mar 1.2323 1.2194 1.2477 1.2154 1.00% 0.01 0 2.824138 73.85032
18-Feb 1.2194 1.2413 1.2556 1.2188 0.34% 0.0034 0 14.35938 93.48932
18-Jan 1.2421 1.2002 1.2537 1.1915 -2.73% 0 0.0273 10.625 91.39785
17-Dec 1.1998 1.1904 1.203 1.1718 -1.97% 0 0.0197 2.481752 71.27883
17-Nov 1.1904 1.1646 1.1962 1.1554 -1.64% 0 0.0164 1.446809 59.13043
17-Oct 1.1646 1.1818 1.1882 1.1575 0.21% 0.0021 0 0.211356 17.44792
17-Sep 1.1814 1.1911 1.2094 1.1717 1.42% 0.0142 0 0.086751 7.982583
17-Aug 1.191 1.1842 1.2071 1.1663 -0.54% 0 0.0054 0.257098 20.45169

100
90
80
70
60
50
Series1
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

33
 USD/JPY

Change
Date Price Open High Low % Gain Loss RS RSI
19-Jul 0.7019 0.7022 0.7049 0.6909 -0.01%
19-Jun 0.702 0.6934 0.7024 0.6829 1.17% 0.0117 0
19-May 0.6939 0.7048 0.7062 0.6863 -1.56% 0 0.0156
19-Apr 0.7049 0.7113 0.7206 0.6986 -0.68% 0 0.0068
19-Mar 0.7097 0.7096 0.7169 0.7003 0.03% 0.0003 0
19-Feb 0.7095 0.7276 0.7285 0.7052 -2.45% 0 0.0245
19-Jan 0.7273 0.7048 0.7296 0.6744 3.13% 0.0313 0 0.520433 34.22925
18-Dec 0.7052 0.7369 0.7396 0.7016 -3.63% 0 0.0363 0.794471 44.27328
18-Nov 0.7318 0.7075 0.7347 0.7073 3.45% 0.0345 0 0.741031 42.56278
18-Oct 0.7074 0.7229 0.7238 0.7018 -2.16% 0 0.0216 0.867718 46.45874
18-Sep 0.723 0.7196 0.7317 0.7086 0.54% 0.0054 0 0.622378 38.36207
18-Aug 0.7191 0.7427 0.7454 0.7175 -3.20% 0 0.032 0.827586 45.28302
18-Jul 0.7429 0.7389 0.7487 0.731 0.32% 0.0032 0 0.386201 27.86037
18-Jun 0.7405 0.757 0.7679 0.7326 -2.17% 0 0.0217 0.636122 38.87987
18-May 0.7569 0.7531 0.7607 0.7411 0.48% 0.0048 0 0.1421 12.44197
18-Apr 0.7533 0.7689 0.7814 0.7524 -1.90% 0 0.019 0.160671 13.84298
18-Mar 0.7679 0.7762 0.7917 0.7641 -1.07% 0 0.0107 0.066778 6.259781
18-Feb 0.7762 0.8055 0.8067 0.7756 -3.64% 0 0.0364 0.128018 11.34895
18-Jan 0.8055 0.7802 0.8136 0.7793 3.24% 0.00324 0 0.445786 30.83346
17-Dec 0.7802 0.7566 0.7825 0.7499 3.11% 0.0311 0 0.502439 33.44156
17-Nov 0.7567 0.7657 0.773 0.753 -1.18% 0 0.0118 0.341692 25.46722
17-Oct 0.7657 0.784 0.7899 0.7624 -2.26% 0 0.0226 0.35883 26.40726
17-Sep 0.7834 0.7947 0.8125 0.7798 -1.42% 0 0.0142 0.373261 27.18062
17-Aug 0.7947 0.8003 0.8043 0.7805 -0.70% 0 0.007 0.617626 38.18101
50
45
40
35
30
25
Series1
20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

