Diffusion of Sustainable

Technologies
Diffusion of Sustainable Technologies

 Sustainable Technologies : Concept and Examples

 Diffusion: Concepts and Applications

 Case: Diffusion of Sustainable Technologies in India

 Challenges and Solutions to Diffusion of Sustainable Technology

Sustainability and its Components

 Aims for survival of human race in limitless future

with limited resources

 Sustainable development is development that

“ meets the needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs ” (Brundtland Commission, 1987)
 Criteria for Sustainable Development

 Economic feasibility -Profitability, replicability,longevity, affordability

 Environmental soundness -Low carbon and pollution intensity
 Social acceptability -Modern and sophisticated, enhanced status
 Technological effectiveness - Robust, ease of use, efficient, reliable, low skill needs
 Self reliance -Local resources/supply chain, create livelihoods
Fly ash bricks

Tidal Energy
Sustainable Technology

 Any technology which enables

sustainable development
towards its objective

 Meeting the all criteria for

sustainable development

 When viewed from components of

Economy, Environment, Equity
and Institutions
 Examples of Sustainable Technologies

Solar & Wind Plants Electric Vehicles Energy Monitoring Software

ARUN (Atal solar Rooftop User

Navigator)
 Thought on Diffusion

“To get the bad customs of a country changed and new ones,
though better, introduced, it is necessary first to remove the
prejudices of the people, enlighten their ignorance, and
convince them that their interests will be promoted by the
proposed changes; and this is not the work of a day.”
-Benjamin Franklin (1781)
 Diffusion

 Definition
 Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels
over time among the members of a social system.
 New ideas- Message in the communication → uncertainty
 Innovation reduces this uncertainty

 Research on diffusion of innovations started from rural sociology area in 1920s and 1930s

 Theory for Diffusion of Innovations by Prof. Everett Rogers in 1962

 Importance Distinguished Professor Emeritus

 Existent wide gap between what is known and what is actually put into use Department of Communication
and Journalism
 How to influence the rate of adoption of new technologies/innovations University of New Mexico

 Centralized(LED lights) vs Decentralized Diffusion(Ola, Uber)

Key Elements of Diffusion

Technologies Key Elements of

Communication Channel
Diffusion

Time Social System

 1.Technologies

Components of Technologies
Technologies
Hardware
A technology is an idea, practice, or
object that is perceived as new by an Innovation Code
individual or other unit of adoption
Software
Information
 Decision Process

Increased uncertainty
Due to unknown
consequences

Accept or Reject
A technology
Decreased uncertainty
due to additional
information

Electric Vehicles Solar PV/Wind

Uncertainty- Range Uncertainty- Generation Time
Information- EV charging stations at suitable distance Information- Grid is available

Biomass Power
Uncertainty- Seasonality of Generation
Information- Grid is available
 Characteristics of Sustainable Technologies

Relative Advantage •Lesser carbon dioxide emissions, Less limited resources, Cheaper(Solar water
heater), waste utilization(Biomass)

•Solar cooker takes more time, solar power not available in night
•Electric vehicle takes longer time to charge and offers less range as
Compatibility compared to conventional vehicles, Wind power not available in summer in
some states, Cooking using human waste fed biogas plant is not easily
accepted.

Complexity •Increased simplicity for direct use for all sustainable technologies
•Increased complexity for grid management, resource management, etc

Trialability
• All sustainable technologies can easily be given trials, except for large size/grid
connected installations and Biomass based installations(High sunk costs)

• the extent to which the results or benefit of using an innovation are visible to potential

Observability
adopters
• Higher the observability more is the diffusion.eg. California, Germany (RTPV), Solar
water heater in India
• Need to increase the observability for electric vehicles
 2.Communication Channels

 Communication channel is the means by which information about the new technology is exchanged.

 Types of channels
 Mass Media channel- Television, Radio Set, Newspaper, Websites of Government Agencies etc
 Interpersonal channels- Colleague, Neighbour, Friend ,etc

 Interpersonal channels affect the decision of adoption of sustainable technology,

subjective evaluation of an innovation that is conveyed to them from other individuals like
themselves who have previously adopted the innovation.

