10 Disruptive Technologies

that will Shape the Future

 3

“In 50 years, every street in London

will be buried under nine feet of manure”
-THE TIMES, 1894

Sertifikasi Executive Development Program 2019

1823: "Rail travel at high speed is not possible, because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia."
- Dr. Dionysius Lardner, a professor of Natural Philosophy & Astronomy.
1876: "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." —
William Preece, British Post Office.
1876: "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of
communication." — William Orton, President of Western Union.
1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” — President of the Michigan
Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.
1943: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM
1981: “Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.” — Marty Cooper, inventor.
1995: "I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." —
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com.
2006: "Everyone's always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, 'Probably
never.'" — David Pogue, The New York Times.
2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” — Steve Ballmer,
Microsoft CEO
The Future Game Changer
1. OPEN TO DEAL WITH “THE UNKNOWN” CHALLENGE
“WE ARE MOVING FROM VUCA to TUNA”
-Oxford’s Prof. Rafael Ramirez

AREA I AREA III AREA IV

KNOWN KNOWN UNKNOWN UNTHINKABLE

KNOWN UNKNOWN UNKNWON

UNKNOWN

KNOWN

VUCA TUNA
• Turbulence
• Volatility
• Uncertainty
• Uncertainty
• Complexity • Novelty
• Ambiguity • Ambiguity
 9
2. ABILITY TO UNLEARN
TOOLSET: EXPLORING, THEN EVALUATING....
 “Integration” of Cyber-Physical Future
IOT ROBOT DEXTERITY
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 3D METAL PRINTING
CLOUD COMPUTING BLOCKCHAIN CARBON DIOXIDE CATCHER
QUANTUM COMPUTING AUGMENTED REALITY SMOOTH-TALKING AI ASSISTANT

BIOINFORMATICS & BIO-HACKING

BRAIN COMPUTER INTERFACE
NANO TECHNOLOGY

AN ECG ON YOUR WRIST

PERSONALIZED MEDICINE
GENE DRIVE
ARTIFICIAL EMBRIOS
CUSTOM CANCER VACCINES
LAB-GROWN MEAT
THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE 14

IS IRRELEVANT

Worst case Best case

scenario scenario

Sertifikasi Executive Development Program 2019

THE FUTURE IS DIFFERENT & WE HAVE TO 15

THINK DIFFERENTLY ABOUT THE FUTURE

SKILLSET: FUTURE STRATEGIST
SKILLSET: FUTURE STRATEGIST 17

FUTURE SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS

F I G A I

(Scwenker, Wulf, 2013)