Journal of Hydrology, 148 (1993) 231-248 231

0022-1694/93/$06.00 © 1993 - Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. All rights reserved

[31

Rainfall-runoff modelling and water resources

assessment in northwestern Ivory Coast. Tentative
extension to ungauged catchments.

Eric Servat *'a, Alain Dezetter b

aAntenne Hydrologique ORSTOM, 06 BP 1203 CIDEX 1, Abidjan 06, Ivory Coast
bCentre ORSTOM de Guadeloupe, BP 1020, 97178 Pointe ~ Pitre CEDE)(. Guadeloupe
(Received 9 November 1992; revision accepted 8 January 1993)

Abstract
Most developmentprojects in northern Ivory Coast require good water resourcemanagement. Rain-
fall-runoff modelling was performed in 20 catchments (100-4500 km2) to provide reliable tools for the
assessment of water supply in the sudanese savannah area. After the calibration of two conceptualmodels
(GR3 and CREC), the parameters were characterizedso that these models could be applied to ungauged
catchments. Predeterminationequationswereestablished using variablesrelated to the catchmentland use
and the rainfall distribution over the year. The GR3 model produced good results although further work
is needed to improve the reliability of the equations before operational use.

Introduction

A m a i n aim o f the d e v e l o p m e n t projects in the n o r t h e r n I v o r y C o a s t

(irrigation perimeters, d r i n k a b l e w a t e r supply, onchocerciasis c o n t r o l . . . ) is to
restrain the d e p a r t u r e o f the rural p o p u l a t i o n to the big u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s
o f the c e n t r e ( B o u a k e ) a n d s o u t h e r n ( A b i d j a n ) parts o f the c o u n t r y . This can
be achieved b y d e v e l o p i n g agriculture a n d i m p r o v i n g living c o n d i t i o n s in
these p o o r e r regions.
M o s t o f these projects, especially the agricultural r e s t r u c t u r i n g a n d inten-
sification p r o g r a m m e s , require g o o d m a n a g e m e n t o f n a t u r a l (mainly w a t e r )
resources.
In this perspective, r a i n f a l l - r u n o f f m o d e l l i n g was p e r f o r m e d in the

* Corresponding author.
232 E. Servat and A. Dezetter Journal oJ Hydrology 148 ~1993~ 231-24~'

Mali
Burkina Faso
10 '~ ~Odienn¢- '
Guinea' K?rhogo;

5"t ~ I v o r y C o ~ ( Ghana
Liberia ) ~1~ ,,,~

Gulf of Guinea

10 ° 5" o

Fig. I. Location map of the study area.

sudanese savannah zone (Fig. l). Twenty catchments of the upper Niger,
Bandama and Sassandra basins, in northwestern Ivory Coast, were studied.
The area of the catchments ranged from 100 to 4500 km 2.
Daily data from the national hydrological networks of the Ivory Coast were
used: these are the only data available for engineers to conceive a project and
perform long term simulations.
The main aim of this study was to provide reliable tools for rainfall-runoff
modelling to provide a good estimate of the water discharge at the outlet of
the catchment at a monthly or 10-daily time step. To enable these models to
be applied to ungauged catchments, predetermination equations of the
parameters were investigated, based on physiography and climate variables.

Study catchments, data and models

Catchments and data

The streams of the 20 selected catchments exhibit a single annual

hydrograph peak, with a maximum in August or September, resulting from
a single rainy season usually lasting from June to October.
Most of the data used relate to the late 1970s and the 1980s up to 1985 or
1986. This period is characterized by high annual rainfall variability. For the
Yani basin at Madji, for example, the annual rainfall ranged from 879 mm in
1983 (a drought with a return period of about 50 years in the whole country),
to 1559 m m in 1981. Consequently, the annual discharge was also very
variable: 21.8 and 164.9 mm, for the same catchment, in 1983 and 1981,
respectively.
E. Servat and A. Dezener / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 233

