Foreign Policy Analysis

By:

Raynard Christian – 6091801115

Class B

Dosen Foreign Policy Analysis

Dr. I Nyoman Sudira, Drs., M.Si.

PROGRAM STUDI HUBUNGAN INTERNASIONAL

UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK PARAHYANGAN

2019
Raynard Christian

6091801115

Foreign Policy Analysis/B

The Belt Road Initiative: Peeling of Military Agenda within International

Trade Routes

As the new industrial and technological revolution is about to take off, free trade within a
regional are cropping up one and another. In other words, connectivity holds a key link.
However, connectivity is not merely about roads, bridges, or linear connection of different
places on surface. Infrastructure, institutions, people-to-people exchanges and a five-way
progress in communication policy, infrastructure connectivity, trade link, capital flow, and
understanding among peoples are included as an important factor. Under these reasons, China
came up with several approaches to countries in many continents to help them build up their
country, especially in infrastructure, in order to fulfil their biggest ambitious, Belt Road
Initiative (BRI). However, through their approaches, China also leave their military footprints,
making many parties being sceptical on their “goodwill”.

The initiative was first announced by President of China, Xi Jinping, in September 2013. The
president said that BRI can be a new silk road in this contemporary era, connecting the trade
routes in a globe scale.1 BRI aims to promote the connectivity of Asian, European, and African
continents and their contiguous seas, which could establish and strengthen partnership and
relationship among the countries involving in the project.2 In addition, China believe through
this way, BRI also will help align and coordinate the development strategies of the involving
states, including tap market potential in the region, promote investment and consumption,
create demands and job opportunities, enhance people-to-people and cultural exchanges, and

1
“The Belt & Road Initiative”, Institute for Security and Development Policy,
http://isdp.eu/content/uploads/2016/10/2016-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf (accessed on March 18 2019)
2
“Full text: Action plan on the Belt Road Initiative”, The State Council The People’s Republic of China,
http://english.gov.cn/archive/publications/2015/03/30/content_281475080249035.htm (accessed on 18
March 2019)
two way of learning among the peoples of the countries, making them enable to understand,
trust, and respect each other so that they can live in harmony, peace, and prosperity. 3 More
broadly, Chinese leaders want to restructure the economy to avoid the “so-called middle-
income trap”, which has plagued close to 90 percent of middle-income countries since 1960.4
The salary increase and quality of life improves as low-skilled manufacturing develop, however
it is still hard for many countries to produce higher-value goods and services. Hence, Zhang
Yunling of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-backed think tank, argues that the
BRI will offer new import and export options, creating new production chains that will boost
the development of China’s economy.5 Inspired by Germany’s industry 4.0 plan, the industry
within China is about to change, starting to emphasise quality over quantity. Through this way,
Chinese policymakers believe targeted market under BRI will be more pleased to accept
higher-end Chinese industrial goods than developed countries in North America and Europe.

According to the previous paragraph, seems like China’s purpose is all about economy and its
development. However, in most of the steps taken by the state, military footprint is being left.
As the time goes, many parties realized that BRI is not purely be the economic project, but also
as an extended hand of Chinese Government to project their power, including military forces.
From neo-realist perspective, it is very common for a country have the willingness in
conquering all aspects or being hegemon in all sectors. Up until now, China still can’t be seen
as a hegemon since they still lose their military from US. One of the biggest scholar in
International Relation, Morgenthau, believe that power in economy is crucial, however,
military power is a vital aspect for a country.6 Therefore, through BRI, it can be seen that China
is trying to project their willingness to beat US as a hegemon country and steal the title of great
power in international stage.

