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UK

BREXIT
SHIFT
2.0
December 2018
“This shows that huge swathes of the country have changed their minds on Brexit.

“Whether they voted leave or remain in 2016, every single constituency now
supports giving the public a final say on May’s deal.

“If we do not give the public the opportunity to voice their changed opinion on the
most important decision of our lifetime, we stop being a democracy.”

David Lammy MP

“There is now overwhelming evidence that the will of the people is changing.
Every single constituency supports having a final say, and the country now clearly
wants to keep our current deal with the EU.

“I can’t look my constituents in the eye and honestly tell them they’ll be better
off if Brexit goes ahead. They know that not to be true, and so do I. Brexit is the
biggest political decision for a generation so it’s only right that the people have
the final say.”

Dominic Grieve MP
MAJOR NEW ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT BRITAIN
HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER ON BREXIT:
TWO THIRDS OF CONSTITUENCIES
NOW BACK STAYING IN THE EU

422 of 632 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales

(Great Britain) now have majority support for remain.

324 of 533 English constituencies now back staying in the EU,

as do all Scottish seats and all but one seat in Wales

193 more constituencies want to stay in the EU than

in June 2016

Our August 2018 research showed that 112 constituencies

had switched from majority leave to majority remain support,
with another 81 seats that have since moved, making a total
of 193 switch seats

All constituencies in Great Britain now back the public having

a final say on Brexit

1
The analysis follows on from research released in August 2018, and shows that there has
been a substantial trend towards remaining in the EU since the 2016 EU referendum.
Our research shows that the country has moved significantly since 2016, with two thirds
of constituencies in Great Britain now wanting to stay with our existing deal.
There is majority support for a final say for the people in every single one of the 632
constituencies analysed in this research. This research also shows that, in the event of a people’s
vote, staying in the EU would win by 56% to 44% leave - the highest level of support for
staying in the EU since the June 2016 vote.
For the first time, England joins Scotland and Wales as having a majority of constituencies
that support membership of the European Union; clear evidence that the question of the
2016 EU referendum needs to be revisited.
This analysis is one of the clearest signs yet, particularly when combined with other consistent
polls on the subject, that the British people would back remain by a significant margin in the
event of a people’s vote.

Top 20 Constituencies with the largest overall

shift towards remain

Nov 2018 Remain diff

Constituency MP Remain Vote 2016 - Nov 2018
Middlesbrough Andy McDonald 48.8% 14.9%
Liverpool Walton Dan Carden 60.7% 14.5%
Barking Margaret Hodge 54.2% 14.5%
West Ham Lyn Brown 67.0% 14.4%
Hull, West & Hessle Emma Hardy 46.5% 14.3%
Hull, North Diana Johnson 54.3% 14.3%
Rhondda Chris Bryant 53.0% 14.2%
East Ham Stephen Timms 67.2% 14.1%
Hayes & Harlington John McDonnell 54.5% 13.9%
Slough Tan Dhesi 59.5% 13.6%
Knowsley George Howarth 61.0% 13.4%
Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips 53.2% 13.3%
Barnsley, Central Dan Jarvis 44.9% 13.3%
Bootle Peter Dowd 58.4% 13.3%
Hull, East Karl Turner 40.6% 13.2%
Bradford, East Imran Hussain 57.9% 13.1%
Warley John Spellar 51.3% 13.1%
Luton, North Kelvin Hopkins 54.8% 13.0%
Coventry, North East Colleen Fletcher 53.8% 13.0%
Preston Mark Hendrick 56.0% 12.9%

141 seats in Great Britain have moved more than 10% towards remain since the 2016 referendum.
These include seats in Middlesbrough, Derby, Stoke-on-Trent, and Doncaster, and 67 of these seats
have moved from majority leave to remain since 2016.
Voters in the North East, Yorkshire & Humberside and the North West have moved the most on Brexit
since the referendum. 10.2% more voters in the North East would vote remain in a people’s vote, whilst
9.3% of voters in both Yorkshire & Humberside and the North West would also back staying in the EU.
In a notable change, both the North East and Yorkshire & Humberside would now vote remain (by 52.0%
and 51.6% respectively) for the first time.
56.2% of voters in Wales now back staying in the EU - a significant change from the 2016 referendum
result where 52.5% of voters backed Leave. 39 of 40 seats would back remain. Rhondda, for instance,
was one of the highest leave voting constituencies in Wales in 2016. Our analysis shows that it would now
vote remain by 53.0% (14.2% shift), the largest shift in Wales of its kind.

2
Even those regions that have moved the least show significant movement since 2016 and would also
now vote remain in the event of a people’s vote. 5.9% more voters in the South East would vote remain,
as would 6.5% of voters in the South West, showing that even in areas that are moving the least on Brexit,
there is still a significant movement towards backing the UK’s membership of the EU.
Thangam Debbonaire’s seat of Bristol West is now the most remain seat in Great Britain, with 84.7% of voters
backing remaining in the European Union. This is closely followed by both Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn
in 2nd and 3rd positions respectively, with 84.4% and 84.3% of voters in their constituencies wanting to stay
in the European Union.
Every one of the 632 seats in Great Britain has moved towards remain since June 2016. The largest
movements can be seen in Labour seats that backed leave in 2016, with Labour holding 49 of the top 50
seats with the largest swings towards remain.
There has also been a distinct move by Conservative seats towards remain. 50 of the 81 seats that have
switched from leave to remain since July 2018 are Conservative seats, predominantly in the East, South
East and South West regions of England. In total, 91 Conservative seats have switched from leave
to remain since 2016.
Our analysis shows that Amber Rudd’s seat of Hastings and Rye has switched so that the majority of voters
now back remain (43.8% in 2016 to 50.5% in November 2018), whilst Cabinet Minister and Brexiteer
Andrea Leadsom’s constituency of Northamptonshire South would now also back remain by 51.2%.
On the people’s vote side, it is clear there has been a substantial change. For the first time, all 632 seats
in Great Britain would back a final say on the Brexit deal. Given that the government’s own position is against
a people’s vote, they are at odds with their own constituents’ wishes.
Even at the lowest ends of the scale, the support for a people’s vote is substantial. In Louth and Horncastle,
the seat with the lowest number of voters backing a people’s vote, 56.1% people agree that the public
should be given a final say on the Brexit deal. Boston and Skegness, one of the most leave voting seats
in the country in 2016, supports a final say by 56.8% to 43.2%.
Opinion polls, both on a national and constituency level, have shown a decisive shift in public opinion
on Brexit. At 56:44, this analysis is the most decisive result yet and a clear indicator to parliamentarians
that the Government’s proposed course is not in the interests or wishes of the country.

Top 20 constituencies that have switched since 2016

from leave to remain

June 2016 Nov 2018 Remain diff

Constituency MP Remain vote Remain Vote 2016 - Nov 2018
Liverpool Walton Dan Carden 46.2% 60.7% 14.5%
Barking Margaret Hodge 39.7% 54.2% 14.5%
Hull, North Diana Johnson 40.0% 54.3% 14.3%
Rhondda Chris Bryant 38.8% 53.0% 14.2%
Hayes & Harlington John McDonnell 40.6% 54.5% 13.9%
Slough Tan Dhesi 45.9% 59.5% 13.6%
Knowsley George Howarth 47.6% 61.0% 13.4%
Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips 39.9% 53.2% 13.3%
Bootle Peter Dowd 45.1% 58.4% 13.3%
Bradford, East Imran Hussain 44.8% 57.9% 13.1%
Warley John Spellar 38.2% 51.3% 13.1%
Luton, North Kelvin Hopkins 41.8% 54.8% 13.0%
Coventry, North East Colleen Fletcher 40.8% 53.8% 13.0%
Preston Mark Hendrick 43.1% 56.0% 12.9%
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Gerald Jones 41.6% 54.4% 12.8%
Derby, South Margaret Beckett 38.4% 51.1% 12.7%
Halton Derek Twigg 42.2% 54.9% 12.7%
Feltham & Heston Seema Malhotra 44.1% 56.8% 12.7%
Swansea, East Carolyn Harris 37.9% 50.5% 12.6%
Sheffield Brightside & Gill Furniss 38.6% 51.2% 12.6%
Hillsborough
3
Constituencies that have switched from
leave to remain since June 2016

