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TAREA2

PRESENTADO POR:
ANYI YULIETH ROMERO GUZMAN
CODIGO: 1105614053

TUTOR:
HECTOR FABIO PADILLA

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA UNAD


ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BASICAS, TECNOLOGIA E INGENIERIA
PROGRAMA: INGENIERIA INDUSTRIAL
CEAD-IBAGUE
2019
Periodo DEMANDA REAL periodos t ventas At
(Unidades)
1 18023 1 A(1) 18023
2 10602 2 A(2) 10602
3 19022 3 A(3) 19022
4 11406 4 A(4) 11406
5 10850 5 A(5) 10850
6 19221 6 A(6) 19221
7 14306 7 A(7) 14306
8 18966 8 A(8) 18966
9 19762 9 A(9) 19762
10 13380 10 A(10) 13380
11 16182 11 A(11) 16182
12 12889 12 A(12) 12889
13 19891 13 A(13) 19891
14 13988 14 A(14) 13998
15 16759 15 A(15) 16759
16 13363 16 A(16) 13363
17 13167 17 A(17) 13167
18 12654 18 A(18) 12654

a 0.1052631579

pronostico año que comienza


periodo t F(t-1) A(t-1)-F(t-1) pronostico Ft
1 no existe
25000
2 18023
3 18023 -7421.00 17241.84
4 17241.84 1780.16 17429.23
5 17429.23 -6023.23 16795.20 20000
6 16795.20 -5945.20 16169.39
7 16169.39 3051.61 16490.61
8 16490.61 -2184.61 16260.65
9 16260.65 2705.35 16545.43 15000
10 16545.43 3216.57 16884.01
11 16884.01 -3504.01 16515.17
12 16515.17 -333.17 16480.10
10000
13 16480.10 -3591.10 16102.09
14 16102.09 3788.91 16500.92
15 16500.92 -2512.92 16236.40
5000
10000

16 16236.40 522.60 16291.41 5000


17 16291.41 -2928.41 15983.16
18 15983.16 -2816.16 15686.72
19 15686.72 -3032.72 15367.49
0
0 1 2 3

periodos demanda
19 18023
20 17241.84210526
21 17429.22714681
22 16795.20323662
23 16169.39236961
24 16490.61422544
25 16260.65483329
26 16545.42800873
27 16884.01453413
28 16515.17089896
29 16480.10027801
30 16102.08972243
31 16500.92238323
32 16236.40423763
33 16291.41431788
34 15983.16017915
35 15686.72226556
36 15367.48834287
demanda real vs pronostico
25000

20000

15000

10000

5000
10000

5000

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

demanda rea l pronostico


14 15 16 17 18 19
Periodo DEMANDA REAL tendencia periodos t ventas At
(Unidades)
1 18023 872 1 A(1)
2 10602 2 A(2)
3 19022 3 A(3)
4 11406 4 A(4)
5 10850 5 A(5)
6 19221 6 A(6)
7 14306 7 A(7)
8 18966 8 A(8)
9 19762 9 A(9)
10 13380 10 A(10)
11 16182 11 A(11)
12 12889 12 A(12)
13 19891 13 A(13)
14 13988 14 A(14)
15 16759 15 A(15)
16 13363 16 A(16)
17 13167 17 A(17)
18 12654 18 A(18)

a 0.1052631579
b 0.2105263158

pronostico año que comienza


periodo t prom.suavisado prom.tendencia pronostico
1 18023 18023 872
2 10602 18803.21 852.68 19655.89 25000
3 19022 18702.85 652.04 19354.88
4 11406 19319.84 644.66 19964.50
20000
5 10850 19063.61 455.00 19518.60
6 19221 18606.12 262.89 18869.01
7 14306 18906.06 270.70 19176.76 15000
8 18966 18664.05 162.76 18826.80
9 19762 18841.46 165.84 19007.30
10 13380 19086.74 182.57 19269.30 10000
11 16182 18649.38 52.05 18701.43
12 12889 18436.23 -3.78 18432.45
5000
13 19891 17848.93 -126.62 17722.30
14 13988 17950.59 -78.56 17872.02
15 16759 17463.18 -164.64 17298.54 0
1 2 3
5000

0
1 2 3
16 13363 17241.75 -176.59 17065.15
17 13167 16675.45 -258.64 16416.82
18 12654 16074.73 -330.65 15744.08
19 15418.81 -399.13 15019.67

periodo t demanda
19 19655.8864265928
20 19354.8815079688
21 19964.5002315718
22 19518.602297697
23 18869.0126826745
24 19176.7590895618
25 18826.8034571744
26 19007.2962634942
27 19269.3040372707
28 18701.4316789097
29 18432.4504457188
30 17722.3049003272
31 17872.0238743878
32 17298.5419841564
33 17065.1542101453
34 16416.8176874674
35 15744.0774150998
36 15019.6737383808
ventas At