In all the catchments, the runoff coefficients were very low, less than 10%
on average, with a maximum of 20% and a minimum of 0.5%.
The main characteristics of the catchments are presented in Table 1. The
land use is very different from one catchment to another. The housing density
is very low: the maximum value of 4.4% in the Lafigue catchment is due to
the town of Korhogo. The location of this important town in the catchment
also explains the high percentage (64.5%) of cultivated areas. In the other
catchments, the land use proportions range from 55.7 to 95.9 of savannah, 0
to 24.3% of thin forest, and 0.3 to 44.0% of cultivated areas. The percentage
of housing is always low and not significant.
Maps derived from satellite images were drawn for all but four of the
catchments where the data were not available (Servat and Lapetite, 1990).

Rainfall-runoff models

Two global, conceptual and deterministic models were used in this study,
the CREC model (Guilbot, 1986), and the GR3 model (Edijatno and Michel,
1989). Like many of those models, most of their parameters do not indicate
an obvious physical reality.

The CREC model

The CREC model is based on a fairly classical storage structure, with
clearly identified production and routing functions. This model has been
widely applied, mainly in temperate areas: it demonstrated a high adaptability.
The seven-parameter version of CREC is presented in Fig. 2 where the j
subscript is for the daily time step.
The loss function is controlled by three parameters, X3, X4 and X7. A
'cul-de-sac' reservoir S simulates the soil moisture and is subject to evapo-
transpiration. Real evapotranspiration (RET) is calculated from potential
evapotranspiration (PET) (cf. Fig. 2). This reservoir controls the proportion
of rainfall contributing to runoff via the routing modulus.
The routing function comprises two reservoirs: a 'surface' reservoir H,
controlled by three parameters, X1, X5 and X6; and a 'deep' reservoir G
controlled by X2.
The H reservoir has two outputs. The first one allows quick flows to be
simulated and is controlled by X1, following the equation:

Qjn = [X1 x Hi] 2 (1)

The second output acts as an input (AGj) to the G reservoir and is

controlled by X5 and X6, which is a threshold below which this output equals
234 E. Servat and .4. Dezetter Journal ol ftydrolo,e~ /4,~ ~1993; 2 3 1 2 4 8

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Z Z Z Z

v 2 ~ g ~ g ~ g g ~ g z z z z

g°~ ~ ~ g ~ - ~ ~

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I [ I I I I I

~J

5 ~o
E. Servat and A, Dezetter / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 235

[ASj=Pj/ (x3*exp(X4* S A H i = Pj - ~s,i

[RETi = PETi * (1 - exp(-Si !

s, -s~, -x6)/x5I
~ _I_ i - i I~c~'(~' Io~-o~+o~I

T
Fig. 2. C o n c e p t u a l d i a g r a m o f t h e C R E C model.

zero. The control equation is:

AGj = (Hj-X6)/(X5) (2)

The G reservoir supplies the baseflow following the equation:

QjC = a'2 x Qj_C +(1 -x2) x AGj (3)

The GR3 model
The GR3 model is also a storage model (Fig. 3) widely applied in temperate
areas (Loumagne, 1988; Edijatno and Michel, 1989; Edijatno, 1991). This
study is one of the first applications of GR3 in the tropical zone.
The structure of the model is based on two reservoirs (a soil moisture
reservoir and a routing reservoir) and a unit hydrograph, which allows a
temporal distribution of the effective rainfall towards the routing reservoir:
(1) the soil moisture reservoir has a maximum capacity of A and a single
output due to evapotranspiration. This reservoir represents the loss function
of the model;
(2) owing to the use of a routing reservoir, Edijatno and Michel (1989)
proposed to use a very simple unit hydrograph depending on only one
parameter, C, which can be considered as the catchment intrinsic time to peak;
(3) the routing reservoir is described by the B parameter representing the
'maximum 1-day retention'; the input to this reservoir is the discharge
supplied by the unit hydrograph; The level of the reservoir, R, controls the
236 E. Servat and A. Dezetter /Journal c~! H.vdrology I48 1993) 231-248

