Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
12, 2017
Abstract: Alternate traffic routes are crucial in road networks because car users are given
opportunities to avoid congested roads. Meanwhile, the outcome of natural disasters can make
road networks vulnerable because it can decrease the entire network’s performance. This paper
assessed the vulnerability of alternate traffic routes in Metro Manila to flooding. The Mabuhay
Lanes (ML), designed to redirect traffic from busy roads in Metro Manila, were assessed in
terms of robustness and serviceability. The assessment noted three Mabuhay Lanes as the most
vulnerable in coping with the impacts of flooding affecting the entire network. Compared to the
base condition, these routes had a 23 to 32% increase in link costs and traffic volume. In terms
of network serviceability, ML2 is the most vulnerable because it has the most links along the
route (60%) that are affected by flood waters.
1. INTRODUCTION
Road networks are vulnerable to natural disasters because its impacts greatly affect travel
conditions. Naturally, after the occurrence of a disaster event, some areas would be less
accessible (e.g. road closures or a collapsed bridge because of an earthquake, or flooded and
inaccessible roads due to heavy rainfall). Due to the significant impact of disasters to travel
conditions, vulnerability assessments are often performed to identify which disaster-affected
areas would heavily damage the performance of the entire network. As such, these studies on
road networks could result to a proactive and cost-effective decision-making, (Oswald & Treat,
2013) the prioritization in planning and maintenance of an urban road network, and the
development of an emergency response plan or traffic diversion plan (Balijepalli & Oppong,
2014).
Over the past years, a significant amount of research has been devoted to assess the vulnerability
of road networks to natural disasters. Different modelling approaches of network vulnerability
were reviewed by Murray (2013) wherein the usual approach is interdicting a network element,
whether a node or link. Network interdiction in vulnerability assessment could result to: (1)
separation of the network or (2) passengers making a detour to reach their destination
(Rodríguez-Núñez & García-Palomares, 2014). The mentioned approach treats affected roads
as completely inaccessible wherein nodes or links completely fail. However, Balijepalli &
Oppong (2014) posed several issues: the applicability of different network vulnerability indices
to large and dense urban networks, the importance of the links within the road network, and the
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This paper follows the issues presented by Balijepalli & Oppong (2014)specifically in
considering the importance of the road links that are assessed. In contrast, this would directly
assess the Mabuhay Lanes which were designed to provide an alterate route for car users going
to and from the northern and southern cities of Metro Manila. Furthermore, this paper simulates
a 5-year flood condition all over Metro Manila wherein link capacity reductions would vary
depending on the type of flood hazard. In this study, the changes in capacities of roads that are
affected by flood and not failures of critical links would make the alternate routes vulnerable.
This method allows us to focus entirely on the alternate traffic routes which have a significant
role in rerouting vehicular traffic especially in poor weather conditions. This paper would show
not only the affected routes but also the areas affected due to the flood event. Recommendations
to improve existing alternate routes are also presented in this paper.
The paper is divided into several sections. Section 2 discusses the relevant literature in road
network vulnerability and the indices used in the vulnerability analysis of road networks.
Section 3 describes the study area. Section 4 describes the method of vulnerability assessment
of the alternate routes in Metro Manila. Section 5 illustrates the impact of flooding to the
alternate routes. Section 6 concludes the research as presented in the paper and provides
recommendations for policy and future research work.
2. RELATED LITERATURE
Many authors agree that there is no single definition of the term ‘vulnerability’ primarily
because of its complexity. Hence, the term is often operationalized instead of measured for it
does not denote observable phenomenon. Therefore, most definitions of vulnerability are
formed depending on how it is operationalized.
There are many concepts related to road network vulnerability as shown in Table 1. This paper
adapts the widely-used definition of vulnerability as “the susceptibility to incidents that can
result in considerable reductions in road network serviceability” (Berdica, 2002).
