BUSINESS STATISTICS ANALYTICS

ASSIGNMENT 1: Is India a Regional Superpower

Submitted By:

Prashant Kumar(P40193)
Sumedh Rajendra Ukey(P40208)
Mohnish Jagdish Parewal(P40187)
Pravin Ankush Jadhav (P40195)
Saurabh Jivan Sawale(p40205)

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 1. Introduction:
1.1 Indian Sub-Continent

Indian Subcontinent, Geographically, is the peninsular region in south-central Asia delineated by

the Himalayas in the north, the Hindu Kush in the west, and the Arakanese in the east. This region
consists of 6 countries:

India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

It is largely a distinct entity in terms of culture, politics and geology.

Indian subcontinent is a natural physical landmass in South Asia, geologically the dry-land portion of
Indian Plate, which has been relatively isolated from the rest of Eurasia. Given the difficulty of passage
through the Himalayas, the sociocultural, religious and political interaction of the Indian subcontinent
has largely been through the valleys of Afghanistan in its northwest, the valleys of Manipur in its east,
and by maritime routes. More difficult but historically important interaction has also occurred through
passages pioneered by the Tibetans. These routes and interactions have led to spread of Buddhism out
of Indian subcontinent into other parts of Asia, while Islamic expansion arrived here through Afghanistan
and to its coasts through the maritime routes.

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1.2 What is Superpower-

A superpower is a state with a dominant position characterized by its extensive ability to exert
influence or project power on a global scale. This is done through the combined-means of
economic, military, technological and cultural strength as well as diplomatic and soft power
influence. Traditionally, superpowers are preeminent among the great powers.
It is an ability, skill, or power that someone possesses that is above or beyond the normal or
established maximum ability of other people.

1.3 What is Regional Power?

Regional Power is defined as a state belonging to a geographically defined region, dominating this region
in economic and military terms, able to exercise hegemonic influence in the region and considerable
influence on the world scale, willing to make use of power resources and recognized or even accepted as
the regional leader by its neighbour.
According to The German Institute Of Global and Area Studies, A regional power is a state:

• That is part of a region which is geographically, economically and political ideationally delimited
• Which articulates the pretension of a leading position in the region (self-conception);
• Which influences in a significant way the geopolitical delimitation and the political ideational
construction of the region;
• Which displays the material (military, economic, demographic), organizational (political) and
ideological resources for a regional power projection;
• Which is economically, politically and culturally interconnected with the region;
• Which truly has great influence in regional affairs (activities and results);
• Which exerts this influence also (and more and more) by means of regional governance
structures;
• Which defines the regional security agenda in a significant way;
• Whose leading position in the region is recognized or at least respected by other states inside
and outside of the region, especially by other regional powers;

1.4 Indicators of Regional Power

There are various indicators which should be taken into account when we want to analyse whether a
country is a regional power or not.

Boundaries
Which is the geographical reference region of the supposed regional power?
o Indicators: official documents, press coverage, survey data etc.
•What are the economic boundaries of the region?
o Indicators: trade and investment flows, border crossing.
•What are the political-ideational boundaries of the region?
oIndicators: membership in regional organizations, official documents, press coverage, survey data
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etc.

Leadership pretension/claim
•Is there an articulated and documented claim for regional leadership?
oIndicators: official documents, elite survey data in the supposed regional power.
oIndicators: Perception of this claim in other countries in the region and outside of the region; official
documents, elite survey data, press coverage etc.

Delimitation
•Does the putative regional power have a significant influence on the geopolitical delimitation and the
political-ideational construction of the region?
oIndicators: construction of regional organizations (inclusion/exclusion; strategic position of regional
power, process of negotiations)
oIndicators: official discourse of regional power, regional charters (influence of regional power)

Resources
•Does the putative regional power have sufficient economic power resources?
o Indicators: GDP, GDP per capita, R/D as % GDP
•Does the putative regional power have sufficient military power resources?
oIndicators: relative military power (strengths of the armed forces, equipment) in the region.
oIndicators: power projection in the region (participation in international military missions, weapon
systems / projection capabilities).
oIndicators: power projection outside the region (participation in international military missions,
weapon systems / projection capabilities).
•Does the putative regional power have sufficient demographic power resources?
o Indicators: population, working age population, projection 2020.
•Does the putative regional power have sufficient ideological power resources?
oIndicators: attraction in other countries (surveys, foreign students, diffusion of culture).
•Does the putative regional power have sufficient political-organizational power resources?
o Indicator: stability of political institutions, consensus in political elite.

