Water and Environment Journal.

Print ISSN 1747-6585

Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan: a choice

experiment approach
Guofang Zhai1, Teruki Fukuzono2 & Saburo Ikeda2,3
1
National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM), Nagase, Yokosuka-city, Japan; 2National Research Institute for Earth Science and
Disaster Prevention (NIED), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and 3University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan

Keywords
choice experiment; flood prevention measures;
Japan; marginal willingness to pay; multi-
attribute evaluation.
Correspondence
Guofang Zhai, National Institute for Land and
Infrastructure Management (NILIM), 1-1, 3
Chome, Nagase, Yokosuka-city 239-0826,
Japan. Email: zhai-g92y2@ysk.nilim.go.jp
doi:10.1111/j.1747-6593.2007.00072.x
Abstract
This paper intends to clarify the relationship among the important attributes of
flood prevention measures and the effects of socio-economic factors on the
public preferences of selecting the measures based on the choice experiment
approach. The experiment was conducted via a mail survey in the Toki–Shonai
River basin of central Japan. First, the relationships among the five attributes
(external flood reduction, internal flood reduction, early warning systems,
environmental protection and willingness to pay for such countermeasures)
were quantitatively clarified, and it was shown that an early warning system in
terms of fatality rate due to floods was lowly evaluated by the public. Second,
certain socio-economic factors, like annual household income, flood experi-
ence, sex and distance to a river, had statistically significant impacts on the
utility functions in our model. Third and finally, there was a statistically
significant difference in regional model results between Toki city and Kita ward
of Nagoya city. These results imply the necessity to implement localized
watershed management in Japanese urban catchments, and to improve
information provision and public understanding of flood risk.

and flood prevention, including a survey by the

Introduction
In Japan, floodplains hold about 49% of the population
and 75% of the property, and flooding is currently a
serious natural hazard. Flood management policy has
changed drastically in Japan over the past century,
partially due to the success in reducing the loss of life
and increasing awareness on environmental issues relat-
ing to the river and landscape. In particular, when the
New River Law, revised in 1997, is implemented, public
preference and involvement will play a more important
role in decision-making processes regarding river man-
agement from the stage of river planning through parti-
cipating in briefing sessions, public hearings, polls of
residents etc. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Trans-
port (MLIT), Japan, is responsible for implementing the
new law. The law not only sets down the objective of
river management as an integration of flood prevention,
water utilization and environmental preservation but
also emphasizes the importance of public involvement
in decision making. However, much of the related
research has focused on public preferences regarding
specific issues, such as water quality, river landscapes,
Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan (2001).
This body of research, however, has not gone further
by globally considering the relationships among the
various attributes of flood prevention measures, like
external flooding occurrences due to breakage of dikes
internal flooding occurrences due to shortages of sewage
system capacity, fatalities, environmental protection of
rivers and contributions of individuals to pay for these
measures.
Applying multicriteria methods for participatory deci-
sion making in river basin management is becoming a
challenge. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to
clarify the relationships among the different attributes of
flood prevention measures through a random-utility-
based choice experiment approach utilizing the results of
a mail survey conducted in the Toki–Shonai River region
of Central Japan. Specifically, the following questions will
be answered. What is the willingness to pay (WTP) for
flood prevention measures? What are the relationships
between the different attributes? What is the local popu-
lation’s marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for each
attribute? How does providing information on the

Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

c 2007 CIWEM. 265
Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan G. Zhai et al.

negative effects of flood prevention measures affect the Supposing that the random terms have an extreme-
MWTP? And are there any differences in the results value (Gumbel) distribution, the probability of choosing
between the two parts of the study region? Furthermore, the ith scenario from the choice set Y follows a logistic
if there are any differences, what are the main factors, and distribution and leads to what is called the conditional
how significant are their effects? Finally, what implica- logit model (McFadden 1973; Greene 2003):
tions on flood management policy can be found from the X
findings? Pði=Y Þ ¼ expðlVi Þ= expðlVi Þ: ð2Þ
j
A choice experiment approach was utilized to answer
these questions. It was initially reported within the
marketing and transport literature (Louviere & Wood- To estimate the indirect utility function, the following
worth 1983; Louviere 1988a, b; Louviere 1992), and then linear form is often applied:
applied to certain environmental management problems X X
(Adamowicz et al. 1994). It was not until the late 1990s, Vin ¼ Ai þ bj xij þ ah zhn ; ð3Þ
j h
however, that this approach was applied in other fields
like environmental studies. The authors are not currently where Ai is an alternative-specific constant (ASC), bj is the
aware of any research that has applied this approach to parameter of the jth attribute of the ith alternative
evaluate flood prevention measures. represented by the variable xij, and ah is the parameter of
the hth characteristic of person n represented by zhn.

