Análisis de Sensibilidad

Análisis de Situaciones

Variable del Negocio Dimensión Esperado Pesimista Optimista

Inversión ($ MM) 500,000,000 500,000,000 500,000,000

Vida años 10 10 10
Ventas (ud/año) 1,000,000 600,000 1,200,000
Precio medio ($/ud) 1,200 1,200 1,200
Costo Variable unitario ($/ud) 500 500 500
Costo Fijo ($ MM/año) 300,000,000 300,000,000 300,000,000
Depreciación (%anual) 10% 10% 10%
Tasa de impuestos (%) 35% 35% 35%
Costo de Capital (%) 32% 32% 32%

Punto Muerto

Variables de Negocio

Variable del Negocio Dimensión Esperado Volumen 1 Volumen 2

Inversión ($ MM) 500,000,000 500,000,000 500,000,000

Vida años 10 10 10
Ventas (ud/año) 1,000,000 600,000 750,000
Precio medio ($/ud) 1,200 1,200 1,200
Costo Variable unitario ($/ud) 500 500 500
Costo Fijo ($ MM/año) 300,000,000 300,000,000 300,000,000
Depreciación (%anual) 10% 10% 10%
Tasa de impuestos (%) 35% 35% 35%
Costo de Capital (%) 32% 32% 32%

1,020,148,555 1,333 765,303

y = 1.333x - 1.020.148.555

Punto Muerto
$1,200,000,000.00

$1,000,000,000.00
f(x) = 1333.3385495991x - 1020148555.06336
$800,000,000.00

$600,000,000.00

$400,000,000.00

$200,000,000.00

$0.00
400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
($200,000,000.00)

($400,000,000.00)
 Flujo de Fondos
Esperado Pesimista Optimista
Io - 500,000,000 - 500,000,000 - 500,000,000
IT 1,200,000,000 720,000,000 1,440,000,000
(-)CV - 500,000,000 - 300,000,000 - 600,000,000
(-)CF - 300,000,000 - 300,000,000 - 300,000,000
(-)DEP - 50,000,000 - 50,000,000 - 50,000,000
(=) UG 350,000,000 70,000,000 490,000,000
(-)IMP - 122,500,000 - 24,500,000 - 171,500,000
(=) UN 227,500,000 45,500,000 318,500,000
(+)DEP 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000
FFN 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
VP $ 813,189,994.54 $ 279,854,574.70 $ 1,079,857,704.46
VPN 313,189,995 - 220,145,425 579,857,704
VPN(TIR) $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
TIR 54.80% 13.90% 73.40%

0 - 500,000,000 - 500,000,000 - 500,000,000

1 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
2 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
3 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
4 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
5 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
6 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
7 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
8 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
9 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
10 277,500,000 95,500,000 368,500,000
VPN $ 313,189,994.54 -$ 220,145,425.30 $ 579,857,704.46
TIR 55% 14% 73%

313,189,995 - 220,145,425 579,857,704

Flujo de Fondos
Volumen 3 Volumen 4
Io - 500,000,000 - 500,000,000
500,000,000 500,000,000 IT 1,200,000,000 720,000,000
10 10 (-)CV - 500,000,000 - 300,000,000
1,500,000 765,108 (-)CF - 300,000,000 - 300,000,000
1,200 1,200 (-)DEP - 50,000,000 - 50,000,000
 500 500 (=) UG 350,000,000 70,000,000
300,000,000 300,000,000 (-)IMP - 122,500,000 - 24,500,000
10% 10% (=) UN 227,500,000 45,500,000
35% 35% (+)DEP 50,000,000 50,000,000
32% 32% FFN 277,500,000 95,500,000

VP
VPN

Momento FFN Esperado FFN Volumen 1

uerto 0- 500,000,000 - 500,000,000
1 277,500,000 95,500,000
2 277,500,000 95,500,000
5991x - 1020148555.06336
3 277,500,000 95,500,000
4 277,500,000 95,500,000
5 277,500,000 95,500,000
6 277,500,000 95,500,000
7 277,500,000 95,500,000
8 277,500,000 95,500,000
9 277,500,000 95,500,000
000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 10 277,500,000 95,500,000
VPN $ 313,189,994.54 -$ 220,145,425.30
Ventas 1,000,000 600,000
TIR
- 500,000,000 - 500,000,000 - 500,000,000
900,000,000 1,800,000,000 918,130,108
- 375,000,000 - 750,000,000 - 382,554,212
- 300,000,000 - 300,000,000 - 300,000,000
- 50,000,000 - 50,000,000 - 50,000,000
 175,000,000 700,000,000 185,575,896
- 61,250,000 - 245,000,000 - 64,951,564
113,750,000 455,000,000 120,624,332
50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332

FFN Volumen 2 FFN Volumen 3 FFN Volumen 4

- 500,000,000 - 500,000,000 - 500,000,000
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
163,750,000 505,000,000 170,624,332
-$ 20,144,642.86 $ 979,859,269.34 $ 0.00
750,000 1,500,000 765,108