Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

0)
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of your chosen com
called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company will be consolidated.
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the company's
as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 3.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on Screener.in will be downloaded i
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is because if, for i
will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have created this Analysis sheet format)
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank" (Balance Sh
update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are key inputs in a few Intrinsi
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step 2 mentione
this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (just Cash an
assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before working on the s
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do that along with
in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and I will try to

7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedback and tho
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel Warning! Excel can be a wonderful to
(Ver. 4.0) But it can be a weapon of mass dest
future! So be very careful of what
Here, garbage in will always eq
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 424 Remember! Focus on decisions, no
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 disconfirming evidence. Ca
No. of Shares (Crore) 2.5
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 1,044

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details Please! It's your money. Please don't
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 179.2% this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -248.2% aid your own thinking, but you alon
your actions. I want to live peacefully
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) #DIV/0! sadist who wants you to do the ha
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.9 companies on your own. But I'd rath
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 15.8% instead of a map, for you can confu
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 15.0 and lose it all. All the
Latest P/E (x) 10.9
xcel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past.
be a weapon of mass destruction to predict the
o be very careful of what you are getting into.
, garbage in will always equal garbage out.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for

isconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

your money. Please don't blame me if results of

ause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to
own thinking, but you alone are responsible for
ns. I want to live peacefully ever after! I am not a
ho wants you to do the hard work by analyzing
on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
a map, for you can confuse map with territory
and lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it knows?

Has the company been buying back its shares?

Have retained earnings been invested well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly reinvest
in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that makes the
product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their unique niche.
However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with traditionally high
margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms. Also look for strong growth
in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively judge a
company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to construct a
quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing those companies that
operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can increase the size of the circle, but only
over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend to have
strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also seek companies
that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding earnings
(profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance sheets). To help
indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth rate is higher than the last
10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with
volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within its circle of
competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look at the company’s
past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations for the firm. Be cautious
of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While we do not
screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been employed profitably.
A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings and strong return on equity in
the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity without
employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately 16%. Thus, seek
companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above (like high
ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for an
investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained earnings must first
go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to maintain current operations,
the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that
consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait for the folly
of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble understanding this
philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and follow the principles, and
apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD Inv Cash Bank
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 2018 -
Equity Share Capital 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 20 25 25 2017 -
Reserves 35 35 36 38 41 54 78 351 716 801 2016 -
Borrowings 5 - 69 93 152 193 393 391 396 518 2015 -
Other Liabilities 149 176 308 296 309 361 236 49 205 295 2014 -
Total 200 223 424 438 513 620 718 812 1,342 1,639 2013 -
2012 -
Net Block 48 93 283 291 360 355 397 422 742 731 2011 -
Capital Work in Progress 119 96 105 42 7 146 161 217 379 686 2010 -
Investments - - - - - - - - - - 2009 -
Other Assets 33 33 35 105 147 119 160 174 221 222
Total 200 223 424 438 513 620 718 812 1,342 1,639

Working Capital -116 -144 -272 -191 -163 -242 -76 124 16 -74
Debtors 23 18 15 10 8 52 66 79 104 102
Inventory 8 10 14 14 26 42 28 31 33 31
Cash & Bank** - - - - - - - - - -
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days ### 324 196 68 21 77 88 92 109 90

