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The student uses in real situations, the expected value, the trees of decision and the
theory of the utility in the decision making that guarantees the development and
continuity of a decision process.
Topics to develop:
1. Expected value
2. Decision Trees
3. Utility Theory
1.Valor esperado
2. Árboles de decisión
3. Teoría de la utilidad
The student must individually develop each of the exercises outlined as follows:
Step 1. In each of the Exercises, that is, from 1 to 3, the student must solve the proposed
questions by decision trees, find the expected values of the perfect and sample
information are key to determine the final efficiency in the decision making process. Take
into account the probabilities and values of the demand to go step by arming the decision
trees and calculate the values that will help you solve each of the questions in the guide.
debe resolver las preguntas propuestas mediante árboles de decisión, encontrar los
probabilidades y los valores de la demanda para ir paso a paso armando los árboles de
decisión y calcule los valores que lo ayudarán a resolver cada una de las preguntas de
la guía.
Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the Exercises
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all
the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups
the proposed Exercises is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be
done according to the contributions presented individually.
con todos los Ejercicios resueltos, el equipo discute, corrige, consolida y presenta las
los grupos de colaboración los Ejercicios propuestos no es una metodología del curso,
individualmente.
Step 2. The group will use the tool found in the practical learning environment to
immediately solve the proposed Exercises and check if the answers obtained by the
manual methods described above coincide and discuss whether the use of techno
pedagogical tools to solve Exercises of operations research.
Stage 3. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.
Next, you will find 3 exercises that make up Phase 2, these should be developed
individually. As a collaborative activity in addition to the discussion, correction,
consolidation of the final work, is the use of the online tool that is available in the practical
learning environment to check results of manual and online methods of the Exercises
raised.
Actividades a desarrollar
está disponible en el entorno de aprendizaje práctico para verificar los resultados de los
Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory And Applications, Bern,
Switzerland: H. Bunke, University Bern, Switzerland. Available in the knowledge
environment of the course.
Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of 25
years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the contrary
the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the product.
The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.
Teratex, una empresa textil que tiene una experiencia productiva en el mercado
dólares.
Demanda de baja utilidad Demanda baja promedio - utilidad Demanda alta - utilidad
Subcontrato 335353381
Comprar 318361375
According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and
Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
a. Use EVPI para determinar si la empresa debería intentar obtener una mejor
estimación de la demanda.
externo. Los beneficios dependen de la demanda del producto. La tabla muestra las
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
a. Use EVPI para determinar si la empresa debería intentar obtener una mejor
estimación de la demanda.
productos informe una condición favorable (F) o desfavorable (U). Las probabilidades
Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of
30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the
contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of
the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.
Teratextyl, una empresa textil que tiene una experiencia productiva en el mercado
extranjero de 30 años, debe decidir si fabrica un nuevo producto en su planta principal
o, por el contrario, la compra a un proveedor externo. Los beneficios dependen de la
demanda del producto. La tabla muestra las ganancias proyectadas, en millones de
dólares.
According to the corresponding information in Table 3 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and
Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
a. Use EVPI para determinar si la empresa debería intentar obtener una mejor
estimación de la demanda.
As a group activity enter the Practical Environment, this space presents a URL that will
direct them to a resource page and with the data entry they can check the solution of
each of the proposed Exercises, remember to attach screenshots to their collaborative
work final, income and table of results for the exercises.
The group leader must upload to the Evaluation and Monitoring Environment a single file
in PDF format consolidating the contributions of all the participants in the space named
Phase 2. Unit 1.
A medida que una actividad grupal ingresa al Entorno práctico, este espacio presenta una
URL que los dirigirá a una página de recursos y con la entrada de datos pueden verificar
la solución de cada uno de los Ejercicios propuestos, recuerde adjuntar capturas de
pantalla a su trabajo final de colaboración, ingresos y tabla de resultados para los
ejercicios. El líder del grupo debe cargar en el entorno de evaluación y monitoreo un solo
archivo en formato PDF que consolide las contribuciones de todos los participantes en el
espacio denominado Fase 2. Unidad 1.
Collaborative:
Página 2. Introducción.
práctico.
ecléctica.
efectiva y proactiva.
Principio de interacción.
Principio de crecimiento.
su proceso formativo.
el grupo.
maestro.
le ha enviado el documento.
la versión 6 en inglés).
Although the
document presents a
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presents an lacks some elements The basic norms for
excellent structure, of the requested the construction of
all the exercises are body or does not reports are
Structure of solved according to comply with the nonexistent like the
12
the Report the proposed norms for written criterions applied to
methodology and works. Not all the themes of the
criterions of the Exercises are solved theory of decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
criterions of the
course.