J. Mt. Sci.

(2012) 9: 214–220
DOI: 10.1007/s11629-012-2148-5

Dam-break Flood Simulation under Various Likely

Scenarios and Mapping Using GIS: Case of a Proposed Dam
on River Yamuna, India

Mahendra S. LODHI1* and Devendra K. AGRAWAL2

1 GB Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, North-East Unit, Vivek Vihar, Itanagar - 791113,
Arunachal Pradesh, India
2 AGM – Environment, Energy Infratech Pvt. Ltd., Plot No: 145 – 146, Udyog Vihar Phase – IV, Gurgaon – 122015, India

﹡Corresponding author,e-mail: mahen29.mail@gmail.com

© Science Press and Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Abstract: The precision modeling of dam break Introduction

floods can lead to formulation of proper emergency
action plan to minimize flood impacts within the
economic lifetime of the assets. Application of GIS
techniques in integration with hydrological modeling
for mapping of the flood inundated areas can play a
momentous role in further minimizing the risk and
likely damages. In the present study, dam break
analysis using DAMBRK model was performed under
various likely scenarios. Probable Maximum Flood
(PMF) calculated for a return period of 1000 years
using deterministic approach was adopted for dam
break analysis of the proposed dam under various
combinations of breach dimensions. The available
downstream river cross-sections data sets were used
as input in the model to generate the downstream
flood profile. Dam break flow depths generated by the
DAMBRK model under various combinations of
structural failure are subsequently plotted on Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) of the downstream of dam
site to map the likely affected area. The simulation
results reveals that in one particular case the flood
without dam may be more intense if a rainfall of
significant intensity takes place.
Keywords: Dam break analysis; DAMBRK; GIS;
Flood mapping; Hydropower; India
Received: 24 March 2011
Accepted: 25 December 2011
Among the various man-made hazards, failure
of a storage dam is a common and disastrous
hazard. Large inflow into the reservoir, seepage or
piping action through dam structure, embankment
or slope failure, earth quake, landslides generated
waves etc. are the possible reasons responsible for
a dam failure. Irrespective of the cause of failure it
is quite apparent that the elevated water waves
rushing down can lead to massive destruction in
the downstream reaches. Floods due to dam failure
are generally significantly larger than natural
floods as unexpected high peak in a very short
duration and presence of a moving hydraulic
shock/bore make it a different problem as
compared to other natural floods (Singh 2005).
Flood waves resulting from dam breaks have been
responsible for severe losses of life and natural as
well as man-made assets (Husain et al. 2000).
Advance and efficient modeling of probable dam
failure events can play a significant role in
safeguarding the life and valuable resources against
such man-made disasters. The predictive data on
hypothetical flood events such as flood flows, flow
velocities, depths and flood wave arrival times at
specific locations downstream of the dam become
somewhat the most important pieces of
information for disaster preparedness (Kho et al.