Since transportation networks consist of nodes and links, a typology of network vulnerability
approaches can be applied in the assessment of vulnerability. Murray, Matisziw, & Grubesic
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The use of vulnerability indicators to perform vulnerability assessments are common and can
be found in almost all studies on road vulnerability. Rodríguez-Núñez & García-Palomares,
2014 used three indicators to evaluate the public transportation network. Meanwhile, thirteen
indices assessed the vulnerability of Chinese road networks using fuzzy comprehensive
evaluation and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (Yang, Sun, Wang, Li, & Wu, 2013). Khademi
et al., (2015) made use of an isolation and exposure indices of traffic zones to show travel
demand between origin and destination for an emergency trip with unknown amount.
Furthermore, the impact of climate change to the system wide performance of the Boston Metro
Area transportation network were done by overlaying a flood map to the road network and
varying the travel demand due to the impact of flooding (Suarez, Anderson, Mahal, &
Lakshmanan, 2005).
In this study, indicators developed by Scott, Novak, Aultman-hall, & Guo (2006) and Balijepalli
& Oppong (2014) were used in the vulnerability assessment of the Mabuhay Lanes. Reduced
road serviceability depending on the level of flood hazard in the road network is applied instead
of complete link failures. As such, the approach of this paper considers the reduced
serviceability of the entire network because of different flood levels and focuses on the
performance of the Mabuhay Lanes. This paper models varying serviceability on each road
links to simulate changing flood conditions at different locations.
Numerous studies can be found in literature relating the impact of heavy rainfall to traffic
condition. However, studies relating flooding and traffic condition is unusual considering that
this may be limited to developing regions or areas that are near bodies of water. Nevertheless,
the work of Keay & Simmonds (2005) studied the effect of rainfall among other weather
variables in road traffic volume in Melbourne, Australia. Their study showed that rainfall is the
strongest correlated weather parameter and has the greatest impact during winter and spring.
Results showed that for wet days, volume can decrease by 1.29% compared to dry days.
However, flooding is caused by very heavy rainfall which may further decrease the traffic
volume. Considering that there is a lack of literature in relating flooding and traffic volumes,
planners used different assumptions in modeling its effects. Pregnolato, Ford, Wilkinson, &
Dawson (2017) listed typical assumptions such as: traffic volumes and speeds corresponding to
regional statistics, road assumed to be completely closed when crown is covered by water
regardless of depth, traffic on open roads continuously flows smoothly, traffic volumes not
exceeding design capacity of the roads, and traffic conditions not changing over the course of
the day, among others. Suarez et al., (2005) also assumed that flooded roads are closed and
make roads impassable. Finally, the work of Pregnolato, Ford, Wilkinson, & Dawson (2017)
identified determined 30 cm as the maximum threshold for safe driving, stopping, and steering
(without loss of control). Then again, there is still a lack of literature relating the impact of
flooding to traffic conditions. For this study, flood heights will be assumed depending on the
level of flood hazard and a corresponding reduction in capacity.
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The National Capital Region (NCR), commonly known as Metro Manila, is composed of 4
districts with 17 local government units and has a population of about 12 million. Metro Manila
experiences a tropical climate characterized with high temperatures, humidity, and seasonal
rainfall. The rainfall or typhoon season, which normally begins during the month of May, has
become burdensome for Metro Manila residents due to the occurrences of heavy flooding. In
2009, Tropical Storm Ketsana, locally known as Ondoy, dropped 455 millimeters of rainfall
within 24 hours which caused flooding and paralyzed majority of Metro Manila. Since then,
government-led efforts were exhausted to address the issues brought about by flooding ranging
from improving weather forecasting capabilities, introducing new rainfall classification
warnings, providing flood maps, to constructing and maintaining flood control structures.
Despite this, the incidences of flooding have not lessened because of extreme rainfall events
and the lack of conscious effort from the public to improve the urban landscape. In effect,
flooding has led to casualties, infrastructure damages, and economic losses.
On the average, traffic volume in Metro Manila is currently beyond the intended capacity of
roads as shown in Table 2. Hence, several road sections have speeds less than 20 kilometers per
hour (kph). A comparison with the estimated travel demand from a previous study in 1996
shows that the observed person trips in Metro Manila increased 15% by car and decreased 7%
by public transport. The high contribution of the PCU-km of private vehicles and increased car
ownership (average of 1.70% from 2010-2013) suggest that private vehicles have become a
significant contributor to traffic congestion in the area. Economically, traffic congestion costs
about P3 billion per day or about 0.8% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) (Rappler,
2016).