June 2016 Nov 2018 June 2016 Nov 2018

Constituency Region Remain Vote Remain Vote Constituency Region Remain Vote Remain Vote
Broxtowe East Midlands 47.6% 54.2% Denton & Reddish North West 39.0% 50.7%
Derby, North East Midlands 46.3% 54.9% Eddisbury North West 47.8% 51.9%
Derby, South East Midlands 38.4% 51.1% Ellesmere Port & Neston North West 42.2% 51.6%
Derbyshire Dales East Midlands 48.7% 51.7% Halton North West 42.2% 54.9%
Derbyshire, Mid East Midlands 47.5% 52.7% Hazel Grove North West 47.8% 54.8%
Gedling East Midlands 43.8% 52.1% Knowsley North West 47.6% 61.0%
Harborough East Midlands 47.8% 53.0% Lancashire, West North West 45.1% 52.7%
High Peak East Midlands 49.5% 56.2% Lancaster & Fleetwood North West 49.1% 56.5%
Leicester, East East Midlands 46.8% 58.3% Liverpool Walton North West 46.2% 60.7%
Leicester, West East Midlands 48.3% 58.9% Liverpool West Derby North West 49.7% 62.1%
Lincoln East Midlands 42.7% 51.0% Oldham, East & Saddleworth North West 40.1% 50.6%
Northampton, South East Midlands 40.4% 50.8% Oldham, West & Royton North West 38.7% 51.2%
Northamptonshire, South East Midlands 47.3% 51.2% Preston North West 43.1% 56.0%
Bedford East 48.1% 56.3% Rochdale North West 42.5% 54.5%
Bedfordshire, Mid East 47.7% 51.8% Salford & Eccles North West 46.4% 58.3%
Bedfordshire, North East East 46.7% 50.7% St. Helens, North North West 41.7% 52.1%
Bury St. Edmunds East 46.3% 50.8% St. Helens, South & Whiston North West 43.9% 55.3%
Chelmsford East 49.5% 56.1% Stalybridge & Hyde North West 40.7% 51.9%
Colchester East 48.9% 57.4% Warrington, North North West 41.4% 51.1%
Hemel Hempstead East 44.8% 52.0% Warrington, South North West 49.4% 57.2%
Hertsmere East 49.2% 53.9% Weaver Vale North West 49.8% 56.7%
Huntingdon East 46.7% 52.6% Worsley & Eccles South North West 40.2% 50.6%
Ipswich East 43.4% 52.0% Wyre & Preston North North West 46.0% 51.1%
Luton, North East 41.8% 54.8% Banff & Buchan Scotland 46.0% 54.6%
Luton, South East 44.6% 56.5% Aldershot South East 42.1% 50.6%
Norfolk, South East 48.9% 52.1% Arundel & South Downs South East 49.3% 51.3%
Norwich, North East 42.7% 50.1% Aylesbury South East 47.9% 53.7%
Saffron Walden East 49.1% 52.8% Banbury South East 49.5% 54.6%
Stevenage East 42.9% 51.0% Basingstoke South East 46.4% 53.5%
Suffolk, Central & North Ipswich East 45.5% 50.6% Bracknell South East 46.7% 53.6%
Watford East 48.8% 57.5% Chichester South East 49.4% 52.3%
Welwyn Hatfield East 47.5% 55.5% Crawley South East 41.6% 50.5%
Barking London 39.7% 54.2% Eastleigh South East 46.0% 52.6%
Carshalton & Wallington London 43.7% 53.3% Hampshire, North West South East 45.5% 50.6%
Croydon, Central London 49.7% 59.3% Hastings & Rye South East 43.8% 50.5%
Eltham London 48.2% 56.6% Maidstone & The Weald South East 44.1% 50.6%
Erith & Thamesmead London 45.7% 56.5% Meon Valley South East 47.1% 50.4%
Feltham & Heston London 44.1% 56.8% Milton Keynes, South South East 47.0% 54.6%
Hayes & Harlington London 40.6% 54.5% Portsmouth, South South East 48.2% 60.0%
Ilford, North London 47.4% 57.1% Reading, West South East 47.3% 56.1%
Sutton & Cheam London 48.7% 57.1% Sevenoaks South East 46.1% 50.3%
Uxbridge & Ruislip South London 43.6% 53.5% Slough South East 45.9% 59.5%
Berwick-upon-Tweed North East 44.4% 50.1% Southampton Itchen South East 40.0% 51.1%
Blaydon North East 43.7% 53.3% Southampton Test South East 49.3% 60.7%
Darlington North East 41.9% 51.6% Southend, West South East 44.9% 51.6%
Durham North West North East 45.0% 52.7% Surrey East South East 45.8% 50.2%
Gateshead North East 44.0% 55.5% Surrey Heath South East 48.0% 52.0%
Jarrow North East 38.4% 50.5% Tonbridge & Malling South East 47.4% 50.3%
Newcastle upon Tyne, North North East 42.9% 53.0% Wealden South East 47.5% 50.5%
Stockton, South North East 42.2% 51.3% Worthing, East & Shoreham South East 46.3% 53.0%
Sunderland, Central North East 40.1% 51.3% Bournemouth, East South West 46.5% 54.0%
Tyneside, North North East 40.6% 51.8% Bournemouth, West South West 42.1% 50.7%
Wansbeck North East 43.8% 53.1% Chippenham South West 47.7% 53.7%
Washington & Sunderland West North East 38.1% 50.5% Devizes South West 48.5% 52.0%
Barrow & Furness North West 43.2% 50.3% Devon, Central South West 48.8% 52.7%
Birkenhead North West 48.3% 60.6% Devon, East South West 49.5% 52.5%
Blackburn North West 46.3% 58.2% Dorset, West South West 49.0% 52.4%
Blackley & Broughton North West 48.7% 60.1% Kingswood South West 43.2% 50.3%
Bolton, North East North West 42.2% 52.0% Newton Abbot South West 43.9% 50.2%
Bolton, West North West 44.5% 52.5% Plymouth Sutton & Devonport South West 45.6% 55.8%
Bootle North West 45.1% 58.4% Poole South West 43.1% 50.4%
Bury North North West 46.3% 55.1% Salisbury South West 49.7% 53.9%
Bury South North West 45.5% 54.0% Somerset, North East South West 47.9% 53.8%
Chorley North West 43.4% 52.1% Somerton & Frome South West 49.0% 52.9%
Congleton North West 47.3% 51.6% St. Ives South West 44.9% 51.3%
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 June 2016 Nov 2018
Constituency Region Remain Vote Remain Vote
Swindon, North South West 42.6% 50.2%
Swindon, South South West 48.4% 56.1%
Taunton Deane South West 47.1% 52.2%
Tewkesbury South West 46.2% 50.1%
Thornbury & Yate South West 46.7% 52.5%
Totnes South West 45.9% 51.1%
Wells South West 46.5% 50.7%
Weston-Super-Mare South West 43.3% 50.3%
Wiltshire, North South West 49.6% 53.5%
Aberavon Wales 40.0% 52.2%
Aberconwy Wales 46.6% 53.8%
Alyn & Deeside Wales 42.3% 51.1%
Blaenau Gwent Wales 38.0% 50.5%
Brecon & Radnorshire Wales 48.3% 52.6%
Caerphilly Wales 44.8% 55.5%
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Wales 46.2% 53.6%
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South Wales 44.6% 51.0%
Clwyd, West Wales 47.5% 52.9%
Cynon Valley Wales 43.0% 53.6%
Delyn Wales 45.2% 52.8%
Gower Wales 49.8% 56.5%
Islwyn Wales 41.1% 51.2%
Llanelli Wales 44.5% 54.8%
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Wales 41.6% 54.4%
Montgomeryshire Wales 44.0% 50.2%
Neath Wales 45.8% 56.3%
Newport, East Wales 39.7% 50.4%
Newport, West Wales 47.0% 55.6%
Ogmore Wales 40.2% 51.1%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 44.2% 51.6%
Rhondda Wales 38.8% 53.0%
Swansea, East Wales 37.9% 50.5%
Torfaen Wales 39.1% 50.5%
Vale of Clwyd Wales 44.1% 52.4%
Vale of Glamorgan Wales 47.7% 54.3%
Wrexham Wales 42.7% 52.2%
Ynys Mon Wales 49.1% 56.7%
Birmingham Hodge Hill West Midlands 48.5% 60.7%
Birmingham Perry Barr West Midlands 48.8% 60.3%
Birmingham Yardley West Midlands 39.9% 53.2%
Coventry, North East West Midlands 40.8% 53.8%
Coventry, North West West Midlands 41.3% 52.1%
Hertfordshire, North East West Midlands 48.6% 53.0%
Shrewsbury & Atcham West Midlands 47.0% 52.8%
Solihull West Midlands 46.7% 52.8%
Stratford-on-Avon West Midlands 48.8% 51.9%
Sutton Coldfield West Midlands 48.3% 53.3%
Walsall, South West Midlands 38.4% 50.1%
Warley West Midlands 38.2% 51.3%
Wolverhampton, South West West Midlands 45.6% 54.5%
Worcester West Midlands 46.3% 54.6%
Bradford, East Yorkshire & Humberside 44.8% 57.9%
Calder Valley Yorkshire & Humberside 46.8% 53.9%
Dewsbury Yorkshire & Humberside 42.7% 51.1%
Halifax Yorkshire & Humberside 41.2% 51.5%
Huddersfield Yorkshire & Humberside 48.9% 59.6%
Hull, North Yorkshire & Humberside 40.0% 54.3%
Keighley Yorkshire & Humberside 46.7% 53.1%
Leeds, East Yorkshire & Humberside 39.1% 51.4%
Leeds, West Yorkshire & Humberside 45.0% 57.3%
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Yorkshire & Humberside 38.6% 51.2%
Sheffield Heeley Yorkshire & Humberside 42.4% 54.4%
Shipley Yorkshire & Humberside 47.8% 54.7%

