DIRECTION PROBLEM

By

Uttaran Chatterjee & Soham Ghosh,

B.Sc. (statistics hons), RKMRC Narendrapur.

Abstract: Developing a search technique (strategy) when you know a possible position of your
target, and keep on updating your prior information, with respect to your initial point and your
target’s possible location using some Bayesian approach, and then further calculating the accuracy
of the process. We tried to present the problem in form of a story so that readers don’t find it that
boring to leave it untouched.

So what’s the Problem???

A man seeking a job is going for an interview but he has no idea of the city, he only knows the
geographic direction (East, West, North, and South etc.) and he also knows that his office is located
in the North-west direction from the bus stop. He was instructed to get off at the bus stand and ask
anyone to instruct him further. After getting off at the city bus stand he meets a person and asks him
how to get to the office, he says, “Go ahead!! You will find a diversion of four identical roads. There
is a beggar sitting in front of one of the four diversions, take that diversion and you will meet an
ice-cream seller who will lead you to your destination.“

But unfortunately, the beggar that day sat in front of a different road (any of the other three roads,
other than the one the person intended). The stranger following the given instructions takes the
road where he found the beggar sitting. Hence he might find either a candy seller, a fruit seller or a
newspaper vendor, but not the ice cream seller. Meeting someone other than the ice cream van will
make him realise that he is going in the wrong direction, so he stops and again explains the situation
the one whom he meet, but the ice cream vendor, candy seller, fruit seller or the newspaper man do
not know each other, so he will ask the possible geographic direction of his destination, without
taking the risk of being misled further. If he knows that he walked towards north before taking one
of the diversions and after that he took a right turn and then a left turn to meet newspaper vendor
(say). Now using the information he gets from the persons he meets and his sense of direction, he
develops a strategy to reach his destination by finding out an optimal path following which he will
never be late (assuming that no one misdirects him intentionally). So what can be his strategy and
how often do you think his strategy may work?

Let’s think together, what you would have done in such a situation, when you have no smartphone
(just for the sake of solving the problem)?

Although our friend is still jobless (may be consequences of unemployment), he is quite smart with
some knowledge of mathematics and probability). Once misled, he decides not to be misdirected
again and loose some important time so he starts asking the geographic direction (East, West, North,
and South etc.). He took out a piece of paper and first drew the axes of direction on a corner of that
and drew a special kind of rectangle( such that more or less 60% of the rectangle always happens to
be a square) keeping his possible direction well inside that rectangle and keeping himself as any
corner or vertex of that rectangle. In this case as he knows that he was facing north before taking
one of the diversions and after taking the diversion ( where he found the deaf beggar sitting), he
turned right and then left to meet the newspaper vendor, it’s evident that now he is facing towards
north and his destination is towards north-west (leftward). So in his rectangle he will be at the
bottom right corner or vertex, his destination is somewhere in the area enclosed by the two
opposite adjacent sides from the bottom right corner.

Above here, is the axes of direction as he drawn on his paper and in the adjacent figure, he denotes
his present position as 𝒑𝒐𝒐 (the bottom left vertex of the rectangle) and his possible destination as D.

Now he asks a person whom he meets two questions, as follows-

Q1. In which direction is his destination?

If the answer is say towards left, then the 2nd question,

Q2. Is there is nearly 60% chance that my destination is somewhere near me?

If the answer is “yes” or “can’t say, I’m not a statistician” or even “no”, he proceeds with his further
strategy.

Now look carefully if he stands facing north then his left means west, but our friend knows that the
location is possibly north-west , so to him left means union of north and north-west ( which still
remains left for our friend), and hence if the person says left our friend is happy to continue, but if
the first answer is not left he should not trust the stranger and ask again to another one, as he is
very much certain that the possible direction of his destination have to be leftward from his position
as he knows the bus stop is now towards his south( as he facing north) and he neither have travelled
a long distance from the bus stop yet.

