APAC Economy Update

APAC Economic Snapshots
Economic Research
APAC Monthly Snapshots: Asian

Manufacturing Recovery Not Imminent
April 2019
Key Takeaways
PRIMARY CONTACTS

Shaun Roache
+65 6597 6137
shaun.roache@spglobal.com

Vincent Conti
+65 6216 1188
 vincent.conti@spglobal.com
Vishrut Rana
+65 6216 1008

vishrut.rana@spglobal.com

RESEARCH
CONTRIBUTORS
Praveen Gopinathan
+91 22 40472391
praveen.gopinathan@spglobal.com
Lavanya Kaushal
+91 22 40472783
lavanya.kaushal@spglobal.com
Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Latest Change

China (NBS) 49.4 49.5 49.2 50.5 1.3
China (Caixin) 49.7 48.3 49.9 50.8 0.9
Hong Kong 48.0 48.2 48.4 48.0 -0.4
India 53.2 53.9 54.3 52.6 -1.7
Indonesia 51.2 49.9 50.1 51.2 1.1
Malaysia 46.8 47.9 47.6 47.2 -0.4
Philippines 53.2 52.3 51.9 51.5 -0.4
Singapore (Nikkei) 52.7 50.1 49.8 51.8 2
Singapore (SPMI) 51.1 50.7 50.4 50.8 0.4
Korea 49.8 48.3 47.2 48.8 1.6
Taiwan 47.7 47.5 46.3 49.0 2.7
Thailand 50.3 50.2 49.9 50.3 0.4
Vietnam 53.8 51.9 51.2 51.9 0.7
> 1 std dev 0 to 1 std 0 to 1 std dev > 1 std dev

LEGEND
above avg dev above avg below avg below avg
Source: Bloomberg, S&P Global Economics.
NIE s ASE AN
70
60
50
40
(3m/3m SAAR)
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
Feb-16 Aug -16 Feb-17 Aug -17 Feb-18 Aug -18 Feb-19
Source: CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

Note: NIEs = Korea, Singapore, Taiwan; ASEAN = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand.
Growth rates are aggregated using GDP at PPP weights.
spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 2

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
TW TH MY VN KO SG PH ID
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, S&P Global Economics.
IP 3 m/3m saa r PMI (RHS)

14 57
12 56
10 55
8 54
6 53
4 52
2 51
0 50
-2 49
-4 48
-6 47
Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

Note: NIEs = Korea, Singapore, Taiwan. Aggregated using GDP at PPP weights.
1 We see it much more fit to compare high frequency changes in PMIs to sequential changes in seasonally adjusted industrial production, rather than comparing levels
to y/y, respectively. PMIs are constructed based on purchasing managers’ responses to questions on whether trends improved, did not change, or deteriorated over the
past month. On a more technical note, many PMI series (and y/y changes in macroeconomic series) are nonstationary, and so extra care needs to be taken in
interpreting correlations involving these.
2 These were done using pairwise Granger Causality tests, particularly focusing on whether changes in an economy’s PMI Granger-cause m/m sa for IP. None of the
p-values for these tests were even close to rejecting no Granger causality with a 10% level of significance.

Kor ea Taiwan
100
80
60
40
(3m/3m SAAR)
20
(20)
(40)
(60)
Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19
3 After Two Years Of Strong Growth, Semiconductor Sales Will Slump In 2019; on RatingsDirect on February 26, 2019
4 U.S. GDP Growth Hits A Soft Patch – Not Quicksand, on RatingsDirect, April 4, 2019; and European Economic Snapshots: Domestic Demand Still A Safety Net, on
RatingsDirect, April 12, 2019.

US EU
50
40
30
(3m/3m SAAR)
20
10
(10)
(20)
Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19

Australia
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Phillips Curve Remains Relatively Flat
1990-2009 2010 till date Linear (1990-2009) Linear (2010 till date)
9.5

8.5
7.5
6.5
Inflation (y/y, %)
5.5 
4.5
y = -0.2955x + 4.9413
R² = 0.1136
3.5

2.5
1.5
y = -0.7406x + 6.2621
R² = 0.1715
.
0.5
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
Unemployment rate (%, Level)
New Home Sales Picked Up In February
New Home Sales
6.0 
5.7
(sa, thousand units)
5.4

5.1
4.8
4.5
Feb-17 Aug -17 Feb-18 Aug -18 Feb-19
Source: CEIC.

