2

Transportation Research Part A 88 (2016) 175–194
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Transportation Research Part A

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tra
An impact analysis of traffic image information system on

driver travel choice
Hooi Ling Khoo ⇑, K.S. Asitha
Department of Civil Engineering, Lee Kong Chian Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR), Building KB, Level 8, Room FE 17
(2), Jalan Sungai Long, Bandar Sungai Long, 43000 Kajang, Malaysia
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: A driver is one of the main components in a transportation system that influences the
Received 9 June 2014 effectiveness of any active demand management (ADM) strategies. As such, the under-
Received in revised form 24 March 2016 standing on driver behavior and their travel choice is crucial to ensure the successful
Accepted 31 March 2016
implementation of ADM strategies in alleviating traffic congestion, especially in city
centres. This study aims to investigate the impact of traffic information dissemination
via traffic images on driver travel choice and decision. A relationship of driver travel choice
Keywords:
with respect to their perceived congestion level is developed by an integrated framework
Route choice
Departure time choice
of genetic algorithm–fuzzy logic, being a new attempt in driver behavior modeling. Results
Level of congestion show that drivers consider changing their travel choice when the perceived congestion
Fuzzy logic level is medium, in which changing departure time and diverting to alternative roads are
Genetic algorithm two popular choices. If traffic congestion escalates further, drivers are likely to cancel their
trip. Shifting to public transport system is the least likely choice for drivers in an auto-
dependent city. These findings are important and useful to engineers as they are required
to fully understand driver (user) sensitivity to traffic conditions so that relevant active
travel demand management strategies could be implemented successfully. In addition,
engineers could use the relationships established in this study to predict drivers’ response
under various traffic conditions when carrying out modeling and impact studies.
Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Drivers’ decision to travel could be influenced by information about on-the-road traffic conditions. Studies have shown
that upon receiving congestion information, drivers are likely to change their departure time (Raub, 2003; Khoo and Ong,
2011) or divert to alternative routes (Bonsall, 1992; Yim et al., 2002; Wardman et al., 1997), in order to enjoy travel time
saving and stress-free driving. Such understanding has enabled the deployment of various active demand management
strategies (ADM) that deliver real time traffic information, with the aim of influencing drivers’ travel choice so that travel
demand can be well managed to reduce traffic congestion. These strategies intend to redistribute travel demand to lesser
congested time of the day and routes, or reduce overall vehicle trips to achieve operational objectives, such as reducing
congestion and delay, decreasing emission, improving safety, and maximizing system efficiency (FHWA, 2013).
Traditionally, traffic information is disseminated via Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) which utilizes tools
such as variable message sign (VMS), radio, television, or website. Nevertheless, with the advent of smart phone technology
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +60 3 9086 0288; fax: +60 3 9019 8868.
E-mail address: khoohl@utar.edu.my (H.L. Khoo).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2016.03.014
0965-8564/Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
176 H.L. Khoo, K.S. Asitha / Transportation Research Part A 88 (2016) 175–194
and its applications (apps) that facilitate voice and data communication, the ways of disseminating traffic information have
undergone revolution. Many smart phone applications (apps) are developed to broadcast real time traffic information and/or
provide travel advice and navigation guidance to travelers. Generally, these apps could be divided into three categories, i.e.
traffic image apps, travel time apps, and route guidance apps. Traffic image apps allow drivers to obtain real time traffic
information by accessing an impressive array of traffic images captured via CCTVs mounted along the network corridor.
Through these images, drivers are able to check traffic conditions on their preferred routes and make necessary adjustments
to avoid congestion. For example, traffic apps such as MyEyes Traffic (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (Chew, 2010)), Penang Bridge
Traffic Cam (Penang, Malaysia (White Lion Technology, 2013)), JamCam (England, United Kingdom (Exploding Phone, 2013)),
and NYEyes Traffic (New York, USA (Chew, 2009)), are some of the popular apps in this category. In addition to just showing
the traffic images, some apps provide additional advisory information to users. For example, Traffic Wales (Wales, United
Kingdom (Parsons, 2013)) has a Traffic Alert section where all the latest news (such as road closure due to events or road
work) and updates (such as incidents) are reported and displayed. Furthermore, detailed advisory information on delay is
provided in which reason of delay and estimated waiting time is given. It also allows users to share images via social media
(e.g. Facebook) or email. The travel time apps deliver traffic information by providing estimated travel time (or travel delay)
on the road section. For example, Beat The Traffic Apps (Pelmorex Media, 2016) provides the color bar to show the traffic
delay information. The route guidance apps such as Waze (SC Cyberworld, 2013) provide real time route guidance to trav-
elers in order to avoid traffic congestion. It suggests alternative routes to users when they encounter delay besides allowing
additional traffic information (such as accident, vehicle break down, or weather conditions) to be shared among the users.
Other transport related apps provide information on parking lot availability (ITS America, 2014) (e.g. Parking Mate, Primo-
Spot, ParkMobile, ParkMe); ridesharing (e.g. Real-time Ridesharing); fuel consumption (e.g. Gas Hog, GasBuddy); and transit
information (e.g. Anystop, Matemate, Roadify, iTrans, and Transit). These apps are compatible for both Android phones and
iPhones. While some apps are for free downloading, some are chargeable.
Traffic information dissemination via smart phone apps has significant advantage over conventional tools, as it provides
more convenience and flexibility to drivers in obtaining traffic information. With the apps, travelers are able to check traffic
information at any time and on a wider network, unlike VMS which can only be installed at certain hotspot locations (due to
site limitation and budget constraint) and thus provide localized traffic information. As such, VMS provides only en-route
information while its effectiveness is heavily dependent on its location (preferably at the roadway bifurcation point).
Travelers have limited response choice in which they can only divert to the prescribed alternative road and yet are uncertain
of traffic conditions on the alternative roads. Such uncertainty has reduced travelers’ willingness to divert (Khoo and Ong,
2011). As opposed to VMS, traffic image apps provide network-wide traffic information since CCTVs are installed along
the roadways for traffic monitoring purposes. As a result, drivers have better understanding on the overall traffic conditions,
which enables both pre-trip and en-route decision making. Having known that the usual routes are congested before depar-
ture, drivers have more choices in response. Drivers may decide to change their departure time, or choose to use alternative
roads, or cancel trip. While en-route, drivers could decide whether to divert upon evaluating traffic conditions on alternative
roads. The likeliness to divert will increase if drivers are convinced that traffic conditions are better on the alternative roads.
Compared to commercial radio, traffic apps allow drivers to access traffic information almost 24/7 with short update inter-
val, thus helping travelers to avoid non-recurrent traffic congestion (such as accident or vehicle breakdown) during off-peak
hours. In addition, traffic information could be widely disseminated if travelers share the information obtained via social
media.
Despite different types of traffic information apps, the traffic image apps still remain as one of the popular apps in the
market. In fact, many authorities in the world have preference to broadcast the traffic condition via uploading the CCTV
images. This might due to the reason that the CCTV images are already available in the database of the traffic control center
(for traffic monitoring and surveillance purpose). Hence, they could be broadcasted at minimal cost by fully utilizing the data
available. In addition, the technology requirement to upload these images is low (or simple). This would benefit the cities
which have little advanced computing technology and experts. If travel time apps or route guidance apps were to be used,
advanced computing technology is required to process the real time traffic data (from detectors or CCTV images) into travel
time or guidance information. This might incur additional cost to the authorities and pose certain level of challenges to some
cities. Nevertheless, there are limited studies that look into the impact of delivering traffic information in images format to
the drivers. Would the drivers understand the underlying message deliver through CCTV footages? What kind of response
would they make in their travel plan upon seeing these images? These research questions are answered in this study by
understanding how the driver perceived the congestion level based on the images and establishing a relationship between
the perceived congestion levels and their intention to adjust travel choices. The relationship defines the evolution of driver
travel choice in respect to the change of traffic congestion level. This study will first investigate how the drivers perceive
congestion levels based on traffic images to reveal whether they understand the underlying message delivered through
images. To do this, an opinion survey is carried out to classify traffic congestion levels in a scale of 1–6, representing the
degree of congestion (from free flow to heavy congestion). Subsequently, the study looks into the drivers’ response to the
images by travel choices or travel plan changes, i.e. do nothing (travel as usual), change departure time, divert to alternative
route, shift to alternative mode (or public transport), and cancel trip. An integrated framework of genetic algorithm (GA)
with fuzzy logic (FL) is adopted as the analysis method, in order to establish the relationship of drivers’ perceived congestion
level with their stated travel choice. Fuzzy logic is chosen due to its capability to represent imprecise knowledge that is
prevalent in human concept formation and reasoning, while genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the membership
H.L. Khoo, K.S. Asitha / Transportation Research Part A 88 (2016) 175–194 177
functions. The findings of the study are important and useful to engineers in order to fully understand drivers’ (users’)
sensitivity to traffic conditions so that appropriate active travel demand management strategies could be implemented
successfully. Furthermore, the methodology proposed in this study investigates the effectiveness of traffic information
dissemination in the form of traffic images, whereby a study of this nature is yet to be carried out to date.
This paper is divided into several sections. Section 1 provides the background study and the needs for this research.
Section 2 presents the literature review on several related topics such as the effectiveness of conventional traffic information
tool, traffic image analysis, impact of smartphone apps on travel behavior and the application of fuzzy logic in travel behavior
modeling. Section 3 presents the study area where the questionnaire survey is carried out, i.e. the Klang Valley region.
Section 4 presents the methodology adopted in this study, in which the formulation of the stated preference questionnaire
survey form is outlined. Also deliberated in detail in Section 4 is the genetic algorithm cum fuzzy logic (GA–FL) framework.
Section 5 presents the results and discussions, while Section 6 discusses the limitations of the study. Lastly, Section 7
presents the conclusion of the study.
2. Literature review
This section is sub-divided into four parts in which the first part presents the review of past studies on the driver behavior
response to the traffic information received via various conventional tools such as radio, VMS and TV. The second part
presents the past studies on traffic images analysis and evaluation. The third part reviews the role of smartphone technology
in influencing travel behavior. The fourth part presents the review of fuzzy logic as the methodology adopted in this study
and its application in travel behavior modeling. It is anticipated that the review could provide an overall picture of the travel
behavior and analysis as well as the limitations that provoke the needs of this study.
2.1. Impact of ATIS on travel behavior
Conventionally, transportation authorities utilized Advanced Traffic Information System (ATIS) such as radio, television,
websites, and variable message signs (VMS) to deliver up-to-date traffic information to travelers, with the aim of changing
their traveling behavior (i.e. route, mode, and departure time choice). Numerous research efforts were carried out to inves-
tigate the drivers’ awareness of these ATIS tools and its effectiveness in changing driver traveling behavior in Europe and
North America as well as in Asia. Table 1 summarizes the findings from these studies. It was observed that drivers’ willing-
ness to change their traveling behavior is influenced by the types of ATIS tools and their characteristics (e.g. VMS content and
location), apart from drivers’ socio-demographic and trip characteristics. Nevertheless, the limitation of these studies is that
the conditions under which the travel behavior changes in choices will take place are undetermined. The commonly cited
situation to describe traffic condition is ‘‘congestion”, which is inaccurately defined without details on levels of service or
perceived congestion levels. Furthermore, the percentage or range of percentage of travel choice changes are static values
(i.e. a single value or a range of value at an assumed congestion level) which has limitations in showing the full course of
drivers’ response in conjunction with perceived traffic conditions.
2.2. Studies on traffic image analysis
Drivers evaluate traffic conditions shown by the traffic images in order to decide on how to change travel plans to avoid
congestion. Such evaluation is found to have linkage with traffic flow parameters, namely speed and flow (Pongpaibool et al.,
2007; Lu and Cao, 2003; Thianniwet et al., 2011). Further to this, drivers’ perception of traffic congestion levels might not be
consistent with the level of service (LOS) defined by the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) (TRB, 2000). Choocharukul et al.
(2004) queried drivers to evaluate traffic conditions shown in 12 video clips and discovered that their perceptions
mismatched the prescribed levels of service classified in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) (TRB, 2000). Drivers have
lower tolerance to good traffic condition (level of service A) and higher tolerance to heavily congested condition (level of
service F); Pongpaibool et al. (2007) adopted the same approach in which a 220-min length of video images are shown to
10 volunteers who are told to evaluate their perceived traffic condition. Velocity and volume are found to be appropriate
indicators to describe traffic conditions, while difference in taking single lane or multiple lanes as analysis reference was
insignificant. Posawang et al. (2009) steered a web survey based on video images captured on a highway, and discerned that
drivers classified traffic conditions into three categories, i.e. light, heavy, and jammed, rather than six categories in HCM;
Fang and Pecheux (2009) introduced six new levels of service, with the existing HCM’s level of services A and B merged into
a single level, and the existing HCM’s level of service split into two. Thianniwet et al. (2011) classified the perceived conges-
tion levels based on velocity of mobile sensors (such as smartphones) and concluded that travelers perceive three distinct
levels of congestion, i.e. light, heavy, and jammed. While these studies are useful to provide understanding on how drivers
perceive congestion levels based on traffic flow conditions, information on how drivers will alter their travel choices or plans
upon perceiving traffic congestion are unspecified. As such, the relationship between drivers’ perceived traffic condition and
travel choice is unknown and unestablished. Therefore, engineers are unaware on whether traffic conditions influence
drivers’ travel choices. As a result, these studies provide only partial information on driver behavior and shall be deemed
insignificant for travel demand management studies.
Table 1
Summary of findings from past research efforts on traffic information dissemination tools.
City Major findings

