One Belt One Road / Belt Road Initiative

1. Introduction
“If you want to grow rich, build a corridor.” (Chinese Proverb)
2. What is BRI?
It is a development strategy of China that focuses regional connectivity and
cooperation between Eurasian and African countries by transcending
regions and continents.
2013  OBOR
2016  BRI (name changed)
Strategy or Initiative?
Initiative implies positive venture (win-win situation)
Strategy implies negative venture (zero sum gain)
3. Two Components of BRI
3.1. Maritime Silk Road: Sea-route (String of Pearl) South China Sea
– Strait of Malacca – Indian Ocean Region – Middle East & Africa
3.2. Silk Road Economic Belt: Overland communication, Infrastructure
of roads, railways and highways. It has following 6 corridors
1- China Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor
2- New Eurasian Land Bridge
3- China Central and West Asia Economic Corridor
4- China Indo-China Peninsula Economic Corridor
5- Bangladesh China India Myanmar Economic Corridor
6- China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
(CPEC: a flagship project of OBOR and a regional game changer.~CSS)
Total Investment on BRI  $1 trillion (can go to $8 trillion)
Total investment till 2025 in BRI $160 billion
Total Invested up till now in BRI  $90 billion
Dedicated for CPEC  $72 billion
Invested up till now in CPEC  $27 billion

4. Background / What does China wants to achieve

4.1. Ancient Silk Routes
HAN Dynasty: Because of Silk trade, started in 130 B.C. and ended in
1452 A.D. when Ottoman Empire boycotted trade and close it
 1st Route: China  Central Asia  Mediterranean Sea
2nd Route: China  Indian Ocean Region  South China Sea
4.2. Rise of China: Revival
 The concept of ancient Silk Route is revived. In 2003, BRI term was
surfaced. 2016 USA and India created propaganda that it’s a strategy that
represents China’s unidentified ambitions. That’s why China renamed it
as an Initiative from Strategy.
 Chinese Century: China says that previously we were in century of
humiliation and now we will grow as Chinese led global order till 2049.
China will have global influence.
4.3. External Benefits to China
(1) *Geo-Political
 China wants soft power to influence the region, and it will happen
only when China contributes in altering their work i.e. by BRI
(2) *Geo-Economic
 China wants to be the biggest economy in the region and ultimately
globally.
 New markets where Chinese commodities can be sold out and ts
economy cannot be slowed down. As we are seeing that its
economic growth rate has decreased from 7.6% to 7.4% in
repercussion of US-China Trade war.
(3) Geo-Strategic (CSS – 2017, 2019)
 QUAD: A threat to China  Japan, USA, India and Australia
 Malacca Dilemma: Affects energy security
 China wants an alternate energy sea route which is form Gwadar.
4.4. Internal Benefits to China
(1) Boost Global economic links to Western regions of China which
has historically being neglected
 Xinjiang region
 Curb secessionist tendencies (IMU – Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan) and separatist violence (Uyghur Muslim).
Uyghur re-education camps.
(2) Secure long-term energy supplies from Central Asia and Middle
East.
Discuss: the distance & time & security for the 2 routes (CPEC and
old water route) DO IT YOURSELF
 (3) Assertive role of China in the region and improve Chinese image
globally by growing them economically. Use of hard and soft
power to have influence in the region like Uyghur Xinjiang.
(4) Bridging infrastructure gap in Asia and beyond. To develop just
like the European infrastructure.
5. Funding of the project
5.1. AIIB (Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank)
5.2. BRICS New Development Bank
Brazil Russia India China and South-Africa
5.3. SCO Inter-bank Association
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
5.4. Silk Road Economic Fund (Business community investment)
Discuss investments here as discussed above
6. Stumbling blocks in the way of BRI
6.1. USA
 Unipolar  Bipolar, China’s hegemony is Asia and surrounding
 Propaganda that BRI is debt trap diplomacy: Pak is among the 8
countries which are probable to fall in debt trap
 America supports Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to counter BRI
 Counter BRI with Trade-war
 Contain of rise of China. Thucydides’ Trap (the conflict b/w
established power and rising power is inevitable) by Graham Allison
6.2. India
 BIMSTEC (Bangladesh India Myanmar Sri-Lanka Thailand Economic
Corridor + Nepal Bhutan) alternate corridor to BRI. India wants to be
dominant. In Modi’s oath taking ceremony, only BIMSTEC countries
from South Asia were there.
 CPEC passes through disputed territory
 India’s refusal to participate in 2nd BRI summit (April 26,27 in China)
6.3. Propaganda of QUAD
 Threat to Maritime Silk Road
6.4. European Union
 DO IT YOURSELF
7. Chinese vision behind OBOR (CSS 2017-19)
7.1. Strategic
  Dominate and secure trade routes in the region – South-China sea
route, Indian Ocean Route, East China Sea Route, West China sea
route
 Address Malacca Dilemma: Where India’s hegemony can influence
the trade anytime
 Response to US pivot to Asia in the form String of Pearls
 Security of SLOCs (Sea Lines of Communication)
 Counter Indian Strategic orientation in the region. A) India Ocean
Region B) Indo-Pacific Region
 3 more Do it Yourself

7.2. Economic
 Energy security
 Regional connectivity and interdependence
 Develop peripheral areas within and outside China
 To bring peace in the region through economics
 Connect under-developed region or global south
 Search new market for China
7.3. Political
 Formulate ring of alliance in Asia
 Asia for Asian OR Chinese led Asian order
 End America’s presence in the region
 Hegemony in East Asian region (ASEAN) and South China Sea
8. Will BRI be a success story? (develop a positive hope)
Alliance, Treaty, economy
 Larger participation of world (2nd BRI Summit)
 Approx. 30% of CPEC completion
 China’s greater economic and political hold
 Make from BRI Summit
9. *Is BRI Chinese version of Martial Law?
 DO IT YOURSELF
 Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister “[The BRI] is neither a Marshall plan nor
a geostrategic concept,” rather it is an attempt to “build a community with
a shared future for mankind together with other countries around the
globe”.
  Both the $72bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and a natural gas
pipeline from the Burmese coast to Yunnan province bypass the Singapore
Strait, which could be blockaded by the US navy in the event of a conflict
with China.
10.Conclusion

NOTES
 2nd BRI Summit: Belt and Road cooperation: Shaping a Brighter and Shared
future. (26,27 April – Beijing, China)
- 125 Countries, 40 International Organisations, 37 Heads of State in
government, 5000 delegates participated.
- Implementation of $90 billion projects and confidence of other 175
agreements can make it a success story.
 OBOR is China’s most important strategic initiative and is grandiose in
nature, covering around 65 countries accounting for 65% of the world
population, around 50% of the world GDP (economic aggregation of $21
trillion) and a 29% share in global trade.
 China is saying to the world that I am not the imperial or colonizer like the
America and Europe, I don’t have ambition to dominate the world. I just
want win-win situation.
 Report Washington-based Centre for Global Development (CGD):
68 potential borrower countries  23 high risk of debt.
8/23 countries would potentially face difficulties in servicing their debt
because of future financing related to BRI projects, which are Pakistan,
Djibouti, the Maldives, Laos, Mongolia, Montenegro, Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan.
 China will require greater naval technological advancement
