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Abstract
This article presents perspectives on jet fuel, analyzing supply and demand in the Brazilian
market and the logistical infrastructure available, with emphasis on pipeline transport and its
importance of fuel supply guarantee for the aviation sector.
1. Introduction
In the 21th century, air transport began to have a growing importance for long distance
travelers in Brazil. In 2018, domestic airlines transported 103 million passengers in domestic
and international flights, a rise of 4.1% compared to 2017 (98.9 million), according to the
National Agency of Civil Aviation (Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil – ANAC). Cargo
transport and mail transport had also growth rate at 10.5% compared to the same period in the
previous year, the largest variation in the sector in last 7 years (ANAC, 2019).
Aircrafts have become the most used form of commercial transport in interstate travels since
2010, prevailing over road transport and railway transport. In 2017, the market share of air
transport in commercial interstate travels was 68%, the other 32% belonging to road transport
(ANAC, 2017). Despite that, Brazil still has less than one domestic flight per habitant in a
year, indicating potential for growth when compared to developed countries (ABEAR, 2017).
According to the Brazilian Energy Balance(BEB) , jet fuel sales in Brazil, in 2018, were about
7.5 million cubic meters, with 6.4 million cubic meters originated from national refineries
(corresponding to 85% of national demand) and the remaining 0.9 million cubic meters being
imported (EPE, 2019).
In Brazil, jet fuel is mostly transported by pipelines, trucks or ships. Particularly, pipelines
have a fundamental role, transporting high volumes of jet fuel from refineries to terminals,
distribution bases and, in some cases, directly to airports.
In May 2018, Brazil underwent a crisis in fuel supply when truck drivers went on strike.
Distribution of goods was almost completely suspended, result of roadblocks, generating
significant socio-economic impacts for the country. The aviation sector was impacted, with jet
fuel supplies running out in some airports, causing delays and cancelling flights. However, the
______________________________
¹ Specialist, Chemist, Energy Research Analyst - EPE
2
MSc, Chemical Engineer, Energy Research Analyst - EPE
3
MSc, Economist, Energy Research Analyst - EPE
4
Dsc, Economist, Deputy Head of Oil Department - EPE
5
MBA, Chemical Engineer, Technical Consultant - EPE
6
MSc, Mathematician, Head of Oil Department - EPE
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two largest airports in the country, Guarulhos (São Paulo) and Galeão (Rio de Janeiro), were
not affected by the strike, as they are supplied by pipelines connected directly to supply
sources (refineries and distribution bases). The situation ratified the strategic importance of
transmission pipelines for airports fuel supply.
According to the reference scenario of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2027, energetic
demand for transport sector is expected to increase (EPE, 2018a). Since there is a growing
demand of jet fuel and an evolution in domestic aviation, it is important to make investment
decisions to overcome logistical bottlenecks.
Jet fuel is an oil product originated mostly from paraffinic and aromatic hydrocarbons
(between 9 and 15 carbon atoms), with a boiling temperature range of 150ºC to 300ºC. The
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) is responsible for setting the
parameters of fuel specification. The ANP Resolution nº 778/2019 stablish the jet fuel
standard (QAV-1), alternative jet fuel (alternative kerosene) and jet fuel C (QAV-C). It also
stablish quality control obligations to agents who market these products in Brazil.
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The Table 1 displays the production of jet fuel in Brazilian refineries between 2014 and 2018,
allowing a complete analysis of the geographic distribution of production in the country.
Table 1. Jet fuel production in Brazil – 2014 to 2018 (thousand m³/year)
According to ANP (2019), Brazil’s average production of jet fuel is roughly 6 million cubic
meters. Four refineries located in the Southeast Region - Revap, Reduc, Replan and Regap
account for 82% of the total.
Brazilian refineries output are not capable of supply the national demand, which has been
complemented with imports. Figure 3 shows jet fuel market in Brazil between 2013 and 2018.
In 2018, national demand reach 7.5 million cubic meters while refineries’ production summed
up to 6.4 million cubic meters.
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Similarly to production location, jet fuel demand is also concentrated in the Southeast Region.
Domestic sales in 2018 answered for 64% of the market, as shown in Figure 4.
South North
7% 5% Northeast
Midwest
9% 16%
Southeast
64%
7.5 million m³
Figure 4. Jet fuel distribution sales by region in 2018
Source: ANP (2019)
Besides high concentrated demand in the Southeast Region, there are great opportunities in
others parts of Brasil.
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5 shows how the consumption of jet fuel grew between 1970 and 2018. It separates domestic
aircrafts demand from foreign ones.