34
 USD/CAD

Change
Date Price Open High Low % Gain Loss RS RSI
19-Jul 1.3031 1.3091 1.3146 1.3016 -0.47%
19-Jun 1.3092 1.3523 1.353 1.3057 -3.12% 0 0.0312
19-May 1.3514 1.3388 1.3566 1.3355 0.93% 0.0093 0
19-Apr 1.3389 1.3355 1.3524 1.3273 0.32% 0.0032 0
19-Mar 1.3346 1.3172 1.3471 1.3128 1.35% 0.0135 0
19-Feb 1.3168 1.3123 1.3343 1.3066 0.34% 0.0034 0
19-Jan 1.3124 1.3636 1.3664 1.3116 -3.77% 0 0.0377 0.426705 29.90844
18-Dec 1.3638 1.3256 1.3664 1.3157 2.57% 0.0257 0 0.79971 44.43548
18-Nov 1.3296 1.3157 1.3362 1.3047 1.07% 0.107 0 4.299735 81.13113
18-Oct 1.3155 1.2902 1.3173 1.278 1.93% 0.0193 0 4.564987 82.03051
18-Sep 1.2906 1.3039 1.3228 1.2882 -1.02% 0 0.0102 3.526096 77.9059
18-Aug 1.3039 1.3005 1.3176 1.2885 0.25% 0.0025 0 3.296451 76.72498
18-Jul 1.3007 1.3141 1.3291 1.2983 -0.95% 0 0 3.22547 76.33399
18-Jun 1.3132 1.2957 1.3387 1.2857 1.34% 0.0134 0 16.46078 94.27288
18-May 1.2958 1.2844 1.3049 1.2727 0.92% 0.0092 0 14.84314 93.68812
18-Apr 1.284 1.2902 1.2945 1.2524 -0.42% 0 0.0042 3.083333 75.5102
18-Mar 1.2894 1.2832 1.3127 1.2804 0.48% 0.0048 0 2.076389 67.49436
18-Feb 1.2832 1.2315 1.2843 1.2254 4.20% 0.042 -0.042 -1.90212 210.8504
18-Jan 1.2315 1.2579 1.2591 1.2248 -2.10% 0 0.021 -4.13095 131.9392
17-Dec 1.2579 1.2897 1.292 1.2513 -2.46% 0 0.0246 8.897436 89.89637
17-Nov 1.2896 1.289 1.2913 1.2665 0.08% 0.0008 0 7.282051 87.9257
17-Oct 1.2886 1.2475 1.2918 1.2431 3.34% 0.0334 0 10.38462 91.21622
17-Sep 1.247 1.2479 1.253 1.206 -0.10% 0 0.001 17.6087 94.62617
17-Aug 1.2482 1.2479 1.278 1.244 0.02% 0.0002 0 16.6087 94.32099

250

200

150

Series1
100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

35
MOVING AVERAGES

A moving average (MA) is a widely used indicator in technical analysis that helps smooth out
price action by filtering out the “noise” from random short-term price fluctuations. It is a
trend-following, or lagging, indicator because it is based on past prices.

36
USD/JPY

Date Price Moving Average

19-Jul 0.7019
19-Jun 0.702
19-May 0.6939
19-Apr 0.7049
19-Mar 0.7097
19-Feb 0.7095
19-Jan 0.7273 0.707028571
18-Dec 0.7052 0.7075
18-Nov 0.7318 0.711757143
18-Oct 0.7074 0.713685714
18-Sep 0.723 0.716271429
18-Aug 0.7191 0.717614286
18-Jul 0.7429 0.722385714
18-Jun 0.7405 0.724271429
18-May 0.7569 0.731657143
18-Apr 0.7533 0.734728571
18-Mar 0.7679 0.743371429
18-Feb 0.7762 0.750971429
18-Jan 0.8055 0.763314286
17-Dec 0.7802 0.768642857
17-Nov 0.7567 0.770957143
17-Oct 0.7657 0.772214286
17-Sep 0.7834 0.776514286
17-Aug 0.7947 0.780342857