Australia Economic Data And Forecast Summary

Selected Economic Indicators
Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19
5.5 15.2 5.5 13.8 17.4 10.4 5.0 3.8
(6.3) 24.1 (2.9) 10.8 9.3 2.3 3.7 5.8
7.0 9.6 (12.9) 10.5 9.2 (7.6) (3.5) (6.9)
(14.3) (4.9) (17.0) 2.0 (3.2) 21.0 (3.7) (0.8)
3.2 3.1 3.2 1.2 1.3 6.1 2.4 3.9
5.2 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5
4.4 2.6 2.8 3.8 3.3 2.1 3.3 3.2
5.5 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0
Source: CEIC.
Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
3.0 2.6 2.0
3.7 1.8 1.3
3.1 2.6 2.1
(4.6) (4.3) (7.3) (12.0) (12.2) (7.2) (8.1) (9.6) (5.6)
1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8
6.1 6.2 6.5
Source: CEIC.
S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

2.6 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7
2.5 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1
6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1
2.50 2.11 1.73 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
2.50 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
0.90 0.75 0.74 0.77 0.75 0.71 0.73 0.73
Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.

China
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
GDP Growth Steady In Q1
GDP Manufacturing Services

8
(% , y/y )
7 

5
Source: CEIC.
Financial Conditions Remain Supportive In March
z-score
1.0
0.8
0.6 
(Positive=Looser)
0.4
0.2
0.0

(0.2)
(0.4)
(0.6)
(0.8)
(1.0)
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

China Economic Data And Forecast Summary

2.1 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 2.3
2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8
(3.6) 10.2 14.4 15.0 4.6 (4.6) 8.5 (21.2) 14.1
14.3 13.8 14.9 20.9 3.1 (7.3) (1.0) (4.9) (7.3)
(5.0) 41.5 31.7 34.9 44.7 57.1 39.2 4.1 32.6
6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.7 8.5
10.1 9.0 9.2 8.6 8.1 8.2 8.7
Source: CEIC.

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
6.5 6.4 6.4
3.4 3.5 2.7
5.9 5.8 6.1
7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.0
21.4 56.6 45.9 71.2 (34.1) 5.3 23.3 54.6
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7
2.0 1.4 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2
4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9
5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
6.16 6.28 6.64 6.76 6.61 6.79 6.76 6.70 6.69
6.15 6.39 6.83 6.61 6.91 6.83 6.72 6.69 6.68

Hong Kong
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Jobs Were Lost In 2019
Source: CEIC.
Trade Deficit Widened In February
Trade Bala nce (RHS) Domestic E xp orts 

Re-exports Imp orts
30 4
15 2

0 0
(USD billion)
(%, y/y)
(15) (2)

(30) (4)
(45) (6)
(60) (8)
Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19
Source: CEIC.

Hong Kong Economic Data And Forecast Summary

Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
3.1 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1
3.1 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.6
0.9 15.0 12.7 4.2 14.1 (1.1) (5.8) (0.7) (7.2)
(4.0) 15.6 16.0 4.5 12.6 0.2 (7.1) (6.3) (4.1)
(5.5) (5.5) (6.6) (6.1) (5.7) (5.7) (6.6) (1.3) (6.2)
5.3 5.0 5.9 4.7 5.9 6.0 6.6 6.8 5.6
30.0 12.8 9.4 2.5 6.0 1.4 0.1 7.0 (10.2)
Source: CEIC.