Table 2 Major road corridors in Metro Manila (Source: Japan International Cooperation
Agency, 2014)
Road Name Length (km) V/C Ratio Road Name Length (km) V/C Ratio
C-1 6.1 1.14 R-4 7.5 1.21
C-2 10.2 1.26 R-5 5.4 1.30
C-3 13.8 1.04 R-6 10.3 1.35
C-4 (EDSA) 27.1 1.21 R-7 11.8 1.16
C-5 26.8 1.24 R-8 7.5 1.67
R-1 8.8 1.73 R-9 7.1 1.72
R-2 6.7 1.43 R-10 6.9 1.25
R-3 4.7 1.40 Metro Manila 805 1.25
Because of the worsening traffic gridlock and its massive impact to the economy, different
infrastructure programs, administrative reforms, and traffic plans were launched by the
government to find viable solutions to the traffic conundrums of the region. Major traffic
reforms include the expanded implementation of the Unified Vehicular Volume Reduction
Program (UVVRP), also known as number coding, which limits vehicles to ply designated
roads from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM based on the last digit of the vehicle plate number. The scheme
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resulted to a decrease in travel time (at least 14 minutes) in one of the busiest corridors in Metro
Manila (Ramirez, 2016).
In 2015, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA), a government agency that
performs, plans, and coordinates functions in the delivery of metro-wide services including
transport and traffic management, proposed alternate traffic routes in anticipation of the
increase in traffic volume due to the holiday season. The agency presented 17 alternate routes
locally called ‘Mabuhay Lanes’ (ML) designed to connect areas in Metro Manila that normally
experience heavy vehicular traffic. Since 2015, the government have been suggesting the routes
even during events that required road closures. These routes pass through roads that are
maintained by local government units. As such, it was required that illegally parked vehicles
owned by residents along the route to be cleared. The ML is the only traffic plan implemented
to reroute vehicles away from links that serve high vehicular volume on the network.
Metro Manila road traffic conditions also worsen when heavy rainfall triggers flash floods and
causes traffic jams. Figure 1 shows commonly flooded areas reported by car users as collated
by MMDA. Incidentally, the roads that are reported in Figure 1 are also along major roads in
Metro Manila. As such, it is critical that alternate traffic routes remain operational since there
are several major roads that are often inundated with flood waters.
Figure 1. MMDA flood prone areas as reported by road users (Lagmay et al., 2016)
This study assessed seven of the 17 ML (shown in Figure 2) connecting the northern and
southern cities of Metro Manila. It can be seen in Figure 2 that most of the ML links make use
of inner and local roads. This feature allows road users to go to their respective destinations
without having to pass through major corridors.
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4. METHODOLOGY
The transportation network and its properties were developed using the transportation modeling
software – EMME/4. Zones in this network are in conjunction with the zoning system used in
government studies. The creation of a disrupted network due to flooding was done by
overlaying a flood map on the network and individually reducing link capacities depending on
the flood hazard level as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3. A portion of the road network with flood hazard map (Source: DREAM, 2016)
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In this study, a network of links connecting origin and destination zones have demand fi for a
particular O-D pair i. Let A be a set of links indexed as a = 1,2,…,A. Link travel times are
assumed to be a function of link flows. Hence, if qa denotes the flow on link a, with q as the A-
vector of flows of all links, then the travel time t on link a is denoted as ta(q) respectively. This
notation was used in the specific vulnerability indices adopted in this paper by Balijepalli &
Oppong (2014) and Scott et al., (2006).
There are also different measures that calculate the vulnerability indices. Other vulnerability
indices calculate the change in generalized cost measure, the network efficiency measure, and
the network importance. These indices all have shortcomings because these are too restrictive
in the sense that all trips are routed through the least cost path for every OD pair. This is only
applicable for networks whose alternative routes are too long and nonexistent in some cases
(Balijepalli & Oppong, 2014). This research analyzes the vulnerability of alternate routes in a
dense urban network making other proposed indices not applicable in this study. Furthermore,
other indices in the literature normally reflects the accessibility of the network while this
research focuses on the network performance of the alternate routes during a flood disruption.
