SPE 122915

Exploitation Plan Design Based on Opportunity Index Analysis in

Numerical Simulation Models
A. Molina, A. Rincon, Repsol YPF

Copyright 2009, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the 2009 SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference held in Cartagena, Colombia, 31 May–3 June 2009.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper have not been
reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its
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Abstract
The Opportunity Index Analysis is an intelligent method that uses numerical simulation models to identify zones with high
potential of production, which with conventional reservoir engineering often represents a too complex and time consuming
problem. This method reduces dramatically the required resources and the uncertainty to define these zones, being a practical
tool to support the field development plan.

The producer potential of an area is calculated based on the basic rock and fluid properties, as well as the energy capacity
associated with the reservoir pressure. All those parameters are combined and normalized, to generate the “Opportunity
Index” between 0 and 1, capable to identify the zones of greater potential.

In order to calculate this index, three main variables are considered. First, the flow capacity of the rock, which combines the
thickness of the cell with its effective permeability (k*h); the second is the hydrocarbon pore volume mobile (HCPVm),
associated to the rock-fluid system, and the third is the gradient pressure of the reservoir, defined as the difference between
the reservoir and the abandonment pressures.

One of the products of the methodology are the time depending Opportunity Index Maps by layer, that represents a
invaluable tool in the optimization of secondary recovery processes as well as to define unsweep zones due to the low
volumetric sweep efficiency or pressure equilibrium between wells. Those zones will be candidates for infill drilling, new
wells geologically optimized or well production-injection patterns improvement.

The methodology was implemented with a commercial numerical simulator and applied in three mature reservoirs of the
Neuquén Basin of Argentina. 3D maps were generated to identify sweet spots in the fields with time in order to define the
most appropriate locations that may still have reserves to be produced, and a optimize exploitation plans were designed.

The Opportunity Index Analysis can play an important role in identifying new opportunities in mature fields and optimize the
resources. In this paper, the new methodology is introduced and its application in three mature fields was demonstrated.

Introduction
The Opportunity Index is a variable calculated as a function of the basic rock and fluid properties, as well as the energetic
capacity derived from the reservoir pressure which combined can discover the zones of higher prospectivity to be exploited
increasing the success in the design of the development plan. To reach this objective, it is necessary to rely on a numerical
simulation model that allow to calculate the Opportunity Index for every time step which can go from the beginning of the
reservoir exploitation, its development, forecasts up to his depletion. This method of calculation allows selecting and ranking
the locations to drilling as well as determining the opportunities of recompletion of existing wells using maps in 2D and
visualizations in 3D. The most important moment to implement this index is at the end of the history match or the forecast of
production to design the immediate exploitation plan

The calculation of this index can be done for more than one sedimentary facie, block or regions for having different
production mechanisms, abnormal pressures or other characteristics that define them as independent saturation regions,
nevertheless the methodology will be explained based on a single saturation region, for a multiregional case the procedure
can be repeated an many times as is required.
2 SPE 122915

Method

Opportunity Index (Iopor):

To calculate this index they are considered three compound variables very important. The first one is the capacity of flow
(KH) which is associated with the rock, the second one with the porous volume saturated of mobile oil (HCPVm) associated
with the rock-fluid system and the last one with the energy or remaining pressure of the reservoir. The first variable is the
flow capacity which combines the thicken of the cell with the absolute permeability, the second one is the HCPVm which
tries to show the magnitude degree of the porous volume saturated of hydrocarbon that combined with the saturation of
mobile oil, is capable of moving in the porous media, this saturation of oil does not consider the residual oil saturation.

The last variable is the remaining pressure or operational window of energy of the reservoir which is define as the difference
between the reservoir and abandon pressure at each cell. The abandonment pressure depends basically on the method of
production which is a value very near to the minimal bottom flowing pressure that can be reached by the method of
production that is being used or it is planed to be implemented; the more aggressive it is the production method the less will
be the abandonment pressure.

The expression of this index is calculated by a root that contains 3 secondary indexes. The degree of the root in this equation
is defined by the number of secondary indices that compose it. This equation gives the same weight to each index and its
mathematical expression is the following one:

I oppor = 3
I KH * I HCPV
HCPVm * I P_oper

where,
I opor = Opportunity Index, (fraction).
IKH = Relative Flow Oil Capacity Index, (fraction).
IHCPVm = Porous Mobile Volume Index, (fraction).
I P-oper = Operation Pressure Index (fraction)

Each of these indexes is normalized and varies from 0 to 1. In all our cases, 0 represents a bad response and 1 an excellent
one. In order to normalize the index, it will be necessary to know the maximum and minimum values of each variable. To
calculate every index the following equation will be used with the nomenclature of the numerical simulator ECLIPSE, for
being the simulator used in this work:

