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Diffusion of Sustainable Technologies
Diffusion of Sustainable
Technologies
Diffusion of Sustainable Technologies
Diffusion of Sustainable Technologies
 Sustainable Technologies : Concept and Examples  Diffusion: Concepts and Applications  Case: Diffusion
 Sustainable Technologies : Concept and Examples
 Diffusion: Concepts and Applications
 Case: Diffusion of Sustainable Technologies in India
 Challenges and Solutions to Diffusion of Sustainable Technology
Sustainability and its Components
Sustainability and its Components
 Aims for survival of human race in limitless future with limited resources  Sustainable
 Aims for survival of human race in limitless future
with limited resources
 Sustainable development is development that
“ meets the needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs ” (Brundtland Commission, 1987)
Criteria for Sustainable Development
Criteria for Sustainable Development

Economic feasibility -Profitability, replicability,longevity, affordability

Environmental soundness -Low carbon and pollution intensity

Social acceptability -Modern and sophisticated, enhanced status

Technological effectiveness - Robust, ease of use, efficient, reliable, low skill needs

Self reliance -Local resources/supply chain, create livelihoods

Fly ash bricks

reliable, low skill needs  Self reliance -Local resources/supply chain, create livelihoods Fly ash bricks Tidal
reliable, low skill needs  Self reliance -Local resources/supply chain, create livelihoods Fly ash bricks Tidal

Tidal Energy

Sustainable Technology
Sustainable Technology
 Any technology which enables sustainable development towards its objective  Meeting the all criteria
 Any technology which enables
sustainable development
towards its objective
 Meeting the all criteria for
sustainable development
 When viewed from components of
Economy, Environment, Equity
and Institutions
Examples of Sustainable Technologies
Examples of Sustainable Technologies
Examples of Sustainable Technologies Solar & Wind Plants Electric Vehicles Energy Monitoring Software ARUN (Atal solar

Solar & Wind Plants

Examples of Sustainable Technologies Solar & Wind Plants Electric Vehicles Energy Monitoring Software ARUN (Atal solar

Electric Vehicles

Technologies Solar & Wind Plants Electric Vehicles Energy Monitoring Software ARUN (Atal solar Rooftop User

Energy Monitoring Software

Technologies Solar & Wind Plants Electric Vehicles Energy Monitoring Software ARUN (Atal solar Rooftop User Navigator)

ARUN (Atal solar Rooftop User Navigator)

Thought on Diffusion
Thought on Diffusion

“To get the bad customs of a country changed and new ones,

though better, introduced, it is necessary first to remove the prejudices of the people, enlighten their ignorance, and convince them that their interests will be promoted by the

proposed changes; and this is not the work of a day.”

-Benjamin Franklin (1781)

their interests will be promoted by the proposed changes; and this is not the work of
Diffusion
Diffusion

Definition

Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.

New ideas- Message in the communication uncertainty

Innovation reduces this uncertainty

Research on diffusion of innovations started from rural sociology area in 1920s and 1930s

Theory for Diffusion of Innovations by Prof. Everett Rogers in 1962

Importance

Existent wide gap between what is known and what is actually put into use

How to influence the rate of adoption of new technologies/innovations

Centralized(LED lights) vs Decentralized Diffusion(Ola, Uber)

lights) vs Decentralized Diffusion(Ola, Uber) Distinguished Professor Emeritus Department of Communication

Distinguished Professor Emeritus Department of Communication and Journalism University of New Mexico

Key Elements of Diffusion
Key Elements of Diffusion
Key Elements of Diffusion Technologies Time Key Elements of Diffusion Communication Channel Social System

Technologies

Key Elements of Diffusion Technologies Time Key Elements of Diffusion Communication Channel Social System

Time

Key Elements of Diffusion

Key Elements of Diffusion Technologies Time Key Elements of Diffusion Communication Channel Social System

Communication Channel

Key Elements of Diffusion Technologies Time Key Elements of Diffusion Communication Channel Social System

Social System

1.Technologies
1.Technologies

Components of Technologies

Hardware

1.Technologies Components of Technologies Hardware Technologies A technology is an idea, practice, or object that is
Technologies A technology is an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by
Technologies
A technology is an idea, practice, or
object that is perceived as new by an
individual or other unit of adoption