214

2009). In order to predict the magnitude and
extent of such floods, computerized mathematical
simulation models are being recognized as
powerful tools worldwide.
1 Methods and Materials
1.1 Modeling of dam break flow
Ritter (1892) attempted very first for the
analytical solution of dam break problems for a
horizontal frictionless rectangular channel and now
a day’s different flood and reservoir routing
methods and procedures are available in literature.
Till now several researchers have developed one
dimensional and two dimensional models
(Katopodes 1984; Hromadka 1985; Akanbi et al.
1988; Zhao et al. 1996; Hicks et al. 1997; Sarma
1999; Zoppou et al. 2000; Sanders 2001;
Macchione et al. 2004), for simulating dam break
flood (Mimi et al. 2006). In addition to this, a
number of professional and user friendly software
viz. UNET (HEC 1995), MIKE-11 (Danish
Hydraulics Institute), DAMBRK (NWS), RUBICON,
FLDWAV etc. have been developed for simplifying
the cumbersome process of carrying out the dam
break analysis routing. The choice of a model
depends upon the prevailing ground situations and
the availability of the data sets.
All these dam break models are categorized
into two groups i.e., the simple empirical models
and the sophisticated ones requiring high-level
computer skills. Among these, the BOSS DAMBRK
(originally developed by NWS) model has been
widely used (Nayak et al. 2004; Wahl 1997). The
BOSS DAMBRK is advanced, easy-to-use one-
dimensional hydrodynamic flood routing software
and is commonly used for dynamic flood routing,
dam safety analysis and reservoir spillway analysis.
The DAMBRK model simulates the failure of a dam,
computes the resultant outflow hydrograph and
also simulates movement of the dam break flood
wave through the downstream river valley. It
utilizes hydrodynamic theory to predict the dam
break wave formation and its downstream
progression (User’s Manual 1991). After computing
the hydrograph of the reservoir outflow, the
flooding elevations in the downstream valley is
determined by routing the outflow hydrograph
J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 214–220
through the valley cross-sections.
If a disaster cannot be avoided, individual and
social structure preparedness may be of great help
in reducing risk and vulnerability. Past experiences
shows that the time between the occurrence of a
breach and discharge of the dam reservoir ranges
from 15 minutes to 5 hours (Seker et al. 2003).
Thus a precision modeling of dam break floods can
lead to formulation of proper emergency action
plan to minimize flood impacts within the
economic lifetime of the assets. To make the people
aware and resilient against dam break floods, a
flood hazard map can be a comprehensive mode of
proving all these details at one place. Application of
Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques
in integration of hydrological modeling can result
vital maps depicting valuable and reliable
information on future risk assessment and their
management. In the present study, an effort has
been made to plot the model generated flooding
elevations under various combinations of possible
flood hazard on Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of
the downstream river stretch. The dam under study
is a part of Vyasi hydroelectric power project which
is proposed on river Yamun in Uttarakhand state of
India (Figure 1). The proposed hydropower project
is planned to have a capacity of 120 MW. The
probable maximum flood calculated for a return
period of 1000 years using deterministic approach
was adopted for carrying out dam failure analysis
of the proposed dam under various combinations
Figure 1 Location map of the Vyasi Hydropower Dam
and its catchment in Yamuna basin
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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 214–220

of breach dimensions and time of occurrence using characteristics, etc.), downstream river cross-
the available data sets of natural downstream river sections and channel roughness characteristics. In
cross-sections. present study, these basic data sets were acquired
from the project proponent’s document (Revised
Detailed Project Report of Lakhwar-Vyasi
Table 1 Salient features of the project hydropower project 2006) and remaining few
Dam parameters such as roughness coefficient etc., were
Top of dam EL. 634 m assumed based on the river valley characteristics,
River bed level at dam site EL. 584 m technical help from DAMBRK User’s manual was
Expected deepest foundation level EL. 548 m also taken. The inflow hydrograph considered in
Upstream slope 0.3:1 the present analysis is Probable Maximum Flood
Downstream Slope 0.65:1
(PMF) hydrograph (Figure 2) with 1000 yr return
Reservoir
period having a peak of 8850 cubic metre per
Maximum water level (MWL) EL. 631.5 m
Full Reservoir Level (FRL) EL. 360 m
second (cumec). The PMF was estimated by
Gross Storage at FRL 12.6 Mm3 deterministic approach using hydrograph method
Dead Storage at Minimum Drawdown by convolution of 1-day unit hydrograph computed
9.12 Mm3
Level (MDDL) from the observed flood hydrograph of 1988. The
Reservoir area at FRL 70.4 ha reservoir’s storage volume was estimated in terms
Live Storage 3.48 Mm3 of Elevation-Area capacity as presented in Table 2.
Hydrology
Catchment area 2100 km2
Free Draining Catchment 13.6137 km2
Designed Flood 8850 Cumec
Maximum Annual Runoff (1998-99) 37637 Mm3
Average Annual Runoff 2318 Mm3