Inventory Turnover 0 2 2 4 5 6 10 10 10 13
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6
Debt/Equity 0.1 - 1.5 1.9 2.9 3.0 4.4 1.1 0.5 0.6
Return on Equity -7% 1% 2% 4% 6% 20% 30% 11% 7% 11%
Return on Capital Employed -6% 1% 1% 2% 3% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Trailing
Sales 0 21 27 54 131 248 275 314 348 413 406
% Growth YOY 51625% 33% 98% 142% 89% 11% 14% 11% 19%
Expenses 3 25 25 49 117 214 227 240 242 275 263
Material Cost (% of Sales) 2375% 88% 92% 77% 89% 88% 74% 74% 58% 50% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 100% 29% 7% 8% 4% 2% 2% 2% 8% 11% expense items. For manufacturing
firms, check their material costs etc.
Other Mfr. Exp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% For services firms, look at employee
Employee Cost 1475% 9% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 350% 6% 7% 4% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Operating Profit -3 -4 2 5 14 33 48 74 105 138 143
Operating Profit Margin -7850% -21% 8% 10% 11% 14% 18% 24% 30% 33% 35%
Other Income 0 10 0 0 2 1 2 1 1 2 3
Other Income as % of Sales 125.0% 47.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
Depreciation - 5 1 4 9 11 11 14 15 16 16
Interest - - 0 0 1 10 13 14 18 18 18
Interest Coverage(Times) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 37 38 6 2 3 4 5 7 7
Profit before tax (PBT) -3 1 1 2 6 14 26 47 74 106 112
% Growth YOY -118% 96% 106% 164% 133% 93% 78% 57% 45%
PBT Margin -7725% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 10% 15% 21% 26% 28%
Tax 0 0 0 0 3 1 -0 5 21 18 17
Net profit -3 0 1 2 3 13 27 42 52 88 96
% Growth YOY -114% 96% 105% 87% 287% 106% 58% 24% 69%
Net Profit Margin -7775% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 10% 13% 15% 21% 24%
EPS -2.8 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.1 11.8 24.4 20.8 21.3 36.0 38.9
% Growth YOY -114% 96% 105% 87% 287% 106% -15% 3% 69%
Price to earning 5.6 14.4 27.3 12.7 10.9
Price - - - - - - 138 298 581 458 424
Dividend Payout 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.2%
Dividend per Share 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5
Market Cap - - - - - - 151 607 1,430 1,127
Retained Earnings -3 0 1 2 3 13 26 40 50 85
Buffett's $1 Test 5.2

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 179.2% 47.3% 25.7% 14.5%
PBT Growth -248.2% 92.6% 78.3% 59.0%
PBT Margin -763.3% 12.2% 15.4% 20.6%
Price to Earning 15.0 15.0 15.0 18.1

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over past 3 or 5
years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to 10 years) growth
numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD Cap. Exp
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Total 2018
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) -35 7 134 4 2 14 16 69 74 95 379 2017
% Growth YoY -121% 1782% -97% -49% 579% 14% 343% 7% 28% 2016
Cash from Investing Activity -5 -27 -200 -23 -48 -59 -71 -137 -169 -287 -1,027 2015
Cash from Financing Activity 40 20 69 19 59 31 55 68 109 180 651 2014
Net Cash Flow -0 0 3 0 13 -15 0 0 13 -13 2 2013
CFO/Sales -86925% 35% 490% 7% 2% 6% 6% 22% 21% 23% 2012
CFO/Net Profit 1118% 1587% 15268% 218% 60% 105% 58% 163% 141% 107% 2011
Capex** - - - - - - - - - - 2010
FCF -35 7 134 4 2 14 16 69 74 95 379 2009
Average FCF (3 Years) 79
FCF Growth YoY -121% 1782% -97% -49% 579% 14% 343% 7% 28%
FCF/Sales -86925% 35% 490% 7% 2% 6% 6% 22% 21% 23%
FCF/Net Profit #DIV/0! 1587% 15268% 215% 60% 105% 58% 163% 141% 107%

** Manually enter this number; Convert

to Rs Crore if not already done in the
Annual Reports; Use "Capital
expenditure" number shown under "Cash
Flow from Investing Activities" segment
of Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Sales Growth 51625.0% 32.5% 97.8% 142.1% 88.6% 11.2%
PBT Growth -117.8% 96.4% 106.5% 164.1% 132.8% 92.9%
Net Profit Growth -114.5% 95.6% 104.5% 87.2% 286.6% 105.6%
Dividend Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Operating Cash Flow Growth -120.5% 1781.8% -97.1% -48.7% 579.1% 14.0%
Free Cash Flow Growth -120.5% 1781.8% -97.1% -48.7% 579.1% 14.0%

Operating Margin -7850.0% -21.1% 8.1% 9.9% 11.0% 13.5% 17.5%

PBT Margin -7725.0% 2.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.5% 5.5% 9.6%
Net Margin -7775.0% 2.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.6% 5.3% 9.7%

Debtor Days ### 324.2 195.5 68.0 20.9 77.3 88.1

Inventory Turnover 0.0 2.0 2.0 3.8 5.0 5.9 9.7
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7
Debt/Equity 0.1 - 1.5 1.9 2.9 3.0 4.4
Debt/Assets 2.6% 0.0% 16.3% 21.2% 29.6% 31.2% 54.7%
Interest Coverage (Times) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 37.0 38.2 5.8 2.4 3.1
Return on Equity -6.8% 1.0% 1.9% 3.7% 6.5% 20.0% 30.1%
Return on Capital Employed -6.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 3.5% 9.1% 8.1%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -35 7 134 4 2 14 16
Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
14.1% 10.8% 18.6%
77.5% 56.5% 44.5%
57.6% 24.1% 68.9%
85.5% 20.6% 50.0%
342.8% 7.0% 28.3%
342.8% 7.0% 28.3%

