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A Theory on Urban Resilience to Floods—A Basis for Alternative Planning Practices


Author(s): Kuei-Hsien Liao
Source: Ecology and Society, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Dec 2012)
Published by: Resilience Alliance Inc.
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26269244
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Liao, K. 2012. A theory on urban resilience to floods—a basis for alternative planning practices. Ecology
and Society 17(4): 48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05231-170448

Insight
A Theory on Urban Resilience to Floods—A Basis for Alternative
Planning Practices
Kuei-Hsien Liao 1

ABSTRACT. River cities require a management approach based on resilience to floods rather than on resistance. Resisting
floods by means of levees, dams, and channelization neglects inherent uncertainties arising from human–nature couplings and
fails to address the extreme events that are expected to increase with climate change, and is thereby not a reliable approach to
long-term flood safety. By applying resilience theory to address system persistence through changes, I develop a theory on
“urban resilience to floods” as an alternative framework for urban flood hazard management. Urban resilience to floods is defined
as a city’s capacity to tolerate flooding and to reorganize should physical damage and socioeconomic disruption occur, so as to
prevent deaths and injuries and maintain current socioeconomic identity. It derives from living with periodic floods as learning
opportunities to prepare the city for extreme ones. The theory of urban resilience to floods challenges the conventional wisdom
that cities cannot live without flood control, which in effect erodes resilience. To operationalize the theory for planning practice,
a surrogate measure—the percent floodable area—is developed for assessing urban resilience to floods. To enable natural
floodplain functions to build urban resilience to floods, flood adaptation is advocated in order to replace flood control for
mitigating flood hazards.
Key Words: flood adaptation; flood control; flood hazard management; resilience-based management; resilience surrogate;
resilient cities; urban floodplains; urban resilience

INTRODUCTION increase with more intense storms whose exact natures are
Flood hazards challenge river cities around the world, despite unpredictable (Alley et al. 2007). An alternative mitigation
many of them being protected by extensive flood-control approach is needed, which this paper addresses by developing
infrastructures, such as levees, dams, and channelization. The a flood hazard management concept that focuses on resilience.
twenty-first century has already seen large-scale flood
disasters in Bangkok, Thailand (2011); Brisbane, Australia
The idea of resilience has a long history in ecology and
(2011); Guangdong, China (2007); New Orleans, USA (2005);
engineering, but its application to natural hazard management
Dresden, Germany (2002); and Taipei, Taiwan (2001), among
is relatively recent (Berkes 2007). What defines resilience to
others. The industrialized world has heavily relied on flood
floods remains ambiguous, despite the increasing attention
control to mitigate flood hazards, yet it is criticized for harming
given to the concept of resilience in flood hazard management.
riverine ecosystems and increasing long-term flood risk
In this paper I address urban built environment and riverine
(Burby et al. 2000, Smits et al. 2006). Alternative management
flooding to develop a theory on “urban resilience to floods”.
concepts have emerged, emphasizing the integration between
There are two major resilience interpretations—engineering
land and water management and of structural and nonstructural
resilience and ecological resilience (Holling 1996). I explain
measures (e.g., Schneidergruber et al. 2004, Associated
why the latter is a more appropriate theoretical framework for
Programme on Flood Management 2009). Nevertheless,
management and for defining urban resilience to floods. In
scholars continue to assert the indispensability of flood-
order to operationalize the theory for planning practices, a
control infrastructure for cities (e.g., Birkland et al. 2003,
resilience surrogate measure is proposed for assessing urban
Godschalk 2003), which reflects the entrenched management
resilience to floods. The theory and the measure together
paradigm of controlling nature.
indicate that flood adaptation should replace flood control in
Designed and operated under an obsolete assumption that the order to build urban resilience to floods.
pattern of flow variability remains unchanged over time (Milly
et al. 2008), flood-control infrastructure is not a reliable INTERPRETATIONS OF RESILIENCE
mitigation approach in the face of climate change uncertainties Engineering resilience and ecological resilience are two
(Zevenbergen and Gersonius 2007). Cities that depend on distinct interpretations (Holling 1996). Discerning their
flood-control infrastructure can resist floods only up to a fundamental differences is important because they lead to
certain magnitude, thereby these cities are ill-prepared for divergent problem definitions, focuses, and approaches when
capacity-exceeding extreme floods, which are expected to applied to flood hazard management.