Pj

] Ep 1
Potential
Evapotranspiration

Ep or vk E' if P'=ll
Rainfall

P' = Max(0,Pj-Ep)

E'=E 1 ~ k2 p'

Soil Unit hydrograph

moisture depending on only ©
reservoir @ one parameter
capacity

Maximum 1 day retention of

the routing reservoir (~)

R2
Discharge = - -
R+B

Fig. 3. C o n c e p t u a l d i a g r a m o f the G R 3 model.

discharge, Q, following the equation:

O = R2/(R+B) (4)

This equation derives from the integration over the time step, t, of the
quadratic relationship (Edijatno and Michel, 1989):

dR
- ~R 2 (5)
dt

Methods

Servat and Dezetter (1991) have previously shown that a modified Nash
function (cf. Eq. (6)) (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970) is the one which enables the
E. Servat and d. Dezetter / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 237

best model calibrations in a sudanese savannah area.

nL
Z( o-Lo):
I
n (6)
E(Lo
1

where n is the number of observations, L¢ the computed discharge (mm), Lo

the observed discharge (ram), and /S the mean observed discharge (mm),
Therefore this objective function was used here for the automatic calibration
procedures. Using the Rosenbrock (1960) and Nelder and Mead (1964)
procedures, the CREC and GR3 models were calibrated year by year at a
daily time step for each of the 91 station-years available (Dezetter, 1991). This
approach was chosen to increase the number of calibrated parameter sets to
analyse. This implies that the successive years are considered as independent.
This assumption is valid in the northwestern Ivory Coast because the dry
season is prolonged and severe: the streams often dry up.
An analysis of the calibration results and a 'cross validation procedure'
were performed to assess the behaviour of the modds and the quality of the
simulated hydrographs. The analysis used an assessment modulus comprising
seven hydrological criteria (Servat and Dezetter, 1991) to complement the
visual comparison of the simulated and observed hydrographs.
Some graphs and computations of the assessment modulus used a 10-day
time step, considered here as the basic time step for the interpretation of the
results.
The criteria used in the modulus are the following.
(1) The correlation coefficient between the 10-day observed and simulated
discharges;
(2) the deviations of the first and second order autocorrelation coefficients;
(3) two coefficients of assessment of the budget on a volume basis, namely:

Budgetl = ~(L o - L c ) (7)

Budget2 = ~ ( L o - L c ) I (8)

where n is the number of observations, L¢ the 10-day computed discharge

(mm), and Lo the 10-day observed discharge (mm). Budgetl and Budget2 tend
to zero when L¢ tends to Lo;
(4) the index of reconstitution of the flood volume (IRVC), i.e. the
difference between the calculated and the observed flood volume, in percent
238 E. Servat and A. l)ezetter Journal ol Hydrolo< 14S ~' 19931 231-248

Table 2
Calibration results tbr the CREC model

10 day DACI" DAC2 ~ Bilanl Bilan2 IRVC Daily' Daily

correlation Nash correlation

Mean (1.943 0.094 0. 112 5.79 33.68 3.58 (I.204 0.887

SD (1.059 0.1117 {).1(17 7.06 25.01 3.78 0 . 1 6 3 0.103
Minimum 0.574 0.001 0.001 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.020 0.345
Maximum 0.996 0.524 0.551 52.00 131.60 19.44 0.936 0.991

"DAC1. order I autocorrelation difference; bDAC2. order 2 autocorrelation difference,

o f the o b s e r v e d flood v o l u m e : I R V C m u s t tend to 0: here, the flood v o l u m e

was c o n s i d e r e d as the d e p t h o f r u n o f f b e t w e e n 1 July a n d 31 O c t o b e r :
(5) the m o d i f i e d N a s h criterion, t e n d i n g to zero for g o o d s i m u l a t i o n s :
(6) the c o r r e l a t i o n coefficient b e t w e e n the daily o b s e r v e d a n d s i m u l a t e d
discharges.
T h e possibility o f e x t e n d i n g the results to u n g a u g e d c a t c h m e n t s was then
investigated. R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n the c a l i b r a t e d p a r a m e t e r s a n d v a r i a b l e s
describing the h y d r o l o g y a n d the p h y s i o g r a p h y o f the c a t c h m e n t s were estab-
lished a n d tested.