5
All Constituencies

June Aug Nov June Aug Nov

2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final 2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final
Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say
Aberavon 40.0% 49.9% 52.2% Remain 68.0% Bishop Auckland 39.4% 45.3% 47.8% Leave 62.5%
Aberconwy 46.6% 50.3% 53.8% Remain 63.0% Blackburn 46.3% 54.1% 58.2% Remain 70.2%
Aberdeen, North 56.9% 64.9% 69.4% Remain 74.2% Blackley & Broughton 48.7% 59.0% 60.1% Remain 71.4%
Aberdeen, South 67.7% 68.5% 73.2% Remain 70.3% Blackpool, North & Cleveleys 33.1% 43.7% 43.7% Leave 63.5%
Aberdeenshire, West & Kincardine 61.4% 58.5% 67.3% Remain 67.1% Blackpool, South 32.2% 41.8% 44.0% Leave 65.2%
Airdrie & Shotts 59.9% 60.6% 68.7% Remain 72.3% Blaenau Gwent 38.0% 49.6% 50.5% Remain 69.7%
Aldershot 42.1% 48.9% 50.6% Remain 65.1% Blaydon 43.7% 50.0% 53.3% Remain 67.1%
Aldridge-Brownhills 32.2% 37.7% 39.2% Leave 60.0% Blyth Valley 40.1% 48.4% 49.4% Leave 66.0%
Altrincham & Sale West 61.5% 61.3% 65.3% Remain 66.6% Bognor Regis & Littlehampton 35.8% 39.1% 41.9% Leave 59.2%
Alyn & Deeside 42.3% 49.4% 51.1% Remain 65.4% Bolsover 29.7% 38.6% 39.9% Leave 63.3%
Amber Valley 34.7% 43.1% 42.3% Leave 61.8% Bolton, North East 42.2% 48.7% 52.0% Remain 65.8%
Angus 51.9% 56.6% 59.6% Remain 66.1% Bolton, South East 36.6% 46.2% 48.8% Leave 67.6%
Arfon 65.1% 67.7% 71.3% Remain 72.2% Bolton, West 44.5% 49.7% 52.5% Remain 65.5%
Argyll & Bute 60.6% 64.6% 67.6% Remain 68.6% Bootle 45.1% 56.5% 58.4% Remain 71.9%
Arundel & South Downs 49.3% 48.8% 51.3% Remain 58.7% Boston & Skegness 25.0% 31.1% 31.5% Leave 56.8%
Ashfield 29.4% 38.9% 38.9% Leave 63.1% Bosworth 39.2% 43.4% 44.6% Leave 61.0%
Ashford 40.3% 43.0% 46.5% Leave 61.2% Bournemouth, East 46.5% 53.3% 54.0% Remain 65.9%
Ashton-under-Lyne 38.2% 47.6% 49.4% Leave 66.8% Bournemouth, West 42.1% 47.8% 50.7% Remain 64.8%
Aylesbury 47.9% 53.0% 53.7% Remain 64.4% Bracknell 46.7% 52.6% 53.6% Remain 64.2%
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 57.0% 58.5% 63.4% Remain 67.5% Bradford, East 44.8% 56.1% 57.9% Remain 70.5%
Ayrshire, Central 57.3% 61.6% 65.3% Remain 69.5% Bradford, South 36.4% 44.5% 47.0% Leave 66.3%
Ayrshire, North & Arran 57.7% 60.4% 64.5% Remain 68.9% Bradford, West 53.3% 60.8% 64.7% Remain 72.8%
Banbury 49.5% 51.7% 54.6% Remain 63.5% Braintree 38.6% 43.8% 43.8% Leave 60.4%
Banff & Buchan 46.0% 51.2% 54.6% Remain 65.8% Brecon & Radnorshire 48.3% 49.8% 52.6% Remain 61.1%
Barking 39.7% 51.5% 54.2% Remain 70.5% Brent, Central 57.1% 65.1% 68.2% Remain 73.5%
Barnsley, Central 31.6% 48.8% 44.9% Leave 67.9% Brent, North 56.9% 63.3% 66.3% Remain 70.5%
Barnsley, East 29.2% 40.0% 42.0% Leave 66.3% Brentford & Isleworth 56.7% 63.9% 65.2% Remain 69.9%
Barrow & Furness 43.2% 46.8% 50.3% Remain 63.9% Brentwood & Ongar 39.1% 41.6% 43.3% Leave 58.5%
Basildon & Billericay 33.1% 38.9% 41.3% Leave 61.5% Bridgend 50.3% 55.6% 57.5% Remain 65.9%
Basildon, South & Thurrock East 26.9% 34.6% 35.5% Leave 61.1% Bridgwater & Somerset West 37.8% 40.5% 42.9% Leave 59.4%
Basingstoke 46.4% 50.8% 53.5% Remain 65.7% Brigg & Goole 33.8% 39.5% 41.4% Leave 60.0%
Bassetlaw 31.7% 38.1% 40.2% Leave 62.5% Brighton Kemptown 56.6% 61.1% 64.0% Remain 68.8%
Bath 68.3% 71.2% 73.3% Remain 71.7% Brighton Pavilion 74.3% 75.7% 79.0% Remain 71.8%
Batley & Spen 39.6% 46.0% 49.4% Leave 65.7% Bristol East 53.2% 61.1% 62.2% Remain 70.6%
Battersea 77.0% 75.7% 79.9% Remain 73.4% Bristol, North West 61.1% 63.0% 67.2% Remain 69.2%
Beaconsfield 50.7% 51.0% 54.4% Remain 61.1% Bristol, South 52.0% 58.9% 62.0% Remain 70.5%
Beckenham 51.6% 53.3% 57.1% Remain 63.1% Bristol, West 79.3% 81.3% 84.7% Remain 77.8%
Bedford 48.1% 57.0% 56.3% Remain 67.2% Broadland 45.9% 45.7% 49.9% Leave 60.5%
Bedfordshire, Mid 47.7% 49.6% 51.8% Remain 62.3% Bromley & Chislehurst 50.2% 52.3% 56.8% Remain 65.1%
Bedfordshire, North East 46.7% 48.0% 50.7% Remain 61.5% Bromsgrove 44.6% 47.0% 48.9% Leave 61.1%
Bedfordshire, South West 41.4% 48.4% 48.1% Leave 63.0% Broxbourne 34.2% 40.1% 41.3% Leave 61.4%
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 73.0% 78.0% 79.9% Remain 77.5% Broxtowe 47.6% 53.3% 54.2% Remain 65.0%
Berwick-upon-Tweed 44.4% 47.8% 50.1% Remain 60.3% Buckingham 51.3% 57.9% 57.6% Remain 69.1%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 56.8% 54.3% 61.7% Remain 64.0% Burnley 33.4% 45.4% 46.1% Leave 66.3%
Bethnal Green & Bow 69.1% 75.7% 78.3% Remain 77.7% Burton 35.4% 42.1% 43.9% Leave 62.4%
Beverley & Holderness 41.2% 43.6% 46.7% Leave 60.6% Bury North 46.3% 52.3% 55.1% Remain 66.4%
Bexhill & Battle 42.3% 43.1% 45.5% Leave 57.5% Bury South 45.5% 53.1% 54.0% Remain 66.6%
Bexleyheath & Crayford 35.0% 43.5% 44.4% Leave 62.8% Bury St. Edmunds 46.3% 49.2% 50.8% Remain 61.5%
Birkenhead 48.3% 58.4% 60.6% Remain 71.4% Caerphilly 44.8% 52.0% 55.5% Remain 67.9%
Birmingham Edgbaston 52.7% 58.0% 61.0% Remain 68.1% Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 50.6% 56.8% 60.1% Remain 68.5%
Birmingham Erdington 37.0% 47.3% 49.7% Leave 67.6% Calder Valley 46.8% 52.2% 53.9% Remain 64.5%
Birmingham Hall Green 66.4% 69.3% 74.2% Remain 74.7% Camberwell & Peckham 69.8% 76.0% 78.3% Remain 77.4%
Birmingham Hodge Hill 48.5% 56.9% 60.7% Remain 71.5% Camborne & Redruth 42.1% 46.9% 48.8% Leave 62.4%
Birmingham Ladywood 64.4% 72.1% 73.4% Remain 75.9% Cambridge 73.8% 76.9% 79.2% Remain 75.6%
Birmingham Northfield 38.2% 49.2% 49.7% Leave 66.9% Cambridgeshire, North East 30.6% 35.4% 37.1% Leave 59.3%
Birmingham Perry Barr 48.8% 55.9% 60.3% Remain 70.6% Cambridgeshire, North West 43.0% 44.0% 48.5% Leave 61.4%
Birmingham Selly Oak 53.1% 60.7% 63.1% Remain 70.4% Cambridgeshire, South 61.6% 60.1% 63.6% Remain 65.1%
Birmingham Yardley 39.9% 52.3% 53.2% Remain 69.9% Cambridgeshire, South East 55.0% 56.9% 59.5% Remain 64.5%