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
3.5 2.8 1.3
6.0 4.8 3.1
2.1 9.2 (5.4)
(15.1) (14.3) (15.2) (14.1) (18.4) (16.6) (18.4) (18.7) (18.0)
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
2.8 2.4 2.2 3.8 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.6
4.5 3.0 2.4 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2
3.3 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9
7.75 7.75 7.76 7.79 7.84 7.83 7.81 7.80
7.76 7.75 7.76 7.81 7.83 7.82 7.80 7.80

India
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Business Conditions Improved At A Softer Pace
Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Nikkei Services PMI


56
54

(PMI Levels)
52
50
48

46
44
Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19
Source: Bloomberg.
Core Inflation Ease Further; RBI Cut Rate
Core Inflation Policy Rate (RHS)

7.0 7.0

6.0 6.0
(%, pa)
(%,y/y)
5.0 5.0 
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19

India Economic Data And Forecast Summary

4.3 4.9 3.7 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.9
2.7 5.7 5.2 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 3.2
0.1 17.9 (2.7) 16.6 (0.4) 0.4 3.7 2.4 11.0
7.2 20.9 12.7 19.2 5.6 0.6 1.0 (4.2) 1.4
(13.5) (17.7) (15.0) (18.0) (17.5) (14.4) (14.7) (9.6) (10.9)
5.3 7.0 4.6 8.4 0.2 2.6 1.4 0.1
5.7 6.9 4.8 8.2 (0.7) 3.0 1.0 (0.3)
Source: CEIC.
2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
8.0 7.0 6.6
6.9 9.8 8.4
6.5 10.8 6.5
6.6 5.5 3.9 9.3 12.2 11.8 11.7 10.2 10.6
(8.0) (2.6) (15.0) (6.9) (13.7) (13.0) (15.9) (19.1) (16.9)
Source: CEIC.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
7.5 8.1 7.1 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.7
5.9 4.9 4.5 3.6 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6
7.93 7.04 6.38 6.08 6.29 6.0
69.77 70.24 71.81 73.76
69.90 70.95 72.72 74.54

Source: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values. Data for all years is for fiscal years. For instance, 2017 means April 2017-
March 2018.

Indonesia
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Domestic Activity Low From Weak Demand
Industrial Production Retail Sales

12

8
4

(% , y/y)
(4)
(8)
Source: CEIC.
Headline Inflation Remain Controlled In March
Headline CPI CPI: Core 7-Days Reverse Repo Rate (RHS)

6 7
5 6 
(% , p.a.)
(% , y/y)

4 5
3 4

2 3
Source: CEIC.

Indonesia Economic Data And Forecast Summary

3.4 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5
2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0
5.9 11.3 2.4 4.2 (2.8) (3.6) (4.3) (11.2) (10.0)
(11.8) 31.7 (11.6) 3.3 5.8 16.7 (6.7) (20.2) (18.3)
8.9 12.8 14.2 24.0 11.8 1.7 (2.1) (13.8) (6.8)
1,123 1,706 314.0 (1,773) (1,996) (1,032) (1,064) 329.9 540.2
2.1 (7.1) 3.1 8.7 6.2 6.5 (0.7) (4.0)
2.5 2.3 4.8 2.9 3.4 7.7 7.2 9.1 8.0
Source: CEIC.

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
5.2 5.2
5.0 5.1
7.0 6.0
(2.0) (4.4) (4.2) (5.6) (5.3) (7.9) (8.6) (9.1)
4,116 3,550 3,192 985.0 314.4 (1,372) (2,637) (4,801) (193.0)
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.5
6.4 6.4 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.4
5.8 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.6
6.28 6.28 5.34 4.59 5.00 6.00 5.75 5.00 5.00
6.37 6.25 4.81 4.25 5.88 6.00 5.25 5.00 5.00
11,850 13,394 13,304 13,379 14,231 14,275 14,533 14,251
12,252 13,769 13,259 13,534 14,780 14,400 14,437 14,166
Sources: Oxford Economics; f: S&P Global Ratings forecast; End of Period - Q4 values.

Japan
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Tankan Large Manufacturers' Conditions Weakened

Large Manufacturers
25
20

15
10
0
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19
Source: CEIC.
Average Cash Earnings Fall; CPI Edged Up
Headline Inflation Average Monthly Cash Earnings

Core Inflation (Excl. Fresh Food)
4

3
2
(% , y/y)

1

0
(1)
Source: CEIC.