A. Cities and states in North America and Europe
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US (Peng and Factors affecting VMS awareness:
Guequierre, 2004) Frequency of drivers encountering VMS signboards
Perceive usefulness of VMS information
Trust on information provided (accuracy and reliability)
North East Warrington, UK (Wardman Factors affecting VMS awareness:
et al., 1997) Content of message
Relative journey times in normal conditions
Drivers’ characteristics
Northwestern, Indiana, US (Peeta et al., Factors affecting VMS awareness:
2000) Content of message
Drivers’ economic characteristics
Network spatial knowledge
Confidence in displayed information
Amsterdam, The Netherlands Factors affecting propensity to use radio:
(Emmerink et al., 1996) s Length of trip
s Types of trip
s Drivers’ demographic
s Alternative routes availability
Level of satisfaction with alternative routes, type (toll/highway/streets) and distance
Positive correlation between VMS and radio
Seattle, US (Spyridakis et al., 1991) 97% of drivers preferred commercial radio
The rank of preference of ATIS tools are: radio, VMS, highway advisory radio, TV, phone
There are correlation among TV, radio, and VMS
Females are more likely to receive traffic information from TV, VMS, radio
Drivers are more likely to change their routes from work than from home
Drivers are more likely to divert to known routes compared to unknown routes
Drivers who change route affected by:
s Traffic message
s Traffic congestion
s Time of day
s Weather
s Time pressure
2–4% of drivers are influenced by pre-trip information
Females are more reluctant to alter routes
Austin, Texas, US (Caplice and Older and female driver listen more to radio to obtain traffic information
Mahmassani, 1992) Commuters tend to switch route and departure time choice rather than route choice alone
Females change travel patterns more often than males
Seattle, US (Pierce and Lappin, 2004) 49% of drivers preferred to get information from website
22% of drivers actually use the information obtained from website
There are 6 important factors that affect ATIS effectiveness: regional context, awareness, nature of trips,
information quality, delay, availability of alternative
Eleven States in US (Mannering et al., Factors affecting awareness to traffic information availability:
1995) s Socio-economics
s Habitual travel pattern
s Congestion levels
s Attitude toward technology
Males are less likely to perceive traffic information as important
Drivers with higher income are less likely to view traffic information
Households with higher vehicle ownership are more likely to view traffic information
Paris, France (Yim and Ygnace, 1996) 70% of respondents indicated that they will change route choice
35% of respondents had actually changed their route choice
Los Angeles, US (Abdel-aty et al., 1997) Factors affecting route choice:
s Travel time is not dominant in route choice criterion
s Male is more risk prone and willing to change route
s Commuters value and use pre-trip information more than en-route
s Drivers’ who perceived higher information reliability more prone to route change
s Drivers traveling on longer distance tend to choose alternative roads
Orlando, US (Abdel-Aty and Abdalla, Drivers’ age and income do not affect route diversion
2006) High educated drivers more likely to divert
Qualitative information is more beneficial than quantitative information
Severe weather information increase the compliance with pre-trip and en-route information
Drivers being away from origin or close to destination increase en-route compliance
San Francisco, US (Yim et al., 2002) Percentage of drivers on route choice change: 30–84%
Percentage of drivers on departure time choice change: 13–44%
B. Cities and states in Asia
Tokyo, Japan (Hato et al., 1996) Factors affecting route choice are:
s Intended choice prior to receiving information
s The accuracy of information
s Trip purpose
s Drivers’ familiarity to the network
Table 1 (continued)
City Major findings

