Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
for development of
GVK skycity
Pre bid advisory for
development of GVK skycity
1 Assignment Background
2 Site Analysis/Catchment Overview
3 Development Guidelines
4 Mumbai Real Estate - Overview
5 Catchment Analysis
6 Demand Forecast
7 Recommendations
2
Assignment
objective
3
Background of the study
Assignment Bharti Realty Limited (hereinafter referred as “Client”), seeks pre-bid advisory for undertaking
Objective commercial development activities at the Airport Sites located in zone 3 and zone 6 as Non-Transfer
Assets. These sites form part of the GVK SkyCity.
On the instructions received from the Client, Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. has been appointed to
conduct the pre-bid advisory study of the aforementioned assets.
4
Site Analysis
5
GVK City
Overview
6
GVK City
Zones
7
Subject Sites
location
8
neighborhood
The catchment area of the Subject Site is an active hospitality corridor marked by the presence of high end hotels
9
North sahar zone
overview
10
North sahar zone
Development norms
11
North Village Zone
overview
12
North sahar zone
Development norms
13
Real estate
overview
14
City Overview
MUMBAI
The total area of Mumbai is 437 sq. km. with the island city spanning
over 67.79 sq. km. and the suburban district across 370 sq. km.,
administered by the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai.
15
Demand Drivers
Key infrastructure initiatives
16
hospitality
17
Hospitality Overview
With its establishment as the financial capital of India, Mumbai has witnessed a continuous inflow of business
travellers, in addition to the leisure travellers. This has led to the growth if the hospitality sector of the city.
The hospitality market of Mumbai can be classified into four major regions namely, the South Mumbai, North
Mumbai, Central Suburbs and Navi Mumbai micro-markets.
Mumbai has one of the major international airports in India which brings high of traffic. The same has a significant
component of transit travellers who stay in Mumbai overnight. This has resulted in significant growth in the number
of tourists.
Mumbai maintained its top position with the highest existing supply of branded rooms in the country in FY 2013,
followed closely by Delhi (excluding Gurgaon, NOIDA and Greater NOIDA) and Bengaluru.
Mumbai emerged as the third best performing hotel market in terms of occupancy (63.8%) in FY 2013 after Kolkata
(69.50%) and Goa (68.80%).
Mumbai (including Navi Mumbai) registered the highest average rate (INR 7,646) and RevPAR (INR 4,881) amongst
the major hospitality markets in the country in FY 2013.
18
Hospitality Overview
Current stock
The cumulative room inventory in Mumbai is currently No. of hotel rooms in Mumbai
12,807 which includes 5 Star Deluxe, 5 Star and 4 Star 14,000 12,807
category hotels in North Mumbai and South Mumbai. 12,052
12,000 11,303
9,877
North Mumbai comprising of micro-markets such as Vile 10,000
8,454
7,948
Parle, Andheri, Juhu, Malad, Santacruz, Bandra etc. 8,000 7,402
contribute approximately 73% in the total existing inventory
6,000
of hotel room keys. 5 Star deluxe category comprises
~6,500 room keys which nearly contributes to 51% of the 4,000
inventory.
19
Hospitality Overview
key performance parameters
Occupancy
Mumbai has the highest average rate (INR 7,646) 100%
and RevPar (INR 4,881) amongst the major 80%
hospitality markets in the country. 60%
81%
73% 70% 72%
76% 78% 75%
65% 68% 65% 65% 63% 61% 63% 62% 64% 64%
The following graphs demonstrate the occupancy 40% 52%
1998-99
2010-11
2003-04
2007-08
2008-09
2000-01
2001-02
2004-05
2006-07
1999-00
2009-10
2011-12
2012-13
2002-03
2005-06
1996-97
1995-96
1997-98
While occupancy has increased marginally over
past 5 years, ARR/ RevPar has witnessed a
decline. This indicates the preference of hoteliers
in terms of opting for higher occupancy at cost of RevPAR
revenue. 12,000 10,932
10,679
` (INR)
5,661 5,555 8,155
6,000 5,137 4,932 4,822 6,807
4,184 4,356 6,473
4,000 4,603
5,268 5,113
4,881
4,161 4,547 4,028 4,257 5,050
3,651 3,589 3,472
2,000 2,653
2,565 3,036
0
2000-01
2001-02
2003-04
2008-09
1996-97
1998-99
2004-05
2006-07
2010-11
2011-12
1999-00
2002-03
2005-06
2012-13
2007-08
2009-10
1997-98
1995-96
20
Proposed stock
The hotels in Mumbai can be divided in the following Proposed Branded Rooms (2012/13 - 2017/18)
three categories: 4%
21
Guest profile
Corporate travellers contribute the most towards all three Group Individual Traveller (GIT) 8 11 9
segments, ranging between 31-36% of the total occupancy.
Meetings, Incentives, Conventions
8 6 6
Domestic tourists comprise ~69% of the total travellers. & Expositions (MICE)
even more one-sided for upscale hotels, with 84% of the Business Guests 2.2 3.4 2.7
travellers arriving by air. Hence, there is a clear preference
for arriving by air. Leisure Guests 1.8 4 2.5
22
Major markets
out all across Mumbai and Navi Mumbai, 11 Holiday Inn Andheri (E) 266 11 The Trident
Nariman
550
Point
hence no particular micro-market has a 12 The Courtyard by Marriot Andheri (E) 299 Cuffe
12 Taj President 272
majority of economy hotels. 13 The Trident BKC 436 Parade
Nariman
14 Meluha The Fern Powai 141 13 The Oberoi 222
Point
The tables on right illustrate the existing 15 Hotel Marine Plaza
Marine
68 14 The Taj Mahal Hotel
Apollo
560
Drive Bunder
room inventory of some of the major hotels
16 Four seasons Worli 202
in Mumbai for the 5 star and 5 star deluxe Marine
17 Inter-Continental 59
categories of hotels. Drive
18 The Resort Malad 94
19 The Retreat Malad 144
23
office
24
Mumbai commercial overview
Alternate Business
BKC, Bandra (E), Santacruz (E), Kalina
District (ABD)
Peripheral Business
Thane, Airoli, Vashi, Ghansoli, Rabale, Belapur
District (PBD)
25
Distribution of Office stock in MMR
26
Annual commercial supply
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
During the last 5 years approximately 57.2 mn sft of commercial space had been added.