1
Department of Architecture, School of Design and Environment, National University of Singapore

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Engineering resilience and ecological resilience and processes, and returning to the previous ecosystem is
In engineering, resilience is concerned with disturbances that extremely difficult if not impossible (Holling 1973, Scheffer
threaten the functional stability of engineering systems, which et al. 2001). Building on the alternative paradigm of multi-
are often linked with low probabilities of failures or, in the equilibria/nonequilibrium, Holling (1973) defines resilience
case of failure, quick recovery to normal levels of functionality as the system’s ability to absorb disturbances and still persist.
(Wang and Blackmore 2009). Such resilience depends on four This ecological resilience concept focuses on persistence, or
properties: robustness, or the physical strength to withstand a remaining within the same regime defined by the same
disturbance without functional degradation; redundancy, or processes, structures, feedbacks, and identity (Walker et al.
the extent to which system components are substitutable; 2004). Because systems do not operate near equilibrium,
resourcefulness, or the capacity to identify problems and resilience is associated with the change the system can tolerate
mobilize needed resources; and rapidity, or the capacity to and the ability to reorganize or renew (Carpenter et al. 2001).
restore the system in a timely manner (Bruneau et al. 2003). It is measured by the magnitude of the disturbance the system
This engineering resilience concept encompasses both can undergo before shifting to a different regime (Gunderson
resistance to and recovery from disturbances, although the and Holling 2002).
measurement is focused exclusively on recovery—the faster
In addressing different types of systems, several disparities
the full functionality is restored, the greater the resilience (for
exist between engineering and ecological resilience (Table 1).
example, Hashimoto et al. 1982, Hollnagel et al. 2008, Fig.
They derive mainly from the different assumptions of system
1). Engineering resilience thus emphasizes the ability to
dynamics regarding the number of possible regimes (Holling
bounce back to the original condition when relaxed from stress
1996, Fig. 2). The assumption behind engineering resilience,
(Wang and Blackmore 2009).
which is about maintaining the optimal state of functionality,
is congruent with the ecological paradigm of equilibrium,
Fig. 1. A conceptual representation of engineering presuming only one regime with an idealized stable state as
resilience, modified after Wang and Blackmore (2009). the norm. The paradigmatic divergence reflects different
Resilience of a damaged system is measured by the time it perceptions towards normalcy. In the engineering resilience
takes (t1-t0 for Case A) for the system to recover to 100% concept any change from the optimal state is deviant, while in
of its previous functionality. The longer it takes, the less the ecological resilience concept any fluctuation within the
resilient the system is (Case B). regime is normal because systems are inherently dynamic
(Holling 1973).
Essentially, engineering resilience is the ability to maintain
stability—remaining unchanged in system state or having
minimum fluctuation; whereas ecological resilience is the
ability to survive, regardless of the state. They are two
different, even contradictory, system properties. Systems with
high engineering resilience may have low ecological
resilience; low engineering resilience may introduce high
ecological resilience (Holling 1973, 1996).
Community resilience to natural hazards
The two resilience concepts receive increasing attention in
hybrid systems, such as social–ecological systems (e.g.,
Berkes and Folke 1998) and socio-technical systems (e.g.,
Hollnagel et al. 2008). In natural hazard management, which
deals with the interaction between humans and environmental
fluctuations (Mileti 1999), engineering resilience prevails in
In ecology, Holling (1973) introduces the term resilience to current definitions of community resilience. Few authors
describe observed ecosystem dynamics. It challenges the define it without implying an optimal reference state, and it is
conventional ecological paradigm of equilibrium that assumes frequently viewed as the capacity to withstand and recover
a predetermined stable state for every ecosystem, to which it quickly from disasters (Table 2). For example, Birkland and
eventually returns after a disturbance. Empirical studies show Waterman (2009) propose three features of community
that some ecosystems never stabilize due to frequent resilience—damage prevention, speedy recovery, and
disturbances. Multi-equilibria also exist when the ecosystem preservation of community functionality—arguing that the
stabilizes after a disturbance but in a different state. It means more stresses the community can bear to preserve
the ecosystem is characterized by a different set of structures functionality, the faster the recovery is.

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Table 1. Differences between engineering resilience and ecological resilience.

Engineering resilience Ecological resilience


Theoretic construct Resilience = resistance + recovery Resilience = tolerance + reorganization
Assumption One equilibrium (one regime) Multiple equilibria (multiple regimes)
Predictability Unpredictability and uncertainty
Concerns Deviation from the ideal level of system functionality or Regime shift
stable state
Focus Stability/consistency—returning quickly to the equilibrium Persistence—remaining within the current regime
Measurement The speed of recovery to the previous stable state The magnitude of disturbance the system can undergo before
shifting to a different regime
Disturbance role Disturbances as threats Disturbances as learning opportunities

