INITIAL UNITS 1, 2 AND 3 – PHASE 1_RECOGNIZE AND ANALYZE THE PROBLEM

RAISED IN AN INDIVIDUAL WAY

PRESENTED BY:
ANGIE LIZETH SABOGAL
GROUP: 212066_50

TUTOR
PAULA ANDREA CARVAJAL

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OPEN AND DISTANCE "UNAD"

FACULTY OF SCHOOL OF BASIC SCIENCES, TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING PROGRAM
THEORY OF DECISIONS
VILLAVICENCIO - META
SEPTEMBER 05, 2019
 INTRODUCTION

In this work you will find the development of the three exercises outlined in the Activity
Guide, as follows: the first exercise consists in the development of Probabilities of an
Event, the second exercise consists of the Graphic Solution of Equations and finally there
is the development of exercise three consisting of Matrix Operations, these exercises are
duly solved, with their respective explanation.
 ACTIVITIES TO DEVELOP
Next, you will find 3 exercises that make up the pre – task to develop individually.
Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:
In a bag threre are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some red and others green.
Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:
𝑬 = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}
With take above data, answer:
a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a prime
number?
b) How many balls are there in each color?
RTA:
We start by calculating the number of favorable cases and the number of possible cases
Number of Favorable Cases: 4 are the prime numbers (11, 13, 17 𝑦 19)
Number of Possible Cases: 10 are all the numbers of the sample space
Probability
4 2
𝑃(𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = =
10 5
2
𝑃(𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = ∗ 100%
5
𝑃(𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = 40%
a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a prime
number?
The probability of getting a prime number between the 10 balls is 40%
To know how many balls are in each color we must perform the following procedure: We
start by calculating the number of favorable cases and the number of possible cases
Number of possible cases: 10 are all numbers in the sample space.
Taking into account that in the calculation of the probability in the previous step we
obtained that 4 are the prime numbers we can understand that these are the red balls and
the remainder is the amount of green balls, so we get the following:
Number of Favorable Cases: 6
We organize the equation as follows:
6
𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙) =
10
 b) How many balls are there in each color?
In total there are 6 green balls in the bag and 4 red balls.
Exercise 2. Graphic Solution of Equations:
Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut – off point and solution that
satisfies the following systems of equations:
1. 𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6
2. 𝑦 = 2𝑥 + 1
For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is, replacing in
each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph its lines.
RTA:
Equation of the line
𝒚 = 𝒎𝒙 + 𝒃
𝑓 (𝑥 ) = 𝑦 = 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑚 = 𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑥 = 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑏 = 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑐𝑢𝑡 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑓𝑡 𝑦
Equation 1: 𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6
𝑚 = −4: 𝐻𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒
+6: 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑐𝑢𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑓𝑡 𝑦 𝑖𝑛 (6) 𝑠𝑖𝑥 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 (+)
Equation 2: 𝑦 = 2𝑥 + 1
𝑚 = 2: 𝐻𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒
+1: 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑐𝑢𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑓𝑡 𝑦 𝑖𝑛 (1) 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 (+)

Intersection solution by reduction method:

Equation 1: 𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6
Equation 2: 𝑦 = 2𝑥 + 1
The objective is to initially eliminate a variable, whereby the variable (x) is eliminated,
multiplying equation 2 by (2) two to achieve the same coefficient of equation 1 and being
able to eliminate by summing equations.
Equation 1: 𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6
Equation 2: (2)𝑦 = (2𝑥 + 1) (2)

𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝟏: 𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6
𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝟐: 2𝑦 = 4𝑥 + 2
3𝑦 = +8
8
𝑦=
3
𝒚 = 𝟐, 𝟔𝟔𝟔
Replace the value "and" found in any of equations 1 or equation 2.
Equation 1: 𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6
Equation 1 in terms of y:
𝑦−6 6−𝑦
𝑦 − 6 = −4𝑥 → − ( )=𝑥→ =𝑥
4 4
8
6 − (3)
=𝑥
4
18 − 8
𝑥= 3
4
1
10 5
𝑥= →
12 6
5
𝑥=
6
𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟖𝟑𝟑𝟑
Cut or intersection point:
𝑥 = 0,8333 y 𝑦 = 2,666

For the values 𝑥 = 0 and 𝑥 = 1 in equation 1 and equation 2.