Now let’s come to the answer of the second question (Q2), if the answer is “yes” or “can’t say…..”,
he cuts the rectangle one big and one small such that the bigger rectangle (or in this case a square,
due to the special kind of the former rectangle) is at least 60% of the former rectangle and the
smaller rectangle is at most 40% of the former rectangle. Now as he was said that there is 60%
chance that his destination may ( due to answer “yes”) or may not( due to the answer “ can’t say…”)
be anywhere near him, he draws the bigger rectangle is towards right or east ( following the axes he
drawn on the corner of the paper). But still he have some suspect about the information and cannot
take the risk of avoiding the bigger rectangle completely (let’s call it rejection rectangle (square) ),
even though from his current state of information its says there is at least 60% of chance, that his
destination is not anywhere near him. So he decides to cover a part of the rejection square (not the
whole) without taking any paths towards east or south (just to keep himself psychologically near to
his destinations), hence he will cover maximum area that can be covered within the rejection
rectangle not going towards east or south.

Shown above how he divided the former rectangle into a bigger rectangle or a possible square (60%
of the former rectangle), here the 60% rectangle (or square) is our rejection rectangle (square).

Now as he decides to cover the maximum of the rejection rectangle (or square), from 𝑝𝑜𝑜 .

There is no value of the answer “no” as an answer to his second question, as he knows that his
destination is somewhere to his left and he is suspecting either of the former answers and covering
the maximum area in the rejection rectangle anyway, so the answer “no” is as good as the other two
answers. Funny enough isn’t it!!

Actually all the answers of the 2nd question is equivalent to him, he is just asking it may be for sake
of psychological peace, if he is confident enough about his present position with respect to the bus
stop( starting point) and his possible destination, he may not bother to ask that question either.

So, his path from 𝑝𝑜𝑜 will be somewhat-

Put r=0 ; the area under the curve is the area our friend is likely to cover before going to the other
half of the rectangle. Note that, our friend may even find a way to his destination (D), even from this
bounded area, but if he fails to find a route from the above bounded area, he will end up being at
𝑝1𝑜 , where he will have to again find another person to ask some question.

But before asking, the other passer-by let us explain why our friend drew such a (regular)curve such
that the adjacent sides of the rejection rectangle(square), happens to be tangents to the curve at 𝑝𝑜𝑜
and 𝑝1𝑜 . Actually as we said our friend knows a bit of mathematics, so he knows that the above claim
actually follows from a theorem named Isoperimetric Theorem. The theorem states that “within a
closed isoperimetric (same or constant perimeter) regular figure the maximum possible area that
can be covered has to be a circle.”

Now if our rejection rectangle is actually a square , as stated due the speciality of the rectangle
drawn by our friend at first, then the maximum possible area that can be covered within the square
𝜋 𝜋
is 4 𝑟 2 square units , if we consider the sides of the rejection square to be r units. Note that “ 4 𝑟 2
square units” is the area that can either be covered by a circle within a square of sides r units , or the
same area can be covered also by a quarter of a circle of radius r units. In this case, let us consider
the latter case as it supports our friend’s strategy of “not to travel towards east or south”.

So now, with well satisfied with “why our friend chose such a path”, let’s move on to establish what
should be his strategy from thereafter.

So at 𝑝1𝑜 , he will ask again questions but this time 3 questions, as he almost may have forgotten the
position of the bus stop with respect to his present position (𝑝1𝑜 ).

Hence the possible questions are,

Q1. What is the direction I’m facing now? And in which direction, I can find the bus stop?

At, point 𝑝1𝑜 , one might say him that he is facing towards west and the city bus stop is towards
south-east (SE), which may make him surprised( as he neither travelled south nor east), so he will
ask another question to the 2nd stranger.

Q2. In which direction is my destination?