Innovation

Code

Information

or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption Innovation

Software

or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption Innovation
or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption Innovation
or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption Innovation
or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption Innovation
or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption Innovation
Decision Process
Decision Process
Increased uncertainty Due to unknown consequences Decreased uncertainty due to additional information
Increased uncertainty
Due to unknown
consequences
Decreased uncertainty
due to additional
information
Decreased uncertainty due to additional information Accept or Reject A technology Electric Vehicles

Accept or Reject A technology

Electric Vehicles

Uncertainty- Range Information- EV charging stations at suitable distance

Solar PV/Wind

Uncertainty- Generation Time

Information- Grid is available

Biomass Power Uncertainty- Seasonality of Generation Information- Grid is available

Characteristics of Sustainable Technologies
Characteristics of Sustainable Technologies

Relative Advantage

Lesser carbon dioxide emissions, Less limited resources, Cheaper(Solar water heater), waste utilization(Biomass)

Compatibility

Solar cooker takes more time, solar power not available in night Electric vehicle takes longer time to charge and offers less range as compared to conventional vehicles, Wind power not available in summer in some states, Cooking using human waste fed biogas plant is not easily accepted.

Complexity

Trialability

Observability

Increased simplicity for direct use for all sustainable technologies Increased complexity for grid management, resource management, etc

All sustainable technologies can easily be given trials, except for large size/grid connected installations and Biomass based installations(High sunk costs)

the extent to which the results or benefit of using an innovation are visible to potential adopters

Higher the observability more is the diffusion.eg. California, Germany (RTPV), Solar water heater in India

Need to increase the observability for electric vehicles

2.Communication Channels
2.Communication Channels

Communication channel is the means by which information about the new technology is exchanged.

Types of channels

Mass Media channel- Television, Radio Set, Newspaper, Websites of Government Agencies etc

Interpersonal channels- Colleague, Neighbour, Friend ,etc

Interpersonal channels affect the decision of adoption of sustainable technology, subjective evaluation of an innovation that is conveyed to them from other individuals like themselves who have previously adopted the innovation.

Ideal agents for communication of technology

Homophilous: on all other variables (education, social status, and the like)

Heterophilous: regarding the technology

Communication channels for sustainable technologies- Mass Channels

channels for sustainable technologies- Mass Channels No interactive television ads for any sustainable
channels for sustainable technologies- Mass Channels No interactive television ads for any sustainable
channels for sustainable technologies- Mass Channels No interactive television ads for any sustainable

No interactive television ads

for any sustainable

technology(PV or EV) by government or private

player!

Communication channels for sustainable technologies- Interpersonal Channels

47% of those who have installed and

56% of those who considered installing solar PVs relied on information from friends, family, and neighbors. WRI, India

Example of Interpersonal Channel

solar PVs relied on information from friends, family, and neighbors. – WRI, India Example of Interpersonal

3.Three dimensions of time in diffusion process

1. In the innovation decision process by which an individual passes from first knowledge of
1. In the innovation decision process by which an individual passes from first knowledge
of an innovation through its adoption or rejection(No studies for sustainable technologies)
2. In the innovativeness of an individual or other unit of adoption—that is, the relative
earliness/lateness with which an innovation is adopted—compared with other members of a
system(No studies for sustainable technologies)
3. In an innovation's rate of adoption in a system, usually measured as the number of
members of the system that adopt the innovation in a given time period.(S-
Curve)(Approximated by installed capacity/no. of. Units distributed)
Innovation Decision Process Implementation Decision Persuasion Knowledge
Innovation Decision Process
Implementation
Decision
Persuasion
Knowledge
Confirmation
Confirmation

INNOVATIVENESS AND ADOPTER CATEGORIES

 Innovativeness is the degree to which an individual or other unit of adoption is
 Innovativeness is the degree to which an individual or other unit of adoption is relatively
earlier in adopting new ideas than the other members of a system.

Innovators social status, high

financial liquidity, close

contact to scientific

sources

Early Adopters

Opinion leader, Social status, high financial liquidity Better education

Early Majority

average social status,

contact with early

adopters

Late Majority skeptical about an innovation, have below

average social status,

little financial liquidity

Laggards Only influenced by contact with family and close friends.