23.5% 30.3% 33.5%

15.0% 21.1% 25.7%
13.4% 15.1% 21.4%

92.0 108.6 89.8

10.1 10.5 13.1
0.7 0.5 0.6
1.1 0.5 0.6
48.2% 29.5% 31.6%
4.3 5.1 6.8
11.4% 7.1% 10.7%
8.0% 8.0% 9.3%
69 74 95
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 2375% 88% 92% 77% 89% 88% 74% 74%
Change in Inventory -325% 12% 12% 3% 9% 6% -5% 1%
Power and Fuel 100% 29% 7% 8% 4% 2% 2% 2%
Other Mfr. Exp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Employee Cost 1475% 9% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Selling and Admin Cost 350% 6% 7% 4% 3% 1% 1% 0%
Other Expenses 3325% 1% -3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Profit -7200% -44% -17% 4% -7% 2% 27% 21%
Other Income 125% 47% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Depreciation 0% 23% 5% 7% 7% 4% 4% 4%
Interest 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 5% 4%
Profit Before Tax 50% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 10% 15%
Tax 50% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2%
Net Profit 0% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 10% 13%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Reserves 17% 16% 8% 9% 8% 9% 11% 43%
Borrowings 3% 0% 16% 21% 30% 31% 55% 48%
Other Liabilities 75% 79% 73% 68% 60% 58% 33% 6%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 24% 42% 67% 66% 70% 57% 55% 52%
Capital Work in Progress 60% 43% 25% 10% 1% 23% 22% 27%
Investments 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 16% 15% 8% 24% 29% 19% 22% 21%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 12% 8% 3% 2% 1% 8% 9% 10%
Inventory 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 7% 4% 4%
Cash & Bank 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Mar-18 Mar-19
100% 100%
58% 50% A common-size financial statement is displays line items
as a percentage of one selected or common figure.
0% 0% Creating common-size financial statements makes it
8% 11% easier to analyze a company over time and compare it
0% 1% with its peers. Using common-size financial statements
helps investors spot trends that a raw financial statement
1% 2% may not uncover.
1% 1%
0% 1%
30% 34%
0% 1%
4% 4%
5% 4%
21% 26%
6% 4%
15% 21%
1% 1%

Mar-18 Mar-19
2% 2%
53% 49%
30% 32%
15% 18%
100% 100%
55% 45%
28% 42%
0% 0%
16% 14%
100% 100%
8% 6%
2% 2%
1% 0%
 Profit Margin Capital Allocation
2000% 35%
0% 30%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 25%
-2000%
20%
-4000% 15%
-6000% 10%
5%
-8000%
0%
-10000% -5%Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14
Operating Margin PBT Margin -10%
Net Margin ROE RO

Revenue Over Time Revenue and Profi

450 60000%
400 50000%
350 40000%
300 30000%
250 20000%
200 10000%
150 0%
100
-10000% Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/
50
Revenue Growth
-
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Net Profit Growth

Profit Over Time

120
100
80
60
40
20
-
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
-20
PBT Net Profit
Data for Charts
Margins
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Operating Margin -7850% -21% 8% 10% 11% 14% 18% 24% 30% 33%
PBT Margin -7725% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 10% 15% 21% 26%
Net Margin -7775% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 10% 13% 15% 21%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
ROE -7% 1% 2% 4% 6% 20% 30% 11% 7% 11%
ROCE -6% 1% 1% 2% 3% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Revenue Growth 51625% 33% 98% 142% 89% 11% 14% 11% 19%
PBT Growth -118% 96% 106% 164% 133% 93% 78% 57% 45%
Net Profit Growth -114% 96% 105% 87% 287% 106% 58% 24% 69%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Revenue 0 21 27 54 131 248 275 314 348 413
PBT -3 1 1 2 6 14 26 47 74 106
Net Profit -3 0 1 2 3 13 27 42 52 88
 Capital Allocation Quality