Regional Embeddedness
•Is the putative regional power economically interconnected?
oIndicators: trade statistics (participation in regional trade, bilateral trade patterns), investment flows
(participation in regional investment, bilateral investment flows)
•Is the putative regional power politically interconnected?
• Indicators: size of the embassies of the states in the region in the corresponding regional power,
influence in regional political organizations
o Is the putative regional power culturally interconnected?
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 • Indicators: language training, foreign students, media, influence on cultural trends

Influence in regional affairs

• Does the putative regional power have great influence in regional affairs?
o Indicators: Positions or influence over decisions in different regional policy areas.
Influence over regional governance structures
• Does the putative regional power have great influence over regional governance
structures? o Indicators: Shape of regional organizations
o Indicators: Positions and influence over decision in regional governance structures (examples).

Regional security agenda

• Does the putative regional power have great influence over the regional
security agenda? o Indicators: Is there a regional security agenda
(documents, organizations).
o Indicators: Influence over regional agenda (documents, organizations).

Representation of regional interests in international forums

• Does the putative regional power represent regional interest in international
forums? o Indicators: Negotiations in international organizations (document, press
coverage);
o Indicators: Agenda setting in international politics (forcing topics of regional interest).

2. Methodology Adopted

Firstly, data of different variables is collected for the countries to be studied from the various sources
such as “http://databank.worldbank.org”,” http://www.gapminder.org” etc.
Descriptive statistics approach is used to describe the basic features of the data in this study because it
provides simple summaries about the sample and the measures.
It gives researchers the ability to look at whatever they are studying in so many various aspects and can
provide a bigger overview as opposed to other forms of research. One of the main benefits of descriptive
research is that fact that it uses both quantitative and qualitative data in order to find the solution
to whatever is being studied. This in turn can help to describe and give an answer to certain life
experiences.
We have used Graphics analysis and basic statistical approach to analyse the data of different variables
of countries and findings are compared to conclude the result.

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 3. Variables
3.1 Economic Variables

1. GDP PPP- It is one of the primary indicators used to evaluate a country's economy and can be
calculated in market exchange terms and in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. A country’s
GDP at PPP takes into consideration the relative costs of local goods and services produced in a country
valued at prices of the United States.
Purchasing power parity (PPP) compares how many goods and services an exchange-rate-adjusted unit
of money can purchase in different countries. Nominal GDP shows the total productive output of a
country, while PPP is an applied doctrine of the comparative value of money in different countries.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is measured by finding the values (in USD) of a basket of consumer
goods that are present in each country (such as pineapple juice, pencils, etc.). If that basket costs $100
in the US and $200 in the United Kingdom, then the purchasing power parity exchange rate is 1:2.
2. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Net Inflows - FDI net inflows are the value of inward direct investment
made by non-resident investors in the reporting economy.
3. Foreign Exchange Reserve - Foreign Exchange Reserves are assets held by a central government or
other monetary authority, usually in various reserve currencies. The main purpose of holding foreign
exchange reserves is to make international payments and hedge against exchange rate risks. It is critical
to support imports and exports, which are necessary to gain access to resources and to create additional
demand for goods and services. Without the ability to trade in different currencies, companies'
prospects would be limited and global economic growth would suffer.

3.2 Social Variables

1. Human Development Index - Human development index is a summary measure of average

achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable
and have a decent standard of living. The HDI was created to emphasize that people and their capabilities
should be the ultimate criteria for assessing the development of a country, not economic growth alone.
The health dimension is assessed by life expectancy at birth, the education dimension is measured by
mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for
children of school entering age. The standard of living dimension is measured by gross national income
per capita. The HDI uses the logarithm of income, to reflect the diminishing importance of income with
increasing GNI. The scores for the three HDI dimension indices are then aggregated into a composite
index using geometric mean
2. Poverty- Poverty was first defined by the UN as anyone who earns less than $1 a day. This was revised
to $1.25 a day to reflect rising commodity prices.

3.3 Military Power

Military power potential consists in the resources that a nation-state can mobilize against other
nation-states for purposes of military deterrence, defence, and war.

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3.4 Diplomacy or Soft Power Indicators

1. International Organisations and Groupings – International groupings like ADB,ASEAN (as dialogue
partner), BIMSTEC, BRICS or G5(Grouping of 5 emerging countries), G-15, G-20, G-24, G-77. These
organizations hepls in gaining soft power on regional countries.