If the answer is say towards left, then he feels satisfied with the stranger’s, answer to the
first question. But why?
Because, he will understand that he is facing west (W) and the direction of the bus stop is in
SE, even though he came a long way towards north-west(NW)(as he didn’t took a single way
towards east or south), but haven’t yet found his destination, this means that he may have
possibly travelled a more towards north(N) than towards west(W). So using the the answers
of both the above questions, he develops his hypothesis about his destination as,
“ my destination is towards left(L) means its towards south(S), but I know it can’t be so, but I
have also travelled more towards N than towards W, which implies that I have tom travel a
bit towards S and W to equalise my excessive movement towards N. my movement should
be towards south-west(SW).
Hence, SW = L ∪ W, where L≈ S;
And hence he proceeds to the last and useless question,

Q3. Is there is at least 60% chance that my destination is somewhere near me?

If the answer is “yes” or “can’t say, I’m not a statistician” or even “no”, he proceeds with his further
strategy.

Now his strategy is very similar from here what he did earlier, he now again divides the 40% of the
remaining former rectangle (which he not yet travelled), into two a square and a rectangle. The
square will be the 60% of that rectangle which he haven’t travelled yet. By the information he got at
𝑝𝑜1 , he constructs the square(60% of the smaller rectangle) towards his right, as he was said that the
possible location of his destination is towards left, and he also decides not to take any more paths
towards north (N) or east(E), as he needs to equalise his excessive movements towards north he
made while covering the 1rst rejection square. Now again this square becomes his 2nd rejection
square, we he decides to cover the maximum of it like he did in the 1rst rejection square.

So again his path to in the 2nd rejection square is as

the direction axes given is the direction axes at the point 𝑝1𝑜 .

Similarly, even after performing this for r times he fails to find his destination, his strategy will be the
same,

1. Asking questions and assessing his position with respect to the bus stop (initial point) and his
possible location D.
2. Dividing his suspected rectangle in a 60-40 proportion, such that the 60% of the rectangle
always gives him a rejection square, which he covers with a certain suspect probability, such
that he travels maximum of the rejection square .
3. If he fails to find his way to his destination from the rth rejection square, and comes to the
point 𝑝𝑟𝑜 , and he do the same again, until he reaches D.

So, combining above figures and assuming that our friend will reach D after covering 6
rejection square, then our friend’s path may seem like this-

[In the given figure, the or points where the curve is having tangents are
𝑝𝑜𝑜 , 𝑝1𝑜 , 𝑝2𝑜 , 𝑝3𝑜 , 𝑝4𝑜 , 𝑝5𝑜 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝6𝑜 and eventually he will find D. ]
It’s quite surprising isn’t it?

The path in which our friend converges towards D is a Logarithmic Spiral!! and also that he will
eventually find his destination somewhere in some jth rejection square , after meeting and collecting
information from j-1 strangers.

“If you know, it’s more likely that something may not be there,

Then you may often find it there.”

Well now happy with a strategy in hand, our friend must keep another thing in his mind(or in hand),
which he may fall short off if he doesn’t take care of it from the very beginning of his journey. That
thing is time.

He must even make a strategy how he should spend his time in each rejection square such that he is
not late when he actually manages to reach the office.

Now he assumes here another thing, that he will have to ask for new information infinite number of
times. So, if he has k units of time in his hand at the starting of his journey, he needs to partition k in
infinite number of terms such that the infinite number of terms add up to k. He also notices that
each rejection square is decreasing in size and hence the time he requires to inspect each rejection
rectangle decreases as he moves nearer to his destination D, by the property of logarithmic spiral.

So he approximates the partition of k into infinite number of terms by a geometric progression of

infinite terms,

Let he takes a (<k) units of time to cover the 1rst rejection square and reach 𝑝1𝑜 . Then he must cover
(𝑘−𝑎) 𝑘−𝑎 2
the next rejection square in 𝑎 units of time, the next rejection square in 𝑎( ) units of time
𝑘 𝑘
and so on,

And hence k can be written in an infinite series,

𝑘−𝑎 𝑘−𝑎 2 𝑘−𝑎 3 𝑎
𝑎 + 𝑎( ) + 𝑎( ) + 𝑎( ) + ⋯ … … … … … … … … …. = 𝑘−𝑎 = 𝑘,
𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 (1− )
𝑘

𝑘−𝑎
Where, a<k and ( 𝑘
) < 1.