It is estimated that ~35.4 mn sft would be added in next 5 years (~ 7.1 mn per annum average)
27
Annual commercial absorption
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
During the last 5 years ~ 36.3 mn sq. ft. of commercial space has been absorbed
The cumulative absorptions in the last 5 years (FY 2008_12) is ~2.5% higher than the projected cumulative supply
in the next 5 years (FY 2013_17)
28
Distribution of absorption by micro-markets
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000 CBD
2,000,000 ABD
Central Mumbai
1,500,000
SBD West
1,000,000 SBD Central
500,000 PBD
-
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
(500,000)
(1,000,000)
Higher rentals and transportation issues in the CBD have increased the outward movement from CBD to SBD West,
Central Mumbai and BKC (ABD).
During the last five years a cumulative negative absorption in the CBD has been observed which can be attributed
to the increase in absorption levels in other areas.
29
Distribution of Absorption by industry
4,000,000
IT/ITES
3,000,000 Non IT
2,000,000 IT/ITeS
Manufacturing
19% 25%
1,000,000
0
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
The absorption considered are the 3 year moving averages for the sectors
The absorption for the IT sector has shown a downward trend in the last three years
The IT and BFSI industries together contribute more than 51% of the total absorption
30
vacancy
40%
35%
30%
Overall
25% CBD
ABD
20%
Central Mumbai
15% SBD West
SBD Central
10%
PBD
5%
0%
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
The average vacancy levels were at a range of 4% during 2008 compared to a very high rates during 2012 at 22%
The high vacancy levels in the recent past were due to the oversupply in the PBD and there has not been
considerable variance in other areas.
31
Vacancy risk
4.5
3.5
3
Year to lease
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
CBD ADB Central Mumbai SBD West SBD Central PBD
The vacancy risks in the PBD are very high followed by SBD West. These two micro markets have high vacancy
levels and the corresponding supply would take about 4 and 3.5 years to get absorbed respectively
The absorption in the ADB and Central Mumbai have been low which has increased the risk in these micro markets
in the recent past
32
Capital value range
40000
35000
30000
25000
INR/sq.ft
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Powai
Lower Parel
Powai-IT
Andheri (E)
Thane
Nariman Point
Malad - Mindspace-IT
Goregaon
Worli - Prabhadevi
Navi Mumbai
Fort/Ballard Estate/Churchgate
BKC
LBS Marg
Malad - Commercial
Worli - Ceejay House
Traditionally the minimum range of the capital values in the CBD areas has been high. However the ABD has
higher capital values compared to some of the parts of Central Mumbai.
The capital values in other Business districts are comparatively low. However, the occupancies in these areas are
also on the rise.
33
Rental range (inr/sq.ft/month)
450
400
350
50
0
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
34
Projected rentals & capital values
The below table presents Mumbai’s office market outlook for the next 5 years,
Rental Value (INR/sq.ft./month) Capital Value (INR/sq.ft.)
Investor Return per
Business District
2012 2017E 2012 2017E annum
35
Projected supply absorption & vacancy trend
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
New Construction 9,508,175 8,945,890 12,351,10 14,467,77 11,968,44 7,786,000 9,496,000 6,138,000 6,000,000 6,000,000
Total Absorption 8,556,429 4,132,152 9,597,703 8,002,342 6,009,762 6,039,587 6,060,253 6,694,297 7,201,290 7,687,265
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
Vacancy
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
36
Annexure - Bandra kurla complex
million square feet supply hit the micro-market in 2012; RNA Bizz RNA Corp Bandra (E) 2,014 U/C
1,70,000
with the completion of The Capital, FIFC and TCG Finance
Godrej Godrej
Centres. The current vacancy level at Bandra Kurla BKC Properties
BKC 2,015 U/C
1,300,000
Complex stands at 17%.
37
retail
38
overview
Prominent Malls and prevailing average ground floor rentals for vanilla retailers– (`/sq.ft./month)
40
rental supply trend
Area in mn sq.ft
magnet. Some of the awaited upcoming projects are 2.50
Viva City Thane and Nirmal Life Style phase II. 2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
41
retail rental trend
80
60
40
20
Mall rentals although have seen a slight downward trend from the 2011 levels
Though they have largely remained stable over the last 2 quarters
However, rentals are expected to witness a marginal increase especially in the successful malls such as
Palladium, Infinity II, Inorbit etc.