Discussions on community resilience place an overwhelming


Fig. 2. The paradigmatic difference between engineering emphasis on recovery (e.g., Vale and Campanella 2005,
and ecological resilience can be illustrated by the ball-and- Lamond and Proverbs 2009). In many cases, resilience is taken
cup heuristic (Scheffer et al. 1993, Walker et al. 2004). The to mean exclusively the capacity to bounce back to the
cup represents the region in the state space or "basin of predisaster state, to differentiate from resistance, which means
attraction", in which the system tends to remain, and the ability to withstand a disturbance without disruption (e.g.,
includes all possible values of system variables of interest. Etkin 1999). In flood hazard management, for example,
The ball represents the state of the system at any given time. resistance means flood prevention by flood-control
The engineering resilience concept assumes only one infrastructure, while resilience is the rate of return from a
regime, hence only one possible basin of attraction; and the flood-impacted state to the normal one (De Bruijn 2004).
very bottom of the basin represents the ideal stable state.
ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE AS THE
The ecological resilience concept assumes multiple regimes,
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
hence more than one basin of attraction. The system may
Applying the engineering resilience concept to communities
move about within the basin, never settling at the bottom; it
that are subject to natural hazards is fundamentally
may also cross a threshold and settle in a new basin of
problematic because of the outdated equilibrium paradigm.
attraction. The notion of engineering resilience is concerned
Recovery is often interpreted as returning to predisaster
with whether the system can remain at the bottom of the
conditions, implicitly assuming an optimal reference state,
basin; while the notion of ecological resilience is concerned
which nevertheless does not exist in coupled human–natural
with whether the system can remain within the current basin
systems (Berkes 2007). Urbanized floodplains are such
(Holling 1996).
systems, where climate, socioeconomic trends, built systems,
and riverine processes affect flood hazards and disasters. They
operate like evolving ecosystems rather than engineering
systems and are characterized by complex behaviors
associated with nonlinearity, emergence, uncertainty, and
surprise (Liu et al. 2007). Such dynamic systems will not stay
at a predetermined state. To be sure, moving quickly from a
chaotic state to an organized one after a disaster is paramount,
but it is unconstructive to restore the predisaster
socioeconomic activities and built environments that are
vulnerable in the first place (Klein et al. 2003). What remains
unchallenged in this recovery notion is the preoccupation with
stability. Stability becomes problematic when forced at
temporal and spatial scales, at which the system is inherently
dynamic (Cumming et al. 2006).
The ecological resilience concept is a more appropriate
framework for flood hazard management, for it builds on a
more realistic paradigm of multi-equilibria, focusing
pragmatically on persistence in a world of flux (Adger et al.
2005). Thanks to studies on integrated social–ecological
systems (e.g., Berkes et al. 2003), the ecological resilience

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Table 2. Some existing definitions of community resilience that are akin to engineering resilience.

Definition of resilience Reference


Sustainable and resilient communities are defined as societies that are structurally organized to minimize the effects Tobin (1999:13)
of disasters, and at the same time have the ability to recovery quickly by restoring the socioeconomic vitality of the
community.
Resilience is the capacity to prevent or mitigate losses and then, if damage does occur, to maintain normal living Buckle et al. (2000:13)
conditions as far as possible, and to manage recovery from the impacts.
Resilient cities are capable of withstanding severe shock without incurring either immediate chaos or permanent Godschalk (2003:136)
damage, and of recovering from the impacts of natural hazards.
A resiliently built environment should be designed, located, built, operated, and maintained in ways that maximize Bosher (2008:13)
the ability of built assets, associated support systems (physical and institutional), and the people that reside or work
within the built assets to withstand, recover from, and mitigate the impacts of extreme natural and human-induced
hazards.
The notion of resilience encompasses predisaster planning and warning systems, emergency handling procedures, Lamond and Proverbs (2009:63)
and postdisaster reconstruction. Urban resilience encompasses the idea that towns and cities should be able to
recover quickly from major and minor disasters.

concept has become a sophisticated resilience theory, legitimize flood control. As flood-control infrastructure
addressing complex human-nature couplings. It is prevents most floods, cities only learn painfully from rare,
instrumental for addressing flood hazards that arise from the catastrophic ones with high prices. In the resilience-based
interaction between riverine and urban dynamics. flood hazard management, periodic floods are learning
opportunities for cities to become better fit for extreme floods.
From maintaining stability to building resilience
Two key arguments in resilience theory would shift the Overall, resilience theory suggests a paradigm shift in flood
paradigm of flood hazard management. First, resilience arises hazard management that should focus on building resilience
from adapting to inherent variability, uncertainty, and surprise as opposed to maintaining stability. Because flooding is
(Folke 2003). Coupled human–natural systems lose resilience inherently a part of the normal urban dynamics, resilience is
when the inherent variability is artificially suppressed to neither flood resistance nor recovery to predisaster conditions
promote stability through command-and-control management —both are simply means to an end of stability. Here, resilience
(Holling and Meffe 1996, Holling et al. 2002). This suggests is the tendency to survive, which is itself an end.
that forcing floodplains to be inundation-free and building
socioeconomic functionality upon forced environmental URBAN RESILIENCE TO FLOODS
stability results in resilience erosion. It thus challenges the bias Two issues must be confronted before building the theory of
towards maintaining a dry floodplain and steady urban resilience to floods based on resilience theory that
socioeconomic activities. Flood hazard management based on originates in ecology. The resilience of ecological systems is
resilience theory would begin with acknowledging periodic concerned with system collapse; yet such a concern for cities
floods as inherent environmental dynamics, by which is almost irrelevant, as history shows that most cities that have
socioeconomic activities on floodplains are inevitably experienced catastrophic destructions have persisted and even
affected. flourished (Vale and Campanella 2005). A city remaining as
a city means little to those who have lost their lives and to
Secondly, resilience theory holds that periods of gradual those forced into permanent hardship (Klein et al. 2003).
development and sudden changes complement each other Moreover, individual people matter in hazard management,
(Folke 2006). As demonstrated in frequently disturbed although individual creatures are irrelevant to ecological
ecosystems, resilience is borne out of experiencing and systems that build resilience through system-level adaptation
learning from disturbances (Holling 1973, Gunderson and where less-fit individuals are continuously replaced
Holling 2002). Research into communities relying on natural (Gunderson 2010). Thus, urban resilience to floods
resources also indicates that resilience to large, unpredictable encompasses dual concerns: the flood safety of individual
disturbances derives from allowing smaller ones to enter the citizens and the maintenance of the city’s current identity.
system (Berkes and Folke 1998, Berkes et al. 2003). It suggests
that flooding itself is an agent for resilience because each flood A definition
experience creates a chance for cities to adjust internal Resilience theory has been applied to community resilience,
structures and processes and to build knowledge, leading to stressing the capacity to absorb recurrent hazard impacts and
diverse coping strategies cumulated over time (Folke 2006, reorganize while undergoing change so as to maintain
Smit and Wandel 2006). This contrasts with the attitude toward fundamental structures, processes, identity, and feedbacks
floods as being threatening, idiosyncratic events that (Table 3). Likewise, urban resilience to floods is defined as