Lastly, the index proposed by Balijepalli & Oppong (2014) is appropriate in this study to reflect
the effect of road capacity reductions due to flooding.
A network robustness index (NRI) proposed by (Scott et al., 2006) calculates the change in
cost when the network becomes unstable. The cost of changes in traffic conditions is reflected
in travel time changes due to variation in link capacities. The cost for the base case (i.e. all links
are not flooded), denoted as C, is defined as
C t i qi (1)
i
where,
ti : travel time for link i
qi : traffic flow for link i
A network vulnerability index (NVI) is a measure proposed by Balijepalli & Oppong (2014)
calculates the vulnerability of the ML while considering the serviceability of each road link on
the network. The NVI is defined as:
qbefore
n n qafter
NVI before t i
i before
iafter t iafter
(3)
r r
i1 i i1 i
where,
ri : serviceability of link i (i.e. total available capacity of link i / standard hourly
link capacity per lane) in the Mabuhay Lane
qi, ti : as defined in (2)
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The serviceability of the link is reduced when the road link is affected by the flood as indicated
by its flood level hazard. For this study, there is only one flood scenario (i.e. 5-year flood) and
different capacity reductions were introduced within the transportation network depending on
the hazard level on the road location.
Since urban networks are more complex (i.e. car users have many alternate routes available for
travel), the selection of the route would depend on the generalized cost of travel based on travel
time and distance. This paper follows Wardrop’s principle of user equilibrium wherein the cost
of travel on all used routes for all OD pairs are equal in a congested network.
The road network of Metro Manila is divided into 272 zones based on the household interview
surveys conducted by the National Government under the MMUTIS Update and Enhancement
Project (JICA, 2015). Each zone is represented in the network with a centroid and is connected
by a link to accommodate trips coming in and going out of the zone centroid. Each road in the
network is classified into three types as listed in Table 3. That is, a link that is classified as type
1 has an original capacity of 900 vehicles/hour/lane (v/h/l).
Shown also in Table 3 are the reduced capacities per flood hazard and road type. The reduction
in capacities were based on the level of hazard each road link was put under. The adopted flood
hazard map used in this study classified three (3) levels of hazard: low, medium, and high. The
map shows the extent of flood if the actual amount of rain exceeds that of a 5-year rain return
period (wherein the Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency is 223.5 mm) (DREAM, 2016). For
a corresponding hazard level, a flood height estimate is given. Low flood hazards have flood
heights ranging from 0.10 meters (m) to 0.5 m. Medium flood hazards have flood heights
ranging from 0.5 m to 1.5 m. Lastly, high flood hazards have flood heights that may exceed 1.5
m.
A link would retain its original capacity if not affected by flood. If affected by flood, the original
capacity would be reduced depending on the flood hazard level. A type-1 link that has low flood
hazard would have its capacity reduced by 10%, that is, the new capacity would be 810 v/h/l,
and so on. The capacity reductions were based on the authors’ perception on the type of vehicles
that would be affected based on the estimated flood heights. For example, low flood hazards
have flood heights ranging from 0.1 m to 0.5 m. The authors decided to use a 10% reduction in
capacity since this flood height would mostly affect light vehicles such as cars/sedans. However,
for this flood height range, there is an uncertainty whether the affected vehicles can pass through
the affected road link. Hence, a 10% reduction capacity was used to reflect the smallest possible
change in capacity for a given road link that would still reflect the impact of flooding.
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2) Perform select link analysis for each Mabuhay Lane under base and flooded
scenario (i.e. with capacity reductions)
3) Utilize equations (1) to (3) to compute the NRI and NVI
4) Perform steps 2 and 4 for the remaining 6 Mabuhay Lanes
Select link analysis was performed even without completely removing the ML (links). This
process allows to focus on the OD pairs that make use of the ML under the base and flooded
condition. Specifically, it would pinpoint changes in traffic conditions along the ML in the event
of a flood. Further analysis will expose the rerouted trips for the most vulnerable Mabuhay Lane.
This section discusses the resulting vulnerability indices developed in the previous section. The
applied methodology in this paper assumes that demand is inelastic and that link capacity
reductions occur during peak hour travel. The assumption of inelastic demand is still reasonable
since the approach used in this study do not involve link failures (i.e. roads that are completely
inoperable).
