Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Abstract: Many rivers in Nepal are ungauged and there is an urgent need to develop a model for those
ungauged basins in order to properly use the vast natural resources of Nepal. The aim of this study is to
evaluate the performance of the distributed hydrological model, BTOPMC (Block-wise use of TOPMODEL
with Muskingum-Cunge method) for different physiographic zones of Nepal and then to develop a regional
model, which can be used for prediction in ungauged basins. It is advantageous to use BTOPMC for poorly
gauged or ungauged basins as it utilizes various global datasets available in public domain. In this study,
except rainfall and discharge, all the inputs into the model were obtained from global data sets readily
available in public domain. Considering the different features of the basins, seven basins used in this study
were taken as a set of homogeneous basins. BTOPMC model was calibrated and validated for six basins.
The result shows that the model performs reasonably well for most of the basins. Then, a simple regional
model was developed. For evaluating the regional model, parameters of the regional model were applied to
the seventh basin, which was not used for developing the regional model. The result shows that the
parameters derived for the regional model give satisfactory performance. Therefore, BTOPMC model can be
used for prediction in ungauged basins in Nepal. However, the application should be restricted to only the
least impacted basins since the model is still under development for snow, reservoir and irrigation
components.
Discharge (m /s)
Predicted
3
calibration and validation. 1500
for five basins, while it is underestimated for the Figure 4. Validation for Babai
recession period in case of the East Rapti basin.
1400
1200
The possible reasons for the poor performance of Observed
Discharge (m3/s)
the model are: 1000
Predicted
a. Uncertainty in data: There may be some errors 800
in measurement of data, especially in rainfall and 600
discharge data. In addition, there is uncertainty in 400
spatial variability of precipitation due to the sparse 200
network of rain gauge (e.g. 5 rain gauge stations
0
for 5150 km2 for the case of the West Rapti river 25/12/2001 13/07/2002 29/01/2003
basin) for most of the basins. Date
4500
Table 5. Model performance 4000
Observed
Nash-Sutcliffe Volume bias
Discharge (m /s)
3500 Predicted
Efficiency (%) (%)
3
5000 160
Discharge (m3/s)
140 Predicted
120
runoff simulation, Annual Journal of
100 Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, 50, 91-96,
80 2006.
60 Hapuarachchi, H.A.P., Magome, J., Struthers, I.
40
and Takeuchi, K., WinBTOPMC, University
20
0
of Yamanashi, Kofu, Japan, 2004
28/10/1995 12/10/1996 27/09/1997 12/09/1998 (Unpublished).
Date Henriksen, H.J., Troldorg, L., Nyegaard, P.,
Figure 9. Validation of regional model for Sonnenborg, T.O., Refsgaard, J.C. and
Manahari Madsen, B., Methodology for construction,
calibration and validation of a national
hydrological model for Denmark, Journal of
The parameters of the regional model are applied Hydrology, 280, 52-71, 2003.
to the Manahari river basin. Nash-Sutcliffe Parajka, J., Merz, R. and Bloschl, G., A
efficiency for this period was found to be 41% and comparison of regionalization methods for
the bias in runoff volume was found to be 9%. catchment model parameters, Hydrology and
Although NSE in this case is below the good Earth System Sciences, 9(3), 157-171, 2005.
performance indicator set in the research, the VB Shrestha, S., Babel, M.S. Das Gupta, A and
is within the range. Kazama, F., Evaluation of Annualized
Agricultural Non Point Source model for a
The observed and simulated hydrograph for the Watershed in the Siwalik Hills of Nepal,
basin for the year 1996-1997 is shown in Figure 9. Environmental Modelling and Software,
The result shows that the parameters derived for 2005 (in press).
the regional model give satisfactory performance Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S.W., Gupta,
as the simulated hydrograph closely resembles to V.K., Karambiri, K., Lakshmi, V., Lianf, X.,
the observed hydrograph. McDonnell, J.J., Mendiondo, E.M.,
O’Connell, P.E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J.W.,
Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S. and Zehe, E.,
5. CONCLUSIONS IAHS Decade on Prediction in Ungauged
Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an
This study attempted to evaluate the performances exciting future for the hydrological sciences,
of the distributed hydrological model, BTOPMC Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48(6), 857-
for different physiographic zones of Nepal and 880, 2003.
then to develop a regional model. In this study, Takeuchi, K., Ao, T. and Ishidaira, H.,
along with the hydrometerological data, freely Introduction of block-wise use of
available global data sets of topography, soil and TOPMODEL and Muskingum-Cunge
land use were utilized for the model, BTOPMC. method for the hydro-environmental
This feature of the model makes it more beneficial simulation of a large ungauged basin,
to use it for the prediction in ungauged basins. The Hydrological Sciences Journal, 44(4), 633-
result of the study shows that this model is able to 646, 1999.
predict the flow in poorly gauged basins in Nepal.