0 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth

an/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth
COMPANY NAME SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY C
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 2.46
Face Value 10
Current Price 424.25
Market Capitalization 1043.66

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 0.04 20.69 27.42 54.23 131.31
Raw Material Cost 0.95 18.22 25.24 41.87 117.15
Change in Inventory -0.13 2.41 3.39 1.61 12.06
Power and Fuel 0.04 6.1 1.9 4.43 5.41
Other Mfr. Exp 0.02 0.08 0.17 0.6
Employee Cost 0.59 1.8 0.49 1.17 1.45
Selling and admin 0.14 1.19 1.81 2.41 3.61
Other Expenses 1.33 0.13 -0.93 0.43 0.7
Other Income 0.05 9.72 0.34 0.47 1.54
Depreciation 4.81 1.45 3.54 8.88
Interest 0.03 0.06 1.22
Profit before tax 0.02 0.55 1.07 2.25 5.87
Tax 0.02 0.1 0.2 0.43 2.52
Net profit 0.45 0.88 1.82 3.36
Dividend Amount

Quarters
Report Date Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Sales 81.71 78.39 82.18 88.38 97.2
Expenses 57.19 60.02 55 57.67 66.33
Other Income 0.44 0.33 0.06 0.03 0.63
Depreciation 3.48 3.61 3.67 3.94 3.87
Interest 4.05 4.43 4.64 4.3 4.48
Profit before tax 17.43 10.66 18.93 22.5 23.15
Tax 0.36 2.14 3.8 6.78 6.38
Net profit 17.07 8.53 15.13 15.72 16.78
Operating Profit 24.52 18.37 27.18 30.71 30.87

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 11 11 11 11 11
Reserves 34.61 35.06 35.94 37.76 41.11
Borrowings 5.25 68.85 93.03 151.8
Other Liabilities 148.87 176.47 307.81 296.42 309.14
Total 199.73 222.53 423.6 438.21 513.05
Net Block 48.13 93.29 283.31 291.14 359.77
Capital Work in Progress 118.88 96.33 104.91 41.85 6.74
Investments
Other Assets 32.72 32.91 35.38 105.22 146.54
Total 199.73 222.53 423.6 438.21 513.05
Receivables 23.12 18.38 14.69 10.1 7.53
Inventory 7.85 10.32 13.63 14.44 26.45
Cash & Bank 0.03 0.23 3.41 3.85 16.5
No. of Equity Shares 11000000 11000000 11000000 11000000 11000000
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity -34.77 7.14 134.36 3.92 2.01
Cash from Investing Activity -5.35 -27.41 -200.05 -22.66 -48.21
Cash from Financing Activity 40.06 20.48 68.87 19.18 58.85
Net Cash Flow -0.06 0.21 3.18 0.44 12.65

PRICE:

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

247.61 275.28 314.07 347.9 412.78
218.11 203.31 232.83 203.18 205.87
14.5 -13.53 3.28 1.16 -1.79
5.15 4.32 5.1 29.26 46.6
0.04 0.46 0.7 1.05 3.86
1.68 2.14 2.81 4.59 6.4
3.17 2.64 0.88 4.27 5.23
0.49 0.62 1.11 1.29 4.77
0.7 1.84 0.85 1.04 2.16
10.55 10.93 13.68 15.1 15.99
9.91 12.72 14.13 17.85 18.18
13.71 26.44 46.96 73.51 106.25
0.68 -0.34 4.73 21.12 17.76
13.03 26.78 42.23 52.4 88.49
1.1 2.04 2.46 3.69

Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19

105.12 107.6 104.67 95.39 98.17
70.86 69.92 68.88 62.85 61.43
0.25 0.1 0.63 1.18 1.12
3.94 4.01 4.02 3.97 4.02
4.63 4.83 4.7 3.92 4.05
25.94 28.94 27.7 25.83 29.79
7.62 5.41 5.12 -0.37 6.44
18.33 23.54 22.58 26.2 23.35
34.26 37.68 35.79 32.54 36.74

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

 11 11 20.35 24.6 24.6
54.14 78.09 350.83 715.74 801.33
193.33 393.16 391.22 396.38 517.76
361.32 236.11 49.36 204.91 295.32
619.79 718.36 811.76 1341.63 1639.01
355.13 397.09 421.6 742.22 731.41
145.65 160.94 216.54 378.75 685.96

