CONTENTS

List oj Contributors ix

1ntroduction 1

ALAN HÁJEK AND CHRISTOPHER HITCHCOCK

1. Probability for Everyone-Even Philosophers 5

ALAN HÁJEK AND CHRISTOPHER HITCHCOCK

PART I: HISTORY

2. Pre-history of Probability 33
JAMES FRANKLIN

3. Probability in 17th- and 18th-century Continental Europe

from the Perspective of Jacob Bemoulli's Art oj Conjecturing 50
EDlTH DUD LEY SYLLA

4. Probability and Its Application in Britain during the 17th

and 18th Centuries 69
DAVID R. BELLHOUSE

5. A Brief History of Probability Theory from 1810 to 1940 87

HANS FISCHER

6. The Origins of Modem Statistics: The English Statistical School 112

JOHN ALDRICH

7. The Origins ofProbabilistic Epistemology: Some Leading

20th-century Philosophers ofProbability 13 0
MARIA CARLA GALAVOTTI

PART II: FORMALISM

8. Kolmogorov's Axiomatization and 1ts Discontents 155

AIDAN LYON

9. Conditional Probability
KENNY EASWARAN
Vl CONTENTS

10. The Bayesian Network Story

RICHARD E. NEAPOLlTAN AND XIA JIANG

PART III: ALTERNATIVES TO

STANDARD PROBABILITY THEORY

11. Mathematical Alternatives to Standard Probability that Provide

Selectable Degrees of Precision 203
TERRENCE L. FINE

12. Probability and Nonclasskal Logic 248

J. ROBERT G. WILLIAMS
13. A Logic of Comparative Support: Qualitative Conditional
Probability Relations Representable by Popper Functions 277
JAMES HAWTHORNE

14. Imprecise and Indeterminate Probabilities 296

FABIO G. COZMAN

PART IV: INTERPRETATIONS

AND INTERPRETI VE ISSUES

15. Symmetry Arguments in Probability 31 5

SANDY ZABELL

16. Frequentism 34 1
ADAM LA CAZE

17. Subjectivism
LYLE ZYNDA

18. Bayesianism vs. Frequentism in Statistkal Inference

JAN SPRENGER

19. The Propensity Interpretation 406

DONALD GILLlES

20. Best System Approaches to Chance 42 3

WOLF GANG SCHWARZ

21. Probability and Randomness 440

ANTONY EAGLE

22. Chance and Determinism

ROMAN FRIGG
 CONTENTS Vll

PART V: PROBABILISTIC JUDGMENT

AND ITS APPLICATIONS

23. Human Understandings ofProbability 477

MICHAEL SMITHSON

24. Probability Elicitation 497

STEPHEN C. HORA

25. Probabilistic Opinion Pooling 51 9

FRANZ DIETRICH AND CHRISTIAN LIST

PART VI: APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY:

SCIENCE

26. Quantum Probability: An Introduction 545

GUIDO BACCIAGALUPPI

27. Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics 573

WAYNE C. MYRVOLD
28. Probability in Biology: The Case of Fitness 601
ROBERTA L. MILLSTEIN

PART VII: APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY:

PHILOSOPHY

29. Probability in Epistemology 625

MATTHEW KOTZEN

30. Confirmation Theory 650

VINCENZO CRUPI AND KATYA TENTORI

31. Self-Locating Credences 666

MICHAEL G. TITELBAUM

32. Probability in Logic 681

HANNEs LEITGEB

33. Probability in Ethics

DAVID MCCARTHY

34. Probability and the Philosophy of Religion

PAUL BARTHA
viii CONTENTS

35. Probability in Philosophy ofLanguage 77 2

ERIC SWANSON

36. Decision Theory

LARABuCHAK

37. Probabilistic Causation 81 5

CHRISTOPHER HITCHCOCK

Namelndex
Subject Index