4. Analysis of Countries on Different Variables

4.1 GDP (PPP) in Billion

Years Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
2009
340.9 4.0 4903.0 49.6 696.2 154.4
2010
364.1 4.6 5381.7 52.6 715.7 168.8
2011
395.7 5.0 5782.0 55.5 750.7 186.8
2012
429.6 5.4 6214.5 59.3 2.0K 207.8
2013
463.4 5.6 6727.4 62.8 841.2 218.6
2014
500.8 6.0 7362.6 67.8 897.2 233.8
2015
539.3 6.5 8036.3 70.8 949.7 248.1
2016
584.0 7.1 8787.9 72.0 1013.2 262.1
2017
638.4 7.6 9596.8 79.2 1091.3 276.2
2018
704.2 7.9 10498.5 86.1 1176.5 291.5

GDP PPP(Current International $, Year-2009-2018)

12000.0

10000.0

8000.0

6000.0

4000.0

2000.0

0.0K
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

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Among the regional countries of the Indian subcontinent, GDP of India is almost 1740 times that of Bhutan
and 9 times to that of Pakistan which indicate that India is biggest economy in the region in terms of GDP
(PPP).

4.2 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Net Inflow

Advantages for the foreign country include infusion of foreign capital, increases in revenue, development of
new industries, and the ability to learn from foreign investors.

Years Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

2009
0.90 0.02 35.58 0.04 2.34 0.40
2010
1.23 0.08 27.40 0.09 2.02 0.48
2011
1.26 0.03 36.50 0.09 1.33 0.96
2012
1.58 0.02 24.00 0.09 0.86 0.94
2013
2.60 0.02 28.15 0.07 1.33 0.93
2014
2.54 0.02 34.58 0.03 1.87 0.89
2015
2.83 0.01 44.01 0.05 1.62 0.68
2016
2.33 0.01 44.46 0.11 2.49 0.90
2017
2.15 -0.02 39.97 0.20 2.95 1.37

FDI Net Inflow (In Billion US$)

50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-5.00

Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

India’s FDI inflow has shown an increase since 2013 with the only exception in year 2017 which shows the
acceptance of India as a place for investment. It is 78 times the investment in Maldives and also it is
significantly very much greater than the other countries in the Indian Subcontinent which indicates the
dominance of India in Foreign Direct Investment.

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4.3 Foreign Exchange Reserve

High Forex reserve is an indicator of stability of an economy against the external economic shocks. India has
the highest forex reserve when compared to the countries of the subcontinent. In 2017, India’s forex reserve
reached it’s highest value.
Foreign Exchange Reserves (in $ Bn)

Year India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal Bhutan

2008 280 15 5 3.5 2 0.75

2010 260 10 10 4.5 2.5 1

2012 260 12.5 7.5 5.8 3.5 0.9

2014 270 4 15 6.2 5.2 1.2

2016 361 22.03 32.28 6 8.74 1.27

2017 412 18.45 33.43 7.95 8.5 1.20

As shown in the above India’s foreign reserve in 296 times of Bhutan and 22 times of Pakistan. Therefore,
India has highest foreign exchange reserve at present.

Chart Title
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal Bhutan

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017

As shown in graph India’s foreign reserve in much higher than other countries and more importantly it is
increasing at an increasing rate whereas other countries reserves are almost constant.

Global decline in the price of petroleum resulted in sharp fall in government’s petroleum expenditure. It
brought down the overall current account deficit and saved a large amount of dollars.
Post 2008 subprime crisis, investors’ world over lost faith in the western economies and large amount of
investment through Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) came to India and many developing countries. Low
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rate of interest by Federal Reserve Bank (USA) further contributed to the inflow of dollars.
Moreover, government post 2014 has begun structural reforms such as opening up the economy by allowing
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in various sectors such as defence, multi brand retail and so on. This has
attracted investment in these sectors from the foreign investors.
4.4 Human Development Index (HDI)
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic (composite index) of life expectancy, education, and per
capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country
scores higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the GDP per capita is higher.
The HDI was developed by Pakistani economist Mahbub ul Haq and Indian economist Amartya Sen which
was further used to measure the country's development by the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP).
The 2010 Human Development Report introduced an Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI).
While the simple HDI remains useful, it stated that "the IHDI is the actual level of human development
(accounting for inequality)", and "the HDI can be viewed as an index of 'potential' human development (or
the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality)".

Gross
Life National
Human Expectancy Expected years Income(GNI)
Development at Birth of Mean years of per capita
Index(HDI (years) Schooling(years) Schooling(years) (PPP $) SDG
Rank Country Value) SDG 8.3 SDG4.3 SDG 4.6 8.5
130 INDIA 0.64 68.8 12.3 6.4 6353
150 PAKISTAN 0.562 66.6 8.6 5.2 5311
76 SRI LANKA 0.77 75.5 13.9 10.9 11326
136 BANGLADESH 0.608 72.8 11.4 5.8 3677
149 NEPAL 0.574 70.6 12.2 4.9 2471
134 BHUTAN 0.612 70.6 12.3 3.1 8065

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1 2 3 4 5

Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4 Series5 Series6

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Owing to its massive size and structural problems in the economy, India has not been able to perform well
on this index. Sri Lanka has topped the list in this Index.