Now following this strategy he will never be late as he will find D after meeting a finite number of
persons in reality, he will never have to go on and on searching in the system, and hence his total
time taken will just be a partial sum of the infinite series give above. In other words if reaches D
while inspecting the rth rejection square, then the total time he had spent given that he took some a
units of time cover the 1rst rejection square, then
𝑘−𝑎 𝑘−𝑎 2 𝑘−𝑎 3 𝑘−𝑎 𝑟−1
𝑎 + 𝑎( ) + 𝑎( ) + 𝑎( ) + ⋯…………………+ 𝑎( ) < 𝑘,
𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 𝑘

Since the above series is just the partial sum of the infinite series that sums up to k. So he will never
be late if he develops the above strategies.
But, if our friend is confident enough that he will find D after asking a finite (say r) number of
persons, he may spilt up the time into some r components

Again since he is travelling in a logarithmic spiral, he may be lucky enough to have k for which he
may find some natural number r such that
∑𝑟𝑖=1 𝐹𝑖 = 𝑆𝑟 ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 𝑆𝑟 , where 𝐹𝑖 are the ith Fibonacci number.

So now if our friend plans that in the first rejection square he will spend 𝐹𝑟 units of time (for some
natural number r holding the above condition) , in the 2nd rejection rectangle he will spend 𝐹𝑟−1
units of time and so on and eventually will converge to D in 1 (= 𝐹1 ) units of time after he meets the
rth person.

For example if our friend is at 𝑝𝑜𝑜 , 1 1⁄2 hours before his interview a and notices that

1+1+2+3+5+8+13+21+34= 88 < 90 mins ,

He may take the initiative of getting to D after meeting 8 persons, where his 9th halt will be at D
itself. Where he will be spending 34 mins, 21 mins, 13 mins,…… and so on each rejection square
respectively.

And his path may look like

But what is the accuracy of his strategy or with what confidence he may take up the above
strategies,

In answering that question we need to notice certain things !!

First we need to calculate the general probability of finding D using the logarithmic spiral path,

Which may be a complication to find,

But the idea as it goes

𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒
P( reached D | n rejection squares are covered ) = 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒
.

Also the area covered in each rejection square can be the measure of suspect or the probability that
our friend don’t trust the information given to him before he constructs the rejection square. Now
𝜋
as we say in each rejection square of size r units, the area covered by our friend is 4 𝑟 2 square units,
then for rth rejection square,

P(our friend don’t trust the person whom he met at 𝑝𝑟−1

𝑜
) = 𝑝𝑟 ;
 𝜋 2
𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑟 𝜋
4
𝑝𝑟 = 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒
= 𝑟2
= 4
= 0.78.

Hence our friend will have 78% suspect on the persons he will be meeting at the beginning of each
rejection square.

Which is same for all the rejection square.

And so, taking that the ith rejection square is of sides 𝑟𝑖 units, and the area covered by our friend in
𝜋
the ith rejection square is 4 𝑟𝑖2 sq. units.

Hence the total area covered, after finding D in the nth rejection square is, where
𝜋
𝐴𝑟 = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑟𝑖2.
4

Hence, the probability of finding D in the nth rejection square, following the above strategy when the
initial sides of the rectangle are a and b units respectively, where n is any natural number.
𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒
P(reached D | n rejection squares are covered) = 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒

𝐴𝑟
= 𝑎𝑏
;

Now as we had mentioned that our friend drew a special kind of rectangle initially when he was
at 𝑝𝑜𝑜 . Let’s disclose its speciality. Our friend chose a and b (sides of rectangle) such that
𝑎+𝑏 𝑎
𝑎
= 𝑏
= 𝜑 , where 𝜑 = 1.61803398875, is Golden ratio.

And for this speciality, nearly 60% of the initial rectangle is always a square as 𝜑−1 = 0.6180, which
is 61% nearly. That’s why 60% chance of being not near was so important to him, and he managed to
find a logarithmic spiral path to locate his destination. Now as we know the mystery of the rectangle
we can take, a = 𝑟1 units, and b = 𝑟1 (𝜑 − 1) units.

