Topic:

Hypothesis
Subject Name:
Logic & Reasoning

Submitted To:
Mr. Tauqir Amir

Submitted By:
Muzammil Ijaz

Roll No:
BsWF18M007

Department:
Social Work

Session: 2018 - 2022

University Of Sargodha
 Outline
 What is a Hypothesis?
 Types of Hypotheses
 How to Write a Hypothesis
 Examples of Hypothesis
 Characteristics Of Hypothesis
 Importance of Hypothesis
 Purpose of Hypothesis
 Developing the Hypothesis
 Forming a Good Hypothesis
 Why we need Hypothesis
 Conclusion
 Reference

What is a hypothesis?

A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a precise, testable statement of what the

researchers predict will be the outcome of the study. This usually involves
proposing a possible relationship between two variables: the independent
variable (what the researcher changes) and the dependent variable (what the
research measures). In research, there is a convention that the hypothesis is
written in two forms, the null hypothesis, and the alternative hypothesis (called
the experimental hypothesis when the method of investigation is an experiment.

Types of Hypotheses
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis states that there is a relationship between the two
variables being studied (one variable has an effect on the other).

It states that the results are not due to chance and that they are significant in
terms of supporting the theory being investigated.

Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis states that there is no relationship between the two variables
being studied (one variable does not affect the other).

It states results are due to chance and are not significant in terms of supporting
the idea being investigated.

Nondirectional Hypothesis
A two-tailed non-directional hypothesis predicts that the independent variable
will have an effect on the dependent variable, but the direction of the effect is
not specified.

E.g., there will be a difference in how many numbers are correctly recalled by
children and adults.

Directional Hypothesis
A one-tailed directional hypothesis predicts the nature of the effect of the
independent variable on the dependent variable.
E.g., adults will correctly recall more words than children.

Can a hypothesis be proven?

Upon analysis of the results, an alternative hypothesis can be rejected or
supported, but it can never be proven to be correct.

We must avoid any reference to results proving a theory as this implies 100%
certainty, and there is always a chance that evidence may exist which could
refute a theory.

How to Write a Hypothesis

1. To write the alternative and null hypotheses for an investigation, you need to
identify the key variables in the study.
The independent variable is manipulated by the researcher and the dependent
variable is the outcome which is measured.

2. Operationalized the variables being investigated.

Operational variables (or operationalizing definitions) refer to how you will
define and measure a specific variable as it is used in your study.

3. Decide on a direction for your prediction. If there is evidence in the literature

to support a specific effect on the independent variable on the dependent
variable, write a directional (one-tailed) hypothesis.
If there are limited or ambiguous findings in the literature regarding the effect of
the independent variable on the dependent variable, write a non-directional
(two-tailed) hypothesis.
4. Write your hypothesis. A good hypothesis is short (i.e. concise) and
comprises clear and simple language.
Examples of Hypothesis
Let’s consider a hypothesis that many teachers might subscribe to: that students
work better on Monday morning than they do on a Friday afternoon (IV=Day,
DV=Standard of work).

Now, if we decide to study this by giving the same group of students a lesson on
a Monday morning and on a Friday afternoon and then measuring their
immediate recall on the material covered in each session we would end up with
the following:

The alternative hypothesis states that students will recall significantly more
information on a Monday morning than on a Friday afternoon.

The null hypothesis states that there will be no significant difference in the
amount recalled on a Monday morning compared to a Friday afternoon. Any
difference will be due to chance or confounding factors.

The null hypothesis is, therefore, the opposite of the alternative hypothesis in
that it states that there will be no change in behavior.

At this point, you might be asking why we seem so interested in the null
hypothesis. Surely the alternative (or experimental) hypothesis is more
important?

Well, yes it is. However, we can never 100% prove the alternative hypothesis.
What we do instead is see if we can disprove, or reject, the null hypothesis.

If we reject the null hypothesis, this doesn’t really mean that our alternative
hypothesis is correct – but it does provide support for the alternative /
experimental hypothesis.

Characteristics of Hypothesis
1. Hypothesis should be clear and precise. If the hypothesis is not clear and
precise, the inferences drawn on its basis cannot be taken as reliable.
2. Hypothesis should be capable of being tested. In a swamp of untestable
hypotheses, many a time the research programmes have bogged down. Some
prior study may be done by researcher in order to make hypothesis a testable
one. A hypothesis “is testable if other deductions can be made from it which,
in turn, can be confirmed or disproved by observation.”
3. Hypothesis should state relationship between variables, if it happens to
be a relational hypothesis.
4. Hypothesis should be limited in scope and must be specific. A
researcher must remember that narrower hypotheses are generally more
testable and he should develop such hypotheses.
5. Hypothesis should be stated as far as possible in most simple terms so
that the same is easily understandable by all concerned. But one must
remember that simplicity of hypothesis has nothing to do with its
significance.
6. Hypothesis should be consistent with most known facts i.e., it must be
consistent with a substantial body of established facts. In other words, it
should be one which judges accept as being the most likely.
7. Hypothesis should be amenable to testing within a reasonable time. One
should not use even an excellent hypothesis, if the same cannot be tested in
reasonable time for one cannot spend a life-time collecting data to test it.
8. Hypothesis must explain the facts that gave rise to the need for
explanation. This means that by using the hypothesis plus other known and
accepted generalizations, one should be able to deduce the original problem
condition. Thus hypothesis must actually explain what it claims to explain; it
should have empirical reference.