6
 June Aug Nov June Aug Nov
2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final 2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final
Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say
Cannock Chase 31.1% 39.1% 39.5% Leave 62.4% Derby, South 38.4% 48.8% 51.1% Remain 67.5%
Canterbury 54.7% 57.2% 60.9% Remain 65.8% Derbyshire Dales 48.7% 48.3% 51.7% Remain 59.3%
Cardiff, Central 69.6% 72.2% 76.3% Remain 74.9% Derbyshire, Mid 47.5% 50.1% 52.7% Remain 62.1%
Cardiff, North 60.9% 62.5% 66.3% Remain 68.0% Derbyshire, North East 37.8% 43.1% 45.2% Leave 62.2%
Cardiff, South & Penarth 55.1% 57.5% 63.8% Remain 70.5% Derbyshire, South 39.6% 44.5% 45.8% Leave 61.7%
Cardiff, West 55.2% 61.1% 63.7% Remain 70.5% Devizes 48.5% 48.3% 52.0% Remain 60.9%
Carlisle 39.5% 46.2% 48.0% Leave 63.6% Devon, Central 48.8% 49.5% 52.7% Remain 60.8%
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 46.2% 50.1% 53.6% Remain 65.1% Devon, East 49.5% 50.7% 52.5% Remain 60.3%
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South 44.6% 47.5% 51.0% Remain 62.5% Devon, North 43.0% 47.3% 48.9% Leave 61.6%
Carshalton & Wallington 43.7% 51.3% 53.3% Remain 67.2% Devon, South West 44.8% 46.7% 49.5% Leave 59.9%
Castle Point 27.3% 34.2% 34.0% Leave 58.8% Devon, West & Torridge 42.9% 44.0% 46.7% Leave 59.0%
Ceredigion 54.6% 57.7% 62.0% Remain 68.8% Dewsbury 42.7% 45.9% 51.1% Remain 64.9%
Charnwood 41.7% 44.1% 47.5% Leave 60.9% Don Valley 31.4% 39.5% 41.8% Leave 64.0%
Chatham & Aylesford 35.3% 40.2% 43.1% Leave 63.5% Doncaster, Central 33.7% 42.7% 44.5% Leave 65.2%
Cheadle 57.3% 60.3% 62.5% Remain 66.7% Doncaster, North 27.9% 40.6% 39.4% Leave 65.7%
Chelmsford 49.5% 55.3% 56.1% Remain 65.7% Dorset, Mid & Poole North 42.1% 43.2% 47.6% Leave 61.0%
Chelsea & Fulham 70.8% 69.8% 73.4% Remain 69.3% Dorset, North 43.6% 45.6% 46.8% Leave 59.3%
Cheltenham 57.2% 62.2% 63.3% Remain 67.4% Dorset, South 40.5% 43.3% 46.3% Leave 60.0%
Chesham & Amersham 55.0% 56.7% 58.6% Remain 62.2% Dorset, West 49.0% 50.4% 52.4% Remain 60.3%
Chester, City of 54.0% 61.0% 62.9% Remain 67.0% Dover 36.9% 43.2% 43.4% Leave 61.0%
Chesterfield 40.7% 48.8% 49.9% Leave 65.6% Dudley, North 28.6% 37.8% 39.3% Leave 63.2%
Chichester 49.4% 49.1% 52.3% Remain 60.7% Dudley, South 29.6% 39.7% 38.9% Leave 62.1%
Chingford & Woodford Green 50.8% 56.4% 58.7% Remain 66.8% Dulwich & West Norwood 77.9% 80.7% 82.8% Remain 77.1%
Chippenham 47.7% 50.9% 53.7% Remain 63.4% Dumfries & Galloway 54.6% 56.2% 60.9% Remain 66.5%
Chipping Barnet 59.1% 60.7% 65.4% Remain 68.4% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale 56.1% 57.9% 61.5% Remain 64.9%
Chorley 43.4% 49.0% 52.1% Remain 65.4% Dunbartonshire East 73.3% 76.8% 79.7% Remain 75.5%
Christchurch 40.1% 41.9% 43.0% Leave 57.5% Dunbartonshire, West 62.0% 67.3% 71.7% Remain 74.2%
Cities of London & Westminster 71.4% 71.6% 74.5% Remain 70.6% Dundee, East 61.7% 64.9% 69.8% Remain 72.1%
Clacton 28.9% 32.9% 33.8% Leave 57.0% Dundee, West 58.8% 65.8% 70.0% Remain 74.0%
Cleethorpes 31.6% 38.2% 39.2% Leave 61.0% Dunfermline & Fife West 60.0% 65.3% 68.6% Remain 72.5%
Clwyd, South 39.7% 47.5% 48.9% Leave 64.4% Durham North 39.9% 47.4% 49.5% Leave 66.2%
Clwyd, West 47.5% 50.0% 52.9% Remain 63.2% Durham North West 45.0% 49.8% 52.7% Remain 65.5%
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 61.3% 67.4% 70.8% Remain 74.7% Durham, City of 55.6% 59.7% 63.0% Remain 68.8%
Colchester 48.9% 57.0% 57.4% Remain 67.4% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 51.6% 54.1% 57.9% Remain 65.9%
Colne Valley 50.2% 52.9% 57.4% Remain 65.7% Ealing Central & Acton 70.8% 73.0% 75.7% Remain 72.3%
Congleton 47.3% 49.6% 51.6% Remain 60.7% Ealing North 53.7% 61.3% 64.7% Remain 71.1%
Copeland 40.2% 44.2% 46.4% Leave 61.5% Ealing Southall 58.2% 65.3% 68.2% Remain 72.5%
Corby 39.9% 45.6% 47.1% Leave 63.1% Easington 33.4% 46.2% 45.6% Leave 67.6%
Cornwall, North 39.7% 45.2% 45.3% Leave 60.3% East Ham 53.1% 66.6% 67.2% Remain 74.4%
Cornwall, South East 45.1% 46.4% 49.7% Leave 60.5% East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 62.0% 65.5% 70.3% Remain 72.5%
Cotswolds, The 52.2% 52.5% 54.1% Remain 60.6% East Lothian 64.6% 66.2% 70.4% Remain 70.9%
Coventry, North East 40.8% 50.7% 53.8% Remain 69.5% Eastbourne 42.4% 48.6% 49.3% Leave 63.2%
Coventry, North West 41.3% 49.0% 52.1% Remain 66.6% Eastleigh 46.0% 50.7% 52.6% Remain 64.8%
Coventry, South 51.1% 56.5% 59.5% Remain 67.9% Eddisbury 47.8% 48.1% 51.9% Remain 60.4%
Crawley 41.6% 49.3% 50.5% Remain 65.9% Edinburgh, East 72.4% 73.6% 78.5% Remain 75.9%
Crewe & Nantwich 41.0% 46.4% 48.6% Leave 64.1% Edinburgh, North & Leith 78.2% 78.7% 82.1% Remain 75.8%
Croydon, Central 49.7% 58.8% 59.3% Remain 68.9% Edinburgh, South 77.8% 79.4% 82.1% Remain 75.9%
Croydon, North 58.8% 64.9% 67.6% Remain 72.4% Edinburgh, South West 72.1% 69.8% 75.6% Remain 72.7%
Croydon, South 54.2% 55.3% 59.7% Remain 65.0% Edinburgh, West 71.2% 72.8% 75.9% Remain 73.5%
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 61.2% 65.2% 71.1% Remain 73.8% Edmonton 54.5% 60.0% 64.8% Remain 71.4%
Cynon Valley 43.0% 50.4% 53.6% Remain 67.7% Ellesmere Port & Neston 42.2% 50.4% 51.6% Remain 65.4%
Dagenham & Rainham 30.1% 40.7% 41.0% Leave 65.4% Elmet & Rothwell 43.6% 46.8% 49.1% Leave 62.3%
Darlington 41.9% 46.8% 51.6% Remain 65.4% Eltham 48.2% 53.4% 56.6% Remain 68.0%
Dartford 36.0% 43.5% 43.6% Leave 62.9% Enfield North 50.8% 58.6% 59.5% Remain 68.6%
Daventry 41.2% 41.1% 45.5% Leave 58.1% Enfield Southgate 62.1% 64.1% 67.6% Remain 68.7%
Delyn 45.2% 48.4% 52.8% Remain 64.9% Epping Forest 38.9% 43.0% 45.7% Leave 60.9%
Denton & Reddish 39.0% 49.8% 50.7% Remain 68.9% Epsom & Ewell 52.0% 53.9% 56.8% Remain 63.3%
Derby, North 46.3% 52.0% 54.9% Remain 65.9% Erewash 36.7% 42.9% 45.3% Leave 63.5%