Hong Kong, China (Lai and Wong, 2000) This study investigated the driver comprehension of the traffic information presented on VMS in three
formats, i.e. the numerical format, the description format, and the switch-on-light format
It was found that drivers have different comprehension of the formats for presenting traffic information
on VMS, and the message formats can induce biases toward a route in drivers’ decision-making process
Beijing, China (Chen et al., 2008) Route choice depended on traffic situation and driving experience
Drivers tendency of diversion increase with the increase of driving experience
Guongzhou, China (Zheng et al., 2010) 79% of drivers perceive VMS as useful
35% of drivers agreed that VMS could reduce traffic congestion
27% of drivers agreed that VMS could reduce traffic accident
31% of drivers will divert upon receiving queue information
98% of drivers will divert upon receiving traffic congestion information
Taiwan (Chen, 2007) 63% of drivers said that they would divert given the traffic information
81% perceive that VMS is useful
54% satisfy with the information delivered via VMS
However, 63% of drivers are not aware of VMS
Bangkok, Thailand (Choocharukul, Awareness of traffic information availability via VMS is affected by:
2008) s Gender: Female more aware of information
s Age: Elderly more aware of information
s Education level: those with lower education level more aware of information
Route diversion affected by:
s Daily mileage
s Education level
s Age
s Gender
Awareness of VMS is found to be not statistically significant as the direct determinant for stated route
diversion
Bandung, Indonesia (Sutandi, 2008) 4–10% of drivers choose alternative roads
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (Roshandeh An analysis of traffic flow shows that VMS could reduce travel time by 19.7% and the occupancy is
and Che-Puan, 2009) shortened by 5.3%
2.3. Role of smartphone technology in influencing travel behavior
Research on the impact of disseminating traffic information via smartphone is still at an infant stage. To our best knowl-
edge, there are only three latest studies investigating the impact of smartphone technology on travel behavior. Tseng et al.
(2013) investigated the impact of real time traffic information on traveler behavior by using repeated day-to-day revealed
preference observations from a reward experiment. They found that participants who were given access to a smartphone
displaying real time traffic information react to the daily variations in travel times stronger than before. This provides the
evidence that real time traffic information provided via smartphone indeed affects behavior.
Brazil and Caulfield (2013) investigated the impact of providing emission information to travelers on the mode choice
behavior. By combination of journey planning applications with carbon calculators, drivers are informed about the potential
environment impact of each trip they made. Findings show that emissions play a significant role in the respondents’ mode
choice, with reduced associated emissions contributing to enhanced mode utility. Gan (2015) showed that the smartphone
multimodal information could influence driver mode choice as well. Drivers tend to perform mode choice shift when infor-
mation about park-n-ride service, rail transit service and roadway expected congestion delay are delivered via smartphone
apps.
In summary, these studies show that smartphone apps play an important role to deliver traffic information to the driver.
It could deliver individual trip specific information (such as carbon emission estimation as shown in Brazil and Caulfield
(2013)), which could not be carried out with the conventional tool. In addition, it could provide multimodal information that
influences driver mode choice behavior. Nevertheless, these studies had not investigated how real time traffic images and
perceived congestion level could influence travel behavior.
2.4. A brief review of fuzzy set theory and its application in travel behavior studies
The concept of fuzzy sets (Zadeh, 1965) is a mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty. It is used to represent impre-
cise knowledge that is prevalent in human concept formation and reasoning. The theory of fuzzy logic is based upon the
notion of relative graded membership to describe the degree of the element in belonging to certain class or category. Thus,
fuzzy sets have classes with inexplicit and vague boundaries.
Fuzzy inference is the core concept in the fuzzy set theory in which it is a deductive process of formulating mapping from
the given inputs to outputs using fuzzy logic. Mapping provides a basis to derive relationship between inputs and outputs
from which decisions can be made or pattern discerned. The inference process comprises of five components: fuzzification of
input variables, fuzzy operator application, implication, aggregation of outputs, and defuzzification (Dubois and Prade,
1980). Fuzzification is a process to convert crisp inputs into fuzzy inputs according to the degree in which they belong as
specified in the membership function. Membership functions describe the degree of compatibility of the element with a
concept represented by a fuzzy set (Sivanandam et al., 2007). Fuzzy membership functions could be continuous or discrete
functions and take values between 0 and 1. There are various well-defined membership functions such as trapezoids,
triangles, Gaussian, bell-shaped curves, and sigmoid function. The choice of membership function is selected based on the
analyst’s judgment through review of data. As such, the membership function types are not restricted to the above
mentioned functions, in which the analyst could create his/her function that explains the data well.
If there is more than one input variable, fuzzy operator is applied to combine these variables (say a and b) with either AND
operation or the OR operation to obtain a single true value representing its membership to the inputs. Implication derives the
consequence for the antecedent (i.e. the single value computed earlier using fuzzy operator) based on the defined fuzzy rules.
Fuzzy rules or sometimes known as the if/then rules define the linguistic relationship between the antecedent (input) and
consequent (output). The consequent is a fuzzy set represented by a membership function that weighs appropriately the
linguistic characteristics that are attributed to it. Implication is performed for each rule defined and is computed using
AND method (minimum or product). Aggregation is the process in which the fuzzy sets that represent the outputs of each
rule are combined into a single fuzzy set. The methods used in the aggregation are such as maximum, probabilistic OR, and
summation (simply compute the sum of each rule’s output set). Defuzzification is the process to convert a fuzzy set into a
crisp value. Many methods could be adopted to facilitate conversions, such as centroid method, weighted average method,
and mean-max membership. Two types of fuzzy inference systems are available, namely Mamdani and Sugeno (MathWorks,
2012). Both systems have the system components elaborated as above, except that the membership function for Sugeno
model is either linear or constant. Mamdani model does not have such restriction. The advantages of Sugeno model is that
it is computationally efficient and works well with optimization and adaptive techniques, while Mamdani model is more
intuitive and well suited to human input (Sivanandam et al., 2007).
Several past driver perception studies adopted fuzzy logic as the analysis tool. Koutsopoulos et al. (1994) adopted the
fuzzy sets and approximate reasoning to develop and calibrate the route choice models in the presence of traffic information.
They collected the route choice of 10 subjects by simulating the routes on a 2-D simulator which could simulate various
information system. Lu and Cao (2003) employed fuzzy logic to quantify traffic congestion levels from traffic flow informa-
tion. They defined four levels of congestion (i.e. free flow, smooth, unblocked, congested) based on three inputs, i.e. velocity,
flow, and density. For each of the inputs, three membership functions are defined to express its membership degree, i.e. high,
moderate and low. Congestion level is then quantified by an index termed as Level of Congestion (LOC). Pongpaibool et al.
(2007) developed a traffic congestion quantification method in Bangkok using the manually tuned fuzzy logic and adaptive
neuro-fuzzy techniques. They computed the driver perception of traffic congestion level based on vehicle volume and speed.
Results show that both traffic parameters are necessary in order to achieve a better estimate. In addition, there is no differ-
ence found whether the estimate is based on single lane or multi-lane street. Shankar et al. (2012) compared three different
approaches of fuzzy logic to quantify driver perception on traffic congestion level, namely Sugeno, Mamdani models and
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (Anfis). They defined three levels for the input variables density and speed, i.e. high,
medium, and low, and five levels of output perceived congestion level, i.e. free flow, slow moving, mild congestion, heavy
congestion and severe congestion. They found that the Anfis technique is better than the manually tuned fuzzy technique,
and Mamdani model gave better estimate compared to Sugeno model. Vaziri (2002) developed the highway congestion
index based on fuzzy logic as well. Five congestion descriptive variables are used to measure congestion levels, namely travel