The first military base, that also becoming the first base that China’s Government admit, is in
Djibouti one of the most troubled hotspots in the world. There are several reasons for Beijing
to establish their military in Djibouti. First, Djibouti is located at the crossroads of one of the
most hectic shipping lanes in the world. Djibouti controls access to both Red Sea and the Indian

3
Ibid.
4
Andre Chatzky and James McBride, “China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative”, Council on Foreign Relations,
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative (accessed on March 18 2019)
5
Ibid.
6
Scott Burchill, “The National Interest in International Relations Theory, New York: Palgrave Macmillan (pp.
35-36)
Ocean that links to Europe, Far East, the Horn of Africa, and the Persian Gulf.7 Second, even
though only 4% of China’s natural gas imports and 3% of its raw oil pass through, Djibouti is
strategic for its heavily trafficked sea lanes (Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait).8 Another
hidden purpose is revealed, Beijing’s interest in energy resources also being fulfilled through
securing Djibouti. China has a dependency on Middle Eastern oil and access is needed to the
Gulf of Aden and Persian Gulf. The base within Djibouti will cover the transport of raw oil
through the strait and assist them to protect oil imports from the Middle East that crossing the
Indian Ocean. In addition, the naval base also let Chinese navy to combat piracy that still exist
on the Red Sea and in Gulf of Aden. Last but not least, China is enjoying their leverage upon
Djibouti since both nations have a steady friendship in recent years. Beijing have a vision that
the naval base will also strengthens Djibouti’s position as a vital entry point in a sense
infrastructure that will broaden its trade and logistics capabilities. These leverage of China on
Djibouti is coming from China’s investment on 14 Djibouti’s major infrastructure that valued
$14.4 billion in total.9

The next military footprint is in Pakistan, one of the closest neighbour of China as well as
China’s closest ally that took a part in Belt Road plan. The first step and significant movement
coming from both states is when they signed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
agreement. Through this agreement, China begin their investment within Pakistan that worth
$46 billion. This investment is in a form of 3000km network of roads, railway lines, energy
pipelines, and fibre optic cables that will connect Kashgar in China with Gwadar, a sea port
that play a big role in shipping in Pakistan.10 Since then, CPEC become the basis of China’s
project within Pakistan, gaining Pakistan’s willingness to accept China’s overwhelming
investment under the consideration that development of Gwadar Port is crucial for the
economic prosperity of Pakistan. Realising the importance of this port and its security, both
states signed another contract for the joint construction project of sic corvettes in 2015. 11
Obviously one of those is in Gwadar sea-port, which give Beijing a better route to get goods to

7
Mordechai Chaziza, “China’s Military Base in Djibouti”, The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies,
https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/153-Chaziza-Chinas-Military-Base-in-Djibouti-web.pdf
(accessed on March 19 2019)
8
Ibid.
9
Ibid.
10
Anwar Saeed, “The Evolving Pakistan-China Maritime Economic Relationship in the Indian Ocean”, Sea
Power Centre – Australia,
http://www.navy.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/Soundings_Paper_No_13.pdf (accessed on march 19
2019)
11
Ibid.
the Arabian sea as well as a better strategic to take an action against India and US if the tension
between them getting worsen. This situation definitely gave China a better position and more
leverage upon the region both in economy and security. Pakistan is a kind of gift for China
because the country shared borders and a long history of cooperation; against India (US) ; have
the access to natural resources; and a great as well as potential market for arms sales and trade,
becoming a good shot for China to project their interest within it. In addition, Director of
strategic threat development at Recorded Future said that the focus of Belt and Road is on roads
and bridges and ports, because those are the concrete construction projects that people can
easily see. But it’s the technologies of the future and technologies of future security systems
that could be the biggest security threat in the Belt and Road Project.12

In other words, China is using their investment on a country that agreed to receive a loan from
them, make the country take a part in Belt and Road Project, and build military base gradually
on those countries that have significant spot, making the spot as a dual-use place, both for
commercial and military purposes. These steps are starting to appear to the surface, making
many countries start to rethink the cost of these projects. A “debt-trap diplomacy” is quite
famous among states, many criticisms also attack China for using the trick since many countries
end up not being able to repay their loans then China could easily project their interest within
the country using the unpayable debt. For instance, China asked for a long lease on a major
port in return for debt forgiveness when Sri Lanka’s President, Maithripala Sirisena, want to
renegotiate repayment schedule as the island’s total debt stands at $64bn.13 Sri Lanka is located
on the potential route of oil shipments from Middle East, however still haven’t being used
maximally due to be isolated from industrial, making no customers on its door. The situation
on the port is inviting China to invest in there, make it involve in Belt and Route project, then
China could project their military movement easily. Sri Lanka’s cases is proving that BRI can
be a threat for country, making the country under China’s control in stages.