7
 June Aug Nov June Aug Nov
2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final 2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final
Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say
Erith & Thamesmead 45.7% 55.3% 56.5% Remain 69.3% Hemel Hempstead 44.8% 49.4% 52.0% Remain 64.6%
Esher & Walton 58.4% 58.6% 60.9% Remain 64.2% Hemsworth 31.9% 41.8% 42.6% Leave 64.6%
Exeter 55.3% 61.6% 63.1% Remain 69.9% Hendon 58.1% 60.6% 65.5% Remain 68.9%
Falkirk 58.0% 65.3% 66.5% Remain 71.9% Henley 56.9% 53.3% 58.8% Remain 60.8%
Fareham 44.6% 45.1% 49.7% Leave 61.7% Hereford & Herefordshire South 39.8% 44.9% 46.5% Leave 61.3%
Faversham & Mid Kent 41.8% 41.9% 46.6% Leave 60.0% Herefordshire, North 41.7% 43.1% 45.9% Leave 58.2%
Feltham & Heston 44.1% 55.3% 56.8% Remain 70.6% Hertford & Stortford 50.8% 51.2% 56.2% Remain 63.5%
Fife, North East 61.9% 65.3% 68.7% Remain 70.5% Hertfordshire, North East 48.6% 51.4% 53.0% Remain 61.7%
Filton & Bradley Stoke 52.0% 55.5% 59.3% Remain 66.5% Hertfordshire, South West 53.6% 55.0% 58.0% Remain 63.1%
Finchley & Golders Green 69.1% 69.0% 72.5% Remain 69.3% Hertsmere 49.2% 52.7% 53.9% Remain 62.7%
Folkestone & Hythe 38.2% 40.1% 44.2% Leave 60.7% Hexham 54.6% 53.9% 57.3% Remain 61.0%
Forest of Dean 41.9% 43.5% 46.8% Leave 60.5% Heywood & Middleton 37.6% 42.8% 47.5% Leave 66.0%
Fylde 43.4% 44.6% 48.7% Leave 60.0% High Peak 49.5% 53.7% 56.2% Remain 64.6%
Gainsborough 38.0% 40.6% 43.3% Leave 58.4% Hitchin & Harpenden 60.2% 59.6% 63.4% Remain 65.1%
Garston & Halewood 52.1% 62.2% 63.7% Remain 72.2% Holborn & St. Pancras 73.3% 75.1% 77.6% Remain 75.2%
Gateshead 44.0% 55.2% 55.5% Remain 69.5% Hornchurch & Upminster 30.5% 37.1% 37.8% Leave 60.2%
Gedling 43.8% 52.4% 52.1% Remain 65.4% Hornsey & Wood Green 75.0% 78.2% 81.9% Remain 76.6%
Gillingham & Rainham 36.4% 43.1% 45.1% Leave 63.0% Horsham 51.3% 51.9% 55.5% Remain 62.5%
Glasgow, Central 72.1% 73.9% 78.7% Remain 77.4% Houghton & Sunderland South 37.6% 46.3% 48.8% Leave 66.9%
Glasgow, East 56.2% 60.0% 66.0% Remain 72.3% Hove 66.1% 68.7% 72.5% Remain 71.6%
Glasgow, North 78.4% 76.2% 81.9% Remain 76.6% Huddersfield 48.9% 56.7% 59.6% Remain 69.2%
Glasgow, North East 59.3% 64.3% 70.4% Remain 74.7% Hull, East 27.4% 40.3% 40.6% Leave 66.1%
Glasgow, North West 68.5% 70.8% 75.7% Remain 75.8% Hull, North 40.0% 52.4% 54.3% Remain 69.6%
Glasgow, South 71.8% 72.3% 77.5% Remain 75.3% Hull, West & Hessle 32.2% 45.3% 46.5% Leave 67.8%
Glasgow, South West 59.1% 64.5% 69.4% Remain 73.7% Huntingdon 46.7% 49.2% 52.6% Remain 63.1%
Glenrothes 53.5% 60.0% 65.3% Remain 72.3% Hyndburn 34.2% 41.9% 45.4% Leave 64.7%
Gloucester 41.1% 48.3% 49.5% Leave 65.3% Ilford, North 47.4% 52.7% 57.1% Remain 68.2%
Gordon 55.4% 59.4% 64.6% Remain 68.5% Ilford, South 56.1% 64.4% 67.1% Remain 72.8%
Gosport 38.0% 43.1% 44.7% Leave 61.6% Inverclyde 63.8% 66.7% 71.5% Remain 73.0%
Gower 49.8% 53.0% 56.5% Remain 64.9% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 58.6% 61.1% 67.5% Remain 69.9%
Grantham & Stamford 39.0% 42.8% 44.0% Leave 59.5% Ipswich 43.4% 52.8% 52.0% Remain 66.3%
Gravesham 34.6% 42.1% 42.6% Leave 62.2% Isle of Wight 38.1% 42.5% 44.8% Leave 60.7%
Great Grimsby 28.6% 40.5% 40.5% Leave 64.4% Islington, North 78.4% 81.5% 84.3% Remain 78.3%
Great Yarmouth 28.5% 36.0% 37.0% Leave 59.6% Islington, South & Finsbury 71.7% 76.6% 78.5% Remain 76.4%
Greenwich & Woolwich 64.3% 69.3% 72.7% Remain 73.7% Islwyn 41.1% 47.5% 51.2% Remain 66.6%
Guildford 58.8% 59.0% 62.6% Remain 65.1% Jarrow 38.4% 50.0% 50.5% Remain 67.5%
Hackney, North & Stoke Newington 79.1% 82.5% 84.4% Remain 78.9% Keighley 46.7% 50.5% 53.1% Remain 63.7%
Hackney, South & Shoreditch 77.8% 77.9% 82.9% Remain 78.3% Kenilworth & Southam 53.4% 53.0% 56.0% Remain 60.5%
Halesowen & Rowley Regis 33.7% 40.3% 42.1% Leave 62.3% Kensington 68.6% 66.6% 72.7% Remain 70.6%
Halifax 41.2% 50.2% 51.5% Remain 66.5% Kettering 39.0% 43.9% 46.4% Leave 61.6%
Haltemprice & Howden 44.5% 46.8% 48.8% Leave 60.7% Kilmarnock & Loudoun 60.4% 61.3% 67.8% Remain 70.8%
Halton 42.2% 54.0% 54.9% Remain 70.3% Kingston & Surbiton 58.4% 64.0% 65.2% Remain 69.8%
Hammersmith 69.0% 72.5% 75.8% Remain 74.4% Kingswood 43.2% 47.1% 50.3% Remain 63.8%
Hampshire, East 51.3% 51.5% 54.4% Remain 60.1% Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 58.3% 62.6% 67.8% Remain 71.0%
Hampshire, North East 54.1% 53.1% 57.1% Remain 61.6% Knowsley 47.6% 61.0% 61.0% Remain 73.3%
Hampshire, North West 45.5% 45.2% 50.6% Remain 61.2% Lanark & Hamilton East 64.5% 62.9% 70.3% Remain 70.9%
Hampstead & Kilburn 76.5% 77.6% 80.3% Remain 74.0% Lancashire, West 45.1% 51.3% 52.7% Remain 64.9%
Harborough 47.8% 50.6% 53.0% Remain 63.1% Lancaster & Fleetwood 49.1% 53.7% 56.5% Remain 65.7%
Harlow 32.0% 39.9% 41.8% Leave 62.8% Leeds, Central 52.6% 58.3% 62.9% Remain 72.3%
Harrogate & Knaresborough 52.8% 55.1% 57.3% Remain 63.8% Leeds, East 39.1% 48.9% 51.4% Remain 69.1%
Harrow, East 52.5% 55.3% 60.0% Remain 67.1% Leeds, North East 62.7% 68.0% 70.2% Remain 71.7%
Harrow, West 54.9% 63.4% 64.8% Remain 70.7% Leeds, North West 64.6% 68.4% 71.2% Remain 73.4%
Hartlepool 30.4% 41.4% 42.5% Leave 63.7% Leeds, West 45.0% 54.5% 57.3% Remain 70.4%
Harwich & Essex North 38.9% 42.7% 43.4% Leave 59.6% Leicester, East 46.8% 54.3% 58.3% Remain 68.5%
Hastings & Rye 43.8% 47.8% 50.5% Remain 63.1% Leicester, South 57.4% 63.5% 67.5% Remain 73.3%
Havant 37.5% 43.7% 45.1% Leave 61.3% Leicester, West 48.3% 55.4% 58.9% Remain 70.5%
Hayes & Harlington 40.6% 53.4% 54.5% Remain 69.4% Leicestershire, North West 39.3% 45.8% 45.4% Leave 61.3%
Hazel Grove 47.8% 53.6% 54.8% Remain 65.3% Leicestershire, South 41.8% 44.7% 46.4% Leave 60.7%