4.5 Poverty
Poverty is the scarcity or the lack of a certain amount of material possessions or money. Poverty is a
multifaceted concept, which may include social, economic, and political elements.

COUNTRY <$ 1.90

INDIA 21.2

PAKISTAN 3.9

SRI LANKA 0.8

BANGLADESH 14.8

BHUTAN 1.5

NEPAL 15

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We observe that there is a steep decrease in poverty percentage for India from 2008. This could be attributed
to government schemes launched to alleviate poverty like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment
Guarantee Programme (MGNREGP which was launched in 2006) , Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana( then Indira
Awas Yojana) etc. Government has promised to double the income of farmers by 2022.If India follows similar
trend ,then we can expect India to overtake Srilanka and Bhutan in terms of poverty by 2020.

4.6 Military Power

Table- Military Power

Details India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal Bhutan

Strength(million) 2.9 0.919 0.225 0.3 0.157 0.0007
Defense Expenditure 4 0.7 0.159 0.15 0.021 0.01
(billion$)
Land Tanks 6464 2924 534 102 0 0
Power
Towed Artillery 7414 3278 0 154 120 0
Armored Fighting 6704 2828 942 571 1480 10
Vehicles
Air Total Aircrafts 2086 923 166 69 22 4
Power
Helicopters 646 306 61 45 18 2
Naval Aircraft Carriers 2 0 0 0 - -
Power
Frigates 14 10 6 0 - -
Submarines 14 5 0 0 - -
ICBMs yes - - - - -
Nuclear Bombs 110 120 0 0 0 0

India is a huge country surrounded by sea on two sides and mammoth Himalayas on the other. This massive
geographical spread provides ample resources but require a robust defence mechanism as well. Indian
defence includes the three primary wings-Indian Army, Indian Air force and Indian Navy.

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 Total Armed Forces

Among the countries of the subcontinent, India has the largest number of army personnel, close to 4 million
(including the paramilitary forces. In terms of land power India is unmatched-owing more than six thousand
tanks, it completely surpasses the armies of Pakistan while others cannot even be compared to India. Similarly
India is way ahead of other countries in air force and navy, as the data suggests.
India not only defends its own country but provide security to the neighbouring countries. India-Bhutan
Friendship Treaty 2007 is just one example which shows how India feels obliged to help the small countries
against external threat. Similarly, India is the largest contributor to the United Nations Peacekeeping Force
and it is involved in ensuring peace in Sudan, Libya, Congo, Haiti and so on.

4.7 International Organisations and Groupings

India has been very active in engaging with other countries not just bilaterally but through various multilateral
organizations. The kind of engagement that India has maintained in various international groupings allows it
to voice its concern over the various issues and to protect its own interest.
Members of International Organizations

International BRICS G20 G15 G24 G77 BIMSTEC ADB OIC

organizations
India Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Bangladesh No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bhutan No No No No Yes Yes Yes No
Pakistan No No No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Nepal No No No No Yes Yes Yes No
Sri Lanka No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No

India being a part of number of international organizations is also able to exercise its influence on countries
which are in far away as well as which are in immediate vicinity.

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5. Conclusion
In the public and popular media, India’s status as an emerging economy has inevitably and, perhaps
mistakenly, translated in to discussion of India as an emerging power (Cohen 2001; Buzan 2002; Ganguly
2003; Kapur 2006; Nadkarni 2011; Nayar and Paul 2003).
Scholarly discussions of Indian foreign policy point out limitations on Indian power, despite its
disproportionate capability relative to its neighbours, which include internal conflicts, instability in
neighbours, and the on-going rivalry with Pakistan (Mitra and Schöttli 2007). The implication of these
analyses is that India remains a regional power, despite these challenges.
From the above discussed variables, we see that India leads disproportionately in 5 variables out of the 7
variables. In Human Development Index and Poverty, India lags behind.
India is a huge country and developing at a very fast pace. All the countries falling in this league are
facing twin problems of sustainable development and rising inequality. India is certainly no exception.
The poverty percentage in India is falling quite rapidly and by 2020 we can expect it to reduce to a
significant low percentage.
Now, If we are asked about whether India is a regional power or not then we on the basis of our analysis
can say that yes, Indian is a regional superpower.

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