 Ideal agents for communication of technology

 Homophilous: on all other variables (education, social status, and the like)
 Heterophilous: regarding the technology
Communication channels for sustainable
technologies- Mass Channels

No interactive television ads

for any sustainable
technology(PV or EV) by
government or private
player!
Communication channels for sustainable
technologies- Interpersonal Channels
Example of Interpersonal Channel

47% of those who

have installed and
56% of those who
considered installing
solar PVs relied on
information from friends,
family, and neighbors. –
WRI, India
3.Three dimensions of time in diffusion
process

1. In the innovation decision process by which an individual passes from first knowledge
of an innovation through its adoption or rejection(No studies for sustainable technologies)

2. In the innovativeness of an individual or other unit of adoption—that is, the relative

earliness/lateness with which an innovation is adopted—compared with other members of a
system(No studies for sustainable technologies)

3. In an innovation's rate of adoption in a system, usually measured as the number of

members of the system that adopt the innovation in a given time period.(S-
Curve)(Approximated by installed capacity/no. of. Units distributed)
 Innovation Decision Process

Confirmation

Implementation

Decision

Persuasion

Knowledge
INNOVATIVENESS AND ADOPTER
CATEGORIES

 Innovativeness is the degree to which an individual or other unit of adoption is relatively

earlier in adopting new ideas than the other members of a system.

Innovators Early Adopters

social status, high
financial liquidity, close
contact to scientific
sources
Early Majority
Opinion leader, Social
status, high financial average social status,
liquidity contact with early
adopters
Better education

Late Majority
Laggards
skeptical about an
Only influenced by
innovation, have below
contact with family and
average social status,
close friends.
little financial liquidity
FAME India Dashboard
Rate of Adoption

 Rate of adoption is the relative speed

with which an innovation is adopted
by members of a social system.
 S Curve-Plot Cumulative number of A typical S-Curve
adopter (frequency) against time
 Rate of adoptions differ for different
innovations
 It depends on social system,
compatibility, aspects of
characteristics of innovation
 Modeled using Logistic function and
Agent Based Modelling
Sustainable technology S-Curves for India

Solar Rooftop-Solar
Wind

Will these technologies follow the famous S-Curve?

Renewable Energy Prices in India
Centralised Diffusion Process for
Sustainable Technologies in India
Projected Solar and Wind Installation by
IGIDR, Mumbai
Passenger electric car stock in major
regions and the top ten EVI countries

40% of the total EV car stock in 2017 was in China!

Source-IEA
 4.Social System

A social system is defined as a set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem solving to
accomplish a common goal.

Roles of opinion
Effect of norms on
Social structure leaders and change
diffusion
agents

Types of innovation
decisions Consequences of
(Optional, Collective, innovation
Authority)
 Utility Scale Solar PV and Wind Diffusion in India

•RPO by the Government, Must Run Status

•Feed in Tariff (8-10 Rs/kWh, 5-8Rs/kWh),Opp. from Utilities and Grid Operators, Curtailment issues
Initial Stage

•RPO, must run status , authority decision making(forced diffusion),

•Low prices, compensation for curtailment
Competitive
Stage

•Faster bidding- Transmission unavailability in Tamilnadu and Gujarat, Reduction in the bidding, New bidding regulations
•High response to bidding but prices felt higher by the buyers, bids cancelled.( Market failure?)
•Wind RePowering( Confirmation- Characteristics of innovation)
Maturity
•Lesser jobs and Loss of jobs due to RE(coal plants running idle), Bhusawal plant protest
Stage

From FY12 to GY 18, the installed capacity has increased and prices have also decreased.
Solar PV Rooftop

 Unlike utility scale, requires active participation from the end consumer

 Net metering vs gross metering

 Capex and Opex model

 Present trend- OPEX model for large consumers, less risk

 High initial cost, less observability currently, sector did not pick up as per the expectations
instead of 30% subsidy

 Financing issue and reliability issue, trust issue, IISc being technical institute prefers Diesel
DG
WRI Survey on Solar PV rooftop