Japan Economic Data And Forecast Summary

1.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5
0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9
8.7 7.6 (2.5) 8.4 (0.4) (3.2) (6.8) (3.4) (6.9)
18.0 11.9 (2.9) 9.2 (0.1) (6.4) (15.9) 3.2 (13.5)
6.0 3.2 5.8 20.2 12.0 2.5 0.9 (8.7) (3.5)
7,395 6,612 1,107 (4,048) (6,521) (496.8) (13,011) 3,032 4,755
2.5 (1.5) (2.5) 4.2 1.9 (2.0) 0.7 (1.1)
1.0 1.7 2.3 3.7 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.6
30.0 11.0 16.4 11.7 7.2 4.1 5.5 24.2
(0.2) (1.2) (0.5) 1.0 0.3 1.9 2.1 1.9
Source: CEIC.

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
1.9 (2.4) 1.9
2.6 (0.9) 1.6
0.6 0.9 3.0
2.0 4.8 6.0 1.3 0.2 1.1 5.1 (8.3) 6.6
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
0.3 1.3 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.4 1.1
2.8 0.8 (0.1) 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.9 0.9
3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7
0.07 0.07 (0.03) (0.05) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.02) 0.00
0.06 0.08 (0.04) (0.04) (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) 0.00 0.00
105.9 121.0 108.8 112.1 110.4 109.5 106.8 104.8
114.6 121.4 109.5 112.9 112.8 108.0 106.0 104.0

Malaysia
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
IP And Retail Sales Growth Eased In February
Industrial production Retail Sales

16 
12

(% , y/y)

4
0
Source: CEIC.
Home Price Growth Moderated In September
8
Pro perty Sale s: Numbe r Pro perty Price In dex: 2010 =100 (RHS)
12

4 10
0 8 
(%, y/y)
(%, y/y)
(4) 6
(8) 4

(12) 2
(16) 0
Sep -16 Mar-17 Sep -17 Mar-18 Sep -18
Source: CEIC.

Malaysia Economic Data And Forecast Summary

Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
1.4 1.8 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 (0.7) (0.4)
11.0 13.0 4.4 8.3 19.7 1.3 2.8 (1.0) (9.2)
19.6 31.9 6.7 13.3 35.5 27.5 (5.5) (4.6) (21.9)
10.4 10.6 16.4 (1.1) 13.3 4.4 (1.2) (3.0) (13.1)
2.3 2.1 0.4 3.7 3.9 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.7
2.5 3.4 2.1 2.4 4.0 2.1 3.4 3.2 1.7
(3.6) 1.4 (5.3) (5.7) 0.4 (2.8) 1.0 (0.9) (5.0)
3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3
Source: CEIC.

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
4.5 4.4 4.7
8.0 9.0 8.5
2.2 3.2 0.3
9.1 10.1 13.5 12.2 10.4 9.2 9.8 12.9 12.1
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
6.0 5.1 4.2 5.9 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.5
3.1 2.1 2.1 3.8 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.8
2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.12 3.25 3.13 3.00 3.23 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3.25 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3.27 3.91 4.15 4.30 4.04 4.09 4.10 4.09
3.36 4.29 4.32 4.16 4.17 4.10 4.10 4.06

Philippines
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Headline Inflation Eased To 15-Month Low In March
CPI Core CPI Food

10 
6
(%, y/y)

4

2
0
Mar-17 Sep -17 Mar-18 Sep -18 Mar-19
Source: CEIC.
Trade Deficit Narrowed In February
Trade Balance (RHS) Exports 

Imports Exports: Electronic Products
60 6
40 4

(USD billion)
20 2
(% , y/y )
0 0
(20) (2) 
(40) (4)
(60) (6)
Source: CEIC.