speed, travel rate, delay rate, travel rate ratio and delay ratio. Membership functions were defined based on regression model
and characterized the congestion intensity fuzzy values of ‘‘congested” and ‘‘unacceptably congested” on a scale of zero to
one. Lee et al. (2005) adopted the fuzzy set theory to evaluate driver perceived quality of service provided by variable mes-
sage signs (VMS). An index is developed to express the degree of satisfaction based on the investigation of six performance
criteria. These past studies thus support the relevance of fuzzy logic in this study.
3. Study area
The study area chosen is the Klang Valley region, which comprises Kuala Lumpur (the capital of Malaysia) and its neigh-
boring sub-urban cities and towns. This region is located in the state of Selangor, which is the nation’s main industrial and
commercial region. Fig. 1 shows the location of Klang Valley and its sub-urban cities. Over the years, the region has achieved
strong economic growth compared to other states in Malaysia and such performance has attracted migration from other
states. Population in the region has grown from 4 million in 2004 to 7.2 million in 2013 (The Star Online, 2014). Along with
the growth in economy and increase in population size, private vehicle population has also increased rapidly. Use of private
transportation has also increased and the modal split of private vehicles to public transportation has changed from 75%:25%
in 1985 to 79%:21% in 2013 (Land Public Transport Commission, 2014). The increased use of automobiles has resulted in
traffic congestion in the region, causing average traffic speeds on the major roads to reduce to a critical level.
The Integrated Transport Information System (ITIS) established since the year 2004 is one of the means to deliver the
latest traffic information to drivers. However, along with the recent development of various types of traffic information apps,
drivers are now provided with alternative means to access traffic information. These types of apps are now receiving
pronounced attention and are widely preferred, considering that Malaysia is ranked among the top 15 largest Waze commu-
nities out of nearly 200 countries in the world, with about 1.5 million Waze users (SC Cyberworld, 2013). Thus, more apps are
Setapak
Kepong
Ampang
KLCC
Bukit Bintang
Petaling Jaya
Shah Alam
Cheras
Sri Petaling
Kinrara
Fig. 1. Klang Valley region.
developed to disseminate traffic information in the region. For example, MyEyes Traffic (Chew, 2010), was powered by the
Malaysian Highway Authority to allow users to access its CCTV images for the latest traffic information on 22 highways
located in the Klang Valley region. Penang Bridge Traffic Cam (White Lion Technology, 2013) is another similar application
which gives images on Penang Bridge, whereby traffic images are uploaded 24/7 with short interval time. Nevertheless,
additional information is not displayed in these apps apart from the traffic images. Demand of these apps indicates that
drivers desire real time traffic information while making a journey.
4. Methodologies
The modeling of traveler perception and response in this study is carried out in two stages. The first stage involves an
opinion survey to collect drivers’ perception on traffic condition, based on traffic images and their stated travel choice. To
accomplish this, traffic images were recorded from a highway with different traffic conditions, and subsequently a stated
preference survey is formulated. The second stage involves the adoption of an integrated genetic algorithm with fuzzy logic
(GAFL) framework to model and evaluate travelers’ perceived traffic congestion and its relationship to their travel choice.
The following sub-sections provide the details.
4.1. Traffic images extraction
Video recording was carried out to capture images of various traffic conditions on a highway, i.e. Middle Ring Road II, in
Setapak area, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This road section is a dual 3-lane carriageway with a speed limit of 80 km/h.
A continuous period involving 2 h of recording was carried out several times at two different locations along the highway,
during weekdays and weekends from November 2012 to March 2013. Video footages are then processed in the laboratory to
compute traffic parameters such as flow, speed, and density at every 30 s interval. Data extraction is carried out
semi-automatically. OpenCV library (EmguCV, 2014) is adopted to assist in traffic flow extraction while density and speed
data is extracted manually.
The average traffic flow is computed by counting the number of vehicles that pass through an imaginary line (set in the
software) during the 30 s interval according to Eq. (1)
PN
n¼1 Q t;n
qt ¼ ð1Þ
Nt
where qt denotes average traffic flow (vehicle per hour per lane), Qt,n denotes the number of vehicles passing through the
imaginary line during time interval t on lane n, and N denotes the total number of lanes.
Two imaginary lines are drawn to coincide with two location (land) markings when the recording is being carried out on
site, in which they are 200 m apart. The times when the vehicle passes through the lines are recorded, and the time
difference is used to compute speed. Video footages are then rolled back to compute the time difference for the second
vehicle and this continues until all vehicles appear during the time interval recording. Average speed is computed as follow:
PN
v t;n
vt ¼ n¼1
ð2Þ
N
where v t is the average travel speed for vehicles (km/h), vt,n denotes vehicle speed during time interval t on lane n, and N
denotes the total number of lanes, and
d
v t;n ¼ ~2 ð3Þ
t n ~t 1n
d is the distance traveled, i.e. 200 m, and ~t 1n and ~t2n are times vehicle n passes through line 1 and line 2 respectively.
Density is computed by having the video footages paused at every 30 s interval and by counting the number of vehicles
that appear in the two imaginary lines which are 200 m apart. The average density is by equation.
PN _
n¼1 Q t;n
kt ¼ ð4Þ
Nd
_
where kt denotes the average density (vehicle/km/lane), Q t;n denotes the number of vehicles captured at interval t on lane n,
and N denotes the total number of lanes, and d is the length of the road segment, i.e. 200 m.
Based on the traffic data extracted, the traffic image snapshots are classified into 6 categories of level of service (LOS) by
referring to the Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 2000). A total of 192 images are selected which consisted of 32 images for
each level of service category.
4.2. Opinion survey
A total of 32 sets of survey forms are formulated in which each survey form has 6 images representing traffic conditions
from LOS A to F. These traffic images are arranged in random sequence in Section I of the survey form. Respondents are
requested to express their opinion based on the traffic conditions shown in the pictures. Six descriptions are provided to
label the traffic conditions to coincide with the level of service: free flow (LOS A), light flow (LOS B), medium flow
(LOS C), mild congestion (LOS D), heavy congestion (LOS E), and severe congestion (LOS F). Based on the perceived traffic
conditions, respondents are asked to choose their responses in terms of route choice, departure time choice, mode choice,
or willingness to cancel trip. It is assumed that the drivers may view these images during peak or off peak hours prior to
making the trip (30 min earlier). Section II of the survey form inquires the socio-economic characteristics and travel pattern
of the respondents. In addition, the respondents are asked about their smart phone usage. Fig. 2 shows a sample of the
questionnaire form.
A team of 10 students are briefed and trained to conduct the surveys at several selected locations, such as petrol stations,
hawker stalls, shopping malls, car parks, and other facilities in the Klang Valley region of Malaysia. The surveys were carried
out for a period of 4 months from October 2013 to December 2013. Target respondent is any traveler who has driving expe-
rience. A total of 2880 answered survey forms were collected in average of 90 answered survey forms for each set. According
to Bluman (2011), a sample size of 384 samples are required for the region with 100 million population in order to produce a
95% confidence level in the analysis. The Klang Valley has a population of 7.2 million (The Star Online, 2014) only, and thus
the sample size of 2880 is more than the required benchmark. Table 2 shows the summary of the characteristics of the
respondents. The group of respondents consist of mainly young adults (72% of them are between 21 and 40 years old), as
they are more IT-savvy and thus would respond to new technology more rapidly. The sampling rate is similar to the sampling
rate of an internet usage survey carried out by the Malaysian Communication and Multimedia Commission (MCMC, 2015).
The Correlation Analysis shows that both distributions are correlated and not independent with the correlation coefficient of
0.976 (comparing to distribution in Year 2013) and 0.966 (comparing to distribution in Year 2014). Both analyses are
statistically significant at 95% confidence level. This shows that it is acceptable to have larger group of young adults when
Fig. 2. An excerpt of survey form.
investigating the IT-related product and technology. The smartphone ownership for the group of respondents interviewed is
41.8%. According to the survey study, the market penetration rate of smartphone in Malaysia is 35% and 51% respectively for
year 2013 and 2014 (Wong, 2014). As such, the group of respondents surveyed is deemed appropriate.
Table 2
Respondent characteristics.
Variables Category Percentage Variables Category Percentage