42
catchment
analysis
43
hospitality
44
Hotel catchment map
45
Major hospitality developments
Mirage Hotel
Kohinoor Continental
The Orchid
46
Existing Hotels - 3 star
S. No Name Location No of Start year of Occupancy Discounts Rack Rate
rooms operation (%) (%) (INR per night)
Min Max
1 Hotel Transit Off Nehru Road, 400099 Bombay (Mumbai), India Marol Naka 54 1974 50% 10% 5,500 10,000
Nehru Road Ext., Vile Parle (East) Near Domestic Airport,
2
Hotel Transit Hotel Mumbai – 400099 54 1975 70% 25% 5,500 8,000
3 Kumaria Presidency Hotel Andheri East Mumbai, Maharashtra 30 1980 70% 40% 4,100 10,500
4 Hotel Samraj Chakala Road, Andheri East Mumbai, MH 400099 10 1984 70% 0% 3,000 6,500
Hotel Airport Nehru Rd, Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport Area, Vile
6
International Parle East 49 1993 70% 15% 5,000 6,500
Nehru Road, Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport Area, Vile
7
Hotel Airlink Parle East Mumbai, Maharashtra 400057 38 1998 40% 25% 4,400 6,500
Sakinaka Junction, Andheri Kurla Road,J B Nagar Mathuradas
8
Metro International Vasanji Road, Andheri East, Mumbai 31 1998 55% 10% 2,500 5,500
Andheri, Mumbai B 11, Midc Central Road, Andheri East,
9
The International Tunga Mumbai 400093 24 2000 60% 25% 7,500 9,250
10 Hotel Ratna Mahal Chakala Rd, Andheri East Mumbai, MH 400099 20 2000 30% 0% 1,640 2,240
11 Hotel Mina International 61, Andheri Kurla Rd, Andheri East MH 54 2002 65% 10% 3,000 6,000
Andheri, Mumbai P 16, Midc Central Road, Andheri East,
12
The Paradise Tunga Mumbai 400093 40 2005 80% 20% 6,500 7,250
13 Shalimar Hotel A Hwadia Mg, Kurla West, Kurla Mumbai, MH 400070 64 2005 60% 50% 9,000 18,000
Opp Minister Naseem Khan Office, Jerry Mery, Andheri-Kurla
14
Hotel Arma Executive Road 12 2006 70% 25% 3,000 4,500
Sahar Road, Opp. APT Colony, New Sanjay Nagar, Chakala,
15
Hotel Solitaire Andheri (East), Mumbai 400099 Maharashtra 45 2007 30% 25% 4,500 7,200
16 The Residency Intercontinental The Grand Airport Rd, Mumbai, MH 400059 96 2007 65% 25% 5,200 6,800
181-184, Basera, Shaheed BhagatSingh Road, New Andheri -
17
7 Flags International Ghatkopar link Road , Andheri (E),mumbai - 400059, 31 2009 60% 5% 2,750 6,000
18 Sai Palace Hotel Chakala Mumbai, MH 400093 48 2010 50% 20% 5,000 6,000
Nehru Rd, Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport Area, Vile
19
Ibis Mumbai Airport Parle East Mumbai, MH 400099 159 2011 60% 30% 6,000 6,000
Makhwana Road, Off Military Road, Marol, Andheri East,
20
Keys Hotel Nestor Mumbai, Maharashtra 55 2011 80% 15% 5,500 7,000
Near Solitaire Corporate Park, New Chakala Link Road, Chakala,
21
Dragonfly Hotel Andheri East Mumbai, MH 400093 23 2012 40% 25% 6,000 7,500
47
Existing Hotels - 4 star
3 Kohinoor Continental Mathuradas Vasanji Road, Andheri East Mumbai, MH 137 1990 60% 35% 9,000 18,000
6 Hotel Mirage International Airport Approach Road, Marol, Andheri (E), 126 2008 60% 25% 7,500 12,000
7 Suba International Sahar Rd Mumbai, MH 400099 72 2010 60% 25% 6,900 9,100
48
Existing Hotels - 5 star
Min Max
1 The Leela Mumbai Greater Indra Nagar, Andheri East Mumbai, MH 400059 390 1984 65% 40% 17,000 30,000
2 The Orchid Nehru Road, Vile Parle East Adjacent to Domestic Airport 372 1998 60% 10% 1,800 17,000
Mumbai - 400 099
3 Hotel orchid Mumbai Nehru Rd, Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport Area, Vile 372 1998 50% 60% 18,000 28,000
Parle East Mumbai suburban, MH 400099
4 ITC Maratha Sahar Airport Road Mumbai, MH 400099 380 2000 50% 50% 15,000 50,000
6 Hyatt Regency Mumbai Ascot Centre, Sahar Airport Road, Andheri East, Mumbai, 401 2003 55% 10% 10,000 17,000
Maharashtra 400099
7 The Lalit Hotel Sahara Airport Road, Andheri East Mumbai, MH 400059 360 2003 60% 30% 12,000 18,000
8 Grand Hyatt Western Express Hwy, Anand Nagar, Santacruz East Mumbai, 547 2004 65% 5% 9,500 11,500
MH 400055
9 ITC Grand Central 287, Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Road, Parel Mumbai, MH 400099 242 2004 65% 30% 15,000 22,000
10 Hotel Sahara Star Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport Area, Vile Parle East, 223 2006 60% 50% 16,000 25,000
Mumbai, MH 400099
11 The Leela Kempinski Sahar, Andheri East Mumbai, MH 389 2008 60% 60% 1,800 35,000
Mumbai
Average Rack Rate (INR per night) 12,000 - 25,000 7,700 - 13,500 4,800 - 7,500
49
upcoming Hotels
50
Future outlook
The various micro markets in Mumbai with the exception of the CBD area have all seen continuous additions to office
stock that has continued to fuel demand for hotels.
Areas such as Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC, now considered the new CBD), Andheri, Malad, Vikhroli and Goregaon
continue to witness the setting up of new offices resulting in most hotels located in these micro markets witnessing
growth in demand.
Majority of the new supply expected to enter the Mumbai market is also located in the North Mumbai micro markets
of BKC, Andheri, Chembur and Mulund.
Increase in supply, however, over the short term, is expected to be fairly muted Mumbai (including Navi Mumbai)with
inventory additions to the city primarily being on account of expansions and renovations at various hotels.
Developments such as the Mumbai International Airport Limited (MIAL) landside development that includes several
new hotels, commercial and retail complexes, hospitals and so on, to change the face of Mumbai at large in the
medium-to-long term.
Additionally, a proposed convention centre currently being developed near the domestic airport is further expected
to augment large scale MICE demand for the city.
Going forward, with improvements in infrastructure such as the development of the Metro and Monorail, upgradation
of the existing Airport, opening of the Bombay Port Trust Road and so on, outlook for Mumbai remains bullish.
