Wilkins regulator division unit sales per week by quarter

History through Q4 2004 Forecast Beginning Q1 2005

Revised October 7, 2004 Final File: FCSTMASTER

Prod Fiscal Year

Line Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
PVB 1999 1,788 3,748 5,115 3,167 179,634
2000 2,097 4,008 5,532 3,123 191,880
2001 2,116 3,523 5,921 3,374 194,136
2002 2,352 4,092 6,824 3,968 224,072
2003 2,721 4,449 7,184 4,531 245,506
2004 3,029 5,786 9,451 4,231 292,465
2005 4,120 7,480 9,341 5,983 350,012
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

FIRE 1999 36 43 18 13 1,432

VALVE 2000 47 32 34 24 1,777
2001 21 45 19 38 1,608
2002 36 38 28 43 1,886
2003 42 27 25 11 1,357
2004 22 26 28 29 1,371
2005 43 51 51 51 2,550
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
 Fire Fire
PVB PVB PVB PVB PVB Valve Valve
Year Qtr 12-720 34-720 1-720 34-420 1-420 Total Z2105 Z3000

2001 1 2,108 6,716 10,688 7,158 842 27,512 122 77

2001 2 2,516 11,510 21,688 7,034 3,050 45,798 139 240
2001 3 2,954 18,438 40,814 9,026 5,736 76,968 54 138
2001 4 2,224 10,456 19,510 7,254 4,414 43,858 78 275
2002 1 1,788 9,464 9,824 6,968 2,536 30,580 18 301
2002 2 2,512 12,942 21,848 9,156 6,740 53,198 224 133
2002 3 3,540 21,640 48,936 8,134 6,454 88,704 138 175
2002 4 3,666 11,650 24,640 6,958 4,676 51,590 193 251
2003 1 3,546 11,270 12,400 5,208 2,948 35,372 124 213
2003 2 5,596 15,322 23,692 6,806 6,424 57,840 112 150
2003 3 5,948 19,424 47,904 10,446 9,666 93,388 25 64
2003 4 4,892 13,310 26,990 7,960 5,754 58,906 37 57
2004 1 4,311 10,214 13,851 7,397 3,609 39,382 79 108
2004 2 6,637 20,983 31,507 9,043 7,049 75,219 71 105
2004 3 7,823 27,492 66,644 11,233 9,676 122,868 68 151
2004 4 6,652 19,535 17,337 7,496 3,976 54,996 54 114
2005 1 6,235 28,020 11,163 384 2,357 48,159 85 199
 Fire Fire Fire
Valve Valve Valve
Z3000IL Z3004 Z3004IL Total

1 20 50 270
- 144 67 590
3 25 32 252
36 59 49 497
(35) 48 132 464
- 35 103 495
- 15 42 370
10 50 63 557
2 32 170 541
3 46 40 351
139 26 77 331
3 18 22 137
49 23 26 285
52 26 90 344
2 62 77 360
84 44 86 382
140 66 90 580
 Forecast
12-mth
Part Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 1,400/day
09/28/03 01/04/04 04/04/04 07/04/04
01/04/04 04/03/04 07/03/04 10/02/04

12-720 4,311 6,637 7,823 6,652 8.70% 10.60% 37,100

34-720 10,214 20,983 27,492 19,535 26.70% 25.10% 87,850
1-720 13,851 31,507 66,644 17,337 44.20% 44.10% 154,350
34-420 7,397 9,043 11,233 7,496 12.00% 12.00% 42,000
1-420 3,609 7,049 9,676 3,976 8.30% 8.20% 28,700

Total 39,382 75,219 122,868 54,996 100.00% 100 350,000

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 615 1,157 1,920 873 1,400

Total 292,463 350,000

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 1,142 1,400
 Forecast
12-mth
Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
Part No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 10.2/day
9/28/2003 1/4/2004 4/4/2004 7/4/2004
1/4/2004 4/3/2004 7/3/2004 10/2/2004

Z2105 79 71 68 54 19.8% 21.2% 540

Z3000 108 105 151 114 34.9% 38.8% 990
Z3000IL 49 52 2 84 13.6% 11.8% 300
Z3004 23 26 62 44 11.3% 8.2% 210
Z3004IL 26 90 77 86 20.4% 20.0% 510