Gender Male 51.3 Average trip length (per trip) 6 10 km 18.1
Female 48.7 11–20 km 45.3
Age 620 8.9 21–30 km 29.3
21–30 43.3 >30 km 7.3
31–40 29.0 Smart phone ownership Yes 41.8
41–55 13.2 No 58.2
>55 5.6 Frequency of traffica Very frequent (more than once per day) 8.1
Education PMR/SPM 13.1 Information acquisition with Smart Frequent (at least once in 2 days) 12.3
level STPM/Certificate 16.6 Phone Sometimes (at least once a month) 28.4
Diploma 21.2 Infrequent (when needed) 6.5
Degree/ 41.7 Rarely 24.2
Advanced
Diploma Never 20.5
Masters and PhD 7.4
Professional 0.8
Note: A total of 2880 respondents are interviewed.

a
Based on the 1203 samples collected whose answer is Yes for smartphone ownership.
4.3. Data preparation for model calibration and validation
The completed survey forms are processed to extract respondents’ perceived level of congestion and their associated
travel choice. For each picture of each survey form, the average perceived level of congestion is calculated based on the
respondents’ rating (in the scale of 1–6). Driver likeliness to perform route change, departure time change and mode change,
and cancel trips are computed by averaging the percentage of drivers indicating that they would perform such changes given
the traffic condition shown in Eq. (5) as follows:
PJ
j¼1 xrj
Lr ¼ ð5Þ
J
in which
Lr: likeliness to perform changes in r; J: total number of drivers;
r = {Travel as usual (do nothing), Route, Departure time, Mode, Trip canceling}