51
office
52
Location map
53
SBD WEST micro market
SBD West consists of markets like Vile Parle, Andheri, Jogeshwari, Malad and Goregaon. Commercial office space
development in SBD West initially began during 2001-2005 with office projects in Malad primarily focused on the
IT/ITeS industry even as Andheri was already an established office market due to the presence of the international
airport. Connectivity on account of the western expressway and suburban train network was already in place to lend an
office market proposition to this business district.
Post 2005, as office demand in the city began to increase, a flurry of office developments began along the western
expressway in locations like Andheri, Goregaon and Jogeshwari. The under-construction metro rail network of Versova-
Andheri-Ghatkopar also increased the appeal on account of anticipated improvement in the connectivity of the office
market of Andheri. Besides the IT/ITeS industry that had a presence in the region, a large number of occupiers from the
BFSI industry started relocating their back-end support functions to this business district because of the attraction of
lower rentals.
The BFSI and IT/ITeS industries together contribute about a third of office demand in SBD West. Mid-size
manufacturing sector companies drive a quarter of the office demand here.
On the back of heightened construction activity on office projects, the stock in the business district more than doubled
from 15.4 mn.sq.ft. in 2008 to 33 mn.sq.ft. in 2012 resulting in a sharp increase in vacancy level. From 6.8% in 2008,
the vacancy in the market has increased to 26.4% at present. Taking cognizance of the supply led slump in the region
some under-construction projects have either been deferred or converted for alternative development
54
SBD WEST micro market
55
Existing projects (1/4)
56
Existing projects (2/4)
57
Existing projects (3/4)
58
Existing projects (4/4)
Capital Values
Builder Project Name Location Project Size sft Rental (Rs/Sft/Month) Status %Sold %Leased Unleased
(Rs/Sft)
91 Atul Projects Trade Avenue Andheri(E) 53000 100 120 Sold 100 100 0
92 Atul Projects Trans Trade Centre Andheri(E) 222000 100 120 Sold 100 100 0
93 Vaman Builder Vaman Techno Centre Andheri(E) 85000 90 110 Sold 100 100 0
94 G.S.Sethi & Sons Central Plaza Kalina 60000 170 232 Sold 100 100 0
95 Gold Coin Builders Diamond Square Kalina 1000000 220 240 Sold 100 100 0
20000-
Grande Palladium Kalina 153000 200 250 Sold 100 100 0
96 GMS Construction 24000
97 KK Krishnan Developers Harbhajan Building Kalina 50000 160 160 Available NFS 80 10000
98 Lotus Group Lotus Mid Town Kalina 340000 100 140 Sold 100 100 0
99 Orbit Corporation Orbit Plaza Kalina 110000 190 210 Sold 100 100 0
100 Oberoi Realty Garden Estates Chandivali 500000 80 100 Sold 100 100 0
101 Hiranandani Light Hall Chandivali 147000 14500-15500 110 150 Available 65 35 95550
102 Hiranandani Light Hall IT Park Chandivali 245000 14500-15500 110 130 Available 0 0 245000
Onyx (Mirchandani Business
Chandivali 65000 80 130 Available 100 78.4 14040
103 Mirchandani Group Park)
104 Srishti Group Srishti Plaza Chandivali 45000 60 80 Sold 100 100 0
105 Mighty Constructions Universal Business Park Chandivali 130000 100 110 Sold 100 100 0
59
Future supply
Rental
Project Capital Values Unleased/U
Builder Project Name Location (Rs/Sft/M Status %Sold %Leased
Size sft (Rs/Sft) nsold
onth)
1 Kanakia Atrium II Andheri Kurla Road 100000 17500-18000 175 225 Available 90 10 90000
2 Lokhandwala Builders City Park Andheri Kurla Road 150000 9000 Available 0 30 105000
3 Skyline Group Skyline Icon Ph-II Andheri Kurla Road 600000 140 160 Available NFS 0 600000
4 Ajmera Times Square (Wing D) Andheri Kurla Road 90000 13950 Available 0 NFL 90000
5 Shamrock Developers AAR PEE COMPLEX Andheri(E) 55000 10000-13000 Available 0 NFL 55000
6 Dheeraj Group August House Andheri(E) 126000 15800-16500 Available 77.8 NFL 27972
7 KSL Group Business Bay Andheri(E) 100000 12500-13000 90 120 Available 20 0 100000
8 Rustomjee Group Central Park Andheri(E) 200000 14500-16000 Available 25 0 200000
9 Atul Projects Corporate Avenue Andheri(E) 250000 16500-17500 120 180 Available 4 0 250000
10 Crescent Construction Crescent Icono Andheri(E) 190025 12000 Available 60.5 NFL 75059.88
11 Kamla Landmarc Kamla Business Avenue Andheri(E) 115000 16000 Available 90 NFL 11500
12 Krishna Ventures Krishna Corporate Pride Andheri(E) 180000 50 80 Available NFS 61.1 70020
13 N Kumar Developers Poonam Plaza Andheri(E) 100000 17000 110 120 Available 45 0 100000
14 Right Channel Constructions Tandice-69(Mahesh Excellency) Andheri(E) 120000 14000-15000 Available 60 0 120000
15 Omkar Realtors & Developers The Summit (Business Bay) Andheri(E) 500000 13000 Available 52.8 NFL 236000
16 Ajmera Ajmera Summit Kalina 50000 22500-25000 Available 0 NFL 50000
17 Kanakia Bommerang Chandivali 1200000 14500-15000 Available 10 20 1080000
60
retail
61
Retail catchment map
62