I KH = PERMX * OILKR * NTG * DZ

I HCPVm
HCPV = (SOIL – SOWCR) * PORO * NTG * DZ

I P_oper = PRESSURE Pa

where,
PERMX = Horizontal Permeability, (mD).
OILKR = Oil Relative Permeability, (fraction).
NTG = Relation Net to Gross, (fraction).
DZ = Thickness, (meters).
SOIL = Current Oil Saturation, (fraction).
SOWCR = Residual Oil Saturation, (fraction).
PORO = Porosity, (fraction).
PRESSURE = Pressure, (Kg/cm2)
Pa = Abandonment Pressure, (Kg/cm2)
SPE 122915 3

The following step is to determine the values of minimum and maximum for each of the properties: KH, HCPVm and
P_Oper. The following example (Table N º 1) shows those for a simulation model built by YPF for a reservoir located in the
Neuquén basin:

Table N° 1. Property ranges used in the Index determination.

Property Minimum Maximum

KH 1.2 150
HCPVm 0.00012 0.0125
P_Oper 5 136

After the range values where obtained, the following conditions are established for each cell property: KH, HCPV y P_Oper.

If property < minimum ⇒ Index = 0

If minimum ≤ property < maximum ⇒ Index = Straight Line Equation
If property ≥ maximum ⇒ Index = 1

The Graphic N º 1 shows those conditions, where the equation of this straight line is defined by 2 points. In the X axis the
variable is placed and in the Y axis its corresponding index. The following example illustrates the case for the IP_Oper. The
2 points that define the oblique straight line correspond to (P_oper min; 0) and (P_oper max; 1). For the rest of the cases the
points that define the straight lines will be:

:
IHCPVm (HCPVm min; 0) y (HCPVm max; 1)

IKH (KH min; 0) and (KH max; 1)

I P_oper

1
y = 0,0076x
IP_OP - 0,0382
= 0,0076x(P_OP) - 0,0382
0,8

0,6
IP_OP

0,4

0,2

5 kg/cm2 136 kg/cm2

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
P_OP (Kg/cm2)

Graph N°1. Determination of Index I P_oper

4 SPE 122915

In the same way the IKH and IHCPVm are estimated. When these equations are computed by the simulator, graphs for each
of the indexes are obtained, as they are shown in Figure N º 1.

IKH IHCPV
IHCPVm

IP_OP
IP_OPER

Figure N º 1. IKH, IHCPVm and I P-oper in the Simulation Model.

As can be seen in the previous figure, a 3D can show the variable for each layer where the legend of colors goes from the
blue up to the red, where blue represents the less favorable value and red the most favorable one. Already with these results it
can be seen the prospectivity of the rock, the porous volume saturated of mobile hydrocarbon and the remaining energy of the
reservoir. After defining the indexes of each property, the following step is to combine the 3 values in order to determine the
Opportunity Index for the whole simulation model. For being the product of 3 indexes (they change from 0 to 1), they are
normalized using a root which exponent is equivalent to the number of terms that compose the base of the root. In our case, 3
components turn out to be a cubic root.

Iopor = 3
I KH * I HCPV
HCPVm * I P_oper

Once the simulator combines mathematically these indexes in the way it has been described, the result are shown in the
Figure N°2:
SPE 122915 5

I_Oppor
I_Opor

Figure N º 2. Opportunity Index in the Simulation Model.

In this case the opportunity index has 3 components with the same weight value, which means, that every component weights
33.33 % of the whole. Nevertheless, in many cases every component of the equation can have a different value of certainty
which means that the weight of every component changes. In order to taking into account this consideration a weighted
opportunity index was generated using the followed procedure.

Weigthed Opportunity Index (I oppo- w ):

The Opportunity Index can be optimized assigning an individual weight factor to each component according to his degree of
certainty, depending on the quantity and quality of the information as well as the interpretation that has been done to define
every variable these will have a weight in the equation. Then, a multiplier weight that varies from 0 to 1 was used, where 0
means that there is no reliability in the certainty of this component and 1 when the certainty of this component is guaranty.
The new expression for the Weighted Opportunity Index will be:

I Oppor_w = (A* I KH ) + (B* I HCPV +

HCPVm) (C*I P_oper)

where:

A: KH weighting coefficient.
B: HCPVm weighting coefficient.
C: P_oper weighting coefficient.

This weighting factor must to be fixed by the specialists who constructed the model and use their own criteria; nevertheless in
this work we have designed a matrix that allows defining the coefficients A, B and C, which can help to define the weighting
factor for KH, HCPVm and P_oper. Basically, the method consists of answering 5 questions for variable which range goes
from 0 to 10 where 0 means that the variable is not reliable, bad or does not exist and 10 is reliable, excellent and complete.
6 SPE 122915

This matrix of questions looks to evaluate the reliability or definition of the calculation of every variable according to the
quantity and quality of the used information and their interpretation. The result is the weighting coefficient for every variable
which the matrix turns into a value between 0 and 1, and the addition of the three values must be equal to 1. The Table N º 2
shows an example of this matrix.