Importance of Hypothesis
A hypothesis states what we are looking for. When facts are assembled, ordered
and seen in a relationship they constitute a theory. The theory is not speculation
but is built upon fact. Now the various facts in a theory may be logically
analyzed and relationships other than those stated in the theory can be deduced.
At this point there is no knowledge as to whether such deductions are correct.
The formulation of the deduction however constitutes a hypothesis; if verified it
becomes part of a future theoretical construction.
A hypothesis looks forward. It is a proposition which can be put to a test to
determine its validity. It may seem contrary to or in accord with common sense.
It may prove to be correct or incorrect. In any event however, it leads to an
empirical test. Whatever the outcome, the hypothesis is a question put in such a
way that an answer of some kind can be forthcoming. The function of the
hypothesis is to state a specific relationship between phenomena in such a way
that this relationship can be empirically tested. The basic method of this
demonstration is to design the research so that logic will require the acceptance
or rejection of the hypothesis on the basis of resulting data.

Purpose of Hypothesis :
Guides/gives direction to the study/investigation
Defines Facts that are relevant and not relevant
Suggests which form of research design is likely to be the most appropriate
Provides a framework for organizing the conclusions of the findings
Limits the research to specific area
Offers explanations for the relationships between those variables that can be
empirically tested
Furnishes proof that the researcher has sufficient background knowledge to
enable her/him to make suggestions in order to extend existing knowledge
Structures the next phase in the investigation and therefore furnishes continuity
to the examination of the problem

Developing the Hypothesis

The hypothesis is directly related to a theory but contains operationally defined
variables and is in testable form. Hypotheses allow us to determine, through
research, if our theory is correct. In other words, does prior work experience
result in better grades? When doing research, we are typically looking for some
type of difference or change between two or more groups. In our study, we are
testing the difference between having work experience and not having work
experience on college grades. Every study has two hypotheses; one stated as a
difference between groups and one stated as no difference between groups.

When stated as a difference between groups, our hypothesis would be, “students
with prior work experience earn higher grades than students without prior work
experience.” This is called our research or scientific hypothesis. Because most
statistics test for no difference, however, we must also have a null hypothesis.
The null hypothesis is always written with the assumption that the groups do not
differ. In this study, our null hypothesis would state that, “students with work
experience will not receive different grades than students with no work
experience.”

The null hypothesis is what we test through the use of statistics and is
abbreviated H0. Since we are testing the null, we can assume then that if the
null is not true then some alternative to the null must be true. The research
hypothesis stated earlier becomes our alternative, abbreviated H1. In order to
make research as specific as possible we typically look for one of two
outcomes, either the null or the alternative hypothesis. To conclude that there is
no difference between the two groups means we are accepting our null
hypothesis. If we, however, show that the null is not true then we must reject it
and therefore conclude that the alternative hypothesis must be true. While there
may be a lot of gray area in the research itself, the results must always be stated
in black and white.

Forming
When trying to come up with a good hypothesis for your own research or
experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?

Can your hypothesis be tested?
Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?
Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing
background research on your topic. Once you have completed a literature
review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to
the discussion section in the journal articles you read. Many authors will
suggest questions that still need to be explored.

How to Form a Hypothesis

The first step of a psychological investigation is to identify an area of interest
and develop a hypothesis that can then be tested. While a hypothesis is often
described as a hunch or a guess, it is actually much more specific. A hypothesis
can be defined as an educated guess about the relationship between two or more
variables.
For example, a researcher might be interested in the relationship between study
habits and test anxiety.

The researcher would propose a hypothesis about how these two variables are
related, such as "Test anxiety decreases as a result of effective study habits."

In order to form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

Start by collecting as many observations about something as you can.

Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
After you have developed some possible hypotheses, it is important to think of
ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through
experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

Why We need Hypotheses:

You use hypothesis testing after you have gathered sufficient data about a
process or phenomenon and used it to form a hypothesis explaining the data and
enabling you to predict an outcome under other conditions. Then you must test
your hypothesis by creating other conditions under which failure to produce its
predicted result will prove it false or weaken it. If your hypothesis is not
falsifiable in this way it cannot be tested and if it cannot be tested, it is not
science. Carry out the test of your hypothesis under the new conditions, gather
new data and determine whether the data strengthened or weakened your
hypothesis.
Conclusion
The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration. It represents what
researchers expect to find in a study or experiment. In some cases, the original
hypothesis will be supported and the researchers will find evidence supporting
their expectations about the nature of the relationship between different
variables. In other situations, the results of the study might fail to support the
original hypothesis.

Even in situations where the hypothesis is unsupported by the research, this

does not mean that the research is without value. Not only does such research
help us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one
another, but it also helps us develop new hypotheses that can then be tested in
future research.

Reference:
Haidt, J. (2015). The Happiness Hypothesis: Putting Ancient Wisdom to the
Test of Modern Science. New York, NY: Random House.

Editors-in-Chief, H. (2008). A Word About Hypothesis. Hypothesis, 1(1).

doi:10.5779/hypothesis.v1i1.1

https://www.statisticssolutions.com/hypothesis-testing/

https://www.cell.com/abstract/S0092-8674(08)00953-7

https://www.simplypsychology.org/what-is-a-hypotheses.html