Results

M o d e l calibrations

T h e C R E C a n d G R 3 m o d e l s were c a l i b r a t e d for the 9t s t a t i o n - y e a r s .

T a b l e s 2 a n d 3 p r e s e n t the statistical results o f the different m o d u l u s
components.
T h e C R E C m o d e l p r o d u c e d g o o d q u a l i t y results. T h e m e a n I R V C is less
t h a n 4 a n d the m a x i m u m I R V C is less t h a n 20, indicating a g o o d r e c o n s t i t u -
tion o f the flood v o l u m e s . T h e high c o r r e l a t i o n coefficients c o n f i r m t h a t

Table
Calibra0on results lbr the GR3 model

10 day D A C I :' DAC2 b Bilan I Bilan2 IRVC Daily Daily

correlation Nash correlation

Mean 0.919 0.093 0.135 9.84 40.64 5.57 0.228 0.873

SD 0.089 0.105 0.128 8.47 25.82 6.51 0.172 0.114
Minimum 0.346 0,000 0.00l 0.10 1.70 0.00 0.026 0.230
Maximum (/.994 0.560 0,587 39.90 110.70 4 1 . 5 2 1,002 0.988

" DACI, order I autocorrelation difference: ~'DAC2, order 2 autocorrelalion difference,

E. Servat and A. Dezetter / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 239

CREC applies satisfactorily to the catchments. This is corroborated by a Nash

criterion being less than 0.1 in 34% of the cases. However, this criterion
exhibits ten values above 0.4 (10.9% of the cases), nearly all corresponding to
years 1983 and 1984.
In spite of the small number of parameters, the GR3 model reproduces
adequately the observed hydrographs: the mean IRVC is 5.57, the daily and
10-day correlation coefficients are high, and the Nash criterion is less than 0.1
in 27.5 % of the cases. Again, high values of this criterion are obtained for the
years 1983 and 1984, which were exceptionally dry over the whole Ivorian
territory. This type of event appears to be virtually impossible to simulate with
the models used here.
The parameter set obtained after calibration for a given catchment was
systematically validated on the other years available for the catchment. This
procedure, called here 'cross validation', was assessed using three criteria:
10-day correlation, IRVC, and Nash criterion (Dezetter, 1991). On the whole,
the cross validation gave good results in only 10% of the cases: the calibrated
parameters seem specific for a given station-year. This implies that the calibra-
tions of the conceptual models used here do not depend only on the physical
features of the catchments. The features of the climate, the land use and the
vegetation for each year and each catchment play an important part and have
to be taken into account to explain the parameter values of the models.

Multivar&te analysis

A selection was made among the 91 station-years to get the most homoge-
neous population possible with respect to the data quality. The four
catchments where the land use maps were not available and other catchments
for which data quality was questionable were set aside.
The remaining 59 station-years and the corresponding CREC and GR3
parameters were subjected to a multivariate analysis including correlation
analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and factor analysis.
The following variables were used to try to explain the calibrated parameter
values:
(a) catchment variables: area, 'Gravelius' compactness coefficient (Roche,
1963);
(b) year variables: annual rainfall (ram); cumulative rainfall (mm) from 1
January to 15 June (PC6), 15 July (PCT), 15 August (PC8), 15 September
(PC9) and 15 August (PC 10); relative rainfall (%), i.e. the ratio of cumulative
rainfall PCx to annual rainfall, for the same dates;
(c) land use variables: proportion of savannah, thin forest, cultivated and
housing areas which vary from catchment to catchment.
240 E. Servat and A. Dezetter Journal ~/ Hydrolog) /4,~' ~ 1993 ~ 231-248