1.2 The Vyasi hydroelectric power project

The proposed Vyasi hydroelectric project

(HEP) will have an 86 m high (above deepest
foundation) concrete gravity dam having 205 m of
top width (30o31’N, 77 o 54’E). The dam will
regulate the river flow through a 2.7 km long and 7
m diameter tunnel to the power house proposed
4.5 km downstream of the dam site. The project on Figure 2 Inflow probable maximum flood hydrograph
for Vyasi dam site (Source: Revised DPR, Lakhwar and
completion is likely to generate 425 million kWh of Vyasi Hydroelectric project, 2006)
electricity on annual basis. The project site is 66.6
km from Dehradun, the state capital of Table 2 Reservoir volume description
Uttarakhand and the site can be approached Elevation (m AMSL) Surface Area (km2)
through National Highway 123 passing through the 634.00 0.765
project area (Comprehensive EIA of Vyasi HEP 626.00 0.604
2006). The salient features of the project (Table 1) 618.00 0.438
are given below. 610.00 0.278
602.00 0.166
1.3 Data Required 594.00 0.080
586.00 0.019
For undertaking the dam break analysis, basic 584.00 0
data required for DAMBRK model are hydrological
detail (PMF hydrograph), reservoir information The reservoir cross-sections at an interval of
(Elevation-Area characteristics), dam design each 250 m were taken from the dam axis up to a
parameters (different dam elevations, spillway point along the length of river Yamuna where river

216

bed level is equal to FRL (Full Reservoir Level).
The reservoir capacity at FRL (EL 630 m) and
MDDL (EL 624.5 m) was worked out as 12.6 Mm3
and 9.12 Mm3 respectively. The length of Vyasi
reservoir at FRL (EL 630 m) is 4.85 km and the
spread at FRL is 0.703 km2 (Revised Detailed
Project Report of Lakhwar-Vyasi hydropower
project 2006). The actual downstream river cross
sections provided by the project proponents up to
reach length of 5.65 km at every 500m interval
have been used for conducting the analysis.
Additional river cross-sections were generated
through GIS using DEM up to a downstream reach
length of 26.5 km. The DEM for the catchment area
was generated through standard Triangulation
Irregular Network (TIN) techniques using digitized
contours obtained from Survey of India
topographic sheets (1:50,000 scale).
2 Modelling Results
The proposed dam will be a concrete gravity
dam and usually concrete gravity dams tend to
have a partial breach as one or more monolith
sections formed during the construction of the dam
are forced apart by the escaping water. The final
breach dimensions and time of breach formation
are most important parameters in calculating the
flood hydrograph. At the same time these
parameter are uncertain depending upon the
Figure 3 Flood crest profile plot for PMF hydrograph under four different cases (I-IV)
J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 214–220
nature of structure and acting forces, thus in order
to simulate the possible scenario, a set of different
values can give better estimates. To study the effect
of breach dimensions, different combinations
starting from least to worst case were considered
for developing different scenarios of dam break
failure. Further, since the concrete dams tend to
have a rectangular breach, therefore the breach
side slopes are assumed zero. The time of breach
formation in such cases is usually small therefore;
the time of breach formation was taken as 0.1 hr
for all the scenarios. The roughness coefficients of
the river bed material were taken as 0.05 at the
dam section and 0.04 at all other river cross
sections.
As discussed, to study the effect of breach
dimension and other possible conditions of dam
failure or flood eventually, four different scenarios
were considered in this study, as described below:
Case I: No Dam (routing of peak flow only): In
this case simulation of the Probable Maximum
Flood (PMF) hydrograph was performed without
considering any structure in the consideration.
Case II: With Dam Break (Breach Dimensions:
16.5m Depth X 125 m Width): Under this scenario,
dam break analysis was done using PMF
hydrograph considering relatively small breach
dimensions (16.5 m depth and 125 m width).
Case III: With Dam Break (Breach Dimensions:
41.25m Depth X 125 m Width): Under this case,
dam break analysis was performed considering
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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 214–220
relatively large breach formation (41.25m depth
and 125m width).
Case IV: Without Dam Break (Overtopping):
The occurrence of operational gate failure or
spillway blockages can result in a range of different
overtopping depths that can lead to dam failure. If
the upstream pool elevation continues to rise
during a flood event, the dam may experience
overtopping due to a combination of wave
overtopping and overflow due to the high static
pool elevation.
3 Discussion
3.1 Flood inundation elevation
The flood crests profile (Figure 3) was plotted
for all the four likely scenarios. The flooding depths
Figure 4 River Cross-section and flooding elevations for the Probable Maximum Flood
(PMF) hydrograph under different cases
218
at each cross-section within the stretch of 26.5 km
are given in Table 3, and presented in Figure 4 as
well. The results give clear understanding of
flooding elevations and lateral spread of flood.
Flood inundation plot shows that the flood wave
confines itself within the valley section of the river.
The results further indicate that at the fifth cross-
section (i.e. 8.2 km in downstream) the flooding
depths, in all the four scenarios achieves the same
elevation level and further downstream the waves
are following the similar trend and elevations as
that of normal flood wave without dam scenario.
At the 5th cross-section i.e., 8.2 km
downstream from the proposed Vyasi dam site, the
difference between flooding water level resulting
from that particular event of dam failure and flood
level without dam (Case-I) are the same and this
suggests that the hazardous effect of dam break

