Calculations

Step 1 Score Predictor sheet based on data from 2016-2018 Reddit Surveys - u/Bearcub84 (with acknowle

Goal:

250
Formula-
Date based
Test * Score ** Goals Completed *** Data year Prediction Std. Dev.
Free 120 % 70 88 12/1/2018 2016 238.61 6.27
Kaplan % 50 73 2/13/2019 2017 236.01 11.24
NBME 12 220 229 2018 236.90 8.33
NBME 13 230 230
NBME 15 230 237 AVERAGE 237.17 8.62
NBME 16 220 239 2/10/2019
NBME 17 244 Study period
NBME 18 220 246 Start End Days
NBME 19 220 236 1/27/2019 12/1/2018 2/13/2019 75
Rx % 60 76 2/13/2019
UWSA1 230 253 1/23/2019
UWSA2 220 251
Uworld % 60 75 2/11/2019

* Use percentages for Free 120, Rx, Uworld, Kaplan (e.g. 80% enter as 80)
** LEAVE FIELD BLANK IF YOU DON’T HAVE A SCORE/DATE; only enter data into red boxes with blue background
*** Ensure your date of test completed is within the Study Period window; otherwise this will cause erroneous calculations. C

Summary: Predictions based on yearly survey results are in fields F4:F6, with an average calculated in G8. Pre
R2 values were used as weighting to correct the prediction, but has minimal effect (result in K8). The 2018 data a
UWSA Ave, and UWSA+NBME Ave and associated R2 values (formulas from u/SchoolinMedSchool). These wer
a comparison. The "goals" fields are merely for your own tracking of results and motivation (you can play with nu
goal score by looking at the averages of the first set of calculations below the line [results in fields G27:G39]
[C4:C16]). Note that Date-adjusted method does not utilize R2.

DO NOT ENTER OR CHANGE ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE - THESE ARE USED FOR CALCULATIONS

Equations Test 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data * Average Day of study
Free 120 229.42 221.79 225.87 225.69 1
Kaplan % 234.43 - 226.33 230.38 75
NBME 12 246.35 - - 246.35 -
NBME 13 245.79 254.90 253.05 251.25 -
NBME 15 245.47 247.38 246.20 246.35 -
NBME 16 239.64 236.65 240.60 238.96 72
NBME 17 - - - - -
NBME 18 235.39 231.68 234.78 233.95 -
NBME 19 - 239.08 240.43 239.76 58
Rx % 243.81 - 240.00 241.91 75
UWSA1 240.62 233.32 236.74 236.89 54

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UWSA2 232.41 223.32 229.82 228.52 -
Uworld % 231.40 - 232.05 231.73 73
Ave 238.61 236.01 236.90 237.64 408

Needs updated formula No Data

* linear formulas used for some as polynomial formulas generated incompatible numbers

R2 values across all data sets [DO NOT CHANGE] calcs for sumproducts

2016 2017 * 2018 Test 2016 data

Free 120 0.2457 1 0.4726 Free 120 229.42
Kaplan % 0.2225 - 0.3612 Kaplan % 17582.25
NBME 12 0.5499 - - NBME 12 -
NBME 13 0.5429 1 0.4054 NBME 13 -
NBME 15 0.3559 1 0.433 NBME 15 -
NBME 16 0.3561 1 0.605 NBME 16 17253.94
NBME 17 0.4132 1 0.567 NBME 17 -
NBME 18 0.4404 1 0.5831 NBME 18 -
NBME 19 - 1 0.5368 NBME 19 -
Rx % 0.0452 - 0.302 Rx % 18286.05
UWSA1 0.3805 1 0.5247 UWSA1 12993.21
UWSA2 0.4178 1 0.6126 Excel-based UWSA2 -
Uworld % 0.4956 - 0.457 Uworld % 16892.05
sum 83236.92
Bold = R2
from
corrected
polynomial
data
* R correlation not avail. for 2017 data
2

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/Bearcub84 (with acknowledgements to those who conducted and analyzed surveys)

Date-
adjusted
95% CI only Date × R2
95% CI Upper R2 (u/XXXmothe Correctio
Lower Limit Limit weighted rboyXXX) n Other calculations from u/SchoolinMedSchoo
226.32 250.91 238.90 237.82 236.20 NBME Ave: R2=0.6842
213.97 258.05 236.01 236.36 236.36 y=0.6361x + 98.626
220.56 253.23 236.66 235.77 236.27 240.69

