Sunteți pe pagina 1din 6

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING

Faculty of Civil Engineering


Academic Department of Basic Sciences

Title : 6th Qualified Practice

Subject : Statistics

Professor : Ing. Flor Quiñones

Members :

CÁRDENAS ANTÓN, Enzo Enrique


CULQUI MONTOYA, Alvaro Gabriel
ERAZO TITO, Edy Jefferson
PORTELLA HERRERA, Germán Manuel
YAURI LOPEZ, Marco Antonio

Lima, June 7th, 2019.


1. Overbooking of passengers on intercontinental flights is a common practice
among airlines. Aircraft which are capable of carrying 300 passengers are
booked to carry 320 passengers. If on average 10% of passengers who have a
booking fail to turn up for their flights, what is the probability that at least one
passenger who has a booking will end up without a seat on a particular flight?

Solution:

X: passengers who have a booking and turn up for their flights

X ∼ B(320, 0.9)

 µ( X) = 320 × 0.9 = 288


 σ2 (X) =320 × 0.9 × 0.1 = 28.8

Approaching P(X) using a normal distribution:

Y: number of passengers who have a booking and turn up for their flights

Y ∼ N(288, 28.8)

IT IS REQUESTED:

P(Y > 300)

(Applying correction factor 0.5)


(300.5 – 288)
≈ P(Y ≥ 300.5) = P(Z ≥ ) = P(Z ≥ 2.329) = 1- P(Z ≤ 2.329) = 1 – F(2.329)
√28.8

Interpolating values:

z F(Z) 0.99010 – 0.98983 0.99010 − F(2.329)


=
2.32 0.98983 2.33 − 2.32 2.33 − 2.329
2.329 F(2.329)
2.33 0.99010 F (2.329) = 0.990073

→ 1 – F(2.329) = 1- (0.990073) = P(Z ≥ 2.329) = 0.009927

∴ The probability that at least one passenger who has a reservation ends
without a seat is 0.009927.
2. Fatal accidents are observed to occur at a stretch of highway according to a
Poisson process at rate of 15 per month. Find the approximate probability
that in a year there are less than 150 fatal accidents at that stretch.

Solution:

If in a month the average number of accidents is 15, then in a period of two days
there will be 1 accident.

Xi: Number of accidents that occur in a section "i" during a period of two days:

𝑋𝑖 ~𝑃𝑜(1)

Let X be the total number of accidents that occur in 180 periods of 2 days:
180

𝑋 = ∑ 𝑋𝑖
𝑖=1

𝑋~𝑃𝑜(180 ∗ 1)

Since the number of variables that make up X is 180> 30, then the following
approximation can be made: 𝑋~𝑁(180; 180)

IT IS REQUESTED:

P(X<150)
150.5−180
P(X<150+0.5) =P(X<150.5) =P(Z< ) = 𝑃(𝑍 < −2.1988) = 𝐹(−2.1988)
√180

Interpolating values:

z F(Z)
-2.2 0.0139 −2.19 – (−2.2) 0.01463 − 0.0139
=
-2.1988 F(-2.1988) −2.1988 − (−2.2) 𝐹(−2.1988) − 0.0139
-2.19 0.01463

F(-2.1988)=0.01398

∴ The probability that in a year there are less than 150 fatal accidents at that
stretch is 0.01398
3. The Federal Election Commission collects information about campaign
contributions and disbursements for candidates and political committees each
election cycle. During the 2012 campaign season, there were 1,619 candidates
for the House of Representatives across the United States will received
contributions from individuals. Table 8.11 shows the total receipts from
individuals for a random selection of 40 House candidates rounded to the
nearest $100. The standard deviation for this data to the nearest hundred is ơ-
$909.200.

a. Find the point estímate for the population mean.

b. Using 95% confidence, calcúlate the error bound.

c. Create a 95% confidence interval for the mean total individual contributions.

d. Interpret the confidence interval in the context of the problem

Solución:

C: Money from contributions to candidates in 2012.