Total 285 344 360 382 100.0% 100.0% 2,550

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 4 5 6 6 10

Total 1,371 2,550

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 5 10
Unemployment Rate
6.5
Oct-00 3.9 Q1 2001 3.90 6.0
Nov-00 3.9 Q2 2001 4.23
5.5
Dec-00 3.9 Q3 2001 4.40
Jan-01 4.2 Q4 2001 4.83 5.0
Feb-01 4.2 Q1 2002 5.53 4.5
Mar-01 4.3 Q2 2002 5.70 4.0
Apr-01 4.4 Q3 2002 5.83 3.5
May-01 4.3 Q4 2002 5.73
3.0
Jun-01 4.5 Q1 2003 5.87

Apr-01
Oct-00
Dec-00

Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Feb-01
Jul-01 4.6 Q2 2003 5.83
Aug-01 4.9 Q3 2003 6.13
Sep-01 5.0 Q4 2003 6.13
Seasonal Adju
Oct-01 5.3 Q1 2004 5.87
Nov-01 5.6 Q2 2004 5.67
Dec-01 5.7 Q3 2004 5.57
Jan-02 5.7 Q4 2004 5.43 United States Unempl
Feb-02 5.7 Q1 2004 5.43 7.00
Mar-02 5.7 6.00
Apr-02 5.9 5.00
May-02 5.8 4.00
Jun-02 5.8 3.00
Jul-02 5.8 2.00
Aug-02 5.7 1.00
Sep-02 5.7 0.00
Oct-02 5.7
01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 03
Nov-02 5.9 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Dec-02 6.0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Jan-03 5.8
Feb-03 5.9 Seasonal Adjuste
Mar-03 5.8
Apr-03 6.0
May-03 6.1
Jun-03 6.3
Jul-03 6.2
Aug-03 6.1
Sep-03 6.1
Oct-03 6.0
Nov-03 5.9
Dec-03 5.7
Jan-04 5.7
Feb-04 5.6
Mar-04 5.7
Apr-04 5.5
May-04 5.6
Jun-04 5.6
 Jul-04 5.5
Aug-04 5.4
Sep-04 5.4
Oct-04 5.5
Nov-04 5.4
Dec-04 5.4
 Apr-03
Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02

Jun-03
Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
Feb-03

Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

United States Unemployment Rate

1 02 02 02 02 03 03 0 3 03 04 04 04 04 04
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Bank Prime Loan
10.00
Oct-00 9.50 Q1 2001 9.50
9.00
Nov-00 9.50 Q2 2001 8.62
Dec-00 9.50 Q3 2001 7.34 8.00
Jan-01 9.05 Q4 2001 6.57
Feb-01 8.50 Q1 2002 5.16 7.00
Mar-01 8.32 Q2 2002 4.75
Apr-01 7.80 Q3 2002 4.75 6.00
May-01 7.24 Q4 2002 4.75
5.00
Jun-01 6.98 Q1 2003 4.45
Jul-01 6.75 Q2 2003 4.25 4.00
Aug-01 6.67 Q3 2003 4.24
Sep-01 6.28 Q4 2003 4.00 3.00

Apr-01
Jun-01

Apr-02
Oct-00
Dec-00
Feb-01

Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01
Feb-02

Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03
Oct-01 5.53 Q1 2004 4.00
Nov-01 5.10 Q2 2004 4.00
Dec-01 4.84 Q3 2004 4.00
Jan-02 4.75 Q4 2004 4.42 Bank Prime Ra

B a n k P r im e L o a n R a te
Feb-02 4.75 Q1 2004 4.94
Mar-02 4.75
Apr-02 4.75
May-02 4.75
Jun-02 4.75
Jul-02 4.75
Aug-02 4.75
Sep-02 4.75 Average Quarterly R
Interest in Money and Cap
Oct-02 4.75 10.00
Nov-02 4.35 8.00
Dec-02 4.25 6.00
Jan-03 4.25 4.00
Feb-03 4.25
2.00
Mar-03 4.25
0.00
Apr-03 4.25
May-03 4.25
Jun-03 4.22
Jul-03 4.00 Bank Prime

Aug-03 4.00
Sep-03 4.00
Oct-03 4.00
Nov-03 4.00
Dec-03 4.00
Jan-04 4.00
Feb-04 4.00
Mar-04 4.00
Apr-04 4.00
May-04 4.00
Jun-04 4.01
 Jul-04 4.25
Aug-04 4.43
Sep-04 4.58
Oct-04 4.75
Nov-04 4.93
Dec-04 5.15
 Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03
Apr-03