Existing projects (1/2)
Rental
Launched Total Prj Primary Price
Builder Project Type Project Name Location (Rs/sqft/ Status %Sold %Leased
Sqft Sqft (Rs/sqft)
Month)
Ahuja Group Malls Ahuja Link Santacruz(W) 17,000 17,000 150-200 Sold NFS 100
Akshayraj Buildwell Malls Ark Arcade Andheri(W) 210,000 210,000 12000-18000 Available 97.6 NFL
Ajmera Malls Citi Mall Andheri(W) 130,000 130,000 100-150 Sold 100 100
Cosmos Group Offices/Retail Cosmos Plaza Andheri(W) 134,600 134,600 14,500 90-170 Available 75 75
Mukesh Group Malls Crystal Point Andheri(W) 300,000 300,000 100-150 Available NFS 90
Goel Ganga Group Offices/Retail East Point Kurla(E) 118,000 118,000 10500-15000 80-150 Available 30 0
Kishore Bhai Malls G7 Mall Andheri(W) 125,000 125,000 160-280 Available NFS 48
Globus (R Raheja Group) Malls Globus Bandra(W) 400,000 400,000 250-300 Sold 100 100
Hyatt Group Malls Hyatt Plaza Santacruz(E) 107,000 107,000 190-240 Available NFS 97.2
K Raheja Constructions Malls Infinity Andheri(W) 275,000 275,000 140-200 Sold NFS 100
Kamla Landmarc Offices/Retail Kamla Avionee Vile Parle(W) 30,000 30,000 Sold 100 NFL
Kamla Landmarc Offices/Retail Kamla Spaces Santacruz(W) 90,000 90,000 18000-30000 175-240 Available 91.1 27.8
Kohinoor Planet Malls Kohinoor City Mall Kurla(W) 300,000 300,000 10000-16000 80-125 Available 16.7 66.7
Lotus Group Offices/Retail Lotus Neptune Andheri(W) 91,000 91,000 15000-18000 Available 50 NFL
63
Existing projects (2/2)
Rental
Launched Total Prj Primary Price
Builder Project Type Project Name Location (Rs/sqft/ Status %Sold %Leased
Sqft Sqft (Rs/sqft)
Month)
Man Infra Construction Offices/Retail Man Excellenza Vile Parle(W) 90,000 90,000 21000-35000 Available 57,8 NFL
Phoenix Mall Malls Market City Mall Kurla(W) 1,100,000 1,100,000 140-400 Available NFS 95.5
Dudhwala Group Malls Mega Mall Andheri(W) 360,000 360,000 200-300 Sold 100 100
Dynamix Balwas Group Malls Milan Mall Santacruz(W) 175,000 175,000 150-175 Sold 100 100
DLH Offices/Retail New Chandra Andheri(W) 30,000 35,000 17,000 Available 90 NFL
Sagar Builders Malls Pallazio Andheri(E) 60,000 60,000 110-130 Sold 100 100
Satra Group Malls Prime Mall Vile Parle(W) 130,000 130,000 100-200 Sold 100 100
Suvidha Devlopers Offices/Retail S M Square Andheri(W) 80,000 80,000 15500-22000 100-250 Available 0 0
Kamanwala Housing
Offices/Retail Savoy Chambers Santacruz(W) 100,000 100,000 135-250 Sold 100 100
Construction
Hubtown (Ackruti City) Offices/Retail Solaris Andheri(E) 850,000 850,000 15500-20000 150-175 Available 58.8 40
Andheri Kurla
Ajmera Malls Times Square (Retail) 149,000 149,000 21,000 180 Available 50 50
Road
Developer Not Know Offices/Retail Viraj Tower Andheri(E) 120,000 120,000 100-150 Available 100 79.2
Rodium Realty Ltd Offices/Retail X trium Andheri(E) 82,000 82,000 25,000 175-220 Available 86.9 86.9
64
Upcoming projects
Rental
Launched Total Prj Primary Price
Builder Project Type Project Name Location (Rs/sqft/ Status %Sold %Leased
Sqft Sqft (Rs/sqft)
Month)
Lotus Group Offices/Retail Lotus Pride Vile Parle(W) 25,000 25,000 17000-18000 160-175 Available 50 60
Phoenix Mall Offices/Retail Phoenix Bazaar Kurla(W) 420,000 420,000 10,000 Available 36 NFL
Windsor Corporate
Windsor Realty Offices/Retail Andheri(W) 120,000 120,000 18,000 160-180 Available 55.5 0
Park
Stock 5,699,600
Un-leased 1,266,228
Vacancy 2%
65
Demand
forecast
66
hospitality
67
Hotel demand estimation (1/2)
The hospitality demand has been estimated on the basis of Market Side Approach. Located close to airport, the hotel
potential of subject sites is highly dependent on the travellers arriving at Mumbai Airport.
The assumptions for this analysis has been derived as follows,
Growth Rate is tourist flow has been calculated using the CAGR of air passenger traffic arriving at Mumbai Airport
over past 5 years.
Hotel potential has been assumed at 25% for domestic and 70% for international travellers. The same has been
arrived considering the traveller profile who arrive at Mumbai Airport
Catchment Share of 20% has been assumed. This has been derived on the basis of the share of existing/future
hotel supply in the micro market vis-à-vis the entire Mumbai.
The share of 5 Star, 4 Star and 3 Star guests in domestic and international travellers has been arrived on the basis
of the Guest Analysis survey conducted by FH&RA.
Overall Share of a tourist segment in a star category = Tourist Potential * Catchment Share * Share of the star
category
Number of guests staying per room has been assumed at 1.5
68
Hotel demand estimation (2/2)
Future occupancy in the market has been assumed as follows. The same has been derived based on the proposed
supply in the micro-market. Due to the high future supply, the average occupancy in the micro-market is expected
to dip on account of demand-supply dynamics before it reaches a stable level.
Share of subject development has been arrived based on the existing and future supply of hotels in the micro-
market.
