MATH 101

Elementary Statistics for the Health Sciences

Lab Activity 8
Estimation

LIZA T. BILLONES, MSc

Department of Physical Sciences and Mathematics

College of Arts and Sciences
University of the Philippines Manila
Confidence Interval (CI) Estimation
Objec&ve: To es&mate the value of the parameter

•  Point es&mate – a single value that es&mates the

parameter value

e.g. is the point es,mate of the popula,on mean,

x µ
p is the point es,mate of the popula,on propor,on, P

•  Interval es&mate – a range of values with a level of

confidence that such a range contains the parameter value

e.g. 95% CI for : (65.3, 75.6)

µ

We say, we are 95% confident that the true mean

is within the interval (65.3, 75.6).
Confidence Interval Estimate for μ;
σis given or n > 30:
Given the Confidence Level (CL) - usually 90%, 95%, or
99%, an interval estimate forμ is given by:

X = sample mean
n = sample size
⎛σ ⎞ σ = given standard deviation
X ± (ZCL )⋅ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ n⎠ ZCL= z-value given inside the table
corresponding to the given CL
found at the bottom row
“Column Classification”.

•  The confidence interval is valid when σ is given.

•  When σ is not given, s (sample standard deviation) is used
as long as n > 30.
Confidence Level and z-score
Confidence Z CL
Level
90% Z 90% = 1.645
95% Z 95% = 1.96
99% Z 99% = 2.576
The
t-Table
This table also
gives the
z-score
given the
confidence level:

Locate the given
Confidence Level
from the
bo>om “column
classifica,on”,
then find the
z-score from the
row above it.
5
Confidence Interval Estimate for μ;
σis not given or n < 30:
Given the Confidence Level (CL), an interval estimate
forμ is given by:
X = sample mean
n = sample size
⎛ s ⎞ df = n - 1
X ± (tCL, df ) ⎜ ⎟ s = standard deviation computed
⎝ n⎠ from the sample
tCL, df = t-value given inside the table
•  The confidence corresponding to the given CL
interval is valid for found at the bottom row “Column
approximately normal Classification”, and with the given
df found on the first column “Row
populations.
Classification”.
CI Estimation for μ: Procedure
i.  Compute the point estimate: X

ii.  Specify the confidence level: 90%, 95%, or 99%

iii.  Determine the multiplier (m): zCL or tCL,df

s

iv.  Compute the standard error (s.e.): σ/ n or s/ n

v. Compute the margin of error: m.e. = (m)(s.e.)

vi.  Determine the CI estimate: X ± m.e

CI Estimation for μ: Example
The mean serum creatinine level measured in 12 patients
24 hours after they received a newly proposed antibiotic
was 1.2 mg/dl with standard deviation of 0.4 mg/dl.
Give the 95% CI for the mean serum creatinine level of
patients who were given the proposed antibiotic.

95% CI: (0.947, 1.453)

CI Estimation for μ: Solution
a.  Give the 95% CI for the mean serum creatinine level of
patients who were given the proposed antibiotic.

i.  Point estimate: X = 1.2

ii.  Confidence Level: 95%
iii.  Multiplier: t95%, 11 = 2.201
iv.  Standard error, (s.e.): s / n = 0.4 / 12 = 0.11547
v. Margin of error: m.e. = (2.201)(0.115) = 0.253
vi.  95% CI: 1.2 ± 0.253 = (0.947, 1.453)
CI Estimation for μ: Solution
Interpretation of the CI:
We are 95% confident that the true mean serum creatinine
level of patients who are given the proposed antibiotic is
within (0.947, 1.453).

Notes:
•  The 95% confidence interval (0.947, 1.453) with n=12 may
or may not capture the true mean serum creatinine level.
•  This procedure produces intervals that capture the
unknown population parameter about 95% of the time.
•  Thus we say we are 95% confident that it worked this
time.
CI Estimation for μ1-μ2
Independent Samples:
1.  Normally distributed, variances are given or n1, n2 ≥ 30;
2 2 In case of unknown variances,
σ σ the sample variances are used
(x 1 )
− x 2 ± zCL
n1
1
+
n2
2
to estimate the population
variances.
2. Normally distributed, variances are not given and n1, n2<30

s12 s22
(x 1 )
− x 2 ± tCL,df
n1
+
n2
2
⎛ s12 s22 ⎞
⎜ + ⎟
⎝ 1n n 2 ⎠
df = 2 2
⎛ s12 ⎞ ⎛ s22 ⎞
⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
n
⎝ 1⎠ n
⎝ 2 ⎠
+
n1 − 1 n2 − 1
CI Estimate for P
A confidence interval for a population proportion P with
sample proportion p, based on a sample size n:

p(1− p) x
p=
p ± zCL n
n p = probability of success
x = number of successes
n = sample size

Necessary conditions:

•  Both np and n(1-p) are greater than 10.

•  Sample is random.
CI Estimate for P: Example
In a community, 39 of a random sample of 1018 interviewed
said they believe on “albularyo”. Determine the proportion of
those “who believe in albularyo” in this community.
x 39 (p)(1− p) (0.39)(0.61)
p= = = 0.39 s.e. = = = 0.0153
n 1018 n 1018
90% CI:
0.39 ±1.645(0.0153) or 0.39 ± 0.025 ⇒ (0.365, 0.415)
95% CI:
0.39 ±1.96(0.0153) or 0.39 ± 0.030 ⇒ (0.360, 0.420)
99% CI:
0.39 ± 2.575(0.0153) or 0.39 ± 0.039 ⇒ (0.351, 0.429)
CI Estimate for P: Example
Interpretation:
•  We are 90% confident that the proportion of all
residents in the community who believe in
“albularyo” is between 0.365 and 0.415.

