Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
FY2017-18 financials reported by e-tailers indicate that cash burn is on the rise. Losses of the
Flipkart group have averaged at `42 bn annually over FY2016-17, and seem to be trending
higher in FY2018. Losses posted by Amazon India have increased materially from `37 bn in
FY2016 to `67 bn in FY2018. Paytm had spun off a separate e-commerce entity in FY2017,
which posted a hefty loss of `18 bn in FY2018. Snapdeal was the outlier, with both revenues
and losses declining materially in FY2018. Walmart and Amazon have both stated their intent to
continue to invest in their Indian entities. Alibaba’s steady funds infusion into Paytm mirrors a
similar belief, in our view. Overall, losses may remain at elevated levels in FY2019 also as
investments into category expansion, customer acquisition and infrastructure continue.
Like e-tailers, cab aggregators also continue to invest substantially in their business. Ola posted
a loss of `38 bn in FY2018, 21% higher than the `31.5 bn loss posted in FY2017. While Uber
India’s financials are not separately available, we believe its losses may not be materially
different from those posted by Ola. A surge of capital raise by food delivery and grocery delivery
companies has materially altered the narrative of these companies – from a focus on unit
economics (evidenced in lowering of losses by Zomato in FY2018), these have started spending
heavily on customer acquisition once again.
Olx India, the local classifieds portal seems to have turned around operations, and posted
profits in both FY2017 and FY2018. Others such as Practo and Quikr story is still work in
progress; both these companies posted sizeable losses in FY2017 (FY2018 financials are not
available). Interestingly, Indeed, which has gained user traffic in the recruitment space, posted
revenues of `750 mn in FY2018, which were only 11% of revenues posted by Naukri.
Data pertaining to funds raised by e-commerce companies indicates that PE/VC funding is fairly
robust (until October 2018). The last couple of years have also witnessed a change in the nature
of fund providers – from a PE/VC-led funding environment, India has seen enhanced funding Kawaljeet Saluja
kawaljeet.saluja@kotak.com
from (1) global companies, which are investing in India with a long-term strategic intent
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0860
(Amazon, Walmart, Alibaba), and (2) Softbank, which is deploying its vision fund into promising
companies. We believe both these will keep the funding tap open for at least some time to Garima Mishra
garima.mishra@kotak.com
come, though overfunded business segments may see eventual consolidation (e-tail, food Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0862
delivery, etc.).
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
India Internet Software & Services
We collated data on financial performance of 30 companies (some of which are part of the
same group) in the e-commerce space over the FY2015-18 period. This data indicates that
while revenue growth is trending downwards (partly on account of base effect), losses for
this set of companies are stagnant. Combined losses of `191 bn in FY2017 were similar to
FY2016 levels. There are a few companies in this set, which have not reported FY2018
financials – once we account for these we believe aggregate losses in FY2018 would be
similar to FY2017.
Exhibit 1: E-tailers account for the largest chunk of losses posted by major Indian e-commerce
companies
Category-wise revenue and losses posted by e-commerce companies, March fiscal year-ends, 2015-18 (Rs mn)
Exhibit 2: Amazon, Flipkart losses on the rise, Paytm spending also up in a bid to gain market share
Details of financial performance of key e-tailers and their group companies, March fiscal year-ends, 2015-18
Overall revenue comparison between any two companies, say Flipkart and Amazon, is
difficult given different proportions of wholesale buy and sell activity carried out by their B2B
arms as well as double counting of revenues of subsidiaries such as Ekart and Amazon
Transport, which serve the marketplace entity.
Exhibit 3: Summary of financial performance of e-tailers and their group companies, March fiscal
year-ends, 2015-18
Food delivery companies such as Zomato and Swiggy will possibly see higher losses in
FY2019 compared to FY2018 as they seek to scale their delivery business manifold. Grocery
companies continue to grapple with thin margins and high last-mile delivery cost. This
necessitated a shift in Grofers’ business model from aggregator to inventory-led.
Sustained funding required over the next 2-3 years to sustain operations
An analysis of total losses incurred by the abovementioned companies indicates that
companies have used up ~10-70% of total funds raised to date. We note this calculation is
not comprehensive as (1) it is based on reported PBT, and while we have adjusted for large
impacts on fair valuation of financial assets, we have not adjusted for other non-cash
charges such as ESOP costs due to lack of availability of data, and (2) we have not accounted
for cash capex incurred by these companies.
Some of these companies in our consideration set have raised relatively large-sized rounds of
funding in the recent past, and hence may be well-capitalized for some time. However, the
trend of losses not coming down leads us to believe that these companies will continue to
need large-sized funding rounds. Reliance on funding providers thus remains large, and any
pullback in funding may lead to some sort of consolidation in the space.
Current funding environment remains benign, though funding is limited to larger companies
within each vertical. However, we note that the absolute funds inflow into e-commerce
would be higher than that suggested by our data as we have not included direct
investments by Amazon and Walmart into Amazon India and Flipkart, respectively.
Exhibit 8: Most e-commerce companies have used up 20-40% of total funds raised to date
Details of aggregate funds raised and losses incurred by select e-commerce companies, March fiscal year-ends
Source: MCA, Tofler, Companies, Bloomberg, Media reports, Kotak Institutional Equities
xx
3-month moving average of internet and e-commerce funding deals (US$ mn)
2018 average funding
2017 average funding
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Oct-14
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-15
Oct-16
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Source: Venture Intelligence, Kotak Institutional Equities
"Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which
the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Kawaljeet Saluja, Garima Mishra."
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for
which Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the
previous 12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
31.0% expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% 27.6% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to
22.2% deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce
19.2% = We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over
20% the next 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver
less than -5% returns over the next 12 months. O ur
10% 5.4%
target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.
2.5% 3.4% These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
0.0% applicable regulations. As of 30/06/2018 Kotak
0%
Institutional Equities Investment Research had
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
investment ratings on 201 equity securities.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.