0.82
0.8
0.78
0.76
0.74
0.72
Price
0.7
Moving Average
0.68
0.66
0.64
0.62
18/Apr

18/Aug
18/Mar

18/May

18/Jul

18/Oct
18/Jun

18/Dec
18/Jan
18/Feb

18/Sep

18/Nov

AUD/USD

37
 Date Close Moving average
19-Jul 1.12702
19-Jun 1.13695
19-May 1.11686
19-Apr 1.11683
19-Mar 1.12153
19-Feb 1.13
19-Jan 1.12175 1.12442
18-Dec 1.13702 1.125848571
18-Nov 1.14474 1.126961429
18-Oct 1.14673 1.131228571
18-Sep 1.13155 1.133331429
18-Aug 1.13133 1.134731429
18-Jul 1.16033 1.139064286
18-Jun 1.16077 1.144638571
18-May 1.16901 1.149208571
18-Apr 1.16826 1.152568571
18-Mar 1.16929 1.155791429
18-Feb 1.20805 1.16672
18-Jan 1.23266 1.181195714
17-Dec 1.21935 1.189627143
17-Nov 1.24133 1.201135714
17-Oct 1.19978 1.205531429
17-Sep 1.19034 1.208685714

1.26
1.24
1.22
1.2
1.18 Series1
1.16
Close
1.14
Moving average
1.12
1.1 Close
1.08 Moving average
1.06
1.04

38
EUR/USD

Date Closing Price Moving Average

Jul-19 1.1271
Jun-19 1.137
May-19 1.1169
Apr-19 1.1217
Mar-19 1.1218
Feb-19 1.1371
Jan-19 1.1446 1.129457143
Dec-18 1.147 1.1323
Nov-18 1.1317 1.131542857
Oct-18 1.1312 1.133585714
Sep-18 1.1609 1.139185714
Aug-18 1.1601 1.144657143
Jul-18 1.1691 1.149228571
Jun-18 1.1685 1.152642857
May-18 1.1692 1.155814286
Apr-18 1.2079 1.1667
Mar-18 1.2323 1.181142857
Feb-18 1.2194 1.1895
Jan-18 1.2421 1.201214286
Dec-17 1.1998 1.2056
Nov-17 1.1904 1.208728571
Oct-17 1.1646 1.208071429
Sep-17 1.1814 1.204285714
Aug-17 1.191 1.198385714

1.26
1.24
1.22
1.2
1.18
1.16
1.14 Closing Price
1.12 Moving Average
1.1
1.08
1.06
1.04
Aug/18
Aug/17
Oct/17

Jun/18

Oct/18

Jun/19
Feb/18

Feb/19
Dec/17

Dec/18
Apr/18

Apr/19

39
USD/GBP

Closing
Date Price Moving Average
Jul-19 1.2572
Jun-19 1.2695
May-19 1.2632
Apr-19 1.3034
Mar-19 1.3033
Feb-19 1.3263
Jan-19 1.3102 1.290442857
Dec-18 1.2759 1.293114286
Nov-18 1.2752 1.293928571
Oct-18 1.2766 1.295842857
Sep-18 1.3031 1.2958
Aug-18 1.2963 1.2948
Jul-18 1.3127 1.292857143
Jun-18 1.3209 1.294385714
May-18 1.33 1.302114286
Apr-18 1.3772 1.316685714
Mar-18 1.4018 1.334571429
Feb-18 1.376 1.344985714
Jan-18 1.4192 1.362542857
Dec-17 1.3515 1.368085714
Nov-17 1.3526 1.372614286
Oct-17 1.3283 1.372371429
Sep-17 1.3397 1.367014286
Aug-17 1.2931 1.351485714

1.45

1.4

1.35

1.3
Closing Price

1.25 Moving Average

1.2

1.15
Oct/17

Aug/18
Jun/18

Oct/18

Jun/19
Aug/17

Feb/18

Feb/19
Dec/17

Dec/18
Apr/18

Apr/19

40
EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE

The exponential moving average is types of indicator which gives more weightage, or
importance, to recent price data than the simple moving average (SMA) does. The EMA
responds more quickly to recent price changes than the SMA. The formula for calculating the
EMA just involves using a multiplier and starting with the SMA.