Philippines Economic Data And Forecast Summary

4.3 5.2 6.7 6.7 6.0 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.3
3.4 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.4 3.9 3.5
0.4 3.7 1.1 6.7 1.0 (12.2) (6.7) (0.9)
8.4 14.9 5.6 2.4 0.9 (13.6) (1.7) 0.8
3.2 29.9 30.2 26.2 9.6 (4.9) 3.6 2.6
(2.3) (3.6) (4.0) (4.4) (4.1) (4.2) (3.9) (2.8)
2.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.3
10.8 11.2 3.4 3.8 2.0 (8.4) 0.7 (5.5)
Source: CEIC.

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
6.2 6.0 6.3
6.0 5.3 5.3
20.0 19.6 4.9
(565.6) (867.5) (242.1) 1,437 (2,471) (334.8) (3,507) (1,637) (2,400)
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.7
3.6 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.2 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.8
6.8 6.3 5.5 5.7 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.8
3.68 4.00 3.42 3.00 3.64 4.50 4.25 3.88 3.50
4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 4.62 4.25 4.25 3.50 3.50
44.4 45.5 47.5 50.4 52.7 53.0 53.4 52.4
44.8 46.9 49.1 50.9 53.2 53.5 53.0 52.1

Singapore
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Q1 GDP Growth Weighed Down By Manufacturing
GDP Manufacturing Construction Services 

20
15
10 
5
(% , y/y)
(5) 
(10)
(15)
Q1.16 Q3.16 Q1.17 Q3.17 Q1.18 Q3.18 Q1.19
Source: CEIC.
NODX Fell Sharply In March
NODX (%, y/y) NODX (3m/3m saar)
45 
30
15
0 
(15)
(30)
(45)

(60)
(75)
Source: CEIC. Bloomberg.

Singapore Economic Data And Forecast Summary

0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.5
5.8 10.8 9.6 16.4 4.6 (4.2) (1.7) (0.2) (5.8)
3.5 3.5 6.4 6.5 (4.2) (10.1) (12.4) 2.2 (14.3)
6.2 15.7 14.1 18.1 7.3 4.3 5.2 1.7 (1.5)
4.5 3.4 3.2 3.3 2.6 0.7 2.2 2.8 2.9
6.7 8.2 0.5 5.2 6.8 1.8 (0.4) 0.7
(1.0) 1.7 1.7 0.3 (2.0) (5.9) 7.7 (10.0)
Source: CEIC.

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
2.4 1.9 1.3
2.7 1.1
2.3 0.7
4.8 3.7 5.3 7.5 (1.8) (2.0) (7.0) (3.1)
13.5 13.4 15.1 11.9 15.0 17.9 18.1 12.9
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
4.1 2.5 2.8 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6
1.0 (0.5) (0.5) 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4
2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
1.27 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.33
1.29 1.41 1.41 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.34 1.32

South Korea
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
IP And Export Momentum Dipped Further
Exports Industr ial P roduction 

Nikkei Manufactu ring PMI (RHS)
60 52
40
50 
(PMI, Level)
(3m/3m saar)
20
48
0

46
(20)
(40) 44
Source: CEIC.
Headline And Core Inflation Eased In March
CPI (% , y/y) Core CPI (%, y/y)

3.0
2.5 
2.0
(%, y/y)
1.5

1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: CEIC.

South Korea Economic Data And Forecast Summary

1.2 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4
1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.9
5.5 (0.4) (8.1) 22.5 3.6 (1.7) (6.2) (11.4) (8.2)
28.8 23.2 14.8 15.3 (5.3) (21.0) (24.0) (25.6) (21.5)
5.4 11.0 (1.6) 28.1 11.4 1.1 (1.7) (12.6) (6.7)
6.4 6.1 9.6 6.4 4.7 4.2 1.1 3.0 5.2
(0.5) 1.0 (4.5) 7.6 0.2 0.4 0.8 (1.4)
8.0 5.6 3.0 7.5 2.9 3.6 3.7 (3.0)
Source: CEIC.