69
Hotel demand estimation
assumptions
5 star 0.75%
4 star 2.00% 5 star 15% 60%
3 star 2.25%
4 star 40% 25%
International
3 star 45% 15%
5 star 8.40%
4 star 3.50% Source: FH&RA Hotel Survey, HVS Hotel Survey, Knight Frank Research
3 star 2.10%
Share of Subject Development
Passenger Traffic Mumbai International Airport
5 star 5%
4 star 5%
(in Millions) 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*
3 star 3%
Average No. of tourists per Domestic 11.68 14.9 17.88 15.32 17.37 20 21.04 9.6
1.5
room
International 6.73 7.35 7.98 8.12 8.23 9.08 9.7 4.81
Total
18.41 22.25 25.9 23.44 25.6 29.07 30.75 14.41
Passengers
Growth Y-o-Y (%) 17.5 20.9 16.2 -9.4 9.2 13.5 5.8
Source: http://www.apaoindia.com
70
Hotel demand estimation
5 star
Particulars Years
Tourist Flow 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
No of Tourists (mn)
Domestic 17,880,000 15,320,000 17,370,000 20,000,000 21,040,000 22,512,800 23,574,469 24,686,204 25,850,367 27,069,430 28,345,982 29,682,735 31,082,526 32,548,330
International 7,980,000 8,120,000 8,230,000 9,080,000 9,700,000 10,379,000 10,868,458 11,380,997 11,917,707 12,479,728 13,068,252 13,684,531 14,329,872 15,005,646
Share of 5 star
Domestic 134,100 114,900 130,275 150,000 157,800 168,846 176,809 185,147 193,878 203,021 212,595 222,621 233,119 244,112
International 670,320 682,080 691,320 762,720 814,800 871,836 912,950 956,004 1,001,087 1,048,297 1,097,733 1,149,501 1,203,709 1,260,474
Hotel Potential 804,420 796,980 821,595 912,720 972,600 1,040,682 1,089,759 1,141,150 1,194,965 1,251,318 1,310,328 1,372,121 1,436,828 1,504,587
- - - -
Occupancy 72% 69% 56% 58% 58% 59% 59% 60% 55% 50% 50% 55% 60% 65%
No. of Room nights generated
744,428 770,169 977,378 1,052,774 1,123,640 1,177,758 1,231,366 1,267,945 1,448,443 1,668,424 1,747,104 1,663,177 1,596,476 1,543,166
(per annum)
No. of Rooms Required 2,040 2,111 2,678 2,885 3,079 3,227 3,374 3,474 3,969 4,572 4,787 4,557 4,374 4,228
There shall be demand of 888 additional 5 star rooms in the micro market. Based on the upcoming
supply we estimate a demand of 250 five star rooms at our site
71
Hotel demand estimation
4 star
Particulars Years
Tourist Flow 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
No of Tourists (mn)
Domestic 17,880,000 15,320,000 17,370,000 20,000,000 21,040,000 22,512,800 23,574,469 24,686,204 25,850,367 27,069,430 28,345,982 29,682,735 31,082,526 32,548,330
International 7,980,000 8,120,000 8,230,000 9,080,000 9,700,000 10,379,000 10,868,458 11,380,997 11,917,707 12,479,728 13,068,252 13,684,531 14,329,872 15,005,646
Share of 5 star
Domestic 357,600 306,400 347,400 400,000 420,800 450,256 471,489 493,724 517,007 541,389 566,920 593,655 621,651 650,967
International 279,300 284,200 288,050 317,800 339,500 363,265 380,396 398,335 417,120 436,790 457,389 478,959 501,546 525,198
Hotel Potential 636,900 590,600 635,450 717,800 760,300 813,521 851,885 892,059 934,127 978,179 1,024,308 1,072,613 1,123,196 1,176,164
- - - -
Occupancy 72% 69% 56% 58% 58% 59% 59% 60% 55% 50% 50% 55% 60% 65%
No. of Room nights generated
991,177 1,132,275 1,300,137
(per annum) 589,401 570,732 755,938 827,944 878,371 920,676 962,582 1,304,239 1,365,745 1,247,996 1,206,322
No. of Rooms Required 1,615 1,564 2,523 2,716 3,103 3,574 3,563 3,420
2,072 2,269 2,407 2,638 3,742 3,305
Existing no of rooms 454 580 580 625
706 706
Additional Rooms Required
3,036
Share of Subject Development 190
There shall be demand of 3,036 additional 4 star rooms in the micro market. Based on the upcoming
supply we estimate a demand of 190 four star rooms at our site
72
Hotel demand estimation
3 star
Particulars Years
Tourist Flow 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P
No of Tourists (mn)
Domestic 17,880,000 15,320,000 17,370,000 20,000,000 21,040,000 22,512,800 23,574,469 24,686,204 25,850,367 27,069,430 28,345,982 29,682,735 31,082,526 32,548,330
International 7,980,000 8,120,000 8,230,000 9,080,000 9,700,000 10,379,000 10,868,458 11,380,997 11,917,707 12,479,728 13,068,252 13,684,531 14,329,872 15,005,646
Share of 5 star
Domestic 402,300 344,700 390,825 450,000 473,400 506,538 530,426 555,440 581,633 609,062 637,785 667,862 699,357 732,337
International 167,580 170,520 172,830 190,680 203,700 217,959 228,238 239,001 250,272 262,074 274,433 287,375 300,927 315,119
Hotel Potential 569,880 515,220 563,655 640,680 677,100 724,497 758,663 794,441 831,905 871,136 912,218 955,237 1,000,284 1,047,456
- - - -
Occupancy 72% 69% 56% 58% 58% 59% 59% 60% 55% 50% 50% 55% 60% 65%
No. of Room nights generated
527,380 497,888 670,530 738,990 782,250 819,926 857,246 882,712 1,008,370 1,161,515 1,216,291 1,157,863 1,111,427 1,074,314
(per annum)
No. of Rooms Required 1,445 1,365 1,838 2,025 2,144 2,247 2,349 2,419 2,763 3,183 3,333 3,173 3,046 2,944
There shall be demand of 2,396 additional 3 star rooms in the micro market. Based on the upcoming
supply we estimate a demand of 90 three star rooms at our site
73
office
74
Office demand estimation
Demand for office space is dependent upon the requirement of occupiers, whether it is for a new office, expansion of
existing office or relocation. Requirement is in turn driven by the growth in revenue of these occupiers. For the purpose
of this study, we have classified occupiers into four broad industries namely IT/ITeS, manufacturing, BFSI and other
service sectors based on the past absorption trend of office space in India. These industries are referred to as the
driver industries.