Calculation of Exponential Moving Average

41
USD/JPY

Exponential Moving
Date Price Moving Average Average
19-Jul 0.7019
19-Jun 0.702
19-May 0.6939
19-Apr 0.7049
19-Mar 0.7097
19-Feb 0.7095
19-Jan 0.7273 0.707028571 0.707028571
18-Dec 0.7052 0.7075 0.707114286
18-Nov 0.7318 0.711757143 0.707958442
18-Oct 0.7074 0.713685714 0.708999764
18-Sep 0.723 0.716271429 0.710321885
18-Aug 0.7191 0.717614286 0.711647776
18-Jul 0.7429 0.722385714 0.713600128
18-Jun 0.7405 0.724271429 0.715540365
18-May 0.7569 0.731657143 0.718470688
18-Apr 0.7533 0.734728571 0.721426667
18-Mar 0.7679 0.743371429 0.725416623
18-Feb 0.7762 0.750971429 0.730062952
18-Jan 0.8055 0.763314286 0.736108649
17-Dec 0.7802 0.768642857 0.742023959
17-Nov 0.7567 0.770957143 0.747284538
17-Oct 0.7657 0.772214286 0.75181722
17-Sep 0.7834 0.776514286 0.756307595
17-Aug 0.7947 0.780342857 0.760677643

0.82
0.8
0.78
0.76
0.74 Price
0.72
Moving Average
0.7
0.68
Exponential Moving
0.66
Average
0.64
0.62
18/Apr

18/Aug
18/May
18/Mar

18/Oct
18/Jul
18/Jun

18/Dec
18/Jan

18/Nov
18/Feb

18/Sep

42
USD/GBP

Date Closing Price Moving Average Exponential moving average

Jul-19 1.2572
Jun-19 1.2695
May-19 1.2632
Apr-19 1.3034
Mar-19 1.3033
Feb-19 1.3263
Jan-19 1.3102 1.290442857 1.290442857
Dec-18 1.2759 1.293114286 1.290928571
Nov-18 1.2752 1.293928571 1.291474026
Oct-18 1.2766 1.295842857 1.292268359
Sep-18 1.3031 1.2958 1.292910475
Aug-18 1.2963 1.2948 1.293254025
Jul-18 1.3127 1.292857143 1.293181865
Jun-18 1.3209 1.294385714 1.293400747
May-18 1.33 1.302114286 1.294985026
Apr-18 1.3772 1.316685714 1.298930606
Mar-18 1.4018 1.334571429 1.305410756
Feb-18 1.376 1.344985714 1.312606203
Jan-18 1.4192 1.362542857 1.321685594
Dec-17 1.3515 1.368085714 1.33012198
Nov-17 1.3526 1.372614286 1.337847854
Oct-17 1.3283 1.372371429 1.344124867
Sep-17 1.3397 1.367014286 1.34828658
Aug-17 1.2931 1.351485714 1.348868241