After the successful implementation of a national economic plan (Plano Real - 1994), jet fuel
demand reached 5 billion of liters (1998). After restructure of the sector1, a steady growth rate
was established and demand reached 7.5 billion of liters in 2014. But the economic recession
in the following years (2015 and 2016), contribute to the reduction of jet fuel consumption to
6.8 billion of liters in 2017, recovering to 7.5 billion of liters in 2018.
With the economic recovery scenario and increase in income, it is expected that the demand
for air travels is going to raise in the next years, with growth pushed by the middle class. It’s
also important to note that the National Congress approved Bill nº 12/20192 should add more
competition as it opens the domestic flights for international capital. A ten-year forecast (EPE,
2018a) indicates the highest growth in demand and net imports, as presented in Figure 6.
Billion of liters Production Demand Net Imports
10 9.0
8.0 8.5
8 7.1 7.5
6.5 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.0
6
4
2.0
2 1.0 1.3 1.5
0.6
0
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
Figure 6. Forecasts for production, demand and net imports of jet fuels
Source: EPE (2018a)
1
The Brazilian airline sector operates under competition of a few domestic companies with freedom of prices
regimen (since 2001 for domestic flights and since 2010 for international destinations originating from Brazilian
airports) and freedom to provide service, since 2005. These changes were established by Law nº 11.182/2005,
the same law that created the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC, 2017).
2
Until the beginning of June, the Brazilian President has not sanctioned it.
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Considering currently operating refineries and the projects under construction phase, the
production of jet fuel in Brazilian refineries is likely to stay in the range between
6.5 and 7.0 billion of liters per year until 2027, which is insufficient for supply the demand.
With forecasts indicating a growing demand, it is expected that net imports will reach
2.0 billion of liters in 2027, spotlighting the challenge of long term supply and the need for
investment on logistics infrastructure.
2.3 The consumption of biokerosene and its impact on jet fuel demand
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA, 2019), the aviation industry
accounts for 2% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This demonstrates the significance
of effective action to reduce carbon emissions in order to ensure sustainable aviation
development. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) approved in 2016 an
agreement that determines carbon neutral growth in the aviation industry from 2020 - Carbon
Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). The agreement
established the use of emission-offsetting instruments, energy efficiency promotion and the
use of alternative drop-in fuels3. It is understood as alternative fuel the biofuel obtained
through technological routes certified by American Society for Testing and Materials
International (ASTM) and called aviation biokerosene.
The introduction of aviation biokerosene in the Brazilian energy matrix will occur from the
second half of the 2020s, corresponding to a market share of approximately 1% of the total
aviation fuel demand (90 million of liters), considering certified technological routes
internationally by ASTM and regulated in Brazil by the ANP. Therefore, biokerosene
represents an alternative not only to reduce CO2 emissions, but also to reduce imports to meet
Brazilian jet fuel’s demand.
3
Drop-in fuels are biofuels for aviation fully compatible and miscible with conventional fuel, without requiring
adjustments to the aircraft, engine or fuel supply infrastructure, and their use should not result in restrictions on
the use of the aircraft. Depending on the production process, the biofuel can be considered drop-in only up to a
certain percentage of the mixture, because, at higher levels, it would not meet the required specifications (IATA,
2019).
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The jet fuel transmission from the supplier to its final destination includes economic analyses
for the logistic network available. Pipelines transport jet fuel from domestic refineries to
terminals or distribution bases. Imported jet fuel arrives in marine terminals and from these
are transported by pipeline to land terminals or directly to distribution bases by pipeline or
ships. Land terminals use transmission pipelines to transport jet fuel to water terminals, so it
can be sent to other regions by cabotage. Secondary bases and aircraft parks receive jet fuel
from primary bases, delivering the product to a retailer or final consumer (ANP, 2014). Figure
8 presents the regional infrastructure for jet fuel in Brazil.
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North region logistics relies mainly in waterborne transport, with jet fuel production from
NORTH Reman (AM) and by cabotage from Miramar port (Belém/PA). After being sent to primary
REGION distribution bases in Manaus and Belém, the jet fuel is transported by ship or truck to regional
aerodromes.
Despite having three refineries, RNEST (PE), RLAM (BA) and RPCC (RN), regional production of
jet fuel is not sufficient for meeting the demand, with maritime transport - both long course
NORTHEAST
and cabotage, being necessary. Ports of Suape (PE) and Itaqui (MA) are primarily importation
REGION
hubs, while the Port of Mucuripe (CE) and Terminal Madre de Deus (BA) are cabotage ports.
From the distribution bases, jet fuel is then transported by road to northeastern aerodromes.