119.01 160.33 173.62 220.66 221.64

619.79 718.36 811.76 1341.63 1639.01
52.42 66.42 79.17 103.53 101.55
41.73 28.42 31.17 33.2 31.41
1.85 2 2.73 15.91 3.02
11000000 11000000 20350000 24600000 24600000

10 10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

13.65 15.56 68.9 73.71 94.6
-59.34 -70.61 -136.8 -169.47 -287.28
31.04 55.21 68.39 108.85 179.66
-14.65 0.16 0.49 13.09 -13.02

137.5 298.15 581.35 457.95

1.10 1.10 2.04 2.46 2.46

 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) - Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 91 81 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 105 83 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 120 86 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 132 84 4 FY21
5 FY22 146 83 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 160 81 Sales 26% 6 FY23
7 FY24 168 76 PBT 78% 7 FY24
8 FY25 176 71 FCF 116% 8 FY25
9 FY26 185 67 9 FY26
10 FY27 195 63 10 FY27
10 1,946 626 10
Intrinsic Value 1,401 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 1,044 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -26% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as the starting num
number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history of this business while arriving
assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of reality.
Calculation
y Mohnish Pabrai

SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) - Year 1-3 20%
95 85 Year 4-6 15%
114 91 Year 7-10 10%
137 97 Discount Rate 12%
157 100
181 103
208 105
229 103
251 102
277 100
304 98
4,564 1,469
Intrinsic Value 2,452
Current Mkt. Cap. 1,044
Premium/(Discount) to IV -57%

malized positive FCF as the starting number. This

he history of this business while arriving at your
fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/19 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 44.6 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 46.1 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 4,492 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 1,044 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
Mar/19

44.6
8.5
92.2

8,605
1,044

owth rate for the next 7-10 years

und 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this number by today’s AAA
e this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 79 1,800

1,044
Years 1-5 6-10 172%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) 518

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 91 15% 81
2 105 15% 83
3 120 15% 86
4 138 15% 88
5 159 15% 90
6 178 12% 90
7 199 12% 90
8 223 12% 90
9 250 12% 90
10 280 12% 90

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 286
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 879
Terminal Value 920
Total PV of Cash Flows 1,800
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1,044

Note: See explanation of DCF here

luation

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
Particulars Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) - 0 1 2 3 13
Net Profit Margin 0% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5%
Return on Equity -7% 1% 2% 4% 6% 20%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 275
Current P/E (x) 11.8
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 5,497
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 1,770
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1,044

Note: See explanation of this model here

Model
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
27 42 52 88 #DIV/0! 92%
10% 13% 15% 21%
30% 11% 7% 11%
 Intrinsic Value Range
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
Lower Higher
Dhandho 1,401 2,452 570 997
Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair value only
Ben Graham 4,492 8,605 1,826 3,498 you have answered in "Yes" to these two questions - (1) Is this bu
DCF 1,800 732 simple to be understood? and (2) Can I understand this busine
Expected Return 1,770 719
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less no
Current Market Cap. 1,044 424 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will b
analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-the-envel
26%
Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the futu
don't invest your savings just because you fall in love with it. Don't
516 perfection. It is overrated. Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Loo
disconfirming evidence.
 ortance to a stock's valuations / fair value only "after"
in "Yes" to these two questions - (1) Is this business
derstood? and (2) Can I understand this business?

ntify everything. In stock research, the less non-

re, the more simple, sensible, and useful will be your
. Great analysis is generally "back-of-the-envelope".

d "fair value" will be proven wrong in the future, so

ngs just because you fall in love with it. Don't look for
errated. Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for
disconfirming evidence.
SEYA INDUSTRIES LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Sales 82 78 82 88 97 105 108 105 95 98
% Growth YOY 19% 34% 31% 18% -2% -7%
Expenses 57 60 55 58 66 71 70 69 63 61
Operating Profit 25 18 27 31 31 34 38 36 33 37
Other Income 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1
Depreciation 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Interest 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4
Profit before tax 17 11 19 23 23 26 29 28 26 30
PBT Margin 21% 14% 23% 25% 24% 25% 27% 26% 27% 30%
% Growth YOY 33% 143% 53% 23% 12% 15%
Tax 0 2 4 7 6 8 5 5 -0 6
Net profit 17 9 15 16 17 18 24 23 26 23
% Growth YOY -2% 115% 56% 44% 56% 27%
OPM 30% 23% 33% 35% 32% 33% 35% 34% 34% 37%
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