1.45

1.4

1.35
Closing Price
1.3
Moving Average
1.25
Exponential moving
1.2 average

1.15
Mar/18

Mar/19
Nov/17
Jan/18

Nov/18
Sep/17

Jul/18

Jan/19
Sep/18

Jul/19
May/18

May/19

43
EUR/USD

Exponential Moving
Date Closing Price Moving Average Average
Jul-19 1.1271
Jun-19 1.137
May-19 1.1169
Apr-19 1.1217
Mar-19 1.1218
Feb-19 1.1371
Jan-19 1.1446 1.129457143 1.129457143
Dec-18 1.147 1.1323 1.129974026
Nov-18 1.1317 1.131542857 1.130259268
Oct-18 1.1312 1.133585714 1.130864076
Sep-18 1.1609 1.139185714 1.132377101
Aug-18 1.1601 1.144657143 1.134609836
Jul-18 1.1691 1.149228571 1.137267788
Jun-18 1.1685 1.152642857 1.140063255
May-18 1.1692 1.155814286 1.142927079
Apr-18 1.2079 1.1667 1.147249428
Mar-18 1.2323 1.181142857 1.15341187
Feb-18 1.2194 1.1895 1.159973348
Jan-18 1.2421 1.201214286 1.1674717
Dec-17 1.1998 1.2056 1.174404118
Nov-17 1.1904 1.208728571 1.180644928
Oct-17 1.1646 1.208071429 1.185631565
Sep-17 1.1814 1.204285714 1.189023228
Aug-17 1.191 1.198385714 1.190725498

1.26
1.24
1.22
1.2
1.18 Closing Price
1.16
1.14 Moving Average
1.12
1.1 Exponential Moving
1.08 Average
1.06
1.04
Oct/17

Jun/18

Oct/18

Jun/19
Aug/17

Feb/18

Aug/18

Feb/19
Dec/17

Dec/18
Apr/18

Apr/19

44
AUD/USD

Moving
Date Close average ExponentialMoving Average
19-Jul 1.12702
19-Jun 1.13695
19-May 1.11686
19-Apr 1.11683
19-Mar 1.12153
19-Feb 1.13
19-Jan 1.12175 1.12442 1.12442
18-Dec 1.13702 1.1258486 1.12467974
18-Nov 1.14474 1.1269614 1.125094593
18-Oct 1.14673 1.1312286 1.126209861
18-Sep 1.13155 1.1333314 1.127504692
18-Aug 1.13133 1.1347314 1.128818644
18-Jul 1.16033 1.1390643 1.130681488
18-Jun 1.16077 1.1446386 1.13321914
18-May 1.16901 1.1492086 1.136126309
18-Apr 1.16826 1.1525686 1.139115811
18-Mar 1.16929 1.1557914 1.142147742
18-Feb 1.20805 1.16672 1.146615425
18-Jan 1.23266 1.1811957 1.15290275
17-Dec 1.21935 1.1896271 1.159579913
17-Nov 1.24133 1.2011357 1.167135513
17-Oct 1.19978 1.2055314 1.174116588
17-Sep 1.19034 1.2086857 1.180401884

1.26
1.24
1.22
1.2
1.18 Close
1.16
1.14 Moving average
1.12
1.1 ExponentialMoving
1.08 Average
1.06
1.04
18/Apr

18/Aug
18/Jul

18/Oct
18/Mar

18/May
18/Jun
18/Jan

18/Nov
18/Dec
18/Feb

18/Sep

45
Weighted Moving Average

A Weighted Moving Average puts more weight on recent data and less on past data. This is done by
multiplying each bar’s price by a weighting factor. Because of its unique calculation, WMA will
follow prices more closely than a corresponding Simple Moving Average.

Calculation of WMA

46
USD/JPY

Date Price 3 WMA

19-Jul 0.7019
19-Jun 0.702
19-May 0.6939
19-Apr 0.7049 4.1876
19-Mar 0.7097 4.2045
19-Feb 0.7095 4.2328
19-Jan 0.7273 4.2528
18-Dec 0.7052 4.3106
18-Nov 0.7318 4.2797
18-Oct 0.7074 4.3331
18-Sep 0.723 4.291
18-Aug 0.7191 4.3156
18-Jul 0.7429 4.3107
18-Jun 0.7405 4.3899
18-May 0.7569 4.4264
18-Apr 0.7533 4.4946
18-Mar 0.7679 4.5142
18-Feb 0.7762 4.5672
18-Jan 0.8055 4.6177
17-Dec 0.7802 4.7368
17-Nov 0.7567 4.7278
17-Oct 0.7657 4.636
17-Sep 0.7834 4.5907
17-Aug 0.7947 4.6383