would be felt up to this location only. Further down
below, the flooding of almost similar magnitude
would take place whether the dam exist or not. In
other words, it can be understood from the results
that in a particular scenario of flood event a storage
structure like a dam may not always be made
responsible for a flood disaster, as the natural
event itself can cause a flood of equal magnitude in
downstream. This might be a true case with
reference to the small dams built at the outlet of a
large catchment area.
3.2 Flood inundation mapping
To map the spatial spread of the flooding
water in downstream area of the dam, the plotting
of flooding elevation on Digital Elevation Model
(DEM) was done using GIS. For defining the likely
impact zone, a 5 km lateral stretch on both the
banks of river Yamuna in the downstream of the
proposed dam was considered. On the base layer,
human settlements, roads network, etc. were
superimposed. Using these layers in conjunction
with the results of dam break analysis, the flooding
elevations of different reaches were plotted on the
DEM and inundation map was prepared (Figure 5).
For the purpose of this analysis, additional area
that is likely to be inundated in worst case of dam
Figure 5 Flood inundation map in the downstream floodplain of 10km width
J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 214–220
failure in addition to the case of flood inundation
without dam was considered. The results indicated
that, no human settlement is likely to be
submerged as a result of dam failure in this 8.2 km
stretch; although an additional area of 4.69 km2 is
likely to be submerged in large breaching.
4 Conclusion
For reducing the threats of dam induced floods
it is essential to understand the characteristics of
probable flood in realistic manner. Large man-
made storage structures like dam always possess a
risk of devastating floods in the downstream;
however a natural rainfall event of high magnitude
can also create a huge flood hazard, where a
storage structure has no role to play. Assessment of
such probable scenarios along with dam break
flood simulations can provide us with better
understanding and preparedness of such floods.
Following the same hypothesis, this study was
attempted, simulating the probable maximum
flood hydrograph in four different cases. The
simulation of PMF under ‘No dam’, ‘Dam break
with small breach’, ‘Dam break with large breach’
and ‘Without dam break but overtopping’ was
performed. The result shows that the flooding
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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 214–220
elevations in Case-I, (No Dam) are higher than
other two cases (II&IV) except dam break with
larger breach dimensions (Case-III) at second
cross-section. This interestingly reveals that an
intensive rainfall event in upper catchment or
overtopping of huge amount of water through the
dam can also trigger a flood where there is no point
of blaming a storage structure. The plotted flooding
elevation on DEM shows clear demarcation of area
under probable submergence in all four likely
scenarios. Moreover, an area of 4.69 km2 under
additional submergence in case of almost
completed failure of structure, depicted on the map.
The outcomes of such work might put forward a
new point of consideration for development of
disaster management plans particularly in case of
dam of moderate reservoir catchment area as in the
present case. It is now a known fact that a large
number of hydropower projects are coming up in
the Indian Himalayan Region, these projects are
serious cause of concern for floods disaster in
downstream areas. The present study may put a
positive contemplation if we think about
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to express sincere thanks to
M/s National Hydroelectric Power Corporation
Ltd., Faridabad for providing the opportunity to
work on EIA/EMP studies of the proposed project.
Several officials of NHPC provided greater insight
to the project and we thank them all in particular to
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