Analytical framework
Choice modelling is based on the idea that any good can
be described in terms of its attributes, or characteristics,
and their levels (Bateman et al. 2002). The main theore-
tical support for the choice experiment technique is the
random utility theory (Thurstone 1927; McFadden 1973;
Manski 1977), which is framed as an alternative theory of
choice to that used to derive conventional demand
curves. According to the random utility theory, consu-
mers maximize their utility function (subject to a budget
constraint), whose random term is supposed to have a
specific distribution:
Ui ¼ Vi þ ei ;
where Ui is the utility to choose the ith scenario, Vi is the
deterministic component and e is the random term.
Data
Survey area
The survey area was the Shonai–Toki River basin, located
in central Japan (Fig. 1). The upper and lower reaches are
called the Toki River and the Shonai River, respectively.
The main stream is 96 km long. The basin has an area of
1010 km2 and is home to about 4 million residents. The
predicted mean and base flows in the lower reaches of the
Toki–Shonai River are 28.21 and 10.2 m3/s, respectively,
for a 50-year return period. The predicted mean and base
flows for a 200-year return period are, respectively, 3150
ð1Þ
and 4500 m3/s. The upper reach is quite different from the
lower one in terms of both the natural environment
(climate and geographical features) and socio-economic

Aichi Gifu Pref.

Pref.
Toki River
Toki City

Gifu Pref.

Tokyo River Aichi

Shonai Pref.
Osaka
N
Nagoya
city
0 5 10 15 km

Fig. 1. Location of the survey area.

266 Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

c 2007 CIWEM.
G. Zhai et al.
patterns (urbanization, population and property accumu-
lation). Therefore, the authors selected Kita (North) ward
of Nagoya city, Aichi Prefecture, in the lower reach, and
Toki city, Gifu Prefecture, in the upper reach, as survey
areas to see whether public preferences regarding flood
prevention would be different.
Disastrous floods frequently occur in the survey area,
e.g., during the last 50 years, Typhoon Isewan in 1960,
typhoon no. 17 in 1971, a flood in 1989, a flood in 1994
and the Tokai Flood in 2000. In particular, the Tokai
Flood, resulting from a heavy rainfall with an hourly
precipitation of up to 97 mm and a total precipitation of
567 mm, inundated the Tokai area, including the city of
Nagoya, home to 2.1 million residents. This storm, re-
garded as an event occurring ‘once in over 200 years’,
caused 10 deaths, major injuries to 20 people, and direct
economic losses of Y978.3 billion. It was one of the most
serious flood disasters in terms of economic loss in
Japanese history, according to MLIT statistics.
The current sewage systems in Toki and Nagoya were
designed for the 5-year internal flood, while the levees
and banks were designed for the 100-year flood in Toki
and the 200-year flood in Nagoya. Implementing flood
prevention measures for higher levels requires under-
standing residents’ WTP for them.
Survey design and implementation
To yield useful information, a careful survey design is
critical. The survey purpose determines the survey mode
and the accuracy of the results. The ultimate implications
of this survey include possibly helping to improve flood
prevention measures in Japan, and understanding certain
theoretical issues like the effect of the information pro-
vided in questionnaires on WTP. Face-to-face interviews,
as proposed by Arrow et al. (1993), are usually preferable
to elicit more accurate values of WTP but cost much more
than other methods. A mail survey is feasible for the
above survey purposes (Desvousgaes et al. 1998) instead
of face-to-face interviews in terms of the relative accuracy
and the difficulty of cost. Because the recurrence of floods
Table 1 Attributes and levels in the choice experiment
Attributes
Measures/goals Probability of reducing disastrous
flood occurrence (%)
Inundation depth decrease (cm)
Fatality rate due to floods
Improvement rate for river environment (%)
Annual additional expense
per capita (yen)
Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan
at specific levels, like a 100-year flood or a 200-year flood,
can be difficult for respondents to understand, relative
improvement rates are used.
Floods can be classified as external or internal depend-
ing on the source of water. Common sense would dictate
that countermeasures to prevent damage from internal or
external floods with early warning systems should be in
place, and yet at the same time, minimizing effects on the
environment. Therefore, based on the current flood-
management measure ideas, the past experience of the
authors, and the authors’ discussion on the argument on
flood-management measures, the authors assessed five
criteria (attributes) that comprise different public prefer-
ences for flood prevention measures: external flood re-
duction, internal flood reduction, early warning systems,
environmental protection and WTP for such counter-
measures. These criteria were represented as occurrence
of disastrous floods, inundation depth, fatality rate, en-
vironmental improvement ratio and annual additional
expense per capita, respectively. Four levels were assigned
to each attribute to produce a possible choice combination
(Table 1).
To help individuals understand each attribute and
perceive that each attribute is intrinsically separable to
meet the assumptions of an orthogonal design that deter-
mines the minimum number of combinations necessary
to be able to precisely estimate public preferences, brief
explanations of all attributes were provided in the survey
questionnaires. External flood refers to floods due to the
collapse or overflow of dikes or dams as a result of rains
that exceed normal expected rainfall levels, whereas an
internal flood refers to floods due to limited sewage and
pumping capacity during rains. External flood reduction
measures involve constructing dams, dikes, and canals
and restoring riverbeds. Internal flood reduction mea-
sures include improving the distribution of the drainage
system, enlarging the discharge capacity of the drainage
system and reducing the discharge of rainfall entering the
drainage system by increasing rainfall infiltration.
In addition to structural measures, like external/inter-
nal flood measures, nonstructural measures, like an early
Attribute levels
Status quo 1 2 3
0  10  20  50
0  20  50  100
1 in 10 000 0.9 in 10 000 0.8 in 10 000 0.5 in 10 000
0 10 20 50
0 2000 5000 10 000
c 2007 CIWEM. 267
Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan
warning system, disaster insurance, hazard and evacua-
tion mapping, land-use regulation, permitting controlled
overflow into swales, preserving natural environments
and relocating dwellings, are also very important.
Although flood fatalities are regarded as a consequence
of floods, the number of fatalities largely depends on the
presence of an early warning and evacuation system.
Therefore, it was emphasized in the questionnaire that if
an effective early warning and evacuation system is
established, the fatality rate might be greatly reduced.
The river environment was defined in the question-
naire as the natural environment, including aquatic
plants and animals of rivers and the terrestrial diverse
ecosystem of the waterside, and the human living envir-
onment that comprises water quality, landscape and river
space. The river environment may be partially impaired
by structural (external/internal) measures. However, to
ensure that the attributes were independent of each
other, the focus was on the effects of increasing popula-
tion and economic development on the river environ-
ment. The questionnaire stated that ‘with the flood risk
reduction by constructing flood management projects like
dams and levees and improving urban drainage system,
floodplain is developed; population and property are
accumulated. Consequently, the river environment may
be polluted and biodiversity will be lost’. Moreover,
additional expenses will be necessary for both flood
management measures and river environment protection
and will ultimately have to be paid for by the residents.
The probability of a disastrous flood occurrence was
defined as the probability of floods due to collapse or
overflow of dikes and dams as a result of rains exceeding
those that would be expected on the basis of probability;
in Japan, this is also called an external flood. At the
moment, the dikes in Nagoya city are built to withstand
200-year rains, while those in Toki city are built to with-
stand 100-year rains. The levels for this attribute were
defined as  10, 20, 50% and status quo (0%). Inunda-
tion depth reduction was defined as the decrease in the
depth of inundation due to the reduced sewage and
pumping capacity during rains; in Japan, this is also called
an internal flood. The levels for this attribute were
defined as  10,  20,  50 cm and status quo (0 cm).
The fatality rate due to floods was defined as the number
of deaths due to a flood over the total population affected
by the flood. The current fatality rate due to floods is
approximately 1 in 10 000 per flood event irrespective of
the flood return period (Zhai et al. 2006). Here, the levels
were specified as 0.9 in 10 000, 0.8 in 10 000, 0.5 in 10 000
and status quo (1 in 10 000). Because the occurrence of
fatalities largely depends on early warning and evacua-
tion systems, the fatality rate reduction may be viewed as
its representative index. The river environment refers to
268 Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

