Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
METODOS PROBABILISTICOS
Tutor
RICHARD LEON TORO
INGENIERIA INDUSTRIAL
20000
15000
Unidades
10000
5000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Periodo
5000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Periodo
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Periodo
β
0.210526316 Demanda real vs Demanda
25000
α
0.10526 20000
15000
Unidades
10000
5000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
15000
Unidades
10000
5000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Periodo
PRONOSTICO (Unidades)
𝐴𝑏�(𝑏𝑡)
at (bt) Ft
16402 0
16726.4986149584 18.027700831 16402.00 18.03
16317.8063857705 -5.6789619478 16744.53 5.68
16059.6033946946 -19.7080746771 16312.13 19.71
15775.6502700417 -34.3883552314 16039.90 34.39
15299.2373777845 -58.945273955 15741.26 58.95
15061.3307978025 -68.8875687343 15240.29 68.89
14652.4988731322 -87.7733662863 14992.44 87.77
14078.5309459237 -114.7841752264 14564.73 114.78
15147.7086336053 -49.008516176 13963.75 49.01
14201.0535566124 -98.8777695547 15098.70 98.88
13655.9800622152 -123.6664209348 14102.18 123.67
12896.6167377563 -158.9829155751 13532.31 158.98
13465.0863562615 -118.5688859039 12737.63 118.57
13371.7439028624 -117.1674174314 13346.52 117.17
13662.5279897217 -94.5034449708 13254.58 94.50
13699.6539984294 -87.1906975443 13568.02 87.19
14393.2019223152 -43.816329687 13612.46 43.82
11487.4582722148 -202.8122919322 14349.39
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Periodo
COSTO DE
PREPARACION COSTO DE
DEMANDA FUTURA TIEMPO DE ESPERA POR PEDIDO RETENCION
REFERENCIA (periodica) (dias) ($) UNITARIO ($)
a. DEMANDA PERIODICA
PROYECTADA EJERCICIO 1
DISPOSITIVO MODELO DE PRONOSTICO
DE SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL 9 $2,065,821 $6,515
ILUMINACION SIMPLE b.
DEMANDA PERIODICA
PROYECTADA EJERCICIO 1
MODELO DE PRONOSTICO
SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
DOBLE
$20,344
α
al simple ) 0.05
Desviacion Existencias
Demanda diaria Varianza tipica de reserva
Nivel de
inventario
µ (Dt/30- Dd) (Dt/30- Dd)2 σ2 σ B optimo
517.1707154948 55.995951172 3135.546548 1231.152076 35.0877767 519.5 5174.0
517.1707154948 50.431038891 2543.289684
517.1707154948 52.948305742 2803.523081
517.1707154948 40.866729225 1670.089558 Existencias de reserva
517.1707154948 32.627851377 1064.576685
517.1707154948 24.332646245 592.0776733
517.1707154948 12.288405609 151.0049124
517.1707154948 5.5127241758 30.39012784
517.1707154948 -4.742491751 22.49122801 Nivel de inventario
517.1707154948 -18.45783575 340.6917007
517.1707154948 2.7758232729 7.705194843
517.1707154948 -18.55766498 344.3869294
517.1707154948 -31.4664662 990.1384952 Cuando α =0,05 z= 1,64 o 1,65
517.1707154948 -49.03999798 2404.921402 Kα= 1,65+1,64/2=1,645
517.1707154948 -38.53112359 1484.647485
517.1707154948 -41.98011832 1762.330334
517.1707154948 -37.23446301 1386.405236
517.1707154948 -37.76931412 1426.521089
α
al doble ) 0.05
Desviacion Existencias
Demanda diaria Varianza tipica de reserva
Nivel de
inventario
µ (Dt/30- Dd) (Dt/30- Dd)2 σ2 σ B optimo
488.1533506424 58.579982691 3431.614372 1584.992739 39.8119673 589.4 4982.8
488.1533506424 69.997526551 4899.653723
488.1533506424 55.584230152 3089.606642
488.1533506424 46.509826692 2163.163979 Existencias de reserva
488.1533506424 36.555379851 1336.295796
488.1533506424 19.856386152 394.276071
488.1533506424 11.594756993 134.4383897
488.1533506424 -2.662500414 7.088908455
488.1533506424 -22.69512495 515.0686966 Nivel de inventario
488.1533506424 15.136653272 229.1182723
488.1533506424 -18.08082441 326.9162112
488.1533506424 -37.07622927 1374.646777
488.1533506424 -63.56555657 4040.579982 Cuando α =0,05 z= 1,64 o 1,65
488.1533506424 -43.26943496 1872.244002 Kα= 1,65+1,64/2=1,645
488.1533506424 -46.33413446 2146.852016
488.1533506424 -35.88586582 1287.795365
488.1533506424 -34.40457395 1183.674708
488.1533506424 -9.840497555 96.83539213
Referencias Bibliográficas
es (pp.1014-1027).