18023
10602
19022
11406
10850
19221
14306
18966
19762
13380
16182
12889
19891
13988
16759
13363
13167
12654

demanda real vs pronostico


25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
5000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
RELACION DE

DEMANDA FUTURA
REFERENCIA
(periodica)

DISPOSITIVO DE
ILUMINACION

periodo t demanda periodica Dt


19 18023
20 17241.8421052632
21 17429.2271468144
22 16795.2032366234
23 16169.3923696104
24 16490.6142254409
25 16260.6548332892
26 16545.4280087325
27 16884.0145341291
28 16515.1708989576
29 16480.1002780147
30 16102.0897224342
31 16500.9223832306
32 16236.4042376274
33 16291.4143178771
34 15983.1601791532
35 15686.7222655581
36 15367.4883428678

demanda diaria
demanda periodica

periodo t demanda periodica Dt


19 18023
20 17241.8421052632
21 17429.2271468144
22 16795.2032366234
23 16169.3923696104
24 16490.6142254409
25 16260.6548332892
26 16545.4280087325
27 16884.0145341291
28 16515.1708989576
29 16480.1002780147
30 16102.0897224342
31 16500.9223832306
32 16236.4042376274
33 16291.4143178771
34 15983.1601791532
35 15686.7222655581
36 15367.4883428678
297002.849085624

varianza de la demanda diaria


desviacion tipica de la demanda diaria

demanda diaria Dd
dispositivo
550.0052760845

Existencias en reserva

Dispositi
Periodo t
19
20
21
22
23
24 La política
25
de
26
27 inventario
28 optimo (de
29 reserva)
requiere
30
pedir
31
32
33
34
35
36
RELACION DEL INVENTARIO

COSTO DE
COSTO DE PREPARACION
TIEMPO DE ESPERA (dias) RETENCION
POR PEDIDO ($)
UNITARIO ($)

7 $ 2,093,624 $ 6,565

K H Qt
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3390.4747785174
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3316.1854427291
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3334.1569650342
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3272.9517914439
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3211.3957376083
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3243.1377300013
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3220.4457840317
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3248.5232531931
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3281.5938971348
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3245.5515590599
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3242.1036988893
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3204.7052941342
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3244.1512020375
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3218.043455553
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3223.4903247143
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3192.8484322027
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3163.101152459
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3130.7502423175

Dd 550.0052760845
demanda diaria

DT/30 ((DT/30)-Dd)²
600.7666666667 2576.7187738365
574.7280701754 611.2165476635
580.9742382271 959.0766161934
559.8401078874 96.7239165925
538.9797456537 121.5623212807
549.687140848 0.1012100287
542.0218277763 63.7354468894
551.5142669577 2.2770534556
562.800484471 163.7173576535
550.5056966319 0.2504207243
549.3366759338 0.4470261615
536.7363240811 176.0650872672
550.0307461077 0.0006487221
541.2134745876 77.2957735611
543.0471439292 48.4156030899
532.7720059718 296.9855987778
522.8907421853 735.1979485718
512.2496114289 1425.4902135832
550.0052760845 7355.2775640525

σ² 408.6265313363
σ 20.2145128889

desviacion tipica de la demada diaria


varianza de la demanda diaria σ² dias de espera
σ
408.6265313363 20.2145128889 7

K(0.05) B
1.644853627 87.9710057871

Dispositivo
Nivel del inventario
Cantidad óptima de pedido B+µl
3390.4747785174 3938.0079383785
3316.1854427291 3938.0079383785
3334.1569650342 3938.0079383785
3272.9517914439 3938.0079383785
3211.3957376083 3938.0079383785
3243.1377300013 3938.0079383785
3220.4457840317 unidades 3938.0079383785
3248.5232531931 3938.0079383785
3281.5938971348 siempre que el 3938.0079383785
nivel
3245.5515590599 del inventario se 3938.0079383785
3242.1036988893 reduzca a 3938.0079383785
3204.7052941342 3938.0079383785
3244.1512020375 3938.0079383785
3218.043455553 3938.0079383785
3223.4903247143 3938.0079383785
3192.8484322027 3938.0079383785
3163.101152459 3938.0079383785
3130.7502423175 3938.0079383785
COSTO POR
FALTANTE
UNITARIO ($)

$ 20,017
µL=Dd*L σL=√(�^2 �)

3850.0369325914 53.4825739784
unidades
RELACION DEL INVE

REFERENCIA DEMANDA FUTURA (periodica)