G. Zhai et al.
the natural environment, including the aquatic plants
and animals in a river and in the waterfront ecosystem,
and the living environment at the interface between the
river and human beings, including the water quality,
landscape, and river space. The levels for this attribute
were defined as improvement rates of 10, 20, 50% and
status quo (0%).
The last attribute is the additional expense of flood
prevention measures that residents are willing to bear.
The average public expenses for flood management in
2002 were 14 000 yen/year/person in Toki city and
17 400 yen/year/person in Nagoya city, respectively. WTP
studies in Japan show that most WTP for environmental
protection usually is 2000–3000 yen/year/person, much
o10 000 yen/year/person. Therefore, the additional ex-
pense of flood prevention measures that residents are
willing to pay was suggested in the survey with levels of
2000, 5000, 10 000 yen/year/person and status quo
(0 yen/year/person). Currency rates are 116.38 yen for
one US dollar and 155.37 for one Euro on 6 December
2006. Because the mean WTP for a tax mode is higher
than that for the donation mode much used in WTP
studies in Japan (Hidano & Kato 2000), a donation mode
was used to establish a more realistic MWTP for river
environment improvement and flood disaster reduc-
tion, even though they are typically financed by the
government.
Based on the attributes and their levels, 12 choice sets
were created by following three steps. The first step was to
apply an orthogonal design approach using Statistical
Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 10.0J
(SPSS Inc. 1999) and to obtain possible options. The
second step was to remove the infeasible and unrealistic
options through discussion within the project team. The
final step was to produce the valuation question cards
from the left options.
The valuation section of the survey consisted of four
separate questions. For each question, respondents were
asked to choose the most desirable of three alternatives
based on descriptions of flood prevention measures at
different prices (options A, B and C), or to choose option
D (the status quo) (Fig. 2).
In addition to a thorough discussion of the question-
naire draft, a pretest was carried out. Based on the
information returned, the questionnaire was revised. The
survey was conducted from 24 March to 16 April 2004. A
total of 500 households each were randomly chosen from
a commercial phone directory database, Kurofune 2004
(Datascape & Communications Inc. 2004), for Toki city
and Kita ward. The questionnaires included 26 questions,
and 148 detailed items were sent by mail with a cover
letter, a stamped envelope, and a small packet of flower
seeds as a small gift. A reminder was sent two weeks after
c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