8
 June Aug Nov June Aug Nov
2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final 2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final
Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say
Leigh 36.5% 46.0% 46.8% Leave 66.6% Norfolk, Mid 39.4% 42.0% 44.5% Leave 58.7%
Lewes 53.0% 53.8% 57.4% Remain 63.4% Norfolk, North 41.7% 49.4% 47.7% Leave 61.6%
Lewisham Deptford 75.3% 79.6% 82.1% Remain 78.2% Norfolk, North West 33.9% 37.7% 40.4% Leave 58.6%
Lewisham, East 64.6% 69.8% 73.1% Remain 74.4% Norfolk, South 48.9% 49.1% 52.1% Remain 60.9%
Lewisham, West & Penge 65.5% 70.6% 73.8% Remain 74.8% Norfolk, South West 33.7% 37.9% 39.2% Leave 58.1%
Leyton & Wanstead 65.0% 70.8% 75.0% Remain 74.9% Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford 30.7% 42.1% 42.4% Leave 67.2%
Lichfield 42.4% 44.3% 47.6% Leave 60.2% Northampton, North 39.3% 46.4% 48.7% Leave 64.7%
Lincoln 42.7% 47.5% 51.0% Remain 65.7% Northampton, South 40.4% 47.3% 50.8% Remain 66.3%
Linlithgow & East Falkirk 58.4% 62.8% 67.7% Remain 72.0% Northamptonshire, South 47.3% 47.1% 51.2% Remain 61.2%
Liverpool Riverside 73.1% 75.8% 79.2% Remain 77.0% Norwich, North 42.7% 49.9% 50.1% Remain 64.6%
Liverpool Walton 46.2% 60.5% 60.7% Remain 73.2% Norwich, South 59.6% 62.1% 68.4% Remain 70.3%
Liverpool Wavertree 64.2% 68.9% 72.5% Remain 74.4% Nottingham, East 57.1% 64.1% 67.9% Remain 73.3%
Liverpool West Derby 49.7% 60.0% 62.1% Remain 72.9% Nottingham, North 36.2% 44.8% 47.7% Leave 66.5%
Livingston 56.2% 60.6% 66.0% Remain 72.1% Nottingham, South 53.5% 60.1% 62.4% Remain 69.2%
Llanelli 44.5% 50.9% 54.8% Remain 68.1% Nuneaton 35.2% 40.5% 43.9% Leave 62.9%
Loughborough 50.3% 51.1% 55.6% Remain 64.4% Ochil & South Perthshire 60.7% 59.4% 65.8% Remain 67.4%
Louth & Horncastle 30.6% 34.6% 35.5% Leave 56.1% Ogmore 40.2% 48.4% 51.1% Remain 67.1%
Ludlow 41.4% 41.6% 44.7% Leave 57.3% Old Bexley & Sidcup 36.8% 41.9% 44.4% Leave 61.8%
Luton, North 41.8% 53.1% 54.8% Remain 69.3% Oldham, East & Saddleworth 40.1% 46.2% 50.6% Remain 65.9%
Luton, South 44.6% 54.8% 56.5% Remain 69.3% Oldham, West & Royton 38.7% 51.3% 51.2% Remain 69.2%
Macclesfield 51.8% 53.8% 56.1% Remain 63.7% Orkney & Shetland 59.7% 64.7% 69.0% Remain 72.1%
Maidenhead 54.6% 57.1% 58.9% Remain 62.8% Orpington 42.5% 44.9% 47.7% Leave 60.5%
Maidstone & The Weald 44.1% 46.1% 50.6% Remain 62.9% Oxford, East 67.7% 72.0% 75.8% Remain 74.8%
Makerfield 35.0% 46.0% 46.2% Leave 67.4% Oxford, West & Abingdon 61.8% 65.8% 65.6% Remain 67.2%
Maldon 38.7% 40.4% 42.4% Leave 58.1% Paisley & Renfrewshire North 63.9% 67.5% 71.9% Remain 72.3%
Manchester Central 63.3% 68.4% 71.0% Remain 75.1% Paisley & Renfrewshire South 65.8% 69.1% 73.8% Remain 73.7%
Manchester Gorton 62.1% 68.0% 72.1% Remain 75.4% Pendle 36.8% 44.5% 45.8% Leave 62.4%
Manchester Withington 73.7% 77.4% 80.7% Remain 77.9% Penistone & Stocksbridge 38.7% 43.4% 46.5% Leave 63.4%
Mansfield 29.1% 36.0% 39.0% Leave 62.8% Penrith & The Border 44.6% 45.5% 48.4% Leave 59.5%
Meon Valley 47.1% 46.4% 50.4% Remain 59.8% Perth & North Perthshire 59.8% 61.1% 65.8% Remain 67.6%
Meriden 41.2% 45.0% 47.4% Leave 61.8% Peterborough 38.7% 44.5% 48.1% Leave 64.0%
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 41.6% 51.3% 54.4% Remain 69.6% Plymouth Moor View 33.6% 41.6% 43.8% Leave 63.0%
Middlesbrough 33.9% 46.8% 48.8% Leave 68.1% Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 45.6% 51.4% 55.8% Remain 66.9%
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East 35.0% 42.7% 44.5% Leave 63.2% Pontypridd 54.2% 59.4% 62.8% Remain 69.3%
Midlothian 62.1% 63.5% 70.1% Remain 72.5% Poole 43.1% 50.3% 50.4% Remain 63.5%
Milton Keynes, North 50.2% 56.5% 56.7% Remain 66.2% Poplar & Limehouse 65.8% 68.2% 72.1% Remain 73.3%
Milton Keynes, South 47.0% 53.0% 54.6% Remain 66.0% Portsmouth, North 36.3% 43.6% 44.9% Leave 64.1%
Mitcham & Morden 55.3% 64.3% 65.8% Remain 72.9% Portsmouth, South 48.2% 58.8% 60.0% Remain 69.8%
Mole Valley 52.4% 51.0% 54.4% Remain 59.9% Preseli Pembrokeshire 44.2% 49.5% 51.6% Remain 62.9%
Monmouth 52.2% 54.0% 56.2% Remain 62.4% Preston 43.1% 54.3% 56.0% Remain 69.8%
Montgomeryshire 44.0% 47.1% 50.2% Remain 61.6% Pudsey 51.6% 55.7% 58.5% Remain 66.4%
Moray 50.1% 53.3% 57.8% Remain 65.7% Putney 73.1% 74.4% 77.4% Remain 72.2%
Morecambe & Lunesdale 41.1% 45.3% 48.7% Leave 63.2% Rayleigh & Wickford 32.1% 35.9% 37.6% Leave 58.2%
Morley & Outwood 40.2% 46.0% 48.4% Leave 65.2% Reading, East 61.8% 66.4% 69.0% Remain 70.2%
Motherwell & Wishaw 63.0% 67.2% 71.3% Remain 74.5% Reading, West 47.3% 52.5% 56.1% Remain 66.4%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) 56.1% 59.3% 65.9% Remain 70.2% Redcar 32.4% 41.8% 44.6% Leave 65.2%
Neath 45.8% 53.8% 56.3% Remain 67.5% Redditch 38.6% 45.6% 46.4% Leave 62.9%
New Forest, East 40.5% 43.5% 45.2% Leave 59.5% Reigate 52.2% 52.8% 57.0% Remain 63.8%
New Forest, West 44.1% 44.8% 47.0% Leave 58.3% Renfrewshire, East 74.3% 72.9% 77.3% Remain 71.3%
Newark 44.2% 45.3% 48.9% Leave 60.0% Rhondda 38.8% 51.1% 53.0% Remain 69.5%
Newbury 52.5% 53.6% 56.4% Remain 62.2% Ribble Valley 41.3% 44.9% 47.7% Leave 61.3%
Newcastle upon Tyne, Central 51.6% 58.6% 61.6% Remain 70.8% Richmond (Yorks) 45.3% 46.5% 48.5% Leave 59.0%
Newcastle upon Tyne, East 58.9% 65.3% 68.4% Remain 72.4% Richmond Park 72.3% 74.0% 74.9% Remain 70.1%
Newcastle upon Tyne, North 42.9% 48.9% 53.0% Remain 66.6% Rochdale 42.5% 53.4% 54.5% Remain 68.9%
Newcastle-under-Lyme 38.3% 47.1% 48.2% Leave 64.4% Rochester & Strood 36.3% 44.7% 44.3% Leave 62.3%
Newport, East 39.7% 49.2% 50.4% Remain 67.1% Rochford & Southend East 39.5% 44.1% 48.2% Leave 64.6%
Newport, West 47.0% 50.6% 55.6% Remain 66.9% Romford 30.7% 39.7% 39.6% Leave 61.7%
Newton Abbot 43.9% 49.9% 50.2% Remain 61.6% Romsey & Southampton North 54.2% 54.0% 57.2% Remain 63.0%