1; if respondent i choose to perform changes in r
xrj =
0; otherwise
It is important to note that the choice in r is mutually exclusive in which each respondent is allowed to choose one
response type only.
4.4. Cross validation
Cross validation is carried out to calibrate and validate the model parameters. A total of 192 data (32 sets of survey form
with each set consisting of 6 data) is available. The k-fold cross validation is carried out with k = 3. As such, the data is divided
into 3 sets in which each set has 64 data. One of the sets (say Set A) is used for calibration while the remaining sets (say Set B
and Set C) are used for validation purposes. It is then rotated by using Set B for calibration and Set A and Set C for validation.
The average deviation for calibration and validation is then averaged. The parameter values are averaged as well for the final
model.
4.5. The genetic algorithm–fuzzy logic framework
Accuracy of the fuzzy modeling is influenced by its membership function types and their parameter values. Nevertheless,
this piece of information might not be available and is difficult to estimate from data. Rather than choosing the parameters
for the membership functions arbitrarily, these parameters could be optimized based on the input/output data through
training and learning processes. Such training could be carried out by applying the neuro-adaptive learning technique, which
works similarly to that of neural networks. Matlab (MathWorks, 2014) provides the Anfis Toolbox to accomplish parameter
adjustment based on the input/output data. The optimal parameter values are optimized by a gradient vector in which the
best values that provide the least errors will be maintained. Shankar et al. (2012) discovered that the Anfis model has higher
accuracy compared to fuzzy inference model in modeling traveler perception. They showed that with Gaussian bell type of
input, linear output, and 100 epochs, the estimate generates an average deviation as low as 0.01. However, Anfis has
limitations in which users are restricted to choose the types of membership functions and fuzzy inference system types. Only
linear or constant type of membership functions and Sugeno model is allowed. As such, Anfis is not considered in this study.
Genetic algorithm (GA) (Goldberg, 1989) is proposed in this study to optimize the parameter values for membership
functions based on the input data. The optimal parameter values are then entered into the fuzzy logic to model driver
perception and travel choice. Past studies (Herman et al., 2009; Kim et al., 2001; Lambert-Torres et al., 2000) showed that
this is a feasible method as they had attempted to fit the membership function of the fuzzy logic controller by using genetic
algorithm. Nevertheless, the proposed GA–fuzzy logic framework is a new attempt in fitting membership functions for
traveler perception and response. By adopting GA, the flexibility in defining the membership function types for both inputs
and outputs is maintained.
The objective of the genetic algorithm is to find the best values for the membership functions that minimize the model
estimation error shown in Eq. (6).
PN
i¼1 jf i Oi j
AD ¼ ð6Þ
N
where AD denotes the average deviation; fi is the model output; Oi is the observed data; and N is the total number of data.
Decision variables are parameter values for the membership functions in fuzzy logic. For example, 4 parameters need to be
assigned for a trapezoidal membership function, while a triangular function only needs 3 parameters. Constraints need to
be set to ensure that the valid functions are defined. By referring to Fig. 3 as an example, c > a; d > b; g > e and so on to ensure
that the function is valid; and c > b; g > h so that both functions are superimposed at the border. These constraints need to be
set in the algorithm and the values produced are checked to ensure their feasibility.
The genetic algorithm (GA) imitates Darwin’s theory of evolution in which the solutions are represented by population of
strings. These strings are evaluated by their associated objective function values in which the better they are, the more
chance they are chosen to reproduce. In this study, it means that the string that yields a lower average deviation (shown
in Eq. (6)) stands a higher chance to be brought into subsequent iterations. The first step of GA is initialization where the
string is coded. Two encoding methods are available, i.e. binary and integer (Goldberg and Miller, 1995). This study chooses
the binary encoding method in which a string of 0 and 1 is created to represent the solution and each parameter is repre-
sented by a 6 bit string. These created strings are then examined to ensure that they satisfy the constraints.
A conventional GA consists of three main steps: selection, crossover and mutation. The selection step attempts to select
individuals from the population to be parents for crossover. For each iteration, among the feasible strings, those strings with
lower objective function value will be chosen as the parents for crossover. There are many ways to select a better string, for
example, roulette wheel selection (Goldberg, 1989), tournament selection (Goldberg and Miller, 1995) and rank selection
(Gen and Cheng, 1996). This study adopts the roulette wheel selection method. Crossover is the exchange of some portion
of the string between two selected strings. The newly produced strings after the crossover are termed as offspring. Single
point crossover is used in this study to perform the crossover. After the crossover, mutation strategy is carried out. Mutation
means that some features of the feasible string is changed randomly with the aim to maintain diversity of the solutions.
These steps are repeated until the maximum number of iteration is reached and the string with the lowest objective function
value is selected as the solution.
The interaction between GA and fuzzy logic occurs in the objective function evaluation stage. The string is decoded to
obtain parameter values which need to pass the feasibility check before they are passed over to the fuzzy logic model for
evaluation. These parameters for the membership functions are one of the inputs of the fuzzy logic model. A total of 5 fuzzy
logic models are estimated, namely perceived level of congestion (PLOC) model, route choice model, departure time choice
model, trip canceling model, and mode choice model. Although each of these models are optimized and built separately, they
have the same fuzzy logic structure. Three inputs are defined for these models namely density, speed, and flow. For each of
these inputs, three membership functions are defined to represent the traffic condition intensity, i.e. low, medium, and high.
Three membership functions are defined for the PLOC model by referring to the past studies (Posawang et al., 2009;
Thianniwet et al., 2011) that there are three distinct categories of perceived traffic congestion level. Trial-and-error approach
is adopted to determine the number of membership functions for the choice model. The outcome of the two and four
membership functions are inferior to the three membership functions during the testing. This is possibly due to the reason
a d e h
b c f g
Fig. 3. An example.
Table 3
Fuzzy rules.
No. If Then
Density Speed Volume Perceived level of congestion Route choice Departure time choice Mode Choice Trip canceling
1 Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low
2 Low Low Medium Low Low Low Low Low
3 Low Low High Low Low Low Low Low
4 Low Medium Low Low Low Low Low Low
5 Low Medium Medium Low Low Low Low Low
6 Low Medium High Low Low Low Low Low
7 Low High Low Low Low Low Low Low
8 Low High Medium Low Low Low Low Low
9 Low High High Low Low Low Low Low
10 Medium Low Low High Medium Medium Medium Medium
11 Medium Low Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium
12 Medium Low High High Medium Medium Medium Medium
13 Medium Medium Low Medium Low Low Low Low
14 Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Low Low Low
15 Medium Medium High Medium Low Low Low Low
16 Medium High Low Medium Low Low Low Low
17 Medium High Medium Medium Low Low Low Low
18 Medium High High Medium Low Low Low Low
19 High Low Low High Medium Medium High Medium
20 High Low Medium High Medium Medium High Medium
21 High Low High High High Medium High Medium
22 High Medium Low High Medium Medium Medium Medium
23 High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium
24 High Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium
25 High High Low High Medium Medium Medium Medium
26 High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium
27 High High High High Medium High Medium High
that drivers’ decision to change their travel choice could not be simply explained by the two extremities, i.e. low likeliness for
not changing, and high likeliness for changing. The likeliness (probability) of travel choice changes computed by Eq. (5)
shows that there is intermediate probability (between these two extremes) that warrant the need for a medium level. As
such, three membership functions are adopted in the study.
The density takes the range of 0–40 (vehicle/km/lane), speed has a range of 0–150 (km/h), and flow has a range of 0–3000
(vehicle/h/lane). The output of PLOC model is the driver perceived level of congestion which has a range of 1–6 and is defined
by three trapezoidal membership functions. The outputs for other models, i.e. route choice, departure time choice, trip
canceling, and mode choice models, are the likeliness of drivers performing the choice (or travel plan change) which takes
the range of 0–1. The probability is defined by three trapezoidal membership functions representing three levels of likeliness,
i.e. low, medium, and high. A total of 48 parameters need to be optimized for each model. Mamdani inference system is built
and the fuzzy operator defined for AND and OR method is minimum and maximum respectively. The implication and aggre-
gation is defined by minimum and maximum respectively, except the summation is defined for the departure time choice
model. The defuzzification method defined for PLOC model is centroid while the smallest of maximum (MathWorks, 2012)
is selected for the other models. A total of 27 fuzzy rules are defined to describe the relationship between inputs and outputs
which are shown in Table 3.
Matlab (MathWorks, 2014) is employed as the modeling tool to build the models while genetic algorithm is
self-programmed in C language. The interaction between both programs is possible because Matlab provides a stand-
alone C code fuzzy inference system (FIS) that is executable by external applications (i.e. C program). With this capability,
the entire FIS could be created with self-defined membership functions and parameter values, fuzzy rules, fuzzy operator
setting, implication and defuzzification methods. Such flexibility has made the proposed GAFL framework as shown in
Fig. 4 implemented successfully.
5. Results and discussions
This section presents the models developed by implementing the GAFL framework. It will first provide results of model
calibration and validation, followed by the analysis of the models obtained. The relationship of drivers’ travel choice with
respect to perceived congestion levels will then be presented and discussed in details.
5.1. Model calibration and validation
The proposed framework is implemented with the settings for genetic algorithm as follows: population size is 100, max-
imum number of generation is 10, probability of crossover and mutation is 0.3 and 0.03 respectively. The parameter values
Genetic Algorithm
Initialization
Maximum Yes
End
generation?
No Finalized
membership
Generation+1 parameter values
Selection
Crossover
Mutation
Objective function Parameter

value evaluation values
Fuzzy Logic
Membership
Fuzzy rules
function
Input Fuzzification Fuzzy inference system Defuzzification Output
Fig. 4. The GA–fuzzy framework.
for the best models obtained for PLOC, route, departure time, mode and trip canceling models are shown in Tables 4 and 5
respectively, with the average deviation of 0.53, 0.06, 0.07, 0.06, and 0.01 respectively. The average deviation for validation is
0.65, 0.09, 0.08, 0.03, and 0.05 respectively for PLOC, route, departure time, mode and trip canceling models. Comparing this
to the average deviation obtained using neuro-fuzzy method (Khoo and Asitha, 2015), i.e. 0.48, 0.09, 0.09, 0.17, and 0.06
respectively for PLOC, route, departure time, mode and trip canceling models, the average deviation is considered acceptable.
The GA–fuzzy models have lower average deviation values compared to those obtained by neuro-fuzzy models, except the
PLOC model. Fig. 5 shows the convergence trend of the Genetic Algorithm for all the models. It is observed that the model
converges at different generation number.
5.2. Driver perception on road congestion level (PLOC)
The PLOC model in Fig. 6 shows the relationship of the perceived traffic congestion level with density for three types of
traffic condition, i.e. light, medium, and heavy. Light traffic condition has traffic speed of 90 km/h and flow rate of 800 veh/h/
lane; medium traffic condition has speed of 60 km/h and flow rate of 1300 veh/h/lane; and heavy traffic condition has speed
Table 4
Parameter values for input membership function.
Input variable Model Level Parameter value