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
2.8 2.0 3.1
2.8 2.5 2.5
(1.3) (6.6) (3.8)
22.7 16.0 14.5 25.9 18.9 11.7 17.2 28.1 19.4
21.8 15.6 29.2 30.2 20.1 12.6 18.5 23.3 15.2
6.4 6.4 6.4
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
3.3 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8
1.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.0
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.1 2.8
2.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0
2.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0
1052.8 1131.0 1160.8 1131.0 1100.2 1129.1 1132.4 1115.1
1086.6 1157.5 1156.4 1107.5 1127.4 1132.5 1131.5 1110.8

Taiwan
State of Play
Outlook
Risks
Activity And IP Momentum Remained Weak
Manufacturing PMI IP Momentum (RHS) 

58 30
54 15

(sa,m/m 3mma)
(Level)
50 0
46 (15)
42 (30)
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg.
Export Growth Still Weak; Imports Up
Trade Balance (RHS) Exports Imports
48 8 
36 6

(USD billion)
24 4
(% , y/y)
12 2
0 0 
(12) (2)
(24) (4)
Source: CEIC.

Taiwan Economic Data And Forecast Summary

1.6 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.3 (0.1) 0.2 0.2 0.6
1.6 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5
16.7 9.4 2.6 7.3 (3.5) (3.2) (0.3) (8.8) (4.4)
17.6 2.3 (0.0) 2.8 (4.4) (3.5) 5.1 (5.0) (4.3)
10.4 15.2 13.7 17.4 0.9 2.2 6.8 (19.8) 6.6
6.0 5.2 4.4 3.4 4.7 4.7 0.9 4.9 3.1
5.9 0.0 1.7 8.8 2.6 (1.1) (1.1) (1.8)
5.0 5.7 4.9 4.7 5.2 5.2 6.1 5.5
5.2 4.9 3.0 0.9 0.6 2.1 8.2 (9.1)
Source: CEIC.
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
2.4 1.8
1.7 1.7
5.5 2.3
18.2 17.3 21.7 25.6 19.7 16.4 13.6 18.6
10.8 12.1 17.8 17.3 11.8 13.8 11.3 12.7 9.0
Source: CEIC.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
4.0 0.8 1.5 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2
1.2 (0.3) 1.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3
4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0
1.875 1.837 1.466 1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375
1.875 1.731 1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375
30.4 31.9 32.3 30.4 30.2 30.9 30.9 30.7
30.9 32.8 31.8 30.1 30.9 31.0 30.8 30.6

Thailand
State Of Play
Outlook
Risks
Private Demand Momentum Up; Retail Down
Retail Sales Private Consumption
40.0
30.0

(3m/3m saar)
20.0

10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Source: CEIC.
Business Conditions Rise With Sentiment

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) BSI Production Index
Nikkei PMI 
57
56
55 
54
53
(Levels)
52 
51
50
49
48
47
Source: Bank of Thailand, Bloomberg.

Thailand Economic Data And Forecast Summary

0.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.2
0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
7.9 8.4 (5.2) 8.7 (0.9) (1.7) (5.6) 5.9 (4.9)
(9.8) 4.6 0.1 11.2 (11.3) (9.3) (2.0) (5.6)
10.2 10.2 9.9 11.2 14.7 (8.1) 14.0 (10.0) (7.6)
17.1 54.3 50.5 21.1 75.3 12.3 4.8 17.8
1,500 1,728 487.0 (279.5) (1,178) 1,065 (4,032) 4,034 1,999
3.2 5.0 (2.7) 5.8 0.9 0.8
3.8 7.3 10.1 20.0 13.1 10.4 11.8
79.9 81.3 82.3 81.3 80.5 79.4 80.7 82.0 80.6
Source: CEIC.