And we should also notice that, the sides of the 2nd rejection square, will be 𝑟2 = 𝑟1 (2 − 𝜑)𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠 ,
for the 3rd rejection square the sides will be 𝑟3 = 𝑟1 (2𝜑 − 3)𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠, for the 4th rejection square the
sides will be 𝑟4 = 𝑟1 (5 − 3𝜑)𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠, and so on…..

Can you find the pattern?

If you can you just can write that for some nth rejection square, the sides will be

𝑟𝑛 = (−1)𝑘−1 𝑟1 (𝐹𝑛 𝜑 − 𝐹𝑛+1 ) 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠. Where 𝐹𝑘 is the kth Fibonacci number.

𝜋 𝑛 𝜋
𝐴𝑟 𝐴𝑟 ∑ 𝑟2 ∑𝑛 2
𝑖=1 𝑟1 (𝐹𝑖 𝜑−𝐹𝑖+1 )
2
𝜋
4 𝑖=1 𝑖
And hence, P(D) = = = =4 = ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝐹𝑖 𝜑 − 𝐹𝑖+1 )2 .
𝑎𝑏 𝜑𝑟1 2 𝜑𝑟1 2 𝜑𝑟12 4𝜑
We can use two well-known relation of Fibonacci sequence such as,

 2
𝐹𝑛2 + 𝐹𝑛+1 = 𝐹2𝑛+1 ;
 𝐹𝑛−1 𝐹𝑛+1 − 𝐹𝑛2 = (−1)𝑛 ;

To reduce the computational hazards, but it still remains quite difficult to compute.

But it is possible to compute the probability of reaching D after meeting exactly r persons and
travelling each jth rejection square in 𝐹𝑟−𝑗+1 unit of time. When for some r ,
∑𝑟𝑖=1 𝐹𝑖 = 𝑆𝑟 ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 𝑆𝑟+1 ; holds, where k unit time was there in his hand at the beginning.

Now let us define some events,

𝐴𝑗𝑜 ∶ ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑝𝑗𝑜 ; 𝑗 = 1,2, … ..

𝐷𝑟 : 𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑑 𝐷 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑒𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐹𝑟−𝑗−1 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 .

Hence,

P(𝐷𝑟 ) = 𝑃(𝐴𝑜1 ∩ … … .∩ 𝐴𝑜𝑟 )

= 𝑃(𝐴𝑜1 )𝑃(𝐴𝑜2 |𝐴𝑜1 )𝑃(𝐴𝑜3 |𝐴𝑜1 ∩ 𝐴𝑜2 ) … … … 𝑃(𝐴𝑜𝑟 | ⋂𝑟−1 𝑜

𝑖=0 𝐴𝑖 )
𝜋
=𝑝1 . 𝑝2 . 𝑝3 … … . . 𝑝𝑟 = ( )𝑟 .
4

Let’s take the example (we already mentioned) when his scheme is

Then for r=9,

𝜋
P(𝐷9 ) = ( 4 )9 =0.113.

There is only 11.3% chance or confidence that he will find his destination meeting exactly 9
persons!! It’s very intuitive, as more the person he meets and asks for instructions, less the
confidence he is having on the accuracy of his strategy.

Actually he may not have to meet 9 persons, he may reach his destination after just meeting 4-5
people actually and in that case you will have 29-38 % chance of finding his destination accurately
(which is not that bad as confidence on accuracy so to speak) given that, initially he was not very far
away from his destination.

So, we just actually discussed about a search technique, which we think can help you even when you
are lost, as we all know “ it is sometime good to get lost, in order to find new things “, just like our
friend found this search technique, while seeking a job.

THE END
References:

 Isoperimetric theorem, proofs by Jacob Steiner(1841) and alternate proof by Paul Erdos.
 Fibonacci(Viranka) numbers or sequence, golden ratio and Logarithmic spiral.
 Conditional Probability.