As expected, reductions in road link capacities resulted to changes in traffic flows, travel times,
and travel speeds. The descriptive statistics of changes in traffic conditions for the entire Metro
Manila network (flooded vs. base scenarios) are summarized in Table 4. The values in Table 4
were results from network simulation using EMME/4 software. All values in the table reflect
the changes in traffic volume, travel time, and speed in each link in the Metro Manila network.
Traffic volume was determined using the traffic assignment module in EMME/4 while link
travel time was calculated using the volume-delay functions which were patterned from
formulations of the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR). Finally, link speeds were calculated by
dividing the link length and resulting link travel time.
On average, there was an increase in traffic volume and travel time in all links in Metro Manila
which suggests that the impacts of flooding assigned traffic volume on links that were
previously not assigned on the base condition. In comparing the base and flooded scenarios, a
negative value indicates a decrease in value characterizing the traffic condition. The variation
in changes in traffic is a result of the reduction of link capacities over the entire network.
Table 4. Descriptive statistics in changes in traffic conditions in the entire network between
flooded and base conditions
Travel Time Speed (km/hr)
Statistic Traffic (vehicles/hour)
(mins)
Minimum -2601 -13.12 -48
Maximum 2364 51.43 48
Mean 13.06 0.32 -1.44
Std. Dev 303.41 1.78 6.25
This research recognizes the fact that network disruptions in the form of flooded roads will
make the network not achieve equilibrium. This will be addressed by performing two different
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vulnerability analyses. The first vulnerability analysis limits the traffic assignment into a single
iteration to load all traffic to the shortest paths. This assumes that drivers do not have complete
knowledge of the flood condition and choose the shortest path for their respective journeys.
Table 5 shows actual vulnerability indices of the Mabuhay Lanes when the network is not in
equilibrium. From this table, ML6 has the highest change in terms of robustness and
serviceability. The difficulty in interpreting this table is that the values do not allow
comparability between MLs.
Table 6 shows the proportional values of the NRI and NVI of the Mabuhay Lanes when the
network is not in equilibrium. In this case, ML1, ML6, and ML7 are the most vulnerable
alternate routes. Notable for these routes are the excessively high increase in travel times in the
links as a result of the high traffic volume and sudden decrease in capacity which is why there
is a great increase in travel cost. In terms of serviceability, these 3 routes are also affected by
floods which is why the NVIs also increased.
Table 7 shows the actual vulnerability indices of the Mabuhay Lanes when the network is under
equilibrium. This scenario represents the condition wherein drivers have complete knowledge
of the flood situation. Their complete knowledge could be attributed to a variety of factors like
their previous experiences in flooding, the use of live traffic information through social media,
and the use of navigational applications such as Waze. From Table 7, ML7 has the highest
change in terms of robustness and serviceability. However, the values in the table do not allow
comparison of vulnerability indices between ML.
Note that both NRI and NVI compute the total cost of travel on the ML using the link costs and
flows. increasing values of NVI and decreasing values of NRI makes the ML less vulnerable
and more robust, respectively. Both NRI and NVI were ranked to show the positions of the
Mabuhay Lanes in terms of vulnerability. Table 8 shows the NRI and NVI for all ML in terms
of percentage (i.e. relative to their base conditions) and its corresponding relative positions in
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terms of vulnerability.
Figure 4 Mabuhay Lanes 6, 3, and 1 and changes in traffic volume due to flooding
The values of the two measures in Table 8 agree that ML6, ML3, and ML1 are the three most
vulnerable alternate traffic routes. The consistency shows that these alternate routes are most
affected in the event of a flood considering robustness and serviceability. In Figure 4, it is shown
that there has been changes for the links using different ML. The red bars in Figure 4 indicate
traffic volume that use the ML. This shows the impact of flooding wherein some links have
become costlier which resulted to the assignment to links along the ML. This observation is
evident for ML6, ML3, and ML1.
Looking at ML3 and ML1, these alternate routes are not much affected by floods. In return,
travel costs on these links were significantly lower and resulted to an increase in traffic volumes
using the routes. On the other hand, about 44% of the links along ML6 are affected by flood.