Output from Regap (MG) and Reduc (RJ) supply the states of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and
Espírito Santo and the transport is done mainly by trucks. In Rio de Janeiro, jet fuel is sent
directly from Reduc to Galeão airport by pipeline. From Galeão, it is transported by road to
local aerodromes and to Espírito Santo state. In São Paulo, jet fuel is supplied by local
refineries Replan and Revap and it is also internalized in Terminal de São Sebastião (SP). This
SOUTHEAST
terminal is important not only for stoking São Paulo, but also the Midwest region, and other
REGION
regions by cabotage. Revap supplies the regions of Vale do Paraíba, Baixada Santista and
Grande São Paulo. Replan markets its products with other areas of the state, and also Midwest
region. Jet fuel is transported by pipeline or by road between refineries, terminals and
distribution bases in the state. The largest national airport (Guarulhos) receives jet fuel directly
from Revap (Revap – TT Guarulhos – Aeroporto Guarulhos).
Having no jet fuel production and being a landlocked region, demand is supplied by southeast
MIDWEST
refineries Replan (SP) and Regap (MG) by road transport. Regap (MG) supplies about 50% of
REGION
the Federal District demand.
South region is supplied by Refap (RS) and Repar (PR) refineries, which send jet fuel by
SOUTH
pipelines to the distribution bases of Araucária (PR), Canoas and Esteio (RS). From there, jet
REGION
fuel is transported by truck to the aerodromes of the three Southern states.
Figure 8. Regional infrastructures for jet fuel distribution
Source: EPE, based in ANP (2014)
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Infrastructure available for transmission in São Paulo state includes Osplan 18”, Osplan 24”,
Osvat 16” and Cumbica 10”. Those pipelines are important for jet fuel supply guarantee,
specially by the level of transmission volume from Osvat pipeline to the land terminal of
Guarulhos, 2.7 million m³ (7.4 thousand m³/day). Guarulhos and Guararema land terminals,
the maritime terminal of São Sebastião, and the refinaries Revap and Replan comprise the
core of the region’s transmission system.
The Osrio 16” pipeline transmits jet fuel in the Revap-Guararema-Reduc system. The Duque
de Caxias refinery (Reduc) supplies Galeão airport (RJ) through Faixa 9 10” pipeline. As
other airports in Rio de Janeiro state and the ones in Espírito Santo state receive their jet fuel
by road from Galeão, with no data available separating these demands, it is assumed that the
jet fuel transported in the Faixa 9 10” pipeline represents to the total sales of fuel in these two
states. In 2017, the volume corresponded was 1.1 million m³ (3.1 thousand m³/day), according
to ANP (2019). In Bahia state, since 2017, jet fuel has been transported by the Orsub pipeline
to the land-based terminals of Itabuna and Jequié, from the marine terminal Madre de Deus
(Temadre).
The Figure 9 presents the forecast of the operation of pipelines that send jet fuel to the airports
Galeão (Faixa 9 10”) and Guarulhos (Cumbica 10”). EPE (2018a) indicates that, by 2024, the
pipeline Cumbica 10” will reach the maximum operational capacity (7.1 thousand m³/day).
The pipeline supplying Galeão airport, however, operates below 50% of maximum capacity,
transporting 2.8 thousand m³/day in 2019 and reaching 3.4 thousand m³/day in 2027,
presenting no risk of operational bottlenecks in near future.
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Capacity¹
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
4. Final Remarks
The perspective of economic recovery in Brazil and increase in demand for air travels brings
back attention on the country’s limitation of logistic chain. An insufficient logistical
infrastructure for fuel transmission generates vulnerabilities and may result in competitively
loss. In this regard, expanding the pipeline grid in Brazil can reduce costs and pollution of
fuels transmission (mitigating emissions), stimulating competition in the national market and
contributing to a smaller supply risk. Particularly, pipeline transmission has strategic
importance in supplying jet fuel directly to airports.
Currently, Brazil is going through a special moment in the downstream sector, with Petrobras
changing its approach to the Brazilian market and divesting from assets on transport,
distribution and retail. In such scenario, investments by private agents to expand both the
refining and logistics segments gain relevance. It is necessary to understand these markets,
identifying the main barriers to investment. The Abastece Brasil Program and the REIDI
present themselves as useful government mechanisms to promote the downstream sector.
Finally, the Oil Pipeline Plan, under development by EPE, aims to be an important tool to
subsidize the Brazilian government in pipeline infrastructure projects and their impact for
national energetic planning, as well as provides information to private agents interested in
investing on downstream sector.
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