Except the trivial relationships due to the definition of the variables (e.g.
PC 10 is strongly correlated with annual rainfall), the correlation matrix shows
hardly any clear linear relationship between the model parameters and the
selected variables. The exception is the B parameter of GR3 (i.e. the maximum
1 day retention) being correlated with the annual rainfall (r = 0.54). Neither
could any simple non-linear relationship be underscored.
The PCA axes are rather weakly defined: the first three axes explain only
69.7% of the variance. The first component (34.3 % of the variance) is strongly
correlated with the cumulative rainfall variables (r = 0.96 and r = 0.93 with
PC7 and PC8, respectively). The second component (17.9% of the variance)
has no clear definition. The third component (17.4% of the variance) shows
the opposition between the 'natural' (savannah, forest) and anthropogenic
land uses (housing, agriculture).
Used as supplementary variables in this analysis, the parameters of the loss
function of CREC (X3, X4 and X7) tend to be correlated with the second axis
while the parameters of the routing function are correlated with the first and
the third axes. These correlations are weak: the maximum r value is 0.45
between )(3 and the second axis.
Concerning GR3, the best correlation is observed between parameter B and
the first axis (r = 0.60), which corroborates the results of the correlation
matrix study. Parameter A is correlated with the second axis with a coefficient
r = 0.50. These results are slightly better than in the case of CREC. This is
due to the GR3 structure and its small number of parameters: each parameter
has a more marked effect and is really independent of the others.
The results of the factor analysis only confirm these conclusions.

Multiple regression equations

To explain the parameter values by means of multiple regression equations

would enable the determination a priori--or 'pre-determination'--of these
parameter values and therefore the application of the model to ungauged
catchments. To this purpose, the 59 station-years were split into a 39-
individual calibration subsample and a 20-individual validation subsample.
The equations were computed using a stepwise, forward regression
procedure (Draper and Smith, 1981) that selects one by one the variables
contributing most significantly to the explanation of variation in the
parameters.
It proved necessary in most cases to use the Neperian logarithm of the
variables to avoid getting negative parameter values when applying the
equations.
E. Servat and A. Dezetter / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 241

Equations for the CREC model

The following multiple regression results were obtained:

Ln X1 = 2 9 . 1 7 - 5 . 3 2 0 Ln Pc8 R2 = 0.194 (9)

Ln X2 = 0.56+0.787 Pr7 R2 = 0.106 (10)

Ln X3 = - 2 1 . 9 8 ~ 0 . 0 4 9 F o r e s t + 2 . 5 5 3 Ln P A R2 = 0.233 (11)

Ln X4 = 7 . 7 6 - 2 . 5 5 6 Ln P A - 0 . 0 1 1 Cultiv.area+1.029 Ln Pc8
R 2 = 0.479 (12)

Ln X5 --- 9.75+0.018 Cultiv.area+8.913 Pr7-1,.838 Ln Pc8

R 2 = 0.448 (13)

)(6 = 0.918 Cultiv.area R 2 = 0.493 (14)

Ln X7 = 0.598 Ln Pc7 R z = 0.892 (15)

where Cultiv.area is cultivated area.

The values o f the determination coefficient R 2 range from 0.11 to 0.89. All
but one o f these determination coefficients correspond to equations including
log-transformed variables. So, they do not have any statistical meaning
regarding the untransformed variables.
The most frequently selected variables are the cumulative or relative
rainfall for the first rainy season months and the percentage of cultivated
areas.

Equations for the GR3 model

The regression equations corresponding to the A, B and C parameters are
the following:

Ln A = 7.75+0.001 C u l t i v . a r e a - 4 . 4 5 0 Pr6 R 2 = 0.323 (16)

Ln B = --16.31+0.031 Cultiv.area+3.453 Ln Pc8 R 2 = 0.437 (17)

Ln C = 2.957 C o m p a c t n e s s - 0 . 1 1 4 F o r e s t - 1 2 . 7 2 1 P r 7 R 2 = 0.870 (18)

Again, the rainfall variables o f the beginning o f the rainy season and the
percentage o f cultivated areas were selected. The compactness term is an
242 E. Servat a n d ,4. Dezetter / Journal ~?/ lqvdrolo~v 14t~ ,' I993 ~ 2 3 1 - 2 4 8

explanatory variable for the unit hydrograph parameter (': this shows the
influence of the morphology of the catchment in the routing function of the
model.