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Table 3. Some existing definitions of community resilience, without emphasizing recovery.

Definition of resilience Reference


The resilience of the coast is its self-organizing capacity to preserve actual and potential functions under changing Klein et al. (1998:263)
hydraulic and morphological conditions.
Resiliency is the ability to withstand an extreme natural event without suffering devastating losses, damage, Mileti (1999:32-33)
diminished productivity, or quality of life, and without a large amount of assistance from outside the community.
Resilience is the ability of an actor to cope with or adapt to hazard stress. It is a product of the degree of planned Pelling (2003:48)
preparation undertaken in the light of potential hazard, and of spontaneous or premeditated adjustments made in
response to felt hazard, including relief and rescue.
Resilience is the capacity of linked social–ecological systems to absorb recurrent disturbances such as hurricanes or Adger et al. (2005:1036)
floods so as to retain essential structures, processes, and feedbacks.
Disaster resilience could be viewed as the intrinsic capacity of a system, community, or society that is predisposed to Manyena (2006:446)
a shock or stress to adapt and survive by changing its nonessential attributes and rebuilding itself.
Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still Berkes (2007:284)
retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.
A resilient system is able to absorb hazard impacts without changing its fundamental functions; at the same time, it is López-Marrero and Tschakert
able to renew, reorganize, and adapt when hazard impacts are significant. (2011:230)

the capacity of the city to tolerate flooding and to reorganize accommodate—not resist—flooding. If damage and
should physical damage and socioeconomic disruption occur, disruption had occurred, remaining in the regime counts on
so as to prevent deaths and injuries and maintain current reorganization—reestablishment of socioeconomic order.
socioeconomic identity. It can be conceptualized as the While the return to preflood conditions is irrelevant, the speed
capacity to remain in a desirable regime while experiencing a of reorganization matters because prolonged socioeconomic
flood. The desirable regime is defined by a set of variables disruption can eventually push the city into an undesirable
reflecting aspects such as livelihood security, economic regime (Walker and Westley 2011). Overall, urban resilience
performance, and mobility that collectively represent the city’s to floods is defined by floodability and reorganization, not
socioeconomic identity (Adger 2000, Cumming et al. 2005, flood resistance and recovery that engineering resilience
Gunderson 2010). Urban resilience to floods is measured by would suggest.
the flood magnitude the city can undergo until it reaches a
threshold and shifts to an undesirable regime. Fig. 3. The tolerable range of socioeconomic state change
Unlike that for biophysical systems, a regime is socially rather dictates the shape or size of the basin of attraction that
than scientifically defined. The desirable regime reflects the represents the desirable regime. A narrow range means a
city’s tolerable range of socioeconomic state changes, which smaller, shallow basin (Case A), while a wider range leads
matters to urban resilience to floods (Fig. 3). A wider range to a larger, deeper basin (Case B).
implies that the city considers a greater degree of
socioeconomic fluctuations normal, hence a larger/deeper
basin of attraction; whereas a narrow range leads to a smaller/
shallow basin of attraction, and a flood could cause a regime
shift easier (Carpenter et al. 2001, Walker et al. 2004).
A city is considered to have shifted to an undesirable regime
when experiencing a flood disaster involving widespread
human, economic, and environmental changes that exceed the
city’s own ability to cope (United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction 2004). The undesirable regime
is characterized by significantly reduced resources and assets,
large-scale population displacement, livelihood disruption,
and loss of security (Adger 2000, Berkes et al. 2003). Once in Key properties
it, moving to a better regime or developing a socioeconomic Resilience is frequently associated with self-organization,
identity similar to the previous one is costly or impossible. adaptive capacity, and redundancy (Carpenter et al. 2001, Low
et al. 2003, Tompkins and Adger 2004). Self-organizing
Essentially, urban resilience to floods is the capacity to avoid systems are resilient to disturbances because of the distributed
flood disaster. To prevent physical damage and socioeconomic character (Heylighen 2001). Adaptive capacity can increase
disruption from occurring, it would depend on the city's resilience over time, as it is associated with learning—the
floodability, which is defined here as the physical ability to ability to adjust to changing internal demands and external

