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International Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 13, No.

2
© International Epidemiological Association 1984 Printed in Great Britain

Changing Trends in Dental Caries


AUBREY SHEIHAM

Sheiham A (The Dental School, University College London, Mortimer Market, London WC1E6JD). Changing trends in
dental caries. International Journal of Epidemiology 1984; 13: 142-147.
In underdeveloped countries the number of dental caries is increasing at a frightening rate whereas in industrialized
countries the caries rate has declined by about 40% in the past 10 years. In 1982, for the first time ever, the average
12-year-old in underdeveloped countries, where 80% of the world's children live, had a higher dental caries score
(decayed, missing, filled—DMF) than those in industrialized countries. The increase in caries is associated with
increases in sugar consumption. By 1984, sugar consumption in underdeveloped countries is predicted to exceed that

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of industrialized countries. The decline in caries is associated with the widespread availability of fluoride toothpaste,
changes in the pattern and quantity of sugar consumption and possibly with the frequent use of antibiotics. The
declines have been greater in areas with fluoridated water supplies. The trends in rates of dental caries have important
public health implications. They include the urgent need for a food policy to limit the consumption of refined sugars,
policies to ensure the availability of fluoride, a reduction in the number of dentists in industrialized countries, the greater
use of dental therapists and increasing the interval between dental check-ups to two years or more.

For the first time ever, the frequency of dental caries is DENTAL CARIES IN INDUSTRIALIZED
greater among children in Third World countries than COUNTRIES
in industrialized countries. Figures from the World Dental caries were uncommon in Western industrial-
Health Organization dental data bank showed that the ized countries such as England before 1850.4-5
average number of teeth with caries per 12-year-old Thereafter the caries rate increased rapidly due mainly
child as assessed by the DMF index (D = decayed, to the rise in sugar consumption from 19 lb/person/
M = missing, F = filled) was 4.1 for Third World year in 1850 to 90 lb/person/year in 1900. The increase
countries in 1982 and 3.3 for industrialized countries. in prevalence and severity was interrupted by the two
Twenty years ago the index was less than 1 DMF- World Wars. Most countries with food rationing
teeth for most underdeveloped countries and as high as experienced decreases of approximately 35% in the
10 DMF-teeth for developed countries.1 The change severity of caries during World War II.6'7 After the war
in pattern of dental caries is well illustrated by dental caries increased reaching a peak in the 1960s.8
comparing the disease severity in two contrasting cities Since the early 1970s there has been a compound
—Boston, Massachusetts and Bangkok. In 1960 the annual reduction ranging from 4.3"% in Scottish 5-6-
DMF in 12-year-olds was 12.3 in Massachusetts and year-olds to 16.7% in Finnish 6-year-olds. Among 11-
0.6 in Bangkok. There has been a marked decline in and 12-year-olds the annual reduction rates were 3.8%
caries in Massachusetts in the past 20 years; the most in The Hague and in Shropshire, England; 4.8% in
recent DMF index was 3.5 at 12 years.2 Bangkok Denmark; 5.1% In the USA; 5.0% in Bristol and
children have experienced a deterioration in their 8.7% in Finland.9
dental status since 1960; in 1982, the DMF was 4.4, a The decline in caries has not been as dramatic in
sevenfold increase.3 adults as in children because caries are mainly a disease
The objective of this article is to review the current of childhood and the reductions in children will only
trends in dental caries, the possible reasons for these be reflected in adults in the next ten years. Nevertheless
trends and the implications for the prevention and reductions in caries in young adults have been
treatment of the disease. reported.10 In England, the greatest decline has
occurred in those adults attending dentists only when
in pain."
The decreases in dental caries in Western countries
Department of Community Dental Health and Dental Practice, The
are encouraging but they should be considered against
Dental School, School of Medicine, University College London, a background of high levels of disease in the 1960s.
Mortimer Market, London WC1E 6JD, UK. And, despite the decreases, the prevalence of dental
142
CHANGING TRENDS IN DENTAL CARIES 143
caries is still unacceptably high and in some countries The reduced intake of sucrose in infants does affect
little or no decline has occurred. For example, in the numbers of cariogenic bacteria and the incidence
England and Wales, where there has been a reduction of caries.20'21
of about 50% in the proportions of children aged 6 There are no reliable data on the per capita sucrose
and 7 years and a decrease in the DMF of 1.5 per child consumption among children during the 1970s.
between 1973 and 1983, 8 out of 10 children aged Children under 16 years of age constitute about one-
10-13 and 9 out of 10 children aged 14-15 had fifth of the total population. So a 25% reduction in
experienced caries. The 15-year-olds still had about six sugar consumption in that age group would result in a
teeth attacked by caries—about 20% of their teeth.12 decrease of only 5% of the national average.22 In
Within the UK there are large differences between Britain the sucrose consumption has decreased by
countries in the levels of dental caries and it appears about 20% in the past 15 years; most of the decrease
that the decline in caries has not been marked in has occurred since 1974. In the USA, although total
Scotland and Northern Ireland. Among 15-year-olds sugar consumption has increased since 1965, sucrose
in England the DMF was 5.6 compared with 6.7 consumption has decreased markedly since 1971.2 The