Discussion
The variables describing the catchment and the climate of the year allow
predetermination equations to be defined for the parameters of the two
models. The quality of the equations is better for the GR3 model: the small
number of parameters avoids internal numerical compensations.
One main feature of the equations is the importance of the cumulative or
relative rainfall terms for the first months of the rainy season. It can be
hypothesized that these variables determine the build-up of catchment
wetness affecting subsequent runoff, and the vegetation growth and develop-
ment after the dry season. This is a critical factor owing to the importance of
evapotranspiration in the water budget of the sudanese savannah zone. These
rainfall variables may well be indirect indicators of the foliar index, which was
not available for this study.
The land use parameters are also significant. For CREC they contribute to
the definition of production parameters )(3 and )(4 and of routing parameters
)(5 and )(6. For GR3 the cultivated and forested area proportions are present
in the three equations.

Validation o[' the multiple regression equations

The equations computed using the first subsample were validated using the
remaining 20 station-years. For each station-year, the parameters of the
models were derived from the equations. Then the hydrographs were
simulated using the two models with these parameter values. The results were
interpreted using the assessment model described above and the plots of the
simulated and observed hydrographs.
The observed, calibrated and predetermined series were compared two by
two. For each station-year, three types of comparison were obtained: (1)
calibrated vs. observed hydrograph comparison (C/O); (2) predetermined vs.
observed hydrograph comparison (P/O); (3) predetermined vs. calibrated
hydrograph comparison (P/C).

CREC model
Table 4 presents the statistical results of the validation lor the CREC
model. The IRVC values show a mean error o f 4 1 % on the simulation of the
annual flood volume (the mode is only 32.6%). The predetermined model can
E. Servat and A. Dezetter / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 243

Table 4
Results of the validation of the predetermination equations for the CREC model

10day DACI a DAC2 b Bilanl Bilan2 IRVC Daily Daily

correlation Nash correlation

Mean C/O 0.94 0.094 0.106 5.41 40.86 3.40 0.197 0.89
Mean P/C 0.70 0.120 0.131 59.98 80.78 40.85 0.627 0.67
Mean P/C 0.77 0.054 0.098 58.01 71.47 41.99 0.518 0.77
SD C/O 0.04 0.099 0.084 6.03 30.08 2.84 0.116 0.07
SDP/O 0.30 0.125 0.154 53.37 48.68 29.06 0.350 0.29
SD P/C 0.29 0.059 0.123 53.21 48.26 27.75 0.403 0.29
Mode C/O 0.93 0.044 0.069 1.20 26.60 2.24 0.164 0.89
Mode P/O 0.74 0.035 0.057 40.70 102.00 32.63 0.528 0.70
Mode P/C 0.85 0.021 0.046 40.90 47.40 30.74 0.310 0.85
Minimum C/O 0.87 0.001 0.005 0.30 1.30 0.33 0.020 0.74
Minimum P/O 0.01 0.004 0.008 0.90 4.70 4.73 0.122 0.01
Minimum P/C 0.09 0.003 0.002 0.60 4.50 5.30 0.031 0.08
Maximum C/O 0.99 0.348 0.281 26.10 120.70 8.93 0.449 0.99
Maximum P/O 0.98 0.433 0.615 179.50 181.70 91.28 1.315 0.97
Maximum P/C 0.99 0.225 0.509 176.60 176.60 91.66 1.328 0.99

"DACI, order 1 autocorrelation difference; b DAC2, order 2 autocorrelation difference.