Table N ° 2 Matrix to evaluate the Weighting Coefficients that define the degree of certainty.

Range of 1 a Weighting
Certainty degree definition 10, when:
1=Bad y
10=excellent Coefficient
Existence of cores with special studies and standard studies for all the statigraphic
column (porosity, absolute permeability, capilar pressure, relative permeability,
1 6
wettability, electrical properties, others)

Information of permeability logs and thicknesses of the rock for all reservoir.
2 8
KH

0.40
Incorporation in the model of information of the correlation core/logs
3 8
4 Definition of "cut-off" for discrimination of the Net pay 9

5 Existence of data of relation KH derived from interpretation of Welltest analysis. 7

1 Definition/calibration core/logs of porosity's values 8

HCPVm

2 Definition of "cut off" for discrimination of “net pay " 6

0.35
3 Definition of values of Sw and Sg according to applies 5
4 Definition of contacts of original fluids in places 7
5 Existence and trustworthiness of a static model in 3D 7
1
Existence of data base with sufficient data of pressure of the reservoir such as
4
static pressures, build ups and if they have been validated, plotted and processed

2 Existence in organized form of production database of wells of the reservoir (oil,

7
water and gas)
P_oper

3
Accomplishment of match between the pressure's history/production of the well to 0.25
5
determine its property to the reservoir and degree of compartmentalization

4 Match of pressure-production with the history and events of the reservoir to

4
determine consistency of the data.
5 Documentation of the results of the analyses of the history's pressure and
4
production
95 1.00

Table N ° 3: Weighting Coefficient.

Weighting
Coefficient Variable
Coefficient
A KH 0.40
B HCPVm 0.35
C P_oper 0.25
Total 1.00

The weighting coefficients defined in the Table N ° 3, shows that variable that has major reliability is the KH which
weighting coefficient resulted in 0.40, whereas the least reliable is the pressure of operation (P_oper) with 0.25. Once these
coefficients are generated, the equations are constructed and are loaded on the numerical simulator who will realize the
calculations to populate the grid with these indexes. When the Iprosp_w index was calculated, we proceed to check the zones
SPE 122915 7

that present major opportunities, and selected to be analyzed in the numerical simulator and verify the potential of each one
of the locations to evaluating. A criterion to start the analysis of the results of the opportunity index is the following one:

Weighting Opportunity Index:

Between 0 and 0,20 Bad

Between 0,20 and 0,40 Regular
Between 0,40 and 0,60 Acceptable
Between 0,60 and 0,80 Good
Between 0,80 and 1 Excellent

Due to the numerical model can do the calculation of this index for every time step, the analysis of the information also can
ratify or contradict the position where there were perforated the first wells, but its main utility is to be used at the beginning
of the forecasts of the model, as well as in the time steps of the short and medium term that help to optimize the exploitation
scheme. For the case with which we have illustrated this work, there were used opportunity index values equal or bigger
than 0,40, to design the prediction scenarios and the optimum development plan. When the reservoir is new or in
development stage, a wide percentage of the cells have Opportunity Index values bigger than 0,60, nevertheless for mature
reservoirs are expected values between 0,20 and 0,60. Based in 3D weighting Index of opportunity calculated by the
numerical model, the Figure N º 2 shows a section with the most prospective zones in the colors red and yellow.

I_Oppor_w
I_Opor_Pond
Figure N º 3 Simulation Model Sector showing the Weighted Opportunity Index.

Conclusions

The index of opportunity method allows the rapid identification of the reservoir regions with mayor potential of production
using the information available in a numerical simulation model. A detailed analysis of the results can be using to confirm the
convenience of the selection and ranking of detected opportunities. The final product is a 3D-model that represents the
opportunity index to identify the zones of higher production potential which will allow selecting and ranking the new
locations and workover opportunities. This index also can be used as a tool in the optimization process of secondary
8 SPE 122915

recovery as well as to define zones of low mobility which mobile hydrocarbon remains due to the low volumetric sweep
efficiency or pressure balance between wells, candidates to be contact by infill drilling, optimization of well arrangement and
very specially to propose geologically optimized wells.

References
1. YPF Internal Report: “Plan de desarrollo del activo Loma Alta Sur, Provincia de Mendoza, Argentina”, Feb. 2008.

2. Antonio Camargo: “Jerarquización de Oportunidades” presented in the “Primeras Jornadas Técnicas de Petróleo”,
Maracaibo, Venezuela, Nov. 2000.

3. Norman Yepes Guerra, and R. Narayanasamy: “Well Location Selection from Multiple Realisations of a Geomodel
Using Productivity Potential Maps – A Heuristic Technique” paper SPE N° 102903 presented in “Primer Congreso
y Exposición Internacional del Petróleo”, Cancun Q.R. México, Aug 30 - Sep 03, 2006.