PSG COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY, COIMBATORE-641004

DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS & COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES

COURSE PLAN

1. COURSE CODE : 09MN01/ 09ML01

2. COURSE TITLE : STATISTICS AND RELIABILITY ENGINEERING
3. SEMESTER & BRANCH : I ME - INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING & LEAN
MANUFACTURING
4. FACULTY : Dr.T.BABITHA
5. OBJECTIVES
The application of mathematical models and techniques is becoming increasingly
important in today’s business environment. This course aims at equipping each student to
understand how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as
engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and
operations research. The approach is heuristic and nonrigorous and attempts to develop in the
student an intuitive feel for the subject which enables him or her to think “probabilistically”. i.e
both understanding and applying probability theory.
Reliability, Safety and Quality are the key words to success in today's commercial,
industrial and public sector environments. Reliability Engineering performs a wide variety of
special management and engineering tasks to ensure that system reliability and quality goals are
achieved. These tasks include designing for reliability and maintainability, developing
appropriate quality control procedures, and incorporating failure data and failure analysis in
program management.
6. LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Most experimental searches for paranormal phenomena are statistical in nature.
Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred.
In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability theory, that is used
extensively in areas of study as statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy to draw
conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying mechanics of complex
systems. The word probability derives from probity,. the modern meaning of probability, which
is used as a measure of the weight of empirical evidence, and is arrived from inductive
reasoning and statistical inference. Randomness is a concept with somewhat disparate meanings

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in several fields. It also has common meanings which may have loose connections with some of
those more definite meanings. The classical version of probability theory developed, proceeds
from the assumption that outcomes of random processes are equally likely; thus they were
among the first to give a definition of randomness in statistical terms.
Bayesian probability is one of the most popular interpretations of the concept of
probability. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of logic that
enables reasoning with uncertain statements. In probability theory and statistics, the cumulative
distribution function (CDF) or just distribution function, completely describes the probability
distribution of a real-valued random variable X. In the case of only two random variables, it is
called a bivariate distribution.
A Statistical hypothesis test is a method of making statistical decisions using
experimental data. In statistics, a result is called statistically significant if it is unlikely to have
occurred by chance. The phrase ‘Test of significance’, like much of modern statistics, was
coined by Ronald Fisher .Critical tests of this kind may be called tests of significance, and when
such tests are available we may discover whether a second sample is or is not significantly
different from the first. Statistical hypothesis testing is a key technique of frequentist statistical
inference.
Design of experiments, or Experimental design, is the design of all information-
gathering exercises where variation is present, whether under the full control of the experimenter
or not. Often the experimenter is interested in the effect of some process or intervention on some
objects, which may be people, parts of people, groups of people, plants, animals, etc. Design of
experiments is thus a discipline that has very broad application across all the natural and social
sciences. The first to apply the newly discovered statistical methods to the problem of quality
control was Walter A. Shewhart of the Bell Telephone Laboratories.
Also the aim of the course is to provide the foundations and advanced topics for
reliability engineering. The focus will be on the study of definition, analysis, assessment and
design of reliability concepts based on probability and statistics. This course will provide an
intensive survey of the complete field of reliability engineering. The course is designed to give a
thorough philosophical and mathematical base for reliability engineering along with examples of
application.

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7. COURSE PLAN
WEEK TOPICS ASSIGNMENTS TUTORIALS

Random Variables and Probability Distributions:

Sample spaces – events, probability axioms -
conditional probability - independent events - Baye's
1
formula. Distribution functions - marginal
distributions - conditional distributions - stochastic
independence.
Expectation - conditional expectation and conditional
variance. Moment generating functions - cumulant
2
generating functions – probability distributions -
binomial, poisson
Geometric, uniform, normal, Gamma, Beta,
(generating function, Mean, Variance and simple
problems. ESTIMATION: Point estimation -
3 characteristics of estimation - interval estimation -
interval estimates of mean, standard deviation,
proportion, difference in means and ratios of standard
deviations.
Probability density function and properties of t, F and
Chi-square distributions. Test for means, variances
4 and attributes using the above distributions, a large
sample tests - tests for means, variances and
proportions.
CORRELATION AND REGRESSION: - Multiple
5 and partial correlation – regression - linear, non-
linear, logistic, multiple regression (only problems).
DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS AND ANALYSIS
OF VARIANCE: Experimental designs – full
6
factorial, partial factorial, Taguchi’s orthogonal array
method.
Completely randomized block, latin square design
7 (only problems). ANOVA - One way and two way
classifications, Multiway ANOVA (Only Problems).