therefore give a rough estimate of the flood volume. This relatively poor result
may be due to some extreme cases in the validation sample, such as the Douni
in 1983 that produces an IRVC of 91.3 and 10-day correlation coefficient of
0.01. This kind of result has a major effect on the mean and standard error of
the assessment indices. However, they generally correspond to exceptional dry
years such as 1983 and 1984, represented by seven station-years in the
validation subsample.
The decrease in the quality of the simulated hydrograph between calibrated
and predetermined parameter values is therefore mainly due to unusual
climate conditions, as statistically established equations do not allow
departure from a kind of 'climate normality'.
The observed, calibrated and predetermined hydrographs were plotted, at
a 10-day time step for the whole validation sample. The difficult cases such as
the Douni in 1983 are confirmed. Two examples of plots are given in Figs. 4
and 5. Concerning the Tiemba at Dioulatedougou in 1981, the Nash criterion
increases from 0.08 to 0.12, and the IRVC from 0.3 to 6.7, between the
calibration and the predetermination. In the Sien at Nafana-Sienso in 1977,
the Nash criterion increases from 0.16 to 0.33, and the IRVC from 1.0 to 34.8.
 244 E. Servat and A. Dezetter / Journal 0[ Hydrology 148 c 1993) 231-248

50 mm
45
Observed
D4o i
i
$
35 4~ • Calibrated
c30
i Predetermined
h25 ~
a 20
r
15
g T \

0F~-~-=----=-i-- . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-
1 7 13 19 25 31
10-day period

Fig. 4. T h e T i e m b a at D i o u l a t i e d o u g o u , 1981. O b s e r v e d , calibrated and p r e d e t e r m i n e d

hydrographs. CREC model.

GR3 model
Table 5 presents the statistical results of the validation for the G R 3 model.
The I R V C values show a mean error of 28% on the simulation of the annual
flood volume (the mode is 9.2%). This is better than for the C R E C model.
Still, some cases produce very poor results: for the Yani at Madji in 1981,
I R V C reaches 128%. Excluding this value from the statistical calculations
leads to a mean of 22%, a standard deviation of 26% and a maximum of 82%.
The results for the other criteria confirm the better quality of the G R 3

35 mm

D 30 .... Observed

i 25 •- Calibrated
S ~u A
e20~ Predetermined !i i A
h
a15+ !i
r ii.
g l0 ~ ,'!~
e

0 - ~ . ~. - ~. _- _- _- _- -_.~-_
_ . . . . . : A .t

1 7 13 19 25 31
lO-day period

Fig. 5. T h e Sien at N a f a n a - S i e n s o , 1977. O b s e r v e d , c a l i b r a t e d a n d p r e d e t e r m i n e d h y d r o g r a p h s .

CREC model.
E. Servat and A. Dezetter / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 245

Table 5
Results of the validation of the predetermination equations for the GR3 model

10day DAC1 a DAC2 b Bilanl Bilan2 IRVC Daily Daily

correlation Nash correlation

Mean C/O 0.92 0.105 0.145 10.45 45.43 6.67 0.244 0.87
Mean P/C 0.89 0.114 0.149 39.32 67.74 28.52 0.559 0.83
Mean P/C 0.98 0.041 0.048 38.61 52.00 27.92 0.447 0.96
SD C/O 0.06 0.107 0.142 8.95 28.97 7.89 0.145 0.09
SDP/O 0.06 0.123 0.146 60.89 57.62 35.18 0.514 0.10
SD P/C 0.02 0.048 0.059 61.22 58.63 34.88 0.715 0.04
Mode C/O 0.90 0.041 0.095 6.10 11.07 3.37 0.235 0.87
Mode P/O 0.89 0.042 0.080 12.60 59.40 9.16 0.389 0.80
Mode P/C 0.98 0.014 0.027 10.10 20.90 10.23 0.159 0.96
Minimum C/O 0.77 0.004 0.001 1.70 3.20 0.19 0.039 0.62
Minimum P/O 0.75 0.003 0.017 0.60 4.60 0.11 0.069 0.60
Minimum P/C 0.93 0.002 0.005 0.60 2.80 0.41 0.004 0.89
Maximum C/O 0.99 0.337 0.526 34.90 110.70 33.17 0.624 0.98
Maximum P/O 0.99 0.353 0.580 266.40 268.60 128.36 2.298 0.98
Maximum P/C 0.99 0.187 0.252 251.00 251.00 127.92 2.955 0.99

a DACI, order 1 autocorrelation difference; b DAC2, order 2 autocorrelation difference.