c 2007 CIWEM.
G. Zhai et al.
Please examine each question below and choose ONE AND ONLY ONE option.
Option A
Probability of disaster
10% decrease
occurrence
Inundation depth Status quo
Fatality rate due to
floods 0.8 in 10 000
Improvement rate for
Status quo
river environment
Annual additional
¥5000
expense per capita
↓ ↓
I would select A.
Fig. 2. Valuation question card from the questionnaire.
the initial mailing. Of a total of 962 surveys that were
validly distributed (479 in Kita ward and 483 in Toki city),
428 surveys (201 in Kita ward and 227 in Toki city) were
received, yielding a response rate of 44.5%. Compared
with the parliamentary election rates of 50–60%, by-
election rates of around 30% currently in Japan, the
response rate is regarded as acceptable.
Results
To find detailed relationships between the utility and the
attributes or individual characteristics, the analysis results
can be discussed in terms of four aspects. The first is to
provide a statistical summary to help understand the
results. The second is to evaluate the two types of models
that were applied, one containing only attributes and the
other containing both attributes and individual character-
istics, in order to see whether they correctly describe the
data and to determine which variables significantly im-
pact each model. The third is to obtain important infor-
mation like the marginal substitute rate from the
validated model or models. The fourth is to discuss
whether there are regional differences in the model
results.
Statistical summary of survey
Table 2 lists a statistical summary of all the variables used
in the following model analysis. Of the 428 returned
samples, 193 subjects provided all four valuation cards,
yielding 3088 choices for analysis. Despite the limited
number of subjects, the survey may be considered accep-
table because the results correlated with our previous
large-scale survey on flood management.
Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan
Option B Option C Option D
(Status quo)
Status quo 20% decrease Status quo
20 cm decrease 100 cm decrease Status quo
0.9 in 10 000 Status quo 1 in 10 000
50% improvement Status quo Status quo
¥5000 ¥5000 ¥0
↓ ↓
B. C. D.
A well-designed large-scale questionnaire survey on
flood management was performed in Japan in 2001. Of
the 4000 surveys that were distributed by mail to ran-
domly selected residents from a basic resident register,
3036 questionnaires (a recovery rate of 75.9%) were
obtained after surveyors paid visits to the residents’
homes (Zhai et al. 2005). The respondents’ characteristics
of both surveys were very close in terms of age and
income. For example, the mean age was 53.2 and the
mean annual household income was 5.2 million yen
(transformed from the mean annual household income
rank: 3.6), which were very close to the 2001 statistical
results (56.7 for age and 6.0 million yen for annual
household income). The distributions of respondent age
and annual household income were also similar between
the two surveys. The distribution of annual income per
household is as follows: 9.0% earning o2 million yen,
24.9% at 2–4 million yen, 27.2% at 4–6 million yen,
13.7% at 6–8 million yen, 8.7% at 8–10 million yen,
5.9% at 10–12 million yen, 4.8% at 12–14 million yen
and 5.6% at more than 14 million yen.
On the other hand, 33.2% respondents wrote down
their free comments in comment columns and 21.3%
respondents required survey reports. This survey incen-
tive may be regarded compatible and consequential.
Moreover, the item response rates for each individual
valuation card were acceptable, which accounted for
85.5% for the first card, 82.9% for the second card,
82.4% for the third card and 82.7% for the fourth card.
Analysis results for multinomial logit models
Table 3 shows the results for two multinomial logit
models, denoted as Models 1 and 2, which were both
processed with LIMDEP version 8.0 (Greene 2002).
c 2007 CIWEM. 269
Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan G. Zhai et al.

Table 2 Statistical summary

Standard
Variable Description Mean deviation Minimum Maximum
Sex Sex (male = 1, female= 2) 1.26 0.44 1 2
Age Age (teenage = 1, 20s = 2, . . ., 60s =6, 4 70 = 7) 5.32 1.15 2 7
Income Annual household income (0–2 m yen= 1, 2–4 m yen= 2, . . ., 12–14 m =7, more 3.60 1.83 0 8
than 14 m yen= 8)
Education Education (junior high school =1, high school = 2, college = 3, university = 4, 2.38 1.03 1 5
graduate= 5)
Distance Distance to river (o100 m= 1, 100–500 m = 2, 500 m–1 km = 3, 1–2 km = 4, 3.06 1.64 1 7
2–5 km = 5, more than 5 km = 6, do not know= 7
Experience Experience of floods (with = 1, without = 2) 1.61 0.49 1 2
Infoenv Providing information on the effects of flood prevention measures on the river 0.46 0.50 0 1
environment (no= 0, yes= 1)
Infobudg Providing information on municipal budgets for public facilities (no = 0, yes = 1) 0.48 0.50 0 1
Region Upper river reach: Toki city= 1 1.50 0.50 1 2
Lower river reach: Nagoya= 2
Probability Probability of disastrous flood occurrence 0.86 0.18 0.5 1
Depth Inundation depth reduction (cm)  26.99 34.27  100 0
Fatality Fatality rate due to floods (per 10 000) 0.86 0.17 0.5 1
Environment Improvement rate for river environment 0.13 0.18 0 0.5
Expense Annual additional expense per capita (yen) 3203.69 2872.80 0 10 000