a b c d
Density (veh/km/lane) PLOC Low 1 0 5.2 12.3
[0: 40] Med 7.5 20.8 25.4 30.2
High 25.0 30.6 40 1
Route choice Low 1 0 11.7 24.4
Med 8.4 21.0 28.5 35.4
High 28.1 34.4 40 1
Departure time choice Low 1 0 5.8 18.1
Med 7.9 18.8 26.9 36.9
High 24.2 33.3 40 100
Mode choice Low 1 0 11.0 16.5
Med 6.0 13.1 30.6 37.9
High 27.5 35.6 40 1
Trip canceling choice Low 1 0 8.8 15.8
Med 4.4 12.3 21.0 28.5
High 20.2 33.5 40 1
Speed (km/h) PLOC Low 1 0 39.1 68.8
[0:150] Med 28.9 71.9 105.5 125
High 101.6 139 150 1
Med 56.3 76.6 107.8 130.5
High 95.3 132.8 150 1
Med 51.6 83.6 107.8 131.3
High 103.1 143.8 150 1
Med 11.7 27.3 64.1 124.2
High 76.56 111.7 150 1
Med 31.3 63.3 86.7 124.2
High 97.7 128.1 150 1
Flow (veh/h) PLOC Low 1 0 611.98 1106.77
[0:3000] Med 742.2 1367.2 1783.9 2161.5
High 1966.1 2356.8 3000 1
Med 520.8 950.5 1432.3 1966.2
High 1497.4 2083.3 2500 1
Med 195.3 1054.7 1575.5 2044.3
High 1614.6 2005.2 2500 1
Med 729.2 1614.6 1901.4 2317.7
High 2031.3 2356.8 2500 1
Med 442.7 859.4 1549.5 2200.3
High 1536.5 1966.1 3000 1
of 30 km/h and flow rate of 2000 veh/h/lane. It is observed that the perceived congestion level-density relationships for these
three traffic conditions show similar inclination. Perceived congestion levels increase with the increment in density while
three significant levels of congestion are observed. Drivers perceived light or congestion-free when density on the road is
in the range of 0–7 veh/km/lane, medium congestion level when density is in the range of 12–25 veh/km/lane, and high
congestion level when density is greater than 30 veh/km/lane. Besides, Fig. 5 shows reasonable trend in which drivers
perceive higher congestion levels when traffic condition is heavier.
Compared to the level of service (LOS) defined in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2000 (TRB, 2000), it is observed
that drivers have higher tolerance to heavy traffic congestion levels. The perceived heavy congestion level is equivalent to
LOS F defined by HCM and occurs at higher density, while the perceived medium congestion is in conjunction with LOS C
to E. Drivers have lower tolerance to light traffic congestion levels in which they accede LOS A corresponding to light or
congestion-free levels. These findings are consistent with those stated in Choocharukul et al. (2004). In addition, drivers
are more sensitive to heavy congestion levels as the gradient developed between medium to high congestion level is steeper
than the gradient between low to medium congestion levels.
Fig. 7A shows the relationship of perceived congestion levels with speed. Density and flow rate set for light traffic
condition is 5 veh/km/lane and 800 veh/h/lane; medium traffic condition has density of 10 veh/km/lane and flow rate of
1300 veh/h/lane; heavy traffic condition has density of 20 veh/km/lane and flow rate of 2000 veh/h/lane. In general, drivers
Table 5
Parameter values for output membership function.
Model Level Parameter value

a b c d
PLOC [1:6] Low 1 0 2.0 3.3
Med 1.9 3.1 4.2 5.3
High 4.1 5.2 6 1
Route choice [0:1] Low 1 0 0.20 0.46
Med 0.28 0.46 0.69 0.88
High 0.68 0.86 1.00 1
Departure time choice [0:1] Low 1 0 0.16 0.35
Med 0.17 0.24 0.6 0.81
High 0.55 0.81 1.00 1
Mode choice [0:1] Low 1 0 0.30 0.47
Med 0.18 0.47 0.61 0.71
High 0.62 0.82 1.00 1
Trip canceling choice [0:1] Low 1 0 0.25 0.35
Med 0.14 0.28 0.55 0.75
High 0.58 0.77 1.00 1
0.7
0.6
Average Deviation
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Number of Generation
PLOC Route Departure time Trip canceling Mode
Fig. 5. Convergence trend of genetic algorithm.
7
Perceived Level of Congestion
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Density (veh/km/lane)
Light Medium High HCM
Fig. 6. Perceived congestion level vs. density.
perceive congestion levels as high when travel speed is low. Besides, drivers are more sensitive to travel speed when traffic
condition is heavier. Fig. 7B shows the relationship of perceived congestion levels with traffic flow for three traffic conditions,
i.e. light, medium, and heavy. Light traffic condition is modeled with a speed of 90 km/h and density of 5 veh/km/lane;
medium traffic condition has speed of 60 km/h and density of 10 veh/km/lane; heavy traffic condition has speed of
30 km/h and density of 20 veh/km/lane. The figure shows that drivers are less sensitive to changes of traffic flow when
evaluating congestion levels.
In summary, drivers are more sensitive to the change in density as compared to traffic flow and speed when evaluating
traffic congestion levels. This is because when density increases, drivers’ freedom to manoeuver (lane change, for example) is