equations compared with the CREC equations and the good hydrograph
reconstitutions that they produce. The parameter independence and less
numerical compensation in GR3 account for these better results.
The observed, calibrated and predetermined hydrographs were plotted for
the whole validation sample. Again, some cases are difficult to explain: these
are usually related to very dry years. Yet, most of the predetermined
hydrographs give a good estimate of the catchment output with an acceptable
error margin. Two examples of plots are given in Figs. 6 and 7. Concerning
the Tiemba at Dioulatedougou in 1981, the Nash criterion remains constant
at 0.07 between the calibration and the predetermination. Moreover, the
IRVC decreases from 0.5 to 0.1. In the Tiemba at Lille in 1984---a rather dry
year--the Nash criterion increases from 0.24 to 0.29, and the IRVC from 2.0
to 20.0: here, the quality of the model response decreases in the predetermina-
tion, although the predetermined hydrograph remains close to the calibrated
hydrograph.
Conclusion
The CREC and GR3 models, originally designed for temperate areas,
produced good results in the northern Ivorian catchments in spite of the high
 246 E. Servat and A. Dezetter Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248

45 him

40
D Observed
• 35
1
• Calibrated
s 30
c 25 ~- Predetermined
h
a 20
rl5
g I0
e
5

1 7 13 19 25 .31
1 0 - d a y period

Fig. 6. The Tiemba at Dioulatiedougou, 1981. Observed, calibrated and predetermined

hydrographs. GR3 model.

variability of the hydrological conditions, especially due to the 1983-1984

drought. Some improvements can be suggested to make them more efficient
in tropical areas. For example, modelling of evaporation should be improved
because this term accounts for 80-90% of the water budget of these regions:
in both the models used, evaporation is treated in a very simplified way.
However, more detailed modelling would require additional data that are
seldom available.
The predetermination equations of the parameters established to extend the
modelling to ungauged sites involved land use and rainfall distribution

35 i mm [ • ,

..... Observed '

D30 I
i 25 [ - • Calibrated , /~
S
[
c20 i ~' Predetermined
h
a15~
r

g lO
e 5

1 7 13 19 25 3l
10-day period
Fig. 7. The Tiemba at Lille, 1984. Observed, calibrated and predetermined hydrographs. GR3
model.
E. Servat and A. Dezetter / Journal of Hydrology 148 (1993) 231-248 247

variables. This, indirectly, emphasizes the necessity to consider variables

describing the vegetation cover. Including such variables would allow a
significant improvement in the simulation of the evapotranspiration term.
The results obtained with the predetermination equations are quite
acceptable for the GR3 model. The results obtained with the CREC model are
less satisfactory. This confirms again the question of good parametrization of
the rainfall-runoff models, especially as far as parameter independence is
concerned.
In an operational situation, the reliability of these equations must be
improved before routine application. The investigations could be broadened
to improve the definition of the equations. For this type of catchment, it
would be particularly interesting to take into account:
(1) Additional variables to describe the catchments, such as the bedrock
and soil features, vegetation or vegetation-growth indices, superficial soil
horizon wetting indices, etc.
(2) Catchments located in other west African regions: this would allow
work on a more heterogeneous sample likely to reveal new explanatory factors
linked to the intrinsic features of the catchments. In the present study, the
external factors were more important than the intrinsic ones because the set
of catchments studied was very homogeneous.
This could be done using a method similar to the one presented here. It
involves the use of 'station-years' as individuals, systematic annual calibra-
tions, analysis of the calibrated parameter sets, and research of predetermina-
tion equations by means of multiple regressions.

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