Model 1 comprised the attributes and constants, while
Model 2 was a full model consisting both the attributes
and the socio-economic factors. Region, Infoenv, Info-
budg, Education and Distance were dummy variables in
the model. To correctly draw inferences from the model
results, it was important to validate the models. The
validation included evaluating the goodness of fit and
assessing each variable coefficient, including the ASCs.
The explanatory power of Model 2 was a slightly stronger,
with an R2 and an adjusted R2 of 0.2459 and 0.226,
respectively.
The hypothesis that the socio-economic factors are not
significant in explaining the respondents’ choice prefer-
ences was strongly rejected by the likelihood ratio test:
w2 =2[852.2–807.1] =90.2. The critical w2 value for 51
degrees of freedom is 68.7. This means that the socio-
economic factors significantly affected an individual’s
decision making, and thus, Model 2 was statistically
proven to be stronger than Model 1 in terms of its
explanatory power.
Four attributes (Probability, Depth, Environment and
Expense) were statistically significant, and their coeffi-
cient signs were the same in both models, while the
attribute of Fatality was statistically insignificant in both
models (0.97 and 0.76) when the ASCs and socio-eco-
nomic factors were considered in the model. These results
can be explained in two ways. One is that the probability
of death due to floods is lower than other natural risks
that people cannot control, like thunder. The annual
number of fatalities due to floods in Japan usually num-
bers no more than 100, which is much less than the
numbers of fatalities due to other hazards like fire (1500),
traffic accidents (8000) and home accidents (15 000). The
other is that due to the previous reason, it is certainly
difficult to perceive the difference in the levels surveyed.
All ASC coefficients were positive and statistically
significant across all options in Model 1, but not in Model
2. ASCs can capture a mixture of status quo bias effects
and the impacts of unobserved attributes in an attribute-
only model (Bateman et al. 2002). Thus, the different
forms of the ASCs in Models 1 and 2 implied that the
impact of unobserved attributes like the socio-economic
factors was important, which is consistent with the model
evaluation results mentioned above.
The effects of the socio-economic factors can be dis-
cussed in terms of their interaction with the ASCs,
although it is difficult to interpret. First, all interaction
terms with Sex and Income had statistically significantly
positive impacts on the utility at the 0.1 and 0.05 levels,
respectively, and this is consistent with common knowl-
edge. Females made more demands for flood manage-
ment measures than males, and the rich have more
MWTP due to their economic power than the poor.
Second, although no interaction terms with Experience
and Infoenv were statistically significant for all three non-
status-quo options at the 0.05 level, the negative values
obtained imply that those with flood experience might
have more desire to have flood management measures.
These results also imply that those who were informed of
the negative effects of flood management measures on

270 Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

c 2007 CIWEM.
G. Zhai et al. Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan

Table 3 Results for two multinomial logit models with choice as a dependent variable

Model 1 (attributes and constants) Model 2 (full model)

Probability  0.9966  0.93

Depth  0.0063  0.006
Fatality  0.0096 0.044
Environment 0.8896 0.91
Expense  0.0002  0.00022

Interaction terms with ASCs Interaction terms with ASCs

ASCA ASCB ASCC ASCA ASCB ASCC
Constant 1.8218 2.2345 1.9367  1.2895 0.3679  0.4038
Region 0.2455 0.0516 0.1416
Infoenv  0.6433  0.6453  0.5245
Infobudg 0.4696 0.7351 0.395
Experience  0.5065  0.5773  0.9624
Sex 0.9992 1.0349 1.2574
Age 0.1822  0.0262 0.1047
Income 0.3567 0.2917 0.4145
Education_High School 0.3556 0.3131 0.4822
Education_Junior College 1.4594 1.3526 1.0188
Education_College 0.6229 0.9909 1.0765
Education_Graduate 0.1025 29.8471 29.6052
Distance2  0.1597  0.0809  0.5251
Distance3 1.0998 1.4246 0.9368
Distance4 0.2253 0.6367 0.7725
Distance5 0.2403 0.6752  0.0328
Distance6 0.4128 1.7681  0.0179
Distance7 27.4924 28.4323 27.8686
No. of observations 772 772
No. of choices 3088 3088
Log likelihood  852.2  807.1
Adjusted R2 0.201 0.226
w2 145.427 235.56