2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
4.7 3.2 3.7
4.1 5.2 5.3
2.3 1.9 1.4
2.2 2.2 1.5 2.0 1.5 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2
10.7 15.2 7.8 14.9 12.4 15.9 7.6 4.5 7.1
Source: CEIC.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
1.0 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5
1.9 (0.9) 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5
0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1
2.05 1.63 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.53 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
32.5 34.2 35.3 33.9 32.3 31.3 30.5 30.4
32.7 35.8 35.4 32.9 32.8 30.8 30.4 30.4

Vietnam
State of Play
Outlook
Risks
Q1 GDP Growth At Five-Quarter Low
GDP Growth Agriculture Industry Service

12
10

8
(% y/y)
6

4
(2)
Q1.16 Q3.16 Q1.17 Q3.17 Q1.18 Q3.18 Q1.19
Source: CEIC.
Trade Flows Recovered In March
Trade Balance (RHS) Exports

Phones & Spare Parts Imports
Computer & Electronic Parts
100 7.5
80 6.0

60 4.5
(USD billion)
40 3.0

(% y/y)
20 1.5
0 0.0
(20) (1.5)
(40) (3.0)
Source: CEIC.

Vietnam Economic Data And Forecast Summary

2.7 4.7 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.7
1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8
23.0 11.6 9.5 10.8 8.5 (0.4) 8.9 (3.3) 7.2
1.1 18.6 9.6 11.9 (3.5) 4.1 (0.2) 3.1 25.4
2.5 6.1 6.4 19.4 10.7 1.6 5.4 4.6 11.3
626.4 769.6 152.9 (811.0) 815.5 (768.2)
8.9 12.3 9.1 7.7 9.7 11.4 8.1 10.1 9.1
14.1 13.8 13.1 12.4 11.6 10.7
9.9 10.7 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.2 12.2 12.0
Source: CEIC.
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
7.0 7.1 6.8
3,175 112.0 1,673

Source: CEIC.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.3
4.7 0.9 3.2 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.5
Source: S&P Global Ratings.

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APAC Economic Snapshots

APAC Monthly Snapshots: Asian

Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Latest Change

> 1 std dev 0 to 1 std 0 to 1 std dev > 1 std dev

Source: Bloomberg, S&P Global Economics.

Source: CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 2

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

IP 3 m/3m saa r PMI (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 3

Source: CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 4

Source: CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 5

Phillips Curve Remains Relatively Flat

Source: CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

New Home Sales Picked Up In February

New Home Sales

spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 6

Australia Economic Data And Forecast Summary

(6.3) 24.1 (2.9) 10.8 9.3 2.3 3.7 5.8

7.0 9.6 (12.9) 10.5 9.2 (7.6) (3.5) (6.9)

(14.3) (4.9) (17.0) 2.0 (3.2) 21.0 (3.7) (0.8)

3.2 3.1 3.2 1.2 1.3 6.1 2.4 3.9

5.2 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5

4.4 2.6 2.8 3.8 3.3 2.1 3.3 3.2

5.5 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0

Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments

3.7 1.8 1.3

3.1 2.6 2.1

(4.6) (4.3) (7.3) (12.0) (12.2) (7.2) (8.1) (9.6) (5.6)

1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8

6.1 6.2 6.5

S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

2.5 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1

6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1

2.50 2.11 1.73 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

2.50 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

0.90 0.75 0.74 0.77 0.75 0.71 0.73 0.73

spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 7

GDP Growth Steady In Q1

GDP Manufacturing Services

Financial Conditions Remain Supportive In March

Source: CEIC, S&P Global Economics.

spglobal.com/ratings April 2019 8

China Economic Data And Forecast Summary

2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8

(3.6) 10.2 14.4 15.0 4.6 (4.6) 8.5 (21.2) 14.1

14.3 13.8 14.9 20.9 3.1 (7.3) (1.0) (4.9) (7.3)

(5.0) 41.5 31.7 34.9 44.7 57.1 39.2 4.1 32.6

6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.7 8.5

10.1 9.0 9.2 8.6 8.1 8.2 8.7

Real GDP Components, Fiscal Position, And Balance Of Payments

3.4 3.5 2.7

5.9 5.8 6.1

7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.0

21.4 56.6 45.9 71.2 (34.1) 5.3 23.3 54.6

S&P Global Ratings Economic Outlook

2.0 1.4 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2

4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9

5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35

5.96 4.97 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35