Bank Prime Rate

Jun-03
Aug-03

Average Quarterly Rate of

Bank Prime Loan Rate

Oct-03
Dec-03

est in Money and Capital Markets

Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
 Housing Starts

Single UnitsMulti-Uni Total 600

1 ### 275 82 357
500
2 ### 274 74 348
3 ### 374 87 461 400
4 ### 341 88 429
300
5 ### 285 81 366
6 ### 293 76 369 200
7 ### 386 89 475
100
8 ### 361 98 459
9 ### 319 84 403 0

36982

37073

37438

37530
36800

36892

37165

37257

37347

37622

37712
10 ### 304 71 375
11 ### 406 84 490
Column J
12 ### 412 99 511 Column L
13 ### 377 95 472
14 ### 345 80 425
15 ### 456 84 540
16 ### 440 92 532
17 ### 370 90 460
 37257

37347

37438

Column J
Column L
37530

37622

37712

37803

37895

Column K
37987

38078

38169

38261
 Actual Sales UnemploymenInterest Rate Single U
2001 Q1 2,116 3.90 9.50 274
Q2 3,523 4.23 8.62 374
Q3 5,921 4.40 7.34 341
Q4 3,374 4.83 6.57 285
2002 Q1 2,352 5.53 5.16 293
Q2 4,092 5.70 4.75 386
Q3 6,824 5.83 4.75 361
Q4 3,968 5.73 4.75 319
Q1 2,721 5.87 4.45 304
Q2 4,449 5.83 4.25 406
2003
Q3 7,184 6.13 4.24 412
Q4 4,531 6.13 4.00 377
Q1 3,029 5.87 4.00 345
Q2 5,786 5.67 4.00 456
2004
Q3 9,451 5.57 4.00 440
Q4 4,231 5.43 4.42 370
 PREDICTED SALES
Multi-Units Actual Sales
74 1647.27
87 4552.46 Year Q1
88 5221.35 2001 2,116
81 3360.81 2002 2,352
76 2399.02 2003 2,721
89 5179.80 2004 3,029
98 5891.68
84 3713.92
71 1672.69 Intercept 7224.61233
84 4829.62 Unemployment Rate -2448.74559
99 6311.25 Interest Rate -984.38557
95 5625.75 Single Units 9.98140382
80 3812.82 Multi-Units 143.101687
84 5982.91
92 7209.61
90 6141.05
Q2 Q3 Q4
3,523 5,921 3,374
4,092 6,824 3,968
4,449 7,184 4,531
5,786 9,451 4,231

Q1 Housing starts
Weekly sales UnemploymInterest Rate Total units
2001 2116 3.9 9.5 348
2002 2352 5.533333 5.1566666667 369
2003 2721 5.866667 4.45 375
2004 3029 5.866667 4 425
 Actual sales Unemployment Rate Interest Rate Single UnMulti-Units
Q1 21 3.90 9.50 274 74
Q2 45 4.23 8.62 374 87
2001
Q3 19 4.40 7.34 341 88
Q4 38 4.83 6.57 285 81
Q1 36 5.53 5.16 293 76
Q2 38 5.70 4.75 386 89
2002
Q3 28 5.83 4.75 361 98
Q4 43 5.73 4.75 319 84
Q1 42 5.87 4.45 304 71
Q2 27 5.83 4.25 406 84
2003
Q3 25 6.13 4.24 412 99
Q4 11 6.13 4.00 377 95
Q1 22 5.87 4.00 345 80
Q2 26 5.67 4.00 456 84
2004
Q3 28 5.57 4.00 440 92
Q4 29 5.43 4.42 370 90
Multi-Units

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2001 21 45 19 38
2002 36 38 28 43
2003 42 27 25 11
2004 22 26 28 29
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R 65535
Standard E 0
Observatio 4

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regressio 3 486161 162053.7 #NUM! #NUM!
Residual 0 0 65535
Total 3 486161

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%
Intercept -36136.6969255427 0 65535 #NUM! -36136.7 -36136.7 -36136.7
Unemploym 4109.1188650306 0 65535 #NUM! 4109.119 4109.119 4109.119
Interest Ra 1589.8870607919 0 65535 #NUM! 1589.887 1589.887 1589.887
Total units 20.4689835471 0 65535 #NUM! 20.46898 20.46898 20.46898

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Weekly sales Residuals

1 2116 0.00
2 2352 0.00
3 2721 0.00
4 3029 0.00
Upper 95.0%
-36136.7
4109.119
1589.887
20.46898