a. The population mean is

𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑠 22754900
∑ = = 568872.5 ≈ 𝟓𝟔𝟖𝟖𝟕𝟑
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 40

b. Approaching P(c) using a normal distribution:

𝐶 ~ (𝜇, 9092002 )
We know:

 𝐹(𝑧) = 1 − 2
 ∝= 1 − 0.95
F(z)=0.975→ z=1.96, so we express μ as:
𝑧𝜎 𝑧𝜎
𝑋̅ − ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 𝑋̅ +
√𝑛 √𝑛

n: number of contributions, therefore, the error is:


𝑧𝜎 (1.96)(909200)
= = 281763.9992 ≈ 𝟐𝟖𝟏𝟕𝟔𝟒
√𝑛 √40

c. We use the previous equation to obtain the interval:

(1.96)(909200) (1.96)(909200)
568873 − ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 568873 +
√40 √40

𝟐𝟖𝟕, 𝟏𝟎𝟗 ≤ 𝒁 ≤ 𝟖𝟓𝟎, 𝟔𝟑𝟕

d. We estimate with 95% confidence that the average amount of contributions received
from all individuals by candidates from the House of Representatives is between $
287,109 and $ 850,637.

4. An automobile battery manufacturer claims that its midgrade battery has a


mean life of 50 months with a standard deviation of 6 months. Suppose the
distribution of battery lives of this particular brand is approximately normal.

 On the assumption that the manufacturer’s claims are true, find the
probability that a randomly selected battery of this type will last less than
48 months.
 On the same assumption, find the probability that the mean of a random
sample of 36 such batteries will be less than 48 months.

Solution:

X: Usefull lifetime

𝑋−𝜇 𝑋−50
X ∼ N (50, 6) 𝑧= 𝜎
𝑧= 6
Z∼ N (1, 0)

48 − 50
𝑃(𝑋 < 48) = 𝑃 (𝑍 < ) = 𝑃(𝑍 < −0.33) = 0.3707
6

The probability that a battery lasts less than 48 months is 37.07%


𝜎 6
𝜇𝑋̅ = 𝜇 = 50 𝜎𝑋̅ = = =1
√𝑛 √36

48 − 𝜇𝑋̅ 48 − 50
𝑃(𝑋̅ < 48) = 𝑃 (𝑍 < ) = 𝑃 (𝑍 < ) = 𝑃(𝑍 < −2) = 0.0228
𝜎𝑋̅ 1

∴ The probability that the mean of a sample is less than 48 is 2.28%


5. A high-speed packing machine can be set to deliver between 11 and 13 ounces
of a liquid. For any delivery setting in this range the amount delivered is normally
distributed with mean some amount μ and with standard deviation 0.08 ounce.
To calibrate the machine it is set to deliver a particular amount, many containers
are filled, and 25 containers are randomly selected and the amount they contain
is measured. Find the probability that the sample mean will be within 0.05 ounce
of the actual mean amount being delivered to all containers.

Solution:

X: Delivered quantity of liquid

 µ( X) = media = µ
 σ2 (X) = 0.082 = 0.0064

X ∼ N(µ, 0.0064)

25 containers are filled (sample n = 25)

Y: Amount of liquid measured in the 25 containers

 µ( y) = µ
 σ2 (y) = 0.0064/25=0.000256

Y ∼ N(µ, 0.000256)

IT IS REQUESTED:

P(µ-0.05 ≤ Y ≤ µ+0.05)
(µ−0.05 – µ) (µ+0.05 – µ) (−0.05 ) (+0.05)
P( ≤Z ≤ ) = P( ≤Z≤ ) = P(-3.125 ≤ Z ≤ 3.125)
√0.000256 √0.000256 √0.000256 √0.000256
F(3.125) - F(-3.125) = F(3.125) - [1- F(3.125)] = 2F(3.125)-1

z F(Z)
3.12 0.99910
3.125 0.999115 → 2F(3.125)-1= 2*0.99913-1
3.13 0.99913
P(µ-0.05 ≤ Y ≤ µ+0.05) = 0.99823

∴ The requested probability is 0.99823.