9
 June Aug Nov June Aug Nov
2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final 2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final
Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 56.6% 58.9% 65.5% Remain 69.2% Stoke-on-Trent, Central 35.0% 43.9% 47.6% Leave 66.5%
Rossendale & Darwen 41.4% 46.8% 48.9% Leave 63.8% Stoke-on-Trent, North 27.9% 38.6% 40.0% Leave 64.8%
Rother Valley 33.3% 40.7% 42.1% Leave 63.2% Stoke-on-Trent, South 29.2% 42.8% 41.1% Leave 64.3%
Rotherham 31.7% 44.9% 44.4% Leave 67.4% Stone 42.0% 44.4% 46.5% Leave 58.7%
Rugby 41.6% 46.4% 48.8% Leave 62.4% Stourbridge 36.3% 42.8% 44.6% Leave 62.6%
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 51.0% 54.9% 55.3% Remain 63.8% Stratford-on-Avon 48.8% 47.7% 51.9% Remain 59.8%
Runnymede & Weybridge 50.2% 52.6% 55.6% Remain 64.1% Streatham 79.5% 81.1% 83.9% Remain 77.3%
Rushcliffe 58.7% 58.3% 62.2% Remain 64.3% Stretford & Urmston 51.5% 60.5% 61.7% Remain 70.6%
Rutherglen & Hamilton West 62.7% 67.9% 71.9% Remain 74.4% Stroud 54.0% 55.7% 58.5% Remain 64.5%
Rutland & Melton 46.0% 46.3% 49.6% Leave 60.3% Suffolk, Central & North Ipswich 45.5% 46.9% 50.6% Remain 60.1%
Saffron Walden 49.1% 49.4% 52.8% Remain 60.9% Suffolk, Coastal 44.2% 45.7% 47.9% Leave 59.8%
Salford & Eccles 46.4% 55.1% 58.3% Remain 70.9% Suffolk, South 45.8% 45.6% 48.9% Leave 59.2%
Salisbury 49.7% 50.7% 53.9% Remain 61.4% Suffolk, West 36.7% 40.9% 42.7% Leave 60.5%
Scarborough & Whitby 38.6% 40.8% 46.3% Leave 61.2% Sunderland, Central 40.1% 48.2% 51.3% Remain 67.8%
Scunthorpe 30.9% 41.8% 42.3% Leave 63.1% Surrey East 45.8% 48.8% 50.2% Remain 61.4%
Sedgefield 41.1% 47.7% 49.1% Leave 65.0% Surrey Heath 48.0% 50.2% 52.0% Remain 61.4%
Sefton, Central 54.9% 61.0% 61.2% Remain 67.6% Surrey South West 59.4% 58.9% 61.2% Remain 63.4%
Selby & Ainsty 42.2% 45.1% 47.2% Leave 60.3% Sussex, Mid 53.3% 53.7% 57.4% Remain 63.2%
Sevenoaks 46.1% 47.8% 50.3% Remain 60.7% Sutton & Cheam 48.7% 55.2% 57.1% Remain 66.1%
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 38.6% 51.0% 51.2% Remain 69.0% Sutton Coldfield 48.3% 48.5% 53.3% Remain 62.3%
Sheffield Central 69.6% 71.9% 76.5% Remain 76.0% Swansea, East 37.9% 50.7% 50.5% Remain 68.2%
Sheffield Hallam 64.1% 68.3% 70.8% Remain 71.4% Swansea, West 57.3% 61.1% 64.6% Remain 69.0%
Sheffield Heeley 42.4% 51.7% 54.4% Remain 67.6% Swindon, North 42.6% 48.0% 50.2% Remain 63.5%
Sheffield South East 33.5% 42.4% 45.8% Leave 66.5% Swindon, South 48.4% 52.5% 56.1% Remain 65.6%
Sherwood 36.2% 41.8% 43.6% Leave 61.4% Tamworth 34.0% 40.4% 41.3% Leave 61.2%
Shipley 47.8% 52.1% 54.7% Remain 64.7% Tatton 54.2% 53.0% 56.8% Remain 61.6%
Shrewsbury & Atcham 47.0% 50.6% 52.8% Remain 63.2% Taunton Deane 47.1% 48.9% 52.2% Remain 62.7%
Shropshire, North 40.5% 45.0% 45.8% Leave 60.0% Telford 32.9% 40.6% 43.7% Leave 64.1%
Sittingbourne & Sheppey 34.2% 36.9% 41.0% Leave 60.1% Tewkesbury 46.2% 47.0% 50.1% Remain 61.5%
Skipton & Ripon 47.0% 45.5% 49.6% Leave 57.6% Thanet, North 35.0% 41.6% 42.3% Leave 60.9%
Sleaford & North Hykeham 38.5% 39.3% 42.9% Leave 58.7% Thanet, South 38.4% 42.9% 45.0% Leave 62.1%
Slough 45.9% 56.6% 59.5% Remain 70.7% Thirsk & Malton 43.6% 44.4% 47.3% Leave 59.5%
Solihull 46.7% 49.1% 52.8% Remain 63.0% Thornbury & Yate 46.7% 51.5% 52.5% Remain 62.2%
Somerset, North 52.0% 54.1% 56.3% Remain 62.8% Thurrock 29.7% 42.0% 40.7% Leave 65.0%
Somerset, North East 47.9% 51.1% 53.8% Remain 63.1% Tiverton & Honiton 42.4% 45.0% 46.3% Leave 59.1%
Somerton & Frome 49.0% 46.1% 52.9% Remain 60.6% Tonbridge & Malling 47.4% 47.2% 50.3% Remain 59.5%
South Holland & The Deepings 28.8% 32.9% 34.4% Leave 56.6% Tooting 74.7% 76.5% 79.4% Remain 74.6%
South Ribble 43.1% 46.7% 49.5% Leave 63.0% Torbay 37.3% 45.2% 46.5% Leave 63.2%
South Shields 37.9% 45.4% 49.8% Leave 67.1% Torfaen 39.1% 48.0% 50.5% Remain 67.5%
Southampton Itchen 40.0% 50.9% 51.1% Remain 66.7% Totnes 45.9% 47.0% 51.1% Remain 60.6%
Southampton Test 49.3% 60.0% 60.7% Remain 70.6% Tottenham 76.2% 76.0% 81.0% Remain 76.5%
Southend, West 44.9% 50.6% 51.6% Remain 64.1% Truro & Falmouth 53.8% 57.2% 59.6% Remain 65.1%
Southport 54.5% 57.5% 60.1% Remain 67.0% Tunbridge Wells 55.3% 56.2% 59.7% Remain 63.8%
Spelthorne 39.7% 45.2% 46.5% Leave 62.7% Twickenham 66.3% 69.2% 70.4% Remain 69.9%
St. Albans 62.0% 64.1% 66.1% Remain 68.0% Tynemouth 52.2% 56.4% 59.3% Remain 67.9%
St. Austell & Newquay 36.5% 41.2% 45.0% Leave 62.7% Tyneside, North 40.6% 49.5% 51.8% Remain 68.1%
St. Helens, North 41.7% 50.9% 52.1% Remain 67.9% Uxbridge & Ruislip South 43.6% 51.4% 53.5% Remain 66.9%
St. Helens, South & Whiston 43.9% 52.0% 55.3% Remain 69.1% Vale of Clwyd 44.1% 50.2% 52.4% Remain 64.9%
St. Ives 44.9% 51.5% 51.3% Remain 62.4% Vale of Glamorgan 47.7% 50.1% 54.3% Remain 64.1%
Stafford 42.8% 43.3% 49.3% Leave 61.8% Vauxhall 77.6% 80.7% 81.6% Remain 77.3%
Staffordshire Moorlands 35.4% 39.9% 41.7% Leave 59.8% Wakefield 37.2% 45.9% 47.3% Leave 64.6%
Staffordshire, South 34.8% 38.1% 39.8% Leave 57.7% Wallasey 50.1% 56.5% 59.6% Remain 69.5%
Stalybridge & Hyde 40.7% 51.1% 51.9% Remain 67.4% Walsall, North 25.8% 37.1% 37.3% Leave 63.7%
Stevenage 42.9% 47.6% 51.0% Remain 64.4% Walsall, South 38.4% 48.0% 50.1% Remain 66.7%
Stirling 67.8% 67.4% 72.6% Remain 70.3% Walthamstow 66.5% 73.0% 76.3% Remain 76.8%
Stockport 53.2% 60.0% 63.3% Remain 70.3% Wansbeck 43.8% 48.8% 53.1% Remain 65.9%
Stockton, North 33.5% 41.5% 45.2% Leave 65.4% Wantage 53.6% 54.4% 57.9% Remain 63.7%
Stockton, South 42.2% 46.5% 51.3% Remain 64.6% Warley 38.2% 50.2% 51.3% Remain 69.4%