5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Price
2
3 WMA
1.5
1
0.5
0

47
USD/CAD

Date Price 3WMA

19-Jul 1.3031
19-Jun 1.3092
19-May 1.3514
19-Apr 1.3389 7.9757
19-Mar 1.3346 8.0287
19-Feb 1.3168 8.033
19-Jan 1.3124 7.9585
18-Dec 1.3638 7.9054
18-Nov 1.3296 8.033
18-Oct 1.3155 8.0288
18-Sep 1.2906 7.9695
18-Aug 1.3039 7.8324
18-Jul 1.3007 7.8084
18-Jun 1.3132 7.8005
18-May 1.2958 7.8449
18-Apr 1.284 7.8145
18-Mar 1.2894 7.7568
18-Feb 1.2832 7.732
18-Jan 1.2315 7.7124
17-Dec 1.2579 7.5503
17-Nov 1.2896 7.5199
17-Oct 1.2886 7.6161
17-Sep 1.247 7.7029
17-Aug 1.2482 7.6078

9
8
7
6
5
4 Price
3 3WMA
2
1
0

48
EUR/USD

Date Price 3WMA

19-Jul 1.1271
19-Jun 1.137
19-May 1.1169
19-Apr 1.1217 6.7518
19-Mar 1.1218 6.7359
19-Feb 1.1371 6.7257
19-Jan 1.1446 6.7766
18-Dec 1.147 6.8298
18-Nov 1.1317 6.8673
18-Oct 1.1312 6.8337
18-Sep 1.1609 6.804
18-Aug 1.1601 6.8768
18-Jul 1.1691 6.9333
18-Jun 1.1685 6.9884
18-May 1.1692 7.0038
18-Apr 1.2079 7.0137
18-Mar 1.2323 7.1306
18-Feb 1.2194 7.2819
18-Jan 1.2421 7.3307
17-Dec 1.1998 7.3974
17-Nov 1.1904 7.303
17-Oct 1.1646 7.2129
17-Sep 1.1814 7.0744
17-Aug 1.191 7.0638

4
Price
3
3WMA
2

49
AUD/USD

Date Price 3WMA

19-Jul 0.7019
19-Jun 0.702
19-May 0.6939
19-Apr 0.7049 4.1876
19-Mar 0.7097 4.2045
19-Feb 0.7095 4.2328
19-Jan 0.7273 4.2528
18-Dec 0.7052 4.3106
18-Nov 0.7318 4.2797
18-Oct 0.7074 4.3331
18-Sep 0.723 4.291
18-Aug 0.7191 4.3156
18-Jul 0.7429 4.3107
18-Jun 0.7405 4.3899
18-May 0.7569 4.4264
18-Apr 0.7533 4.4946
18-Mar 0.7679 4.5142
18-Feb 0.7762 4.5672
18-Jan 0.8055 4.6177
17-Dec 0.7802 4.7368
17-Nov 0.7567 4.7278
17-Oct 0.7657 4.636
17-Sep 0.7834 4.5907
17-Aug 0.7947 4.6383

5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Price
2
3WMA
1.5
1
0.5
0

50
CONCLUSION

Buying and selling of currencies is not an easy task if you want to make money doing
it. Millions of investors have lost the money in past trying guessing stock price movements.
In order to consistently make money in the stock market, investors have to be right over 70%
of the time.

In today‘s world, if you rely on fundamental analysis, broker‘s advice newspaper, articles or
business channels for your investing or trading decisions, you are asking for a painful
experience in the markets. So, this study on technical analysis will help the investors in
analyzing the scripts based on the technical tools and oscillators to earn fruitful investment.

Technical analysis is the art and science of chart patterns in order to better analyze and
predict prices of a given security. It is also becoming popular with the younger generation.
But further research has to be conducted to know whether the technical analysis alone will
guarantee profits to the investors. Knowledge of the forex markets is the key to the success
and emphasis should be on managing trading risk while technical analysis can help you to
control them.

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