 Between November 2017 and January 2018, WRI India surveyed 1,808 households predominantly residing in
independent dwellings, across the cities of Bengaluru, Chandigarh, Chennai, Jaipur, and Nagpur.
 Lack of objective and trustable information to consumers about the RTPV
 Strong reliance on external developers
 Government website and smartphone are not trusted as it’s a high investment
 People rely on friends, family(interpersonal channels)
 Event after the subsidy, consumers find RTPC financially risky, low margin product
 Need better financing solutions
 Industrial and commercial consumers have access to external funding, diverse business models, and third-
party purchase, and they enjoy economies of scale owing to larger transaction sizes.
 Residents in - electricity utility that did not support rooftop solar because it conflicted with its grid-based
power supply,
 Residents in Chandigarh- challenges in rooftop installations due to restrictions imposed by the municipality’s
architectural specifications.
 Challenges faced during institutional processes such as delays, challenges in billing, the need for multiple
visits, and the lack of capacity of officials to provide information and guidance.
Stages of Consumer Experience
Number of Households Surveyed across
Types of Residential Consumers
Top Reasons for Not Considering Rooftop
Solar PV
Most Difficult Process with Vendors
Types of Financing Used
Percentage of People Who Faced
Challenges with Institutions
 Electric Vehicles

 Lack of variety of models

 “Less than 5% of the total inquiries in a month are for EVs, and fewer still (~20% of the EV inquiries) actually
convert into orders.”- Auto Dealers

 Imported components- high lead times, large service times

 Less Awareness
 Only 25% (i.e 7% of the total population) are aware of the fact that Government provides incentives for
purchase of EVs.
 54% of survey participants are neither aware of EV nor government subsidy.

 90% of the peoples range expectations for electric 2W will be met if a range of 200 km is offered. For electric
4W, this range envelope to meet the 90% consumers expectations doubles to 400 km
 Lack of public charging station, high charging times, Battery swapping(issue of specifications)
Solutions for Diffusion of sustainable
technologies

 Current top-down approaches of the Government of India must be complemented with bottom-up
initiatives that cater to the needs of the residents.

 Mass channels must be used by the Government to increase awareness about sustainable technology

 Reduce the institutional hassle for adoption of sustainable technology

 Identify the homophilous group of people and target them for adoption of sustainable technologies

 Innovative financing solutions needed

 Increase adoption of sustainable technologies in government offices to increase communication through

interpersonal channel
 46 percent responded that they faced barriers in obtaining clear information about the
technology
 53 percent of consumers who hadn’t considered solar PV said that they either did not know
about solar or did not know enough details to consider solar.
 On an average, 45 percent of consumers who have installed a rooftop PV system relied on the
vendor for obtaining all the relevant information. The vendor is often the first source of
information.
 47 percent of respondents in Bengaluru and 69 percent of respondents in Chennai said that
they faced problems in verifying whether the vendor was trustworthy or if the price offered was
right.
 Forty-seven percent of those who have installed and 56 percent of those who considered
installing solar PVs relied on information from friends, family, and neighbors.
 Furthermore, 86 percent of the consumers who have installed solar expressed their willingness to
refer the vendor to their friends and acquaintances in the future.
 Among the five cities, on an average, only 19 percent of the respondents used the Internet to
obtain information.
 Of all the consumers surveyed, 32 percent relied exclusively on self-financing, 63 percent
applied for subsidies, and only 5 percent applied for loans.
 Customization to cater to the unique needs of residential consumers
 Residential sector is different from other sectors in at least the following ways:
 Re-saleability: Rooftop solar PV systems, unlike other retail consumer durable goods, do not
have a resale market.20 This poses a potential risk for banks, should a consumer default or in the
eventuality of failure of a system.

 Disproportionate collateral: Given the issues with re-saleability, the risk exposure that banks
face, and the unique nature of rooftop PV systems (versus other products), consumers are
asked to provide their houses (into which the system will be installed) as collateral. This can be a
significant disincentive, given that the rooftop solar system costs only a few lakhs, while the
houses cost several times over.