The office demand has been estimated on the basis of "Bottom Up Approach".
Bottom-up approach
The business potential is estimated for IT/ITeS and BFSI sector and gross revenue is forecasted.
Regression analysis has been performed with office space as dependent variable and Size of BFSI industry and size of ITES
industry as dependent variable.
Net space requirement shall be estimated by deducting the existing supply from the gross required space.
75
Office demand estimation
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.993815
R Square 0.987667
Adjusted R Square 0.983557
Standard Error 0.065088
Observations 9
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 2.035672 1.017836 240.2577 1.88E-06
Residual 6 0.025419 0.004236
Total 8 2.06109
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -4.49523 0.483279 -9.30152 8.74E-05 -5.67778 -3.31269 -5.6777756 -3.3126919
IT/ITES 0.786503 0.16158 4.867567 0.002801 0.39113 1.181876 0.39113014 1.18187557
BFSI 0.161655 0.180172 0.897226 0.40416 -0.27921 0.60252 -0.2792099 0.60251955
76
retail
77
retail demand estimation
The retail demand has been estimated on the basis of "Bottom Up Approach".
Bottom-up approach
Primary and secondary catchment is identified
Based on the revenue potential, gross space requirement is estimated based on the rental levels and the market-wide
proportion of the same to gross revenue.
Net space requirement shall be estimated by deducting the existing supply from the gross required space.
Catchment Target catchment Total retail market Organized retail Average trading
Mall space demand
identification population size market penetration density
78
retail demand estimation
Average annual household expenditure 458,440 481,362 505,430 530,701 557,236 585098 KF Research, Skyline
Spend on retail 90% 412,596 433,226 454,887 477,631 501,513 526,588 KF Assumption
Total demand from residential population in INR mn 182,535 191,662 201,245 211,307 221,872 232966 Derived
Conversion from tourists 40%
Average expenditure per traveller 3,000 3,150 3,308 3,473 3,647 3,829
Total demand from travellers in INR mn 115 206 231 260 292 328 Derived
Average trading density 5,000 5,250 5,513 5,788 6,078 6,381 KF Research
Total retail space required in mn sq.ft 37.13 37.15 37.15 37.15 37.15 37.16 Derived
% share of organized retail space 40% 40% 42% 44% 46% 49% 51% KF Assumption
% share of mall space 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Total Organized retail space required 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.5 Derived
Existing +Upcoming Mall space 4.56 5.04 5.09 5.09 5.09 5.34 KF Research
Demand (in mn sq.ft) 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.1 Derived
There shall be demand of additional 4.1 million sq. ft. retail space in the micro market by 2017
79
recommendations
80
Plot no : Ns-CO2
North sahar zone
Avg room
Proposed Hotel No of Hotel Banquet Hall Office/Retail Commercial/ Remaining
Plot No. FSI/ Max. Gross Built-Up Area (sq. ft.) size
Category Rooms (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) Retail % Area (sq. ft.)
(sq. ft.)
NSCO2 770,545 5 star 300 1000 300,000 10,500 192,636 25% 267,409
Product Area (sq. ft.) % Share For this land parcel the minimum room requirement is in line with our market demand
Hotel 300,000 39% assessment. Based on the numbers presented in the table, the development shall
Banquet Hall 10,500 1% has 0.27 million sq. ft. of excess development potential. The same has been arrived
Office/Retail 192,636 25% after constructing the minimum rooms indicated in RFQ document and maximum
Remaining Area 267,409 35% permissible office/retail component indicated in indicative floor plans. The minimum
770,545 100% rooms and suggested office/retail component are within the market demand
Hotel suggested in previous section.
Category 5 star The excess area can be utilized via two strategies-
No of rooms 300
i. Strategy 1 (High Commercial)- The 267,409 sq. ft. of excess space shall be used
Average Room Size (sq. ft.) 1000
for commercial use as an annexure commercial block with support retail.
Achievable ARR (INR per night) 7,000 - 7,500 However, the same is subject to the grant of requisite approvals from MIAL and
Average Occupancy 60% MMRDA.
Banquet Hall ii. Strategy 2 (Phased Development) - The remaining area can be used for
Capacity (persons) 700
constructing 267 additional 5 star rooms. However, based on our demand
assessment, we understand that there is not so much demand in market at
Average Occupancy 40%
present. Hence, under this strategy we recommend a phased development,
Rate (INR/person) 1200
wherein these additional 267 rooms be constructed after 4-5 years when there
shall be adequate demand in the market.
81
Plot no : Ns-CO3
North sahar zone
Avg room
Proposed Hotel No of Hotel Banquet Hall Office/Retail Commercial/ Remaining
Plot No. FSI/ Max. Gross Built-Up Area (sq. ft.) size
Category Rooms (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) Retail % Area (sq. ft.)
(sq. ft.)
NSCO3 394,900 4 star 300 800 240,000 10,500 98,725 25% 45,675
Product Area (sq. ft.) % Share For this land parcel the minimum room requirement is in line with our market
Hotel 240,000 51% demand assessment. Based on the numbers presented in the table, the
Banquet Hall 10,500 3% development shall has 0.05 million sq. ft. of excess development potential. The
Office/Retail 98,725 25% same has been arrived after constructing the minimum rooms indicated in RFQ
Remaining Area 45,675 22% document and maximum permissible office/retail component indicated in indicative
394,900 100% floor plans. The minimum rooms and suggested office/retail component are within
Hotel the market demand suggested in previous section.
Category 4 star
The excess area can be utilized via two strategies-
No of rooms 300
i. Strategy 1 (High Commercial) - The 45,675 sq. ft. of excess space shall be used
Average Room Size (sq. ft.) 800
for commercial use as an annexure commercial block with support retail.
