Content

DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION In this lecture we learn how to gather and analyze data to be
used in the model by answering these questions:

What is simulation?
Introduction Methods of simulation
Lecture Note

Why simulate?

How to Simulate?

Departemen Teknik Industri – FTI When to simulate?

Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS)
sekowiratno@gmail.com

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What is Simulation? What is Simulation?

An imitation of a system
i. An imitation of a system
 Imitation implies mimicking or copying something else
ii. An imitation (on a computer) of a system as it
progress through time  Computer aided design (CAD) systems provide imitations of
production facility design
iii. Experimentation with a simplified imitation (on a  A business process map is an imitation of a business
computer) of an operations system as it progress organisation
through time, for the purpose of better understanding
and/or improving that system

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 What is Simulation? What is Simulation?
An imitation (on a computer) of a system Experimentation with a simplified imitation (on a computer) of an
as it progress through time operations system as it progress through time, for the purpose of better
understanding and/or improving that system

 A dynamic simulation imitates a system as it progresses

 In general terms a system is a collection of parts organized
through time (The term simulation is mostly used in the
for some purpose
context of dynamic simulation)
 Checkland (1981) identifies four main classes of system:
 The focus is on computer based simulations rather than
1. Natural systems
physical simulation, although many of the principles that
are described would still apply to the latter. 2. Designed physical systems
3. Designed abstract systems
4. Human activity systems

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What is Simulation? Methods of Simulation

• DES is used for modelling queuing systems
• A system is represented as entities flowing from one activity (effectively a time
Discrete-Event delay) to another
An imitation of a system Simulation • Activities are separated by queues.
(Imitation implies mimicking • The queues result when entities arrive at a faster rate than they can be processed
or copying something else) by the next activity

• The aim of Monte Carlo Simulation is to model risk in an environment where the

Simulation Methods
Monte Carlo outcome is subject to chance
• The world is conceived as a set of distributions representing variables that
An imitation (on a computer) of a system as it progress Simulation describe the source of chance
through time • The distributions are combined in some way to determine the outcome

(The term simulation is mostly used • System dynamics is a continuous simulation approach that represents the world as a
in the context of dynamic simulation)
set of stocks and flows
System • Stocks are accumulations (e.g. of items, people, money) and flows adjust the level of
a stock with inflows increasing the stock and outflows reducing it
Experimentation with a simplified imitation (on a Dynamics • Stock change continuously in response to the balance of the inflows and outflows
computer) of an operations system as it progress through from the stock; hence the need to model time continuously
time, for the purpose of better understanding and/or • System dynamics particularly focuses on modelling information feedback in a system

improving that system • The origins of agent based simulation lie in the desire to study complex systems
(These four aspects (operations systems, purpose, simplification, and Agent Based and their emergent behaviors
experimentation) are now added to the previous definition) • The basic idea is to model system form the bottom-up as a set of agents, with
Simulation individual behaviours, that interact over time
• The aim of modelling systems in this way is to observe the behaviours, patterns and
(Robinson, 2014) structures that emerge
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 Why Simulate: Three Perspectives The Nature of Operations Systems (1)

INTERCONNEDTED

COMPLEX
VARIABILITY
The disadvantages of • Many operation
simulation are discussed, on systems are also
complex
The need to use the grounds that it is • Operations systems
simulation because important to be cognizant of • Combinatorial
are also inter- complexity is
of the nature of these when determining
connected related to the
operations system whether or not to use the number of
is discussed approach • Components of the components in a
• Many operations system or the
system do not
systems are subject number of
work in isolation, combinations of
to variability system
but affect one
• This might be another components that
are possible
The advantages of predictable
• A chance in one • Dynamic
simulation over other variations complexity is
part of a system
approaches to • It might also be leads to a change arises from the
understanding and interaction of
variations that ar in another part of components in a
improving a system are
unpredictable the system system over time
described