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 INTRODUCTION TO RELIABILITY: Definition
of reliability- reliability Vs quality-reliability
8 function - MTTF – hazard rate function- bathtub
curve – derivation of the reliability function-constant
failure rate model.
Time dependent failure models- exponential, Weibull
9
distribution.
RELIABILITY OF SYSTEM AND MODELS:
Serial configuration – parallel configuration –
10 Assignment 2
combined series parallel systems- system structure
function, minimal cuts and minimal paths.
Load sharing systems, standby system, degraded
11 systems, three state devices – covariate models, static
models, dynamic models, physics of failure models.
DESIGN FOR RELIABILITY,
MAINTAINABILITY AND AVAILABILITY:
Reliability specification and system measurements -
12
reliability allocation - design methods – failure
analysis – system safety and fault tree analysis –
analysis of down time – the repair time distribution.
Reliability under preventive maintenance –
13 maintenance requirements – design methods -
availability concepts and definitions – system
THE ANALYSIS OF FAILURE DATA AND
RELIABILITY TESTING: Data collection –
14 Tutorial 2
empirical methods – ungrouped and grouped
complete, censored data
Static life estimation- test time calculation – burn in
15 testing, acceptance, sequential, binomial testing –
accelerated life testing – other acceleration models
Experimental design- reliability growth process-
16 idealized growth curve- various growth models-
identifying failure and repair distributions.

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Students are expected to come prepared for each class after revising the previous class topics as
there will be a connection between the topics.
9. EVALUATION COMPONENTS
S.No. COMPONENT CA MARKS
1 TESTS 30 50
2 ASSIGMENT –I 10
3 ASSIGMENT –II 10
4 FINAL SEMESTER EXAMINATION 50
TOTAL 100
Continuous assessment is for 50 marks. Three tests will be conducted as per the college test time
table. Best two out of three will be taken for assessment. The final examination will be of three
hours duration for 100 marks.
10. Reference Books

TITLE AUTHOR PUBLISHER

S. No.
Probability and Statistics
Prentice Hall, New
1 with Reliability, Queuing and Trivedi K S
Delhi,1982
Computer Applications
Probability, Statistics and
Academic
Queuing Theory with
2 Arnold O Allen Press, 1978.
Computer Science
Applications
An Introduction To
Tata Mcgraw Hill,
3 Reliability And Charles E Ebeling
2006
Maintainability Engineering
McGraw Hill book
A forecasting and Time series Doughlas C Montgomory,
4 Company, 1976.
Analysis Lynwood A Johnson

5 “Quality Control Daleh Bester Field Prentice Hall, 1986

Way kuo, Rajendra Prasad Cambridge

Optimal Reliability Design
6 V, Frank A and Tillman University Press P
and Applications
ching- lai Hwang Ltd., 2001.
Patrick D. T. O'Connor,
Practical Reliability John Wiley and
7 David Newton, Richard
Engineering Sons, 2002
Bromley
Engineering Design and
8 Srinath LS ISTE, 1999
Reliability

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11. WEB LINKS
S.No. TOPIC URL
Sampling
1 http://stattrek.com/Lesson3/SamplingDistributions.aspx
Distribution
2 Estimation http://cnx.org/content/m11263/latest/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_hypothesis_testing
Testing of
3 www.richland.edu/james/lecture/m170/ch09-int.html
Hypothesis
http://www.xycoon.com/hypothesistesting.htm
Probability http://www-itl-nist-gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda36-htm
4
distributions
Regression
http://www-statpac-com/statistics-calculator/correlation-regression-htm
5 and
Correlation
Design of
Experiments
6 www.camo.com/rt/Resources/design_of_experiment.html
& Analysis
of Variance
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/relandval.php
7 Reliability
http://www.mem.drexel.edu/courses/documents/reliability_wang.pdf
http://books.google.co.in/books?id=D0hUoaXN28EC&printsec=frontcover&dq
8 Reliability
=reliability+engineering#PPA4,M1
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda3668.htm
Weibull
9 http://www.math.utah.edu/~lzhang/teaching/3070summer2009/Daily%20Updates/
Distribution
lectures/sec4_5.pdf

Prepared by Approved by HOD

(T. Babitha) (Dr. R. Nadarajan)

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