ASCA, ASCB and ASCC are the ASCs of options A, B and C with respect to option D (status quo).
,,andrefer to the significant levels of 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1, respectively.
ASC, alternative-specific constant.

the environment might have less need for flood manage-
ment measures. These findings are somewhat expected
and of no real surprise.
Third, no interaction terms with Region, Infobudg and
Age were statistically significant for all three non-status-
quo options at the 0.05 level, but they had positive signs.
The finding shows that Kita ward of Nagoya city may have
a stronger need for flood management measures than
Toki city, whose needs also arise from its location in a
floodplain and the disastrous flood of 2000. The disclosure
of budget information may aid public understanding of
budget conditions and improve communication and trust
between the administration and the residents. Conse-
quently, this may increase the public desire for flood
management measures. The older generation may have
more experience and more knowledge on flood disasters
than the younger generation.
Fourth and finally, some interaction terms with Educa-
tion and Distance were statistically significant. Those who
finished at least junior college may have more need for
flood management measures than those who did not
finish. The effects of distance to river on the demands for
flood management measures varied from small near the
riversides, to large when 500 m to 1 km away from the
river, and then to small when the distance to the river
exceeded 1 km, showing an inverted V shape. This is
closely related to micro fluvial topography. Natural levees
usually form on either side of the rivers due to repeated
flood sedimentations that occur over time. These levees
are stable and suitable for housing use. The areas outside
the levees are back marshes, and these areas are unstable
and suitable for agriculture use. The areas outside the
levees are highlands; these areas are also stable and
suitable for housing. The natural levee and highland areas

Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

c 2007 CIWEM. 271
Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan G. Zhai et al.

Table 4 Marginal substitute ratios among the attributes in Model 2

Fatality (/10 000 Environment Expense
Probability (100%) Depth (cm) persons) (100%) (MWTP) (yen)
Probability (100%) 1  155 21.14 1.022  4227
Depth (cm)  0.00645 1 0.136 0.0066  27
Fatality (/10000) 0.04731 7.33 1  0.0484 200
Environment (100%) 0.97849 151.67  20.68 1 4136
Expense (yen)  0.00024  0.037 0.005 0.0002 1
Statistically insignificant at the 0.1 level.
MWTP, marginal willingness to pay.

Table 5 Implicit prices (MWTPs) and 95% confidence intervals for each model by Monte-Carlo simulation with 1000 iterations (yen)
Model 1 Model 2
Probability (100%)  4637 (  8044 to  1948)  4227 (  7366 to  1621)
Depth (cm)  29 (  48 to  11)  27 (  49 to  9)
Fatality (/10 000)  45 (  2624 to 2549) 200 (  2936 to 2324)
Environment (100%) 4140 (1387 to 7098) 4136 (1458 to 7157)
Statistically insignificant at the 0.1 level.
MWTP, marginal willingness to pay.

are first occupied and developed by people. After contin-
uous urbanization and economic growth, the back
marshes are eventually developed. In this survey, the area
500 m–1 km from the river included the back marsh and
was developed during the rapid period of economic
growth in the 1970s. Owing to its low altitude and its
vulnerability to floods, it is reasonable for residents in this
area to make a greater demand for flood management
measures than residents in the other areas.
Implicit relationships between attributes from
model results
Table 4 shows the matrix of the marginal substitute rates
obtained from the results for Model 2 shown in Table 3.
The variable Fatality, which had little impact on the
decision making (i.e. a high P-value), is marked with an
asterisk. For Model 2, to maintain the same utility if other
conditions do not change, a 10% improvement in the
river Environment should be proportional to a 9.8%
increase in the flood occurrence probability, to a
15.167 cm increase in the inundation depth, or to
413.6 yen/capita of additional expense. The last column
in Table 4 lists presents estimates of the (MWTP) for each
attribute.
Table 5 lists the implicit prices and 95% confidence
intervals for Models 1 and 2, as obtained by Monte-Carlo
simulation with 1000 iterations. The interval estimates
show nearly the same values for each attribute, except for
Fatality, for both models. The similar results for MWTP
imply that the choice experiment approach produced
stable estimates that were nearly free of the socio-eco-
Table 6 Significant probability for likelihood ratio tests between regions
and models
Between Kita ward of
regions Toki city Nagoya city
Between Models 1 and 2 0.0001 0.1086
Model 1 (attributes and constants) 0.03373
Model 2 (full model) 0.04449
nomic factors but were affected by the ASCs. The fact that
the confidence intervals for the attribute Fatality crossed
zero and had very small means in contrast to the devia-
tions also implied that the MWTP for Fatality might have
been zero. Therefore, for Model 2, the MWTPs were
422.7 yen/year/person for a 10% decrease in the flood
occurrence probability, 270 yen/year/person for a 10 cm
reduction in the inundation depth and 422.7 yen/year/
person for a 10% improvement in the river environment.
Result differences between regions
The fact that the variable Region in the model proved
insignificant according to the pooled (total) data implied
that Region statistically had no significant impact on the
utility functions of Kita ward and Toki city. This does not
necessarily mean, however, that the analysis results
would have been the same in each region had the authors
used regionally separated data. First, the discussion with
the likelihood ratio test concerns the involvement of the
various socio-economic variables in the model and the
results evaluated for different regions. Four cases were
examined by w2tests, and the results are listed in Table 6.