FAME India Dashboard
FAME India Dashboard
FAME India Dashboard
Rate of Adoption
Rate of Adoption
 Rate of adoption is the relative speed with which an innovation is adopted by
 Rate of adoption is the relative speed
with which an innovation is adopted
by members of a social system.
 S Curve-Plot Cumulative number of
adopter (frequency) against time
 Rate of adoptions differ for different
innovations
 It depends on social system,
compatibility, aspects of
characteristics of innovation
 Modeled using Logistic function and
Agent Based Modelling

A typical S-Curve

Sustainable technology S-Curves for India
Sustainable technology S-Curves for India

Solar

Sustainable technology S-Curves for India S o l a r W i n d Rooftop-Solar Will

Wind

technology S-Curves for India S o l a r W i n d Rooftop-Solar Will these

Rooftop-Solar

technology S-Curves for India S o l a r W i n d Rooftop-Solar Will these

Will these technologies follow the famous S-Curve?

Renewable Energy Prices in India
Renewable Energy Prices in India
Renewable Energy Prices in India
Renewable Energy Prices in India

Centralised Diffusion Process for

Sustainable Technologies in India

Centralised Diffusion Process for Sustainable Technologies in India

Projected Solar and Wind Installation by IGIDR, Mumbai

Projected Solar and Wind Installation by IGIDR, Mumbai
Projected Solar and Wind Installation by IGIDR, Mumbai
Projected Solar and Wind Installation by IGIDR, Mumbai

Passenger electric car stock in major regions and the top ten EVI countries

car stock in major regions and the top ten EVI countries 40% of the total EV
40% of the total EV car stock in 2017 was in China!
40% of the total EV car stock in 2017 was in China!

Source-IEA

4.Social System
4.Social System

A social system is defined as a set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem solving to accomplish a common goal.

Social structure

Effect of norms on diffusion

Roles of opinion leaders and change

agents

Types of innovation decisions

(Optional, Collective,

Authority)

Consequences of

innovation

Utility Scale Solar PV and Wind Diffusion in India

Initial Stage

Competitive

Stage

Maturity

Stage

•RPO by the Government, Must Run Status •Feed in Tariff (8-10 Rs/kWh, 5-8Rs/kWh),Opp. from Utilities
•RPO by the Government, Must Run Status
•Feed in Tariff (8-10 Rs/kWh, 5-8Rs/kWh),Opp. from Utilities and Grid Operators, Curtailment issues

RPO, must run status , authority decision making(forced diffusion), Low prices, compensation for curtailment

Faster bidding- Transmission unavailability in Tamilnadu and Gujarat, Reduction in the bidding, New bidding regulations

High response to bidding but prices felt higher by the buyers, bids cancelled.( Market failure?)

Wind RePowering( Confirmation- Characteristics of innovation) Lesser jobs and Loss of jobs due to RE(coal plants running idle), Bhusawal plant protest

From FY12 to GY 18, the installed capacity has increased and prices have also decreased.

Solar PV Rooftop
Solar PV Rooftop
 Unlike utility scale, requires active participation from the end consumer  Net metering vs
 Unlike utility scale, requires active participation from the end consumer
 Net metering vs gross metering
 Capex and Opex model
 Present trend- OPEX model for large consumers, less risk
 High initial cost, less observability currently, sector did not pick up as per the expectations
instead of 30% subsidy
 Financing issue and reliability issue, trust issue, IISc being technical institute prefers Diesel
DG
WRI Survey on Solar PV rooftop
WRI Survey on Solar PV rooftop

Between November 2017 and January 2018, WRI India surveyed 1,808 households predominantly residing in independent dwellings, across the cities of Bengaluru, Chandigarh, Chennai, Jaipur, and Nagpur.

Lack of objective and trustable information to consumers about the RTPV

Strong reliance on external developers

Government website and smartphone are not trusted as it’s a high investment

People rely on friends, family(interpersonal channels)

Event after the subsidy, consumers find RTPC financially risky, low margin product

Need better financing solutions

Industrial and commercial consumers have access to external funding, diverse business models, and third- party purchase, and they enjoy economies of scale owing to larger transaction sizes.