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among 15-year-olds in Wales, 8.5 in Scottish and 9.2 in sugars being consumed more commonly in the USA
Northern Ireland 15-year-olds.12 So the decay are the monosaccharides glucose and fructose.
experience in 15-year-olds in Northern Ireland in 1983 Fructose is less cariogenic than sucrose.
is similar to the levels reported in England in 1973. Sucrose consumption has not decreased significantly
There are a number of industrialized countries in some of the countries where declines in dental caries
where decreases in dental caries are not occurring. have been recorded but the high levels of sucrose
These include Poland, German Democratic Republic, consumption in those countries is on the plateau
Bulgaria, Russia, Hungary, Italy, Spain and section of the S-shaped dose-response curve which
Austria.13'14 represents the sugar/caries relationship.15 At those
What are the probable reasons for the marked levels of sucrose, the pattern of consumption is more
decline in dental caries in most Western industrialized important than the amount.
countries? No single factor has been found to account
for the decline and the most likely explanation is that a Fluoride
combination of factors is responsible. Dental caries are Fluoride in toothpaste has undoubtedly contributed
a sugar-dependent infective disease.15 The demineral- significantly to the reduction in dental caries.22'23
izing effect of the cariogenic challenge can be Fluoride toothpastes are not widely available in
prevented or reduced depending on the strength of the countries such as Russia and the German Democratic
challenge and the availability of fluoride at the site of Republic which have not experienced a decline in
attack.16 Fluoride reduces the enamel's solubility in dental caries. In the UK fluoride toothpaste sales were
acid and it influences the remineralization of lesions as 4% in 1970, 16% in 1971 and reached 95% of total
well as the metabolism of the oral bacteria.17 Some toothpaste sales in 1977.23 Fluoride toothpastes have
authors believe that the main mechanism whereby been shown to be effective in reducing caries in
fluoride acts in caries prevention is in promoting teenagers. The use of a fluoride toothpaste from an
remineralization.18 early age ensures that a high intra-oral level of fluoride
The factors to consider in relation to the decline in is present when the teeth erupt into the mouth. At that
caries are sugar consumption, fluorides in toothpaste, stage the teeth are more caries-susceptible and the
fluoride-rinsing, systemic fluoride, improved oral therapeutic effect of fluoride is greater. In addition,
hygiene and the use of antibiotics. fluoride may interfere with the metabolism, transmis-
sion and implantation of cariogenic organisms.
Diet Declines in caries have occurred in areas without
Dietary changes and in particular changes in the water-fluoridation but in areas with water fluorida-
pattern of sucrose consumption have been reported tion, the declines have been more marked than in non-
from a number of countries. One of the important fluoride areas. In the US, children aged 5-17 years
changes in diet has been the increase in breast-feeding, examined in the 1979-80 national dental caries survey,
a reduction in the number of parents adding sugars to who had a continuous history of water fluoride
bottle feeds, a reduction in the use of sweetened exposure had 33% fewer carious surfaces than children
comforters19 and changes in the composition of baby without water fluoride exposure.24 Most of the
formula feeds and of processed baby foods. A wider children in the survey were using fluoride toothpaste so
variety of sugar free and low-sugar foods are available. the reduction in water fluoride areas was in addition to
144 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