272 Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

c 2007 CIWEM.
G. Zhai et al.
Table 7 Coefficients and t-values of the attribute variables in the four models
Kita ward of Nagoya city
Model 1 (attributes
and constants)
Probability  1.2753 (  3.121)
Depth  0.0061 (  2.255)
Fatality 0.4085 (0.992)
Environment 0.4814 (1.139)
Expense  0.00025 (  6.471)
t-value in parentheses.
Statistically insignificant at the 0.05 level.
Table 8 Regional differences in MWTP (yen) for Models 1 and 2
Model 1 (attributes
and constants)
Probability (100%)  1197
Depth (cm) 7.7
Fatality (/10 000) 4284
Environment (100%)  4560
MWTP, marginal willingness to pay.
The likelihood ratio tests on the model differences in
the two regions showed that both models were significant
at the 0.05 level. The tests on the differences in the two
models, however, showed that the socio-economic factors
were statistically significant in affecting the decision
making in Toki city (o0.0001), but not in Kita ward
(0.1086), at the 0.05 level. The difference between two
cities may be a function of variance difference in natural,
social and economic factors. For example, approximately
70% of Toki city is a hilly area while all of Kita ward of
Nagoya city is located in the alluvial area. In 2004, Toki
city had 64 000 residents, only 45% of 142 thousand
residents in Kita ward of Nagoya city.
In addition, the difference was examined in terms of
the coefficients of the attribute variables in the four
models, as listed in Table 7. At the least, three things can
be observed from the table. First, there were considerable
differences not only in the coefficients but also in the t-
values of two variables, Probability and Environment,
with respect to Region. In the Toki city model, Environ-
ment was significant but Probability was not, while the
opposite was true for Kita ward. Second, Fatality was not
statistically significant in any of the four models, which
was consistent with the analysis results described above.
Third, the coefficients for Depth and Expense were nearly
the same in all four models.
Finally, the degree of regional difference can be ex-
plained in terms of MWTP instead of the marginal sub-
stitute rate because of the complexities of the matrices of
the marginal substitute rates. Table 8 shows slight differ-
Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan
Toki city
Model 1 (attributes
Model 2 (full model) and constants) Model 2 (full model)
 1.15527 (  2.781)  0.71314 (  1.809)  0.65392 (  1.625)
 0.00631 (  2.286)  0.00626 (  2.395)  0.00639 (  2.404)
0.54369 (1.258)  0.40976 (  1.058)  0.42590 (  1.063)
0.58882 (1.353) 1.25911 (3.112) 1.35282 (3.227)
 0.00026 (  6.476)  0.00019 (  5.368)  0.00020 (  5.444)
ences in the MWTPs between Toki city and Kita ward for
Model 2 (full both models. In the case of Model 2, as compared with
model) those of Toki city, the MWTPs for Kita ward were
 1381 138.1 yen/year/person more for a 10% decrease in the
8.3 flood occurrence probability, 83 yen/year/person less for a
3833 10 cm reduction in the flood inundation depth,
 4738 383.3 yen/year/person less for a fatality reduction of 1/
100 000, and 473.8 yen/year/person less for a 10% im-
provement in the river environment. Therefore, it seems
that Nagoya city’s Kita ward pays more attention to
disastrous flood occurrences, while Toki city focuses more
on environmental protection and fatality reduction
measures.
Concluding remarks: policy implications
The multi-attribute analyses of flood prevention measures
described above yielded some interesting and important
implications regarding future flood management policy.
(1) The statistically significant interrelationships between
the attributes of flood management measures including
external flood reduction, internal flood reduction, early
warning systems and environmental protection imply the
necessity to shift from traditional flood management
(focusing on structural measures) to integrated watershed
management in Japanese urban catchments. Flood man-
agement policy, up to now, has primarily focused on
structural measures like dams, levees and other structural
facilities. The emphasis should shift to watershed manage-
ment, like urban drainage system and land-use control,
and river environment protection. The marginal WTP
for each attribute’s flood management measure may be
used as one of the most important quantitative indicators
when allocating social resources for flood management
measures.
(2) Regional differences between Kita ward of Nagoya
city and Toki city highlight the need to shift from a
nationally unified flood management scheme to loca-
lized flood risk management based on regional-specific
conditions. Localized flood risk management involves a
c 2007 CIWEM. 273
Multi-attribute evaluation of flood management in Japan
flood risk reduction policy that constantly evolves in
response to changes in local, regional and national condi-
tions. The process includes reviewing a flood manage-
ment project (policy) at a particular point in time using
monitoring-programme results, and then making adjust-
ments that are likely to improve the project’s overall
success. This process can be repeated as many times as
necessary to ensure that the policy meets all its objectives.
A flood management policy should be developed that
meets the public needs and regional requirements. Loca-
lized flood risk management is applicable at both regional
and national levels.
(3) Public understanding and providing adequate infor-
mation of flood risk should be improved. However,
statistical insignificance of the variable fatality in the
models does not necessarily mean that the fatality due
to flood need not be considered in the flood management
policy. There is considerable public demand for informa-
tion on (including evacuation system) and understanding
of flood risk. Programme option may include the dissemi-
nation of flood hazard mapping or participatory work-
shops on flood risks.
(4) The multi-attribute analyses of flood prevention mea-
sures yielded some interesting results and implications for
flood risk management from our random-utility-based
choice experiment with a mail survey conducted in the
Toki–Shonai River region of Central Japan. This multi-
attribute evaluation, using a choice experiment approach,
provided a more comprehensive analysis than contingent
valuation methods, and this may enable decision makers
and stakeholders to review preferences for flood manage-
ment measures.
Acknowledgements
This research is part of a project for Research on Social
Systems Resilient to Natural Disasters, conducted by the
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster
Prevention (NIED), Japan. The authors thank the three
anonymous referees for their valuable comments and
suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those
of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or
policies of the NIED or the project team. Any errors are
the sole responsibility of the authors.
References
Adamowicz, W., Louviere, J. and Williams, M. (1994) Com-
bining Revealed and Stated Preference Methods for Valuing
Environmental Amenities. J. Environ. Econ. Manag., 26,
271–292.
274 Water and Environment Journal 21 (2007) 265–274