Residents in - electricity utility that did not support rooftop solar because it conflicted with its grid-based power supply,

Residents in Chandigarh- challenges in rooftop installations due to restrictions imposed by the municipality’s

architectural specifications.

Challenges faced during institutional processes such as delays, challenges in billing, the need for multiple visits, and the lack of capacity of officials to provide information and guidance.

Stages of Consumer Experience
Stages of Consumer Experience
Stages of Consumer Experience

Number of Households Surveyed across Types of Residential Consumers

Number of Households Surveyed across Types of Residential Consumers

Top Reasons for Not Considering Rooftop Solar PV

Top Reasons for Not Considering Rooftop Solar PV
Most Difficult Process with Vendors
Most Difficult Process with Vendors
Most Difficult Process with Vendors
Types of Financing Used
Types of Financing Used
Types of Financing Used

Percentage of People Who Faced Challenges with Institutions

Percentage of People Who Faced Challenges with Institutions
Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles
 Lack of variety of models  “Less than 5% of the total inquiries in
 Lack of variety of models
 “Less than 5% of the total inquiries in a month are for EVs, and fewer still (~20% of the EV inquiries) actually
convert into orders.”- Auto Dealers
 Imported components- high lead times, large service times
 Less Awareness
 Only 25% (i.e 7% of the total population) are aware of the fact that Government provides incentives for
purchase of EVs.
 54% of survey participants are neither aware of EV nor government subsidy.
 90% of the peoples range expectations for electric 2W will be met if a range of 200 km is offered. For electric
4W, this range envelope to meet the 90% consumers expectations doubles to 400 km
 Lack of public charging station, high charging times, Battery swapping(issue of specifications)

Solutions for Diffusion of sustainable technologies

 Current top-down approaches of the Government of India must be complemented with bottom-up initiatives
 Current top-down approaches of the Government of India must be complemented with bottom-up
initiatives that cater to the needs of the residents.
 Mass channels must be used by the Government to increase awareness about sustainable technology
 Reduce the institutional hassle for adoption of sustainable technology
 Identify the homophilous group of people and target them for adoption of sustainable technologies
 Innovative financing solutions needed
 Increase adoption of sustainable technologies in government offices to increase communication through
interpersonal channel
 46 percent responded that they faced barriers in obtaining clear information about the technology
 46 percent responded that they faced barriers in obtaining clear information about the technology
 46 percent responded that they faced barriers in obtaining clear information about the technology
 46 percent responded that they faced barriers in obtaining clear information about the
technology
 53 percent of consumers who hadn’t considered solar PV said that they either did not know
about solar or did not know enough details to consider solar.
 On an average, 45 percent of consumers who have installed a rooftop PV system relied on the
vendor for obtaining all the relevant information. The vendor is often the first source of
information.
 47 percent of respondents in Bengaluru and 69 percent of respondents in Chennai said that
they faced problems in verifying whether the vendor was trustworthy or if the price offered was
right.
 Forty-seven percent of those who have installed and 56 percent of those who considered
installing solar PVs relied on information from friends, family, and neighbors.
 Furthermore, 86 percent of the consumers who have installed solar expressed their willingness to
refer the vendor to their friends and acquaintances in the future.
 Among the five cities, on an average, only 19 percent of the respondents used the Internet to
obtain information.
 Of all the consumers surveyed, 32 percent relied exclusively on self-financing, 63 percent applied
 Of all the consumers surveyed, 32 percent relied exclusively on self-financing, 63 percent applied
 Of all the consumers surveyed, 32 percent relied exclusively on self-financing, 63 percent applied
 Of all the consumers surveyed, 32 percent relied exclusively on self-financing, 63 percent
applied for subsidies, and only 5 percent applied for loans.
 Customization to cater to the unique needs of residential consumers
 Residential sector is different from other sectors in at least the following ways:
 Re-saleability: Rooftop solar PV systems, unlike other retail consumer durable goods, do not
have a resale market.20 This poses a potential risk for banks, should a consumer default or in the
eventuality of failure of a system.
 Disproportionate collateral: Given the issues with re-saleability, the risk exposure that banks
face, and the unique nature of rooftop PV systems (versus other products), consumers are
asked to provide their houses (into which the system will be installed) as collateral. This can be a
significant disincentive, given that the rooftop solar system costs only a few lakhs, while the
houses cost several times over.