But comparing it to other links in the direction of this alternate route, ML6 still offered lower
travel costs which led to an increase in traffic volume along the route.
Based on the NVI, ML2 is considered most vulnerable. It is significant to recall that the NVI
considers the serviceability of the links. Considering this, ML2 was most vulnerable because
more than half of the total number of links (56%) were affected by flood. Looking at Figure 5,
most links in ML2 traverse areas that have medium and high hazards. Further analysis of each
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individual links on this route shows that changes in traffic flow and travel cost were larger at
links that were affected by flood.
Contrary to the NVI, ML2 is the least vulnerable among Mabuhay Lanes considering robustness.
Its low vulnerability index could be attributed to the route being costlier even at base condition.
As such, any further reduction in capacity did not make the alternate route a viable alternative
traffic route during flooded condition as it would increase travel cost along these links.
Since ML6, ML3, and ML1 are the most vulnerable alternate traffic routes in Metro Manila, it
is essential that government should pursue ways to improve traffic conditions along these routes.
A flood that would fully disrupt any of these Mabuhay Lanes could worsen the traffic conditions
along roads where traffic conditions are already severe.
If ML6 is fully disrupted or non-operable during a flood event in Metro Manila, most of the
vehicular traffic would be diverted back to links along EDSA and Quezon Avenue as shown in
Figure 6. At the same time, links where traffic would be rerouted are also affected by flood
which could further reduce network serviceability and contributes to the overall increase in
vulnerability of the entire road network. The same observations of rerouted traffic to major
corridors in the event of total failure of the Mabuhay Lane were observed. As such, the
importance of the identified vulnerable routes should be prioritized in maintenance and flood
management. Furthermore, this signifies the effectivity of Mabuhay Lanes in rerouting traffic
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This paper acknowledges two important aspects of the Metro Manila road network: (1) the
importance of Mabuhay Lanes in providing alternate routes to reroute vehicles away from roads
with heavy vehicular traffic, and; (2) the vulnerability of the Metro Manila road network to
natural disasters. This paper performed a vulnerability assessment of the Mabuhay Lanes to
flooding and identified which among these routes would be most affected in the event of a 5-
year annual exceedance probability flood (i.e. a flood event that could occur once in 5 years).
Vulnerability indices considering network robustness (NRI) and serviceability (NVI) were
applied in this study for two conditions – network not in equilibrium and network under
equilibrium. For the network not in equilibrium, ML6, ML7, and ML1 are the most vulnerable
alternate routes. These routes are vulnerable because of two reasons: travel costs suddenly
increased due to a significant rise in travel time, and links are affected by flood as well which
reduced its serviceability.
For a network under equilibrium, both indices were consistent in stating that ML6, ML3, and
ML1 are the three most vulnerable alternate routes. However, the NRI and NVI were at
contrasting ends for ML2. ML2 is most vulnerable for NVI as it had the most road links that
are least serviceable. Relative to the other Mabuhay Lanes, ML2 is the least vulnerable in terms
of robustness because it has the least change in travel costs along links.
The NRI verifies that changes in traffic volume and travel time along Mabuhay Lanes would
occur in an event of a flood. The NVI verifies the impact of flooded links along Mabuhay Lanes
to the serviceability of the alternate route. The index shows that links having low serviceability
contribute to the vulnerability of a network.
It was shown that the Mabuhay Lanes are important in rerouting traffic volume away from roads
that are already experiencing poor traffic conditions. Hence, their significance cannot be
overlooked especially during flooded conditions because traffic volumes increased along these
routes. It was shown in this study that if these lanes were inoperable during flooded conditions,
vehicles would be rerouted to already busy links which could also be flooded. This only
highlights the importance of the vulnerability assessment of the Mabuhay Lanes if ever
authorities would pursue flood mitigation or traffic control programs along these routes. Given
that, it is recommended to prioritize ML6, ML3, and ML1 in flood mitigation and capacity
improvements since some of the links along these routes are local roads. It is also recommended
to investigate other alternate routes connecting the northern and southern areas of Metro Manila.
Specifically, an assessment of all 17 Mabuhay lanes and the transportation network can be
further studied.
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