G. Zhai et al.
Arrow, K.J., Solow, P.R., Portney, E.E., Leamer, R., Radner, R.
and Schuman, H. (1993) Report of the NOAA panel on
contingent valuation. Federal Register, 58, 4601, 15 January.
Bateman, I., Carson, R.T., Day, B., Hanemann, M., Hanley, N.,
Hett, T., Jones-Lee, M., Loomes, G., Mourato, S., Özde-
miroglu, E., Pearce, D.W., Sugden, R. and Swanson, J.
(2002) Economic Valuation with Stated Preference Techni-
ques: A Manual. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Chelten-
ham, UK.
Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan. (2001) Public poll
on water [online]. http://www8.cao.go.jp/survey/h13/h13-
mizu/index.html [accessed 18 May 2006].
Datascape & Communications Inc. (2004) Kurofune 2004 for
Windows. Datascape & Communications Inc, Tokyo.
Desvousgaes, W.H., Johnson, F.R. and Banzhaf, H.S. (1998)
Environmental Policy Analysis with Limited Information.
Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cheltenham, UK.
Greene, W.H. (2002) LIMDEP Version 80. Reference Guide.
Econometric Software Inc, New York, NY.
Greene, W.H. (2003) Econometric Analysis. Prentice-Hall Inter-
national Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Hidano, N. and Kato, T. (2000) A comparison of tax and
donation formats in contingent valuation surveys: The case
of Japan. Discussion Paper No.00-1 [online]. http://
www.soc.titech.ac.jp/library/discuss/text/dp00-1.pdf
[accessed 19 May 2006] (in Japanese with English
abstract).
Louviere, J. (1988a) Analyzing Individual Decision Making: Metric
Conjoint Analysis. Sage University Papers Series No. 67. Sage
Publications Inc., Newbury Park, CA.
Louviere, J. (1988b) Conjoint Analysis Modeling of Stated
Preferences: A Review of Theory, Methods, Recent Devel-
opments and External Validity. J. Transp. Econ. Policy, 10,
93–119.
Louviere, J. (1992) Experimental Choice Analysis:
Introduction and Overview. J. Bus. Res., 24, 89–96.
Louviere, J. and Woodworth, G. (1983) Design and Analysis of
Simulated Consumer Choice or Allocation Experiments: An
Approach Based on Aggregate Data. J. Marketing Res., 20,
350–367.
Manski, C. (1977) The Structure of Random Utility Models.
Theory Decision, 8, 229–254.
McFadden, D. (1974) Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative
Choice Behaviour. In Zarembka, P. (ed). Frontiers in
Econometrics. Academic Press, New York, 105–142.
SPSS Inc. (1999) SPSS 10.0J for Windows. SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL
(in Japanese).
Thurstone, L. (1927) A Law of Comparative Judgement.
Psychol. Rev., 4, 273–286.
Zhai, G., Fukuzono, T. and Ikeda, S. (2005) Modeling Flood
Damage: Case of Tokai Flood 2000. J. Am. Water Resour.
Assoc., 41 (2), 77–92.
Zhai, G., Fukuzono, T. and Ikeda, S. (2006) An Empirical
Model of Fatalities and Injuries from Due to Floods in Japan.
J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 42 (4), 863–875.
c 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation

c 2007 CIWEM.