the reduction from the fluoride toothpaste. Additional populations followed by changes in disease prevalence
benefits from water fluoride were also reported in in the rural groups. The influence of social class is
England between 1970 and 1980. Children in Birming- strong.30-31 In Ethiopia, children from more affluent
ham (fluoridated) experienced a reduction of 54% high social class families had four times more caries in
compared to a 32% reduction in non-fluoridated primary teeth than poorer children and twice as many
Dudley.25 permanent teeth with caries.31
Fluoride supplements such as fluoride tablets and Urbanized populations in underdeveloped countries
drops, and professionally applied topical fluoride may are more likely to consume refined sugars than those in
have been responsible for a very small amount of the rural areas. Therefore it is not surprising that caries
decline. In most countries where declines have been rates are higher in urban populations. In the Sudan,
reported, such as England, Ireland, Holland, these 15-19-year-old urban children had seven times more
measures have not been widely used. The additional caries than children, in rural areas where the sugar
effect of professionally applied fluoride and fluoride consumption was below 5 lbs/person/year.32
in toothpaste is not clinically significant.26 Neither is Deteriorating dental health is seen as a necessary

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there unequivocal evidence that fluoride-rinsing, a consequence of a certain kind of economic growth
widely used measure in Scandinavian countries and in because a change to a more refined high-sugar diet is
the US, has any additional effect when children are associated with economic growth. Sugar consumption
using a fluoride toothpaste.27 Marthaler22 using data in underdeveloped countries is rising; by 1984
from Zurich has attempted to estimate the proportion consumption is predicted to be higher than in indus-
of the decline in caries which can be ascribed to trialized countries where consumption is falling.33
fluoride. In Zurich, fluoridated salt (250 ppm), super- Industrialized countries are decreasing their imports of
vised toothbrushing with fluoride and fluoride "tooth- sugar from underdeveloped countries; many of these
paste are used. He estimated the total effect of fluoride are sugar-producers and are now consuming four-
in all forms in reducing the Decayed + Filled Surfaces fifths of what they produce. Previously they exported
(DFS) from 26.3 to 11.8 to be in the range of 44-55%. four-fifths of production. In addition to local produc-
tion, in some underdeveloped countries, sugar is the
Oral Hygiene second largest food item imported.
There is no unequivocal evidence that toothbrushing The importation and export of sugar is regulated
and good oral cleanliness reduces caries experience.28 mainly by the International Sugar Agreement (ISA).35
The weight of evidence is that improvements in oral One of the objectives of the 1977 ISA is: 'To increase
hygiene, which has occurred in the past decade, is not sugar consumption and in particular to promote
a significant factor in the reduction of caries.23 measures to encourage consumption in countries
where per capita consumption is low.' The potential
Antibiotics for promoting the consumption of sugar is greater in
Antibiotics are widely used both therapeutically and in underdeveloped countries because they are low sugar
animal husbandry. Loesche, Eckland and Burt29 consumers and most developed countries have either
found an inverse relationship between caries experi- reached saturation levels of sugar consumption or
ence and antibiotic usage in children. The present switched to sugar substitutes.
generation of children have been exposed more
intensively to antibiotics than their predecessors.2 The Sugar Availability and Dental Caries
anti-bacterial action of some antibiotics and the Numerous studies have shown that populations who
increased caries resistance of teeth affected by tetra- have changed their diet from locally available agri-
cycline suggests that antibiotics may play an important cultural products to one containing manufactured and
unintended role in decreasing dental caries in children processed foods, particularly those containing sugar,
eating less sucrose and using fluoride toothpaste. have experienced increases in dental caries.36
Wilska37 was the first to analyse the relationship
DENTAL CARIES IN UNDERDEVELOPED between per capita sugar consumption and caries rates;
COUNTRIES he found a strong positive relationship. Buttner,38 who
The pattern of dental caries in underdeveloped studied the relationship based on data from 19
countries is following the pattern of the disease which countries, reached a similar conclusion. More recently
was observed in Europe in the 18th and 19th Sreebny39 found a highly significant relationship
centuries.4'5 An increase in the prevalence and severity, between availability of sugar and DMF in 47 countries.
first in the upper income groups then in the urbanized The linear regression had the form y = 0.06 +0.04 x
CHANGING TRENDS IN DENTAL CARIES 145
40
(r = 0.72). Narendran repeated Sreebny's analysis but IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION AND
limited his analysis to underdeveloped countries; a TREATMENT
highly significant correlation (r = 0.54) was found. In The main conclusions that can be drawn from the
addition, Narendran analysed the relationship between different trends in industrialized and underdeveloped
sugar availability and caries in countries which had countries are:
experienced increases in dental caries. Of 20 countries
where two surveys had been conducted on 12-year- 1. Sugars are implicated as the principal cause of
olds, 15 have recorded marked increases in caries.13 dental caries. To achieve further improvements in
Examples of increases in DMF are; from 2.8 to 6.3 in dental health in industrialized countries and prevent
Chile, 2.7 to 5.3 in four years in Mexico, 0.2 to 2.7 in the increase in caries in underdeveloped countries,
Jordan, 1.2 to 3.6 in Lebanon, 0.6 to 4.4 in Thailand a food policy directed at achieving an annual per
and 4.7 to 9.8 in the Philippines.41 capita sugar intake of 10 kg or less in areas without
water fluoride or fluoride toothpastes is needed.46
The average annual per capita sugar consumption In areas with fluoride, 15 kg of sugar/person/year
level increased in underdeveloped countries from will ensure a low prevalence of dental caries.15