Having tons of resources such as but not limited to unused land, forestry, fisheries, minerals
and scenery make Fiji is a great target for China’s project. Besides, Fiji has a foreign policy to
prioritize relationships with Asian countries, making China approach to Fiji easier. However,
China’s interest in Fiji is more than economics purposes. Starting with construction in several

12
Maria Abi-Habib, “China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Plan in Pakistan Takes a Military Turn”, The New York Times,
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/world/asia/pakistan-china-belt-road-military.html (accessed on March
19 2019)
13
Yogita Limaye, “Sri Lanka: A country trapped in debt”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40044113
(accessed on March 19 2019)
sectors, and take plus fund numerous infrastructure projects, Beijing action is shifting to naval
bases in the region. 14 Afterwards, both states also conduct a bilateral military education
exchanges and training exercises, making China gain military leverage to within the country.
Therefore, China has set the possibilities on leading Fiji in the future.

In short, China is trying to build up a new system in global level through Belt and Road
Initiative, not only in economics, but also in security. In order to fulfill the aspiration of Beijing
to become a great power and challenge current world order, permanent military bases in many
countries is needed to host warships and long-range strategic aircraft. However, Morgenthau
believe that the definition of power will shift as the time goes, it depends on who is the one
that lead the states.15 In neo-realism, power is not only based on military resources, but also
based on a states’ wealth and population. While Waltz see that state’s interest and purposes,
which only seeks for security and hegemon, is the one that control the leader. 16 Moreover,
Waltz create a prediction that those situations will make the leader project their state’s interest
automatically. 17 In this era, Waltz faith is being projected by China, which already have a
strong foundation of economy within it and trying to project it in a global scale while adding
military projection in the process. If we look back to the origin of BRI, it is revealed in 2013,
2 years after Obama formally outlined his foreign policy called “Pivot to Asia”. Back then,
Obama also tried to pull China in his strategy, but didn’t make china as a strong actor in it.
Moreover, in BRI, China seems like want to not only challenge US as a hegemon, but also beat
them. In several places, it looks like China is trying to challenge US, where US have big
leverage on the region such as Asia, Middle East and Caribbean. According to Council on
Foreign Relations, more than 60 countries, equal with two-third of the world’s population, have
signed to projects or indicated and interest on Belt and Road Initiative, and most of them are
US’ allies either in economy or military-security. 18 This movement is aligned with the

14
Eric Wilms et al, “The Belt and Road Initiative Looks East”, HCSS Global Trends,
https://hcss.nl/sites/default/files/files/reports/The_Belt_and_Road_Initiative_Looks_East.pdf (accessed on
March 20 2019)
15
Scott Burchill, “The National Interest in International Relations Theory, New York: Palgrave Macmillan (pp.
35-36)
16
Abubaka Ebihara, “Pengantar Analisa Politik Luar Negeri: dari Realisme sampai Konstrutivisme”, Nuansa
Cendekia (pp. 114)
17
Robert Jackson and George Sorensen, “Pengantar Hubungan Internasional Teori dan Pendekatan” (pp. 140-
141)
18
Andre Chatzky and James McBride, “China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative”, Council on Foreign Relations,
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative (accessed on March 18 2019)
understanding of Mearsheimer that said the international system (anarchy) is the one who
settled states action one and another.19

To sum up, BRI is lead to expansion of China’s military presence around the world since it can
carry goods as well as troops in the process. The data showed that two-third countries in the
world are interested in the project. However, looking to the incident before, they should fully
understand what is the project about, like Kenya and Zambia have done before, or will being
trapped like Sri Lanka experienced. We also can conclude that through BRI, China also finding
a vassal states by using their “debt-trap diplomacy” so that they could use them as a tool to
finish Belt and Road Initiative both in economy and military purposes, in order to reach a
hegemon position within the international system in this era.

19
Azwar Asrudin, “Thomas Kuhn dan Teori Hubungan Internasional: Realisme sebagai Paradigma”, Indonesian
Journal of International Studies 1, 2 (pp. 113)