6
1
(A) Perceived congestion level vs. Speed
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Speed (km/hr)
Light Medium Heavy
Fig. 7A. Perceived congestion level vs. speed.
6
1
(B) Perceived congestion level vs. Flow
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Flow (Veh/hr/lane)
Light Medium HEavy
Fig. 7B. Perceived congestion level vs. flow.
restricted and driving becomes less comfortable. Further to that, drivers are able to observe that there is significant vehicle
crowd on the road. Drivers are less sensitive to flow rate as they perceive traffic congestion as tolerable if traffic is constantly
moving even at a slower rate. The implications of the findings are that traffic engineers could represent the traffic condition
by three different levels (e.g. three-color label: green, yellow, and red to represent light, medium, and heavy traffic condi-
tions respectively) on the map when disseminating real time traffic condition to the users based on the density data obtained
from the roadway. This facilitates the communication between traffic engineers and road users.
5.3. Drivers’ travel choice based on perceived congestion level
Drivers make necessary adjustment to travel plans when sufficient traffic information is available, in order to avoid traffic
congestion and to enjoy travel time saving. Fig. 8 shows the likeliness of drivers performing different types of adjustment in
travel choices with respect to the perceived congestion level. In general, the figure shows that when the perceived conges-
tion level escalates, drivers are more willing to change travel plans. Drivers start making some changes to their trip when the
congestion level is greater than 3.6. At first, they choose to change their departure time (either by departing earlier or later).
Drivers are more willing to perform departure time shift as it is the easiest way to avoid congestion which does not require
drivers’ knowledge on transport network since they are able to still use their usual route. However, when the perceived
congestion level goes beyond the level of 3.6, drivers would be more willing to change their route rather than departure time.
According to Xiong (2011), drivers’ perform the departure time slot search through a continuous process of learning and
application. They would choose the best slot (with the least congestion) from their past experience. In addition, the anchor-
ing effect tends to cause the drivers to set a range of slots which is not overly different from their original departure time.
They are reluctant to alter their departure time if they perceive that a longer than acceptable range of departure time shift is
needed to avoid traffic congestion. This explains why they prefer to change their route choice when the perceived congestion
level escalates.
Drivers would also consider canceling their trip as an appropriate travel plan when the perceived congestion level is
higher than 3.8. This is applicable for the non-work trip (such as shopping and social trip), in which drivers have the
flexibility to reschedule to another day. Drivers have the least willingness to perform mode shift. The findings show that their
probability of shifting mode is close to 0. One of the reasons is due to the poor public transport system in the region where its
service coverage is limited and unreliable (Mohammed, 2014). Another reason could be due to drivers’ dependence on their
own private vehicles that provide more flexibility. This is evident within the Klang Valley region which has high vehicle
ownership (Mohamad and Kiggundu, 2007). Drivers feel difficult to change their usual and routine travel behavior.
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
Probability
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50
Perceived level of congestion
Route Departure Time Trip Canceling Travel As Usual
Fig. 8. Driver travel choice.
Travel choice functions established in this study have the advantage over the static value obtained by past studies. Rather
than knowing in general the percentage of drivers changing their travel plan, engineers could relate to such changes with the
perceived congestion levels, which could be traced down to traffic parameters. This provides more in-depth understanding of
drivers’ travel choice and behavior with respect to various traffic conditions.
5.4. Policy implications
The findings from the study has useful practical contribution. It was learned that traffic apps is an effective traffic infor-
mation dissemination tool that could affect driver travel choice and decision. Its extended functionality and the ability to
deliver real time traffic information in-hand could improve the existing traffic information dissemination system. This
encourages the fusion of these two technologies (i.e. traffic apps and conventional system) that provides improved reliability,
accuracy, and timely information delivery. The Kuala Lumpur City Hall, for example, has planned to incorporate the existing
system (ITIS) with Waze apps to deliver real time traffic images of ITIS and facilitate journey planning (Bavani, 2015).
In terms of traffic information delivery, engineers could use a three-color label (e.g. green, yellow, and red) to represent
the traffic condition (e.g. light, medium, and heavy) in traffic information dissemination based on the density data collected
from road network. This facilitates the communication between the engineers and users in which engineers know the traffic
condition boundaries (density, flow, and speed) of these levels while drivers understand the meaning of the bars.
The understanding of the relationship of travel choice changes with respect to the perceived congestion level, thus allow-
ing traffic engineers to predict driver response in various traffic conditions. This facilitates the analysis and assessment of
various traffic management schemes and strategies, especially those requiring real time prediction and driver behavior
analysis.
The findings also indicate that respective authorities need to set up policies to promote public transport usage. Currently,
the public transport usage is low, i.e. 21% (Land Public Transport Commission, 2014). The policies and strategies to promote
public transport are such as: (1) Increase coverage of rail service by extending existing light rail transit system and devel-
opment of new mass rapid transit system (Land Public Transport Commission, 2012); (2) Increase fuel price that serves
as a push factor to reduce private car usage (Khoo et al., 2012); (3) Improve bus reliability and service (Land Public
Transport Commission, 2012); and (4) Dissemination of public transport service (or multi-modal transport) information
for better journey planning.
6. Limitations
The models estimate the likeliness of drivers making changes to their travel choice by considering the perceived traffic
congestion level as the only factor. Other factors that would affect such decisions are beyond the scope of this study, for
example drivers’ knowledge in transport network, willingness to pay toll, and others. As such, the models and findings might
be localized but the analysis methodology is applicable worldwide. In addition, the survey questions assumed that non-work
trip is conducted by drivers when these traffic images were shown to them. This gives more flexibility for them to decide the
types of travel choice changes that they would make. Khoo and Ong (2011) found that there is no significant difference in
terms of driver behavior in traffic information utilization for different trip purpose (work trip, social trip, shopping trip and
school trip). It was shown that drivers have the same intention to change their departure time choice or/and route choice
under the influence of conventional traffic information tool (such as radio, TV, and VMS) regardless of types of trip. However,
the trip cancelation choice is not feasible for work trip. Apart from this, drivers are requested to indicate only one type of
travel choice, i.e. the most likely choice. Therefore, no combination of changes (for example departure time and route choice
change simultaneously) are modeled. Familiar drivers (or short distance drivers) would find traffic image apps more useful
as they know the road bottleneck and could easily check the images on those section to determine the traffic condition.
7. Conclusions
A driver is one of the main components in a transportation system that could influence the effectiveness of any active
demand management (ADM) strategies. As such, the understanding of driver behavior and their travel choice is crucial to
ensure the successful implementation of ADM strategies in alleviating traffic congestion especially in the city area. Nowa-
days, real time traffic information is delivered to drivers’ finger tips via various smart phone applications (apps). Uploading
of traffic images captured from CCTVs mounted along roadways to the traffic apps is one of the new ways to disseminate
traffic information in this new era.
This study investigates the effectiveness of disseminating traffic information in the form of traffic images. By viewing the
traffic images, drivers develop their own perception on congestion level and react accordingly to avoid traffic congestion.
Drivers’ travel decision is studied on their response in diverting to alternative routes, departure time change, mode shift,
and trip cancelation. A relationship of driver likeliness to perform travel choice changes is established with their perceived
congestion levels using the integrated framework of genetic algorithm–fuzzy logic. Drivers consider changing their travel
plan only when the perceived congestion level is medium (i.e. greater than level 3.8). They would first consider changing
their departure time. If traffic congestion escalates, drivers would choose to divert to alternative routes or cancel their trip.
They have the least likeliness to shift to public transport even at high congestion levels.
The findings are important and useful to engineers as they are required to fully understand driver (user) sensitivity to
traffic conditions so that proper active travel demand management strategies could be implemented successfully. In addi-
tion, engineers could use the relationship established in this study to predict drivers’ response in various traffic conditions
when carrying out modeling and impact studies. For future work, a continuous video clip that shows traffic flow conditions
from free flow to severe congestion could be utilized to gauge drivers’ perception of congestion and response. In addition, the
proposed methodology could be used to investigate the effectiveness of travel time apps.
Acknowledgements
This research study is supported by Ministry of Education Malaysia under the Exploratory Research Grant Scheme (ERGS),
Project No.: ERGS/1/11/TK/UTAR/03/13. We would like to thank Mr. Tan Tian Kai and Mr. Tan Wen Jie for their assistance in
survey and data extraction.
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Transportation Research Part A 88 (2016) 175–194

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Transportation Research Part A

An impact analysis of traffic image information system on

2.1. Impact of ATIS on travel behavior

2.2. Studies on traffic image analysis

City Major findings

City Major findings

2.3. Role of smartphone technology in influencing travel behavior

Fig. 1. Klang Valley region.

4.1. Traffic images extraction

4.2. Opinion survey

Fig. 2. An excerpt of survey form.

Variables Category Percentage Variables Category Percentage

Note: A total of 2880 respondents are interviewed.

4.3. Data preparation for model calibration and validation

4.4. Cross validation

4.5. The genetic algorithm–fuzzy logic framework

5. Results and discussions

5.1. Model calibration and validation

Objective function Parameter

Input Fuzzification Fuzzy inference system Defuzzification Output

Fig. 4. The GA–fuzzy framework.

5.2. Driver perception on road congestion level (PLOC)

Input variable Model Level Parameter value

Model Level Parameter value

Fig. 5. Convergence trend of genetic algorithm.

Fig. 6. Perceived congestion level vs. density.

Perceived Level of Congestion

Fig. 7A. Perceived congestion level vs. speed.

Fig. 7B. Perceived congestion level vs. flow.

5.3. Drivers’ travel choice based on perceived congestion level

Fig. 8. Driver travel choice.

5.4. Policy implications

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