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conditions (Gunderson 2000, Carpenter and Brock 2008). to waterborne when a flood occurs, it would ensure mobility
Redundancy provides insurance against total system failure. to keep the city functional. Flexibility also promotes adaptive
These concepts can be translated into the following key capacity, for rigidity prevents timely adjustments.
properties of urban resilience to floods.
Urban resilience to floods and urban river resilience
Localized flood-response capacity Resilience of ecological systems plays an important role in
Self-organizing cities, where each citizen and public manager human ability to cope with hazards. This is because it concerns
could act immediately to avoid damage, are more agile in the persistence of ecosystem services, the loss of which limits
coping with flooding and are thus more resilient than cities the options to adapt (Adger 2000, Berkes et al. 2003,
that rely on centralized mechanisms such as flood-control Gunderson 2010). Ecosystem goods and services, such as
infrastructure. If disrupted, they can also quickly reorganize fisheries and clean water, provided by rivers and other
because of the internal ability to clean up and fix damage freshwater ecosystems are highly valuable (Costanza et al.
without waiting for external help from the central government 1997). While it is clear why ecosystem services are important
or aid agencies, which do not always act soon enough. to communities that are dependent on local resources for
livelihoods (Adger et al. 2005), it is not obvious how resilience
Timely adjustments after every flood of local urban rivers relates to urban resilience to floods in
The adaptive capacity contributing to increasing urban modern cities. With significantly altered hydrology,
resilience to floods is associated with the ability to learn from geomorphology, biochemistry, and species composition,
each flood, i.e., making timely behavioral, physical, and many urban rivers today are arguably already in socially–
institutional adjustments to be better prepared for the next ecologically undesirable regimes, too degraded to offer
flood. Every flood entails something new, e.g., debris ecosystem services (Paul and Meyer 2001, Groffman et al.
deposition at unexpected locations. By understanding new 2003). Although drawing on services generated elsewhere
phenomena and making necessarily adjustments, the city buffers the impact of local declines, the degrading urban river
incrementally increases floodability. It is a learning-by-doing still affects urban resilience to floods. Flooding of a polluted
process, where novelty is involved in the adaptation to avoid river increases damage and complicates reorganization;
repeating the previous configuration (Walker et al. 2004, moreover, if a flood disrupts the imports of goods and services,
Adger 2006, Berkes 2007). the city would have no access to critical resources such as
Redundancy in subsystems potable water. Resilience of urban rivers matters to urban
Here, redundancy is more than duplication of the same element resilience to floods as the ultimate insurance against the most
in an engineering sense, e.g., the freeboard added on top of socioeconomically disruptive floods.
the levee height required for confining a certain flow. It entails Urban resilience to floods and flood resistance
diversity and functional replication across scales (Peterson et Conventional wisdom assumes that flood resistance is
al. 1998, Adger et al. 2005). For example, a water supply necessary for cities; however, resilience theory suggests that
network with redundancy would incorporate both regional and it erodes urban resilience to floods (Holling and Meffe 1996).
localized systems and utilize different water sources. A flood In effect, flood-control infrastructure puts the city in one or
hazard management system with redundancy would comprise the other contrasting conditions: dry and stable, or inundated
a diversity of measures for mitigation, preparedness, response, and disastrous. With flood-control infrastructure in place,
and reorganization. The flood-response capacity would be flooding results exclusively from the infrastructure's failure
distributed across the levels, i.e., individuals, communities, and is more hazardous than if there were no flood-control
and the municipality, such that when the capacity of one level infrastructure (Tobin 1995), such that the natural process of
is overwhelmed, the city can still count on the others. flooding becomes a synonym to disaster. Cities that are
Underpinning the aforementioned three properties are dependent on flood-control infrastructure are highly resistant
diversity and flexibility. Short-term adjustments and long- —but not resilient—to floods because they have physically
term adaptation are impossible without a diversity of options adapted to the artificially expanded dry-and-stable conditions
to choose from (Folke et al. 2002, Davidson-Hunt and Berkes to become intolerant of wet conditions (Fig. 4).
2003). Diversity is particularly key to resilience because it In cities that are dependent on flood-control infrastructure, the
enables adaptation by providing seeds for new opportunities river’s high flows are mostly confined between levees or held
(Berkes 2007). For example, a diverse economy or livelihood behind the upstream dam. The flood frequency is dramatically
is known to facilitate reorganization after disasters (Berke and reduced and river dynamics are largely unnoticed. Each flood
Campanella 2006). Flexibility allows the self-organizing city that is prevented is a loss of opportunity for learning (Klein et
to preserve overall functionality during flooding by making al. 1998, Colten and Sumpter 2009). Little flood experience
immediate changes at smaller, faster scales in its subsystems leads to low awareness of flood risk among citizens (Correia
(Allen et al. 2005). For example, if the public transportation et al. 1998), who are too accustomed to operating under the
system could quickly switch its service mode from land-based

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Fig. 4. A comparison between the resistant and resilient city. The resistant city is dependent on flood-control infrastructure,
functioning only in the dry conditions and having little tolerance of socioeconomic state changes, i.e., narrow tolerable range.
This leads to a small basin of attraction of the desirable regime, whose size is indicated by the shaded area; hence low urban
resilience to floods. On the contrary, the resilient city tolerates flooding and much greater fluctuation in socioeconomic
conditions, thus having a larger basin and consequentially greater urban resilience to floods.