Achievable ARR (INR per night) 5,500 - 6,000 However, the same is subject to the grant of requisite approvals from MIAL and
Average Occupancy 60% MMRDA.
Banquet Hall ii. Strategy 2 (Phased Development - The remaining area can be used for
Capacity (persons) 700 constructing 57 additional 4 star rooms. However based on our demand
40%
assessment, we understand that there is not so much demand in market at
Average Occupancy
present. Hence, under this strategy we recommend a phased development,
Rate (INR/person) 1000
wherein these additional 107 rooms be constructed after 2-3 years when there
shall be adequate demand in the market.
82
Plot no : Ns-CO4
North sahar zone
Avg room
FSI/ Max. Gross Built-Up Area (sq. Proposed Hotel No of Hotel Banquet Hall Meeting Hall Office/Retail Commercial/ Remaining
Plot No. size
ft.) Category Rooms (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) Retail % Area (sq. ft.)
(sq. ft.)
Product Area (sq. ft.) % Share For this land parcel, the minimum room requirement for 4 star is in line with our
Hotel 200,000 48%
market demand assessment. However for 3 star rooms, we suggest a maximum of 80
Banquet Hall 10,500 2%
Meeting Hall 3,000 1% room Based on the numbers presented in the table, the development shall has 0.16
Office/Retail 124,466 25% million sq. ft. of excess development potential. The same has been arrived after
Remaining Area 159,897 24% constructing the minimum rooms indicated in RFQ document (4 star)/suggested by
497,863 100% demand assessment (3 star) and maximum permissible office/retail component
Hotel indicated in indicative floor plans. The minimum rooms and suggested office/retail
Category 4 star/3 star component are within the market demand suggested in previous section.
No of rooms 200/80
Average Room Size (sq. ft.) 800/500 The excess area can be utilized via two strategies-
5,500 - 6,000 /
Achievable ARR (INR per night) 4,000 - 4,500 i. Strategy 1 (High Commercial)- The 159,897 sq. ft. of excess space shall be used
Average Occupancy 60% for commercial use as an annexure commercial block with support retail.
However, the same is subject to the grant of requisite approvals from MIAL and
Meeting Room (persons) 200 MMRDA.
Average Occupancy 40%
Rate (INR/person) 1000 ii. Strategy 2 (Phased Development - The remaining area can be used for
constructing 200-320 additional rooms, depending on the category. However
Banquet Hall capacity based on our demand assessment, we understand that there is not so much
700
(persons)
Average Occupancy 40%
demand in market at present. Hence, under this strategy we recommend a
Rate (INR/person) 1000 phased development, wherein these additional rooms be constructed after 4-5
years when there shall be adequate demand in the market. 83
Plot no : NV - CO1
North village zone
Avg room
Proposed Hotel No of Hotel Office/Retail Commercial/
Plot No. FSI/ Max. Gross Built-Up Area (sq. ft.) size
Category Rooms (sq. ft.) (sq. ft.) Retail %
(sq. ft.)
Product Area (sq. ft.) % Share For this land parcel the minimum room requirement is in line with our market
Hotel 140,000 99% demand assessment. Based on the numbers presented in the table, the entire
development can be utilized in a single phase of development.
Office/Retail 1,041 1%
141,041 100%
Hotel
Category 4 star
No of rooms 200
Average Room Size (sq. ft.) 700
Achievable ARR (INR per night) 5,500 - 6,000
Average Occupancy 60%
84
Way forward
Our recommendations are based on the indicative development guidelines coupled with our market demand
estimation. However based on our assessment of the RFQ document and Development Guidelines, we understand
there are certain points which seek clarity. We would recommend that following queries should be raised to GVK
seeking written confirmation on the same.
The amount of FSI premium payable in event of seeking this additional FSI of 1?
Would Fungible FSI of 15% (for Staircase, Lift and Lobbies) be applicable above Net FSI of 5?
What is the maximum percentage/quantum of the approved BUA; that can be utilized for Non Hospitality activities
like commercial/retail for each of these land parcels?
Can the land use be modified as per provisions of CSIANA DCR Table-49B?
The tentative plans state the minimum number of rooms approved from each of these land parcels can the same to
be modified?
What is allowable ground coverage?
What is the definition of First Class, Mid-Market and Budget category hotel? Can a four star hotel be classified
under First Class?
85
Annexure
86
Annexure i*
ii. Can the land use be modified as per provisions of CSIANA DCR Table-49B?
Land use is frozen and cannot be modified at a later date as per provisions of CSIANA DCR Table-49B
iii. What is the definition of First Class, Mid-Market and Budget category hotel? Can we do a four star hotel under First Class?
The hotel category classification referred in RFQ doesn't follow Department of Tourism (GoI) guidelines. The indicative floor plans
drawings and minimum room requirement suggested are based on minimum room size requirement. The only criteria for
differentiating room category is the room size.
*The above clarifications are based on our interaction with GVK officials and same should not be interpreted as official communication.
87
Annexure I* Cont…
iv. What is the maximum percentage/quantum of the approved BUA; that can be utilized for Non Hospitality activities like
commercial/retail for each of these land parcels?
The tentative plans state the minimum number of rooms approved from each of these land parcels can the same to be
modified?
What is allowable ground coverage?
The bidder has complete flexibility to design the building; and optimize utilization of commercial, retail.
While hospitality is a mandatory component; the number of rooms specified in the bid documents is indicative and not
mandatory. However the development should be consolidated block same entry and exit like the Westin and Palladium. The
development timelines in 5 years for 100% of the sanctioned development from date of signing of lease to CoD. MIAL is expected
to release land having potential for 8,000 rooms supply in the next 8 years.
Ground coverage should be arrived at from the applicable setbacks stated in the development guidelines.
*The above clarifications are based on our interaction with GVK officials and same should not be interpreted as official communication.
88
Thank You
89