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22.3 kg in 1968 to 27.4 kg in 1981.*° African countries
had the largest increase—39% in annual per capita 2. Water fluoridation should be encouraged. Where
consumption over that period, Asia had an increase of this is not feasible for practical or political reasons,
24% whilst Latin American countries showed an salt fluoridation should be considered. In areas
increase of 21%. with optimal and sub-optimal levels of fluoride in
All the countries where the DMF had increased had the drinking water, toothpastes should contain
increases in mean per capita sugar consumption. Those fluoride. Other topical applications are not reconi-
countries where the dental caries rate had decreased mended when large percentages of children are
had, with the exception of Fiji, reduced their sugar using fluoride toothpaste.
consumption. They were Uganda—DMF reduced 3. Because the rate of progression of dental caries is
from 2.4 to 1.5 and sugar consumption from 8.3 to generally very slow and the rate is even slower at the
1.2 kg; Cuba—DMF reduced from 5.6 to 4.8 and sugar levels of caries being experienced in most industrial-
from 66.6 to 56.9 kg; and Sri Lanka where the DMF ized and underdeveloped countries, the intervals
decreased from 3.0 to 1.9 and sugar consumption from between dental check-ups should be increased to
18.5 to 8.3. These data support the findings from two years for teenagers and to even longer intervals
detailed studies which suggest that the dose-response for adults. There is no scientific basis for six-
relationship between sugar and caries approximates an monthly intervals between dental examinations.48
S-shaped curve. The curve rises more steeply when 4. Many fewer dentists than exist at present will be
sucrose containing foods are eaten frequently by needed in industrialized countries in future. Dental
young children with newly erupted teeth. When the caries which do occur can easily be treated by dental
frequency of ingestion is low and the teeth are more therapists. In future more therapists and fewer
mature (beyond four years post-eruption) the curve dentists, to deal with the more complicated
rises more gradually and does not reach the same problems, will be required.
height as the high frequency curve.15-43'44 Takeuchi44 5. There are about 1500 million children in the world
claims that the dose-response relationship holds up to under the age of 15 years; 80% of them are in
35 kg/person/year. Beyond that level the curve underdeveloped countries. Every increase of 1.0 in
flattens. Takeuchi showed that for increases in sugar the DMF would require about 200 dental operators
consumption from 0.2 to 15 kg/person/year, the
per million children. Even if the trend in dental
annual caries incidence rate was positively correlated
caries is halted, there will be a need for 1000000
with sugar consumption (r= +0.8). The rate of attack
dental personnel compared to the present 200000.
increased at sugar levels above 10 kg/person/year.
If the trend is not arrested, the need for dental
And there was a further increase in the intensity of the
attack at consumption levels of 15-21 kg/person/ personnel will be much greater.49 The cost of train-
year.45-46 At annual levels of consumption below 15 kg, ing and employing such a dental workforce is
most sugar consumed is visible sugar. Beyond that beyond the educational or financial capabilities of
level an increasing percentage of sugar consumed is in most underdeveloped countries. Therefore,
more cariogenic manufactured products such as soft primary prevention aimed at controlling the avail-
drinks, sweets and biscuits.47 ability of refined sugars and sugar containing
foods, drinks and sweets is needed.
6. The effectiveness of dental health education will be
146 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
greatly enhanced if sugar control, sensible use of Nordisk Odontologisk Forening 66th Annual Meeting,
fluoride and oral cleanliness to reduce periodontal Stockholm, 1983, Abstract 24.
21
Kohler B. Studies on the spread and prevention of Streptococcus
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22
Marthaler T M. Explanations for changing patterns of disease in
the Western World. In: Cariology Today. B Guggenheim (ed).
Basel, Karger, 1984, 13-23.
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