•  We are 95% confident … 0.360 and 0.420.

•  We are 99% confident … 0.351 and 0.429.

Note:
In the interpretation, the parameter, target population,
and characteristic of interest should be specified.
CI Estimate for (P1-P2)

p1 (1− p1 ) p2 (1− p2 )
( p1 − p2 ) ± zCL +
n1 n2
x p1 = propor,on of success of sample 1
p1 = 1 x1 = number of successes of sample 1
n2 n1 = sample size of sample 1

x p2 = propor,on of success of sample 2

p2 = 2 x2 = number of successes of sample 2
n2
n2 = sample size of sample 2

•  For two independent samples of sizes n1 and n2.

•  Compute the sample proportions, p1 and p2.
CI Estimate
Case Study for
10.3(P -P ):
Comparing
1 2 Example
proportions
Case Study 10.3 Comparing proportions
Would you date someone with a great personality
Would
even you dateyou
though someone
did not with a great
find them personality
attractive?
even though you did not find them attractive?
Women: .611 of 131 answered “yes.”
Women: .61195% of 131 answered
confidence “yes.”
interval is .527 to .694.
95% confidence interval is .527 to .694.
Men: .426 of 61 answered “yes.”
Men: .426
95% of 61 answered
confidence “yes.”
interval is .302 to .55.
95%
Confidence confidence
interval interval isin
for the difference .302 to .55.
population
Confidence interval
proportions for the
of women anddifference
men whoin population
would say yes.
proportions of women and men who would say yes.
.611(1 − .611) .426(1 − .426)
(.611 − .426) ± z * .611(1 − .611)+ .426(1 − .426)
(.611 − .426) ± z * 131 + 61
131 61
Copyright ©2004 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc., updated 30
by Jessica Utts Feb 2010
Copyright ©2004 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc., updated 30
by Jessica Utts Feb 2010
CICase
Estimate for
95% 10.3
Study (P1-P2): Example
confidence
Comparinginterval
proportions
Would you date someone with a great personality
• Aeven
95%though
confidence
you didinterval
not findfor theattractive?
them difference is
.035 to
Women .334ofor131
: .611 3.5% to 33.4%.
answered “yes.”
• We are 95%
95%confidence
confidentinterval is .527
that the to .694.
population
Men : .426 of
proportions of61men
answered “yes.” who would date
and women
someone 95% confidence
they interval
didn’t find is .302 todiffer
attractive .55. by
Confidence
between interval
.035 and for.334,
the difference in population
with a lower proportion
proportions
for men thanoffor
women and men who would say yes.
women.
• We can conclude that.611(the
1 − .two
611) population
.426(1 − .426)
(.611 − .426) ± z * +
proportions differ because
131 0 is not in 61
the interval.

Copyright ©2004 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc., updated 30

Copyright ©2004
by Jessica UttsBrooks/Cole,
Feb 2010 a division of Thomson Learning, Inc., updated 31
by Jessica Utts Feb 2010
Lab Exercise 8
.

Show complete solution:

The 6-step procedure shown in slide 7.

Lab Exercise 8
.

1.  In 25 men with rheumatoid arthritis the observed mean of

human calcitonin (HCT) was 33.8 pg/mL. In a group of
healthy men it was reported that the standard deviation of
HCT was 23.6 pg/mL.

Determine the 95% CI estimate for the mean HCT of

men with rheumatoid arthritis.

(Note: The HCT standard deviation of the healthy men is taken

as the estimate for the population standard deviation of HCT for
men with rheumatoid arthritis.)
Lab Exercise 8
.

2.  The arterial blood gas pH is a useful measure in

assessing disturbances in respiratory function. A sample
of 25 young healthy adults had a mean of 90 and a
standard deviation of 7 mmHg.

Determine the 90% CI estimate for the mean arterial

blood gas pH.
Lab Exercise 8

3. Experimental results with a new drug administered to a

random sample of 100 adults who were suffering from
nervous tension showed that 70 received relief.

Determine the 99% CI estimate of the proportion of

adults suffering from nervous tension who would
receive relief if given this new drug.
Lab Exercise 8
4. In a large hospital for the treatment of the mentally
retarded, a sample of 15 individuals with Mongolism
yielded a mean serum uric acid value of 4.5 mg/100ml and
a variance of 1.2 (mg/100ml)2. In a general hospital, a
sample of 10 normal individuals of same age and sex were
found to have a mean value of 3.4 mg/100ml and a
variance of 0.97 (mg/100ml)2 .

Give the 95% CI estimate for the difference in mean

serum uric acid value of the mentally retarded and the
normal individuals.
Lab Exercise 8
5.  In a study to estimate the proportion of residents in a
certain city and its suburbs who favor the construction of a
nuclear power plant, it is found that 63 of 100 urban
residents favor the construction while only 59 of 125
suburban residents are in favor.

Estimate the difference between the proportion of

urban and suburban residents who favor construction
of the nuclear plant with 95% confidence level.