DISPOSITIVO DE
ILUMINACION

periodo t demanda periodica Dt


19 19655.8864265928
20 19354.8815079688
21 19964.5002315718
22 19518.602297697
23 18869.0126826745
24 19176.7590895618
25 18826.8034571744
26 19007.2962634942
27 19269.3040372707
28 18701.4316789097
29 18432.4504457188
30 17722.3049003272
31 17872.0238743878
32 17298.5419841564
33 17065.1542101453
34 16416.8176874674
35 15744.0774150998
36 15019.6737383808

demanda diaria
demanda periodica

periodo t demanda periodica Dt


19 19655.8864265928
20 19354.8815079688
21 19964.5002315718
22 19518.602297697
23 18869.0126826745
24 19176.7590895618
25 18826.8034571744
26 19007.2962634942
27 19269.3040372707
28 18701.4316789097
29 18432.4504457188
30 17722.3049003272
31 17872.0238743878
32 17298.5419841564
33 17065.1542101453
34 16416.8176874674
35 15744.0774150998
36 15019.6737383808
327915.521928599

varianza de la demanda diaria


desviacion tipica de la demanda diaria

demanda diaria Dd
dispositivo
607.2509665344

Existencias en reserva

Dispositivo
Periodo
t
19
20

La política
21
22
23
24 La política
25 de
26
27 inventario
28 optimo (de
29 reserva)
requiere
30
pedir
31
32
33
34
35
36
RELACION DEL INVENTARIO

COSTO DE PREPARACION POR COSTO DE RETENCION


TIEMPO DE ESPERA (dias) PEDIDO ($) UNITARIO ($)

7 $ 2,093,624 $ 6,565

K H Qt
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3540.7339381423
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3513.518423357
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3568.4219177871
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3528.3473610679
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3469.1379101559
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3497.3136496153
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3465.2555765164
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3481.8266792489
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3505.7423199995
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3453.6983586547
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3428.7712658608
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3362.072533593
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3376.2441496593
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3321.6336130382
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3299.1501787465
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3235.8729704542
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3168.878478277
$ 2,093,624 $ 6,565 3095.1181082209

Dd 607.2509665344
demanda diaria

DT/30 ((DT/30)-Dd)²
655.1962142198 2298.7467756064
645.1627169323 1437.3008182289
665.4833410524 3391.0094419989
650.6200765899 1880.8797070025
628.9670894225 471.5899932885
639.2253029854 1022.3581914787
627.5601152391 412.4615211097
633.5765421165 693.0359297251
642.3101345757 1229.1452637445
623.3810559637 260.1797849944
614.4150148573 51.3235883722
590.7434966776 272.4965610755
595.7341291463 132.6375434259
576.6180661385 938.3745866649
568.8384736715 1475.5196079448
547.2272562489 3602.8457964412
524.8025805033 6797.736359136
500.6557912794 11362.5313876615
607.2509665344 37730.1728578996

σ² 2096.1207143278
σ 45.7834109075

varianza de la demanda desviacion tipica de la demada


dias de espera
diaria σ² diaria σ
2096.1207143278 45.7834109075 7

K(0.05) B
1.644853627 199.2436190785

Dispositivo
Nivel del inventario B+µl
Cantidad óptima de pedido
3540.7339381423 4450.0003848196
3513.518423357 4450.0003848196
3568.4219177871 4450.0003848196
3528.3473610679 4450.0003848196
3469.1379101559 4450.0003848196
3497.3136496153 4450.0003848196
3465.2555765164 unidades 4450.0003848196
3481.8266792489 4450.0003848196
3505.7423199995 siempre que el 4450.0003848196
nivel
3453.6983586547 del inventario se 4450.0003848196
3428.7712658608 reduzca a 4450.0003848196
3362.072533593 4450.0003848196
3376.2441496593 4450.0003848196
3321.6336130382 4450.0003848196
3299.1501787465 4450.0003848196
3235.8729704542 4450.0003848196
3168.878478277 4450.0003848196
3095.1181082209 4450.0003848196
COSTO POR
FALTANTE
UNITARIO
($)

$ 20,017
µL=Dd*L σL=√(�^2 �)

4250.75676574 121.1315194336
unidades
Hillier, F. y Lieberman, G. (2015). Introducción a la investigación de operaciones (pp. 930-934). México, México:
Editorial McGraw-Hill Interamericana. Recuperado de http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2053/?il=2269

Hillier, F. y Lieberman, G. (2010). Introducción a la investigación de operaciones (pp. 725-737). México, México:
Editorial McGraw-Hill Interamericana. Recuperado de http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=edselb&AN=edselb.3214887&lang=es&site=eds-live

García, A. (2006). Programación estocástica por metas: teoría y aplicaciones económicas (pp. 84-87). Madrid, España:
Editorial Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Recuperado de
https://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2538/lib/unadsp/reader.action?
ppg=103&docID=3168854&tm=1541109698692
. México, México:
53/?il=2269

. México, México:
gin?
ang=es&site=eds-live

84-87). Madrid, España:

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