𝒙=𝟎
𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6 𝑦 = 2𝑥 + 1
𝑦 = −4(0) + 6 𝑦 = 2(0) + 1
𝒚=𝟔 𝒚=𝟏
𝒙=𝟎 𝒙=𝟎
𝒙=𝟏
𝑦 = −4𝑥 + 6 𝑦 = 2𝑥 + 1
𝑦 = −4(1) + 6 𝑦 = 2(1) + 1
𝑦 = −4 + 6 𝑦 = 2+1
𝒚 = −𝟐 𝒚=𝟑
𝒙=𝟏 𝒙=𝟏
Exercise 3. Matrix Operations:
The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the matrix
multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given the following matrices
of size (𝑛 ∗ 𝑚) or (𝑚 ∗ 𝑚) solve the product of them.
0.3 0.4 0.3
1. 𝐴 = [0.1 0.5 0.4] 𝐵 = [0.5 0.3 0.2]
0.3 0.3 0.4
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2
2. 𝐴 = [0.1 0.5 0.4] 𝐵 = [0.1 0.2 0.7]
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (𝐴 ∗ 𝐵)
𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟑
1. 𝑨 = [𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟒] 𝑩 = [𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟐]
𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟒
Multiply
0.3 0.4 0.3
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∗ [0.5 0.3 0.2]
0.3 0.3 0.4
0.3
[0.1 0.5 ] = (0.1 ∗ 0.3) + (0.5 ∗ 0.5) + (0.4 ∗ 0.3)
0.4 ∗ 0.5]
[
= 0.4
0.3
0.4
[0.1 0.5 = (0.1 ∗ 0.4) + (0.5 ∗ 0.3) + (0.4 ∗ 0.3)
0.4] ∗ [0.3]
= 0.31
0.3
0.3
[0.1 0.5 = (0.1 ∗ 0.3) + (0.5 ∗ 0.2) + (0.4 ∗ 0.4)
0.4] ∗ [0.2]
= 0.29
0.4
RTA:
0.3 0.4 0.3
[0.1 0.5 ] [
0.4 ∗ 0.5 0.3 0.2] = (0.4 0.31 0.29)
0.3 0.3 0.4
 𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟐
2. 𝑨 = [𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟒] 𝑩 = [𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟕]
𝟎. 𝟔 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟓
Multiply
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2
[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∗ [0.1 0.2 0.7]
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
0.3
[0.5 = (0.5 ∗ 0.3) + (0.2 ∗ 0.1) + (0.3 ∗ 0.2)
0.2 0.3] ∗ [0.1]
= 0.23
0.2
0.5
[0.5 = (0.5 ∗ 0.5) + (0.2 ∗ 0.2) + (0.3 ∗ 0.3)
0.2 0.3] ∗ [0.2]
= 0.38
0.3
0.2
[0.5 ] = (0.5 ∗ 0.2) + (0.2 ∗ 0.7) + (0.3 ∗ 0.5)
0.2 0.3 ∗ [0.7]
= 0.39
0.5
0.3
[0.1 = (0.1 ∗ 0.3) + (0.5 ∗ 0.1) + (0.4 ∗ 0.2)
0.5 0.4] ∗ [0.1]
= 0.16
0.2
0.5
[0.1 = (0.1 ∗ 0.5) + (0.5 ∗ 0.2) + (0.4 ∗ 0.3)
0.5 0.4] ∗ [0.2]
= 0.27
0.3
0.2
[0.1 ] = (0.1 ∗ 0.2) + (0.5 ∗ 0.7) + (0.4 ∗ 0.5)
0.5 0.4 ∗ 0.7]
[
= 0.57
0.5
0.3
[0.6 = (0.6 ∗ 0.3) + (0.3 ∗ 0.1) + (0.1 ∗ 0.2)
0.3 0.1] ∗ [0.1]
= 0.23
0.2
0.5
[0.6 = (0.6 ∗ 0.5) + (0.3 ∗ 0.2) + (0.1 ∗ 0.3)
0.3 0.1] ∗ [0.2]
= 0.39
0.3
0.2
[0.6 ] [ = (0.6 ∗ 0.2) + (0.3 ∗ 0.7) + (0.1 ∗ 0.5)
0.3 0.1 ∗ 0.7]
= 0.38
0.5
RTA:

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.23 0.38 0.39

[0.1 0.5 0.4] ∗ [0.1 0.2 0.7] = [0.16 0.27 0.57]
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.23 0.39 0.38
(Math2me, 2010) (Matemáticas Profe Alex, 2018) (Matemáticas Profe Alex, 2019)
 CONCLUSIONS
Taking into account these three exercises proposed in the Activity Guide, I was able to
delve into topics such as the probabilities of an event, the graphical solution of equations
and the operations between matrices, besides that with the matrices I learned a new
method to solve matrices, I had a little difficulty in understanding the development of
matrices; but I relied on face-to-face counseling and was able to give the correct solution
to this exercise.
 BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES

Matemáticas Profe Alex. (06 de Mayo de 2018). Sistemas de ecuaciones | Solución

Método Gráfico | Ejemplo 1. Recuperado el 02 de Septiembre de 2019, de
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ2yfxzmAkc
Matemáticas Profe Alex. (02 de Junio de 2019). Multiplicación de matrices | Producto de
matrices | Ejemplo 1. Recuperado el 02 de Septiembre de 2019, de
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tjrm3HsqBXE
Math2me. (14 de Agosto de 2010). Probabilidad de un Evento Simple. Recuperado el 31
de Agosto de 2019, de https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xZ_kKMiqGU