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The Nature of Operations Systems (2) The Nature of Operations Systems (3)
Example Example

Customer Customer
arrivals Service 1 Service 2 Service 3 arrivals Service 1 Service 2 Service 3
10 mins 10 mins

9 mins 9 mins 9 mins 9 mins 9 mins 9 mins

Interconnected Variability

Alternative PT Service 1 PT Service 2 PT Service 3 Time in System

 What is the average time a customer spends in the system? In fact each 1 9 9 9 27
customer spends exactly 27 minutes in the system. 2 10 8 8 ?
 Assume thet the times given above are averages (variability). What is the 3 8 10 9 ?
average time a customer spends in the system? This is not an easy 4 9 9 10 ?
question to answer since there is variability in the system. PT = Processing Time

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 The Nature of Operations Systems (4) The Nature of Operations Systems (5)
Example

2 interconnections
Customer
arrivals Service 1 Service 2 Service 3
10 mins 6 interconnections
9 mins 9 mins 9 mins

Interconnected

12 interconnections

20 interconnections
4 interconnections
Job shop systems: interconnections and combinatorial complexity
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The Nature of Operations Systems (6) Advantages of Simulation

The effects described above often arise
because of feedback within a system structure

 Flexibility to model things as they are (even if messy and

An action has dramatically different
effects in the short and long run complicated)
The effects
An action has a very different set of  Allows uncertainty, nonstationarity in modeling
of dynamic consequences in one part of the system to
complexity  Advances in computing/cost ratios
another
Senge (1990) An action leads to non-obvious
 Advances in simulation software
consequences (counter intuitive behavior)

These effects make it very difficult to predict the performance

of a system when actions are taken, or changes are made

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 Disadvantages of Simulation How to do Simulation
Start
1. Formulating a hypothesis
 Don’t get exact answers, only approximations, estimates 2. Setting up an experiment
 Get random output (RIRO) from stochastic simulations 3. Testing the hypothesis through
Formulate a hypothesis

experiment
Develop a
4. Drawing conclusions about the Simulation model
validity of the hypothesis
Run simulation experiment

Hypothesis No
correct?

Yes
End

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Use of Simulation Use of Simulation

 Initial models were programmed in FORTRAN –often
consisted of thousands of lines of code
 Took a year or more to build and debug
 Ran in batch mode on expensive mainframe computers
 Used a commercial software since 1960
 Gained popularity as a decision-making tool in
manufacturing and service industries in the last two
decades
Popularity of computer simulation can be attributed to the
following:
 Increased awareness and understanding of simulation
technology
 Increased availability, capability, and ease of use of simulation
software
 Increased computer memory and processing speeds, especially
of PC’s
 Declining computer hardware and software costs

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 Use of Simulation Use of Simulation

 Simulation is no longer considered a method of “last Typical Applications:

resort”, nor is it a technique reserved only for simulation – Capacity planning
“experts” (easy-to-use simulation software). – Cycle time reduction
– Staff and resource planning
 The use of simulation in designing and improving business
– Bottleneck analysis
processes of every kind will likely to grow – Quality improvement
 An increasing use of simulation is in the area of – Cost reduction
communication and visualization – Productivity improvement
– Layout analysis
 Computer based training
– Investment analysis
– Etc.

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When Simulation is Appropriate When Simulation is Appropriate

 Not all system problems could be solved with the aid of
simulation
 It is important to select the right tool for the task
 Can be used to study simple models but should not use it if
an analytical solution is available
 Real power of simulation is in studying complex models
 Simulation can tolerate complex models since we don’t
even aspire to an analytical solution
Simulation is appropriate if the following criteria hold true:
– An operational (logical or quantitative) decision is being made
– The process being analyzed is well defined and repetitive
– The activities and events are interdependent and variable
– The cost impact of the decision is greater the cost of doing the
simulation
– The cost to experiment on the actual system is greater than the
cost of simulation

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