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dry-and-stable conditions, and know little about how to cope Assessing urban resilience to floods requires surrogates for
with inundation once the flood-control infrastructure fails. floodability and the capacity for quick reorganization. The
Furthermore, flood-control infrastructure’s structural rigidity former is addressed here. One way to find resilience surrogates
and large scope leave little flexibility for making timely for coupled human–natural systems is to look for the internal
adjustments to constantly changing boundary conditions properties that alter resilience over time (Bennett et al. 2005).
(Pahl-Wostl 2002). The existence of flood-control Slowly changing properties are often good candidates because
infrastructure also prevents the development of a diversity of they define the system’s underlying structure, thus controlling
flood-coping measures because the development of such the shape of the basin of attraction, threshold location, and
measures is too expensive (Castonguay 2007). Whereas flood- system’s position within the state space (Carpenter et al. 2001,
control infrastructure as a system may incorporate a diversity Scheffer et al. 2001). For river cities, a property defining
of engineering measures, each with structural redundancy, floodability would be one that reflects the physical and
there is little diversity and cross-scale redundancy with regards hydrologic changes of the floodplain, over which human
to physical measures. Cities that are dependent on flood- interests conflict with flood processes to give rise to flood
control infrastructure tend to address only the river and not disasters.
the built environment because flood-control infrastructure, as
a centralized measure, creates a false sense of security that Functions of natural floodplains
precludes the need for localized flood-response capacity. Floodplains are essentially a part of the river, which naturally
function to convey and store the share of high flows and
As flood-control infrastructure erodes urban resilience to sediments that spill overbank. During large floods the amount
floods over time, a flood could easily cause high casualties of floodplain conveyance and storage is significantly greater
and severe damage, complicate reorganization that relies than that of the channel (Leopold 1994). Floodplain storage
heavily on external forces, and push the city to an undesirable occurs when the water is disconnected from the main channel
regime, as was demonstrated in New Orleans after Hurricane flow and is slowly released after the peak has passed (Richards
Katrina in 2005 (Colten and Sumpter 2009). Flood-control and Hughes 2008). Longer term storage takes place on the
infrastructure also decreases urban resilience to floods through surface of floodplain wetlands and through infiltration into the
its very function—i.e., prevention of periodic flooding. floodplain soils, which can store large amounts of water during
Periodic flooding is a critical mechanism to maintain the wet periods (Keddy 2000). Floodplain vegetation represents
ecological functions and high biodiversity of floodplain rivers hydraulic roughness and exerts significant impacts on the
(Junk et al. 1989). The altered flood regime, with which native flood process. For example, the overall patchiness increases
species are unfamiliar, affects the resilience of river the heterogeneity of flow patterns; dense vegetation dampens
ecosystems and contributes to system collapse (Poff et al. the flood wave and traps sediments during minor floods; the
1997, Folke 2003). Therefore, flood-control infrastructure floodplain forest delays the release of floodwater stored on the
compromises the river's ability to provide ecosystem services surface though frictional effect, thus further enhancing
(Tockner et al. 2008), which in turn limits the city's options floodplain storage (Tabacchi et al. 2000, Richards and Hughes
to adapt. 2008). Because of these hydrologic and hydraulic functions,
The argument that flood resistance erodes urban resilience to floodplain rivers have lower flood peaks and velocities, and
floods echoes the widely supported notion of risk transference, smaller flood discharges in downstream locations, compared
which holds that resistance to natural hazards is simply to other types of rivers (Leopold 1994).
postponing them, only to build up risks and worsen disasters As a floodplain becomes urbanized, its functions are often
later (Etkin 1999, Mileti 1999). Because flood resistance replaced by artificially enhanced channel capacity, drainage
compromises urban resilience to floods, persistence resulting efficiency, and upstream impoundment. At the same time, the
from the flood being resisted—in effect no flood occurs— river sees higher peak flows with increased downstream
should not be considered resilience. discharges (Criss and Shock 2001), leading to higher flood
risk. The urbanized floodplain becomes less tolerant of
OPERATIONALIZING THE THEORY flooding for there is less land functioning to convey and store
Turning theory into practice requires measuring urban floodwater and sediments.
resilience to floods. The growing interest in managing for
social–ecological resilience has prompted research into Floodable lands and percent floodable area
methods for assessing potential resilience to future To assess floodability, I propose a new concept—the floodable
disturbances (e.g., Bennett et al. 2005, Cumming et al. 2005). land—which is defined as a land capable of storing or
Because resilience is not directly observable, it must be conveying floodwater and sediments without incurring
inferred from surrogates—forward-looking proxies for future damage locally and elsewhere. Floodable lands can be of any
resilience—although it is recognized that it is not possible to land use and cover, thus not exclusively referring to
represent resilience with one surrogate alone (Carpenter et al. undeveloped or green areas such as wetlands. A green area
2005). with contaminated soils, for example, would not be floodable;

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a residential lot with the building raised on poles may be.