220.28 254.06 237.19 236.65 236.28 UWSA Ave: R2=0.626

y=0.0047x2-1.54377x+340.86
231.45

Ave of the above 2

236.07

UWSA+NBME Predicted R2 of 0.714 (u/SchoolinM

236.43

es with blue background

cause erroneous calculations. Can leave blank; will then not be included in date-adjusted calculation.

verage calculated in G8. Predictions have remained mostly stable. The

esult in K8). The 2018 data also have calculations based on NBME Ave,
oolinMedSchool). These were calculated separately and is available as
tivation (you can play with numbers to get an idea of how to get to your
ne [results in fields G27:G39] when you put in sample scores above
ethod does not utilize R2.

ED FOR CALCULATIONS
Relevant R2 values for this person Weighted sum by R2
2016 data 2017 data* 2018 data 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data
0.2457 1 0.4726 56.37 221.79 106.75
0.2225 - 0.3612 52.16 - 81.75
0.5499 - - 135.47 - -
0.5429 1 0.4054 133.44 254.90 102.59
0.3559 1 0.433 87.36 247.38 106.60
0.3561 1 0.605 85.34 236.65 145.56
- - - - - -
0.4404 1 0.5831 103.66 231.68 136.90
- 1 0.5368 - 239.08 129.06
0.0452 - 0.302 11.02 - 72.48
0.3805 1 0.5247 91.55 233.32 124.22

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0.4178 1 0.6126 97.10 223.32 140.79
0.4956 - 0.457 114.68 - 106.05 AVERAGE
4.0525 8 5.2934 238.90 236.01 236.66 237.19
*Not avail.

Weighted sum by R2 + date

2016
2017 data 2018 data * 2016 DoT 2017 DoT 2018 DoT 2016 R2 2017 R2 2018 R2 Date×R2
221.79 225.87 1 1 1 0.2457 1 0.4726 56.4
- 16974.38 75 - 75 0.2225 - 0.3612 3912.1
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
17038.66 17323.20 72 72 72 0.3561 1 0.605 6144.1
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
13866.64 13944.94 - 58 58 - 1 0.5368 -
- 18000.00 75 - 75 0.0452 - 0.302 826.5
12599.20 12784.01 54 54 54 0.3805 1 0.5247 4943.9
- - - - - - - - -
- 16939.80 73 - 73 0.4956 - 0.457 8371.7
43726.29 96192.20 350 185 408 1.7456 4.0000 3.2593 24254.7

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 Calculations

from u/SchoolinMedSchool:

cted R2 of 0.714 (u/SchoolinMedSchool)

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 Calculations

Weighted sum by R2 + date correction

2016 2017 2018
2017 2018 Correctio Correctio Correction
Date×R2 Date×R2 n Factor n Factor Factor
221.8 106.7 0.2457 1 0.4726
- 6131.1 16.6875 - 27.09
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
17038.7 10480.5 25.6392 72 43.56
- - - - -
- - - - -
13866.6 7485.6 - 58 31.1344
- 5436.0 3.39 - 22.65
12599.2 6707.8 20.547 54 28.3338
- - - - -
- 7741.5 36.1788 - 33.361
43726.3 44089.3 102.69 185.00 186.60

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Version Date User
1.0 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84

1.1 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84

1.2 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84
1.3 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84

1.4 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84

1.5 2/13/2019 u/Bearcub84

1.6 2/24/2019 u/Bearcub84

Comments
First version of the sheet released. Still needs an updated formula from
u/SchoolinMedSchool for UWSA2 for 2018 data before it is complete.
-u/Bearcub84
First bug found: average G8:J8 were being calculated without the 2018 data.
Fixed
Average NBME calculated incorrectly field M6; fixed.
Added in u/XXXmotherboyXXX 's method of adjusting for test order. In this case,
I used date of test as the variable instead of the order. Currently does not
incorporate R2 values.

Was finally able to get both Date × R2 Correction incorporated.

u/Noobencephalon notified me of a bug in 2018 Uworld % correct calculation
whereby it would calculate a score even if nothing was entered. Fixed.
Added in a 2nd order polynomial formula for UWSA2 based on Excel analysis of
the raw data; still waiting on the official one.