Floodable lands contribute to the city’s flood tolerance, as a Fig. 5. The hypothetical dynamic of percent floodable area
flood is benign where it is floodable. With a large combined (PFA). During the process of floodplain urbanization
area, floodable lands can lower flood peaks to reduce the (trajectory A), the city increasingly relies on flood control
overall flood impact. Everything else being equal, the more for flood safety, moving along the upper solid line and
floodable lands the higher the floodability, which can be shifting dramatically at the threshold T1 (PFA = X1) to the
quantified by the percentage of the total area of floodable lands lower solid line. Passing T1, the floodplain has lost the
within the floodplain area, or percent floodable area. The natural functions to handle floodwater, and the city enters
floodplain area here refers to the entire valley floor between the regime where the river is degraded and the
valley walls (Anderson et al. 1996). It is not defined by any socioeconomic dynamics become disrupted and chaotic
flood recurrence interval because larger floods are always once a flood occurs. The city could move back to the regime
possible. where the river is healthy, and the city can self-organize to
remain orderly during flooding by building resilience
It is worth noting that with a percent floodable area of 100% through increasing percent floodable area and decreasing the
a city could still be damaged by a rare, extreme flood, in which reliance on flood control. It is possible to significantly
case reorganization plays a major role in urban resilience to increase percent floodable area by making large and small
floods. I hypothesize a positive but nonlinear relationship open spaces multifunctional to convey and store floodwater
between percent floodable area and floodability because at a during wet seasons, and by retrofitting existing buildings to
higher percent floodable area its marginal contribution to be elevated, floatable, or wet-proofed. During the resilience-
floodplain storage and conveyance should decrease building process (trajectory B), the city moves along the
significantly (Douglas et al. 2007). I further hypothesize that lower solid line, but reaching X1 is not sufficient to restore
there may be hysteresis involved in the relationship between the same degree of resilience before the shift (T1). The city
percent floodable area and urban resilience to floods (Fig. 5), needs to go further, passing T2 (PFA > X2) in order to
as seen in other complex systems (Scheffer et al. 2001, Alberti move back to the more resilient regime.
and Marzluff 2004). The city may have to “go back further”
in reestablishing floodplain functions in order to shift to a
regime where the city is resilient and able to self-organize to
remain orderly during most floods, with a healthy urban river
to provide ecosystem services. As a surrogate for urban
resilience to floods, percent floodable area represents a city’s
physical fitness for flooding that matters to flood safety.
Improving percent floodable area to build resilience can be a
management approach that is an alternative to increasing the
protection standard of flood-control infrastructure for
enhancing resistance.

RESILIENCE-BASED FLOOD HAZARD


MANAGEMENT
Enhancing resistance to one disturbance in complex adaptive
systems often creates vulnerabilities to others (Holling and
Meffe 1996, Roberge 2002). Flood control ignores complexity
and unpredictability, exacerbating flood risk and creating resilience to floods is essentially a process of adaptation—
ecological disasters. Today many cities are not flood-safe instead of fighting the river, cities live with periodic floods,
because they are premised on the artificial environmental allowing them to enter the city to learn from them, so as to
stability that is forced by flood-control infrastructure and become resilient to extreme ones. It is a paradigm shift from
tolerate little socioeconomic fluctuation (Fig. 4). The resistant to resilient cities with the management agenda
management paradigm of control must be abandoned (Folke redirected from “safety against floods” to “safety at floods”
2003, Anderies et al. 2006). For long-term flood safety, cities (Schielen and Roovers 2008). Urban resilience to floods lies
need to switch to resilience-based flood hazard management. in a principle that has long been called for—working with the
Living with floods river rather than against it (e.g., White 1945, Leopold 1977).
Resilience derives from living with disturbances (Gunderson It also echoes the ancient philosophy of “living with floods”
2000, Walker et al. 2004). Studies have shown that that is still practiced today in rural communities in countries
communities that are adapted, not resistant, to disturbances such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Egypt (Laituri 2000,
are long enduring (Berkes et al. 2003). Building urban Berkes 2007). Distinguishing between benign frequent floods

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and disastrous rare ones, these communities adapt lifestyles Flood adaptation as the mitigation approach would correct
and built environments to river dynamics, harnessing the several problems induced by flood control. First, it would not
postflood productivity boosts in fisheries and agriculture transfer the city’s own problem elsewhere, as levees and
(Cuny 1991). channelization do by reducing floodplain retention and
increasing flow velocity to increase downstream flooding, and
Although relatively uncommon in the industrialized world,
as flood-control dams do by submerging upstream areas to
similar practices can be seen in management schemes that
displace people. Second, it would not increase long-term flood
restore floodplain functions in rural areas to prevent
risk, as there is no threat of flood-control infrastructure failure,
downstream flooding, such as the Yolo Bypass for Sacramento
through which damages by larger floods would be more
River in the United States, the “Room for the River” project
catastrophic than if there were no flood-control infrastructure
in the Netherlands, and the “Making Space for Water” policy
(Tobin 1995). Third, it would not conflict with, but rather could
in England (Moss and Monstadt 2008, Opperman et al. 2009).
reconcile with ecological preservation and restoration of urban
While at the watershed scale the notion of living with floods
rivers by allowing ecologically critical periodic floods to
is increasingly accepted, it is dismissed in cities where lands
reconnect the channel and floodplain (Nienhuis and Leuven
are deemed culturally and economically too valuable to be
2001). Resilience-based management supports the recovery
inundated. That cities and floods are incompatible is an
of river health because the ability of the river to provide
entrenched perception, further enhanced by the argument that
ecosystem services promotes urban resilience to floods.
retreating from floodplains is the fundamental solution to flood
hazards. Although logical, this prohibitionist discourse can The process of incorporating change continuously gives rise
close down options and prevent creative solutions (Antrobus to resilience (Holling 1986). Therefore, resilience-based
2010). Because retreat is politically difficult in highly management is itself adaptive and a learning-by-doing
populated areas and people intuitively assume there is no room process, where specific objectives are open to adjustment after
for flooding, cities have no choice but to continue relying on each flood. In resilient cities, the built environment is adaptive
flood-control infrastructure. However, cities are too valuable in two ways: it is fit for known river dynamics based on historic
to reject the paradigm shift to live with floods in order to patterns; it is also easily adjustable to changing boundary
survive. conditions, such as climate change and population growth.
The resilient city is always a work in progress.
Flood adaptation
The assertion that cities and floods cannot coexist shows a Redefining the norm
lack of imagination, resulting from being too accustomed to Managing resilience is an agenda of multiple scales, because
the kind of built environment not adapted to floods. With a resilience is controlled by dynamics at scales above and below
shift in perception and creative planning and design, cities can the scale of the system in question (Walker et al. 2004,
eventually phase out flood-control infrastructure and live with Anderies et al. 2006). The city’s subsystems affect urban
floods by retrofitting the built environment and adding resilience to floods by controlling its position in the basin of
redundancy, diversity, and flexibility into every subsystem. attraction. Compare different mitigation approaches for
Open spaces can become multifunctional to convey and store example: flood control places the city very close to the
floodwater during wet seasons (Douglas et al. 2007). threshold between desirable and undesirable regimes during
Infrastructure can be redesigned into a collection of diverse high flows, because the city tolerates little inundation; whereas
functional elements that are flexible in operation (Fiering flood adaptation places the city further away. Other internal
1982). Buildings can be remodeled to be elevated, floatable, factors that affect urban resilience to floods includes river
or wet-proofed (Guikema 2009). health, economic status of households, institutional flexibility,
design and operation of buildings and critical infrastructure,
It would require a change in city design. An initiative called
crisis support network, etc. The subsystems are
“Water Sensitive Cities” is unfolding to integrate water
simultaneously influenced by economic, cultural, biophysical,
management into urban planning and design to promote
and climatic dynamics at regional and even global scales,
resilience to climate change (Howe and Michell 2012), with
which change the shape of the basin of attraction to affect
Rotterdam being a notable example of flood adaptation
urban resilience to floods. Managing for urban resilience to
(Jacobs 2012). But a paradigm shift in city design is also
floods thus requires attending to these cross-scale
necessary—it should be based on dynamism instead of
interactions.
presumed environmental stability. Floodplains are constantly
changing, rearranged not only by inundation but also by A large-scale factor critically affecting urban resilience to
channel migration in which land could become the site of a floods is the norm of socioeconomic dynamics. Cities that are
flowing river and vice versa. Forgoing stability and perpetuity, dependent on flood-control infrastructure are nonresilient not
building structures that are adaptive, removable, and only because they are too close to the threshold but also
temporary are the most realistic way to live on floodplains. because the current desirable regime is small/shallow (Fig. 3),

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Ecology and Society 17(4): 48
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resulting from little tolerance of socioeconomic fluctuation which we know much less than what makes a system resilient
(Fig. 4). The norm in modern society is the execution of (Walker et al. 2004, Pelling and Manuel-Navarrete 2011). The
unabated socioeconomic activities, such that when a flood move towards creating resilient cities is a research frontier.
occurs and goods and services are not produced it is called
economic loss, and that when mobility is limited by a flood it
is considered inconvenient. However, the ideology that the Responses to this article can be read online at:
same socioeconomic activities should be carried out http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/issues/responses.
continuously is built on the premise of environmental stability, php/5231
the maintenance of which is likely to be more difficult because
extreme storm events are expected to increase with climate
change (Alley et al. 2007). As environmental stability becomes Acknowledgments:
uncertain, the best strategy to remain in the desirable regime
is to enlarge the regime itself (Carpenter et al. 2001). Because I thank Marina Alberti, Robert Mugerauer, and Robert J.
the boundary of desirable regime is socially constructed, Naiman of the University of Washington, Seattle, Washington,
expanding it involves redefining the norm—society needs to USA; Christopher P. Konrad of the U.S. Geological Society
accept necessary changes in the form and intensity of (USGS), Northwest Area, Tacoma, Washington, USA; and two
socioeconomic activities, because the supporting infrastructure, anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments that helped
even if adaptive to flooding, may still be limited by it. It does to improve this paper.
not mean accepting system failure during flooding, rather it
implies socioeconomic flexibility and adaptability. This
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