10
 June Aug Nov
2016 2018 2018 Leave/ Final
Parliamentary Constituencies Remain Remain Remain Remain Say
Warrington, North 41.4% 49.6% 51.1% Remain 66.4%
Warrington, South 49.4% 54.9% 57.2% Remain 66.7%
Warwick & Leamington 58.9% 63.9% 64.9% Remain 67.8%
Warwickshire, North 32.2% 38.1% 39.9% Leave 60.8%
Washington & Sunderland West 38.1% 49.2% 50.5% Remain 68.0%
Watford 48.8% 55.0% 57.5% Remain 67.8%
Waveney 36.8% 41.1% 44.0% Leave 60.6%
Wealden 47.5% 46.3% 50.5% Remain 59.5%
Weaver Vale 49.8% 54.0% 56.7% Remain 65.4%
Wellingborough 37.1% 42.2% 44.1% Leave 62.2%
Wells 46.5% 49.2% 50.7% Remain 61.6%
Welwyn Hatfield 47.5% 53.5% 55.5% Remain 65.7%
Wentworth & Dearne 31.0% 41.5% 42.9% Leave 66.5%
West Bromwich East 32.4% 41.9% 44.8% Leave 66.0%
West Bromwich West 30.9% 40.3% 41.9% Leave 65.0%
West Ham 52.6% 66.3% 67.0% Remain 74.3%
Westminster, North 67.0% 69.4% 73.2% Remain 72.1%
Westmorland & Lonsdale 52.5% 55.6% 56.8% Remain 62.7%
Weston-Super-Mare 43.3% 48.5% 50.3% Remain 63.2%
Wigan 37.3% 47.8% 49.6% Leave 68.0%
Wiltshire, North 49.6% 51.5% 53.5% Remain 61.3%
Wiltshire, South West 42.3% 47.9% 46.8% Leave 60.8%
Wimbledon 70.6% 71.8% 74.7% Remain 69.9%
Winchester 60.3% 59.8% 62.3% Remain 64.2%
Windsor 53.9% 55.1% 58.1% Remain 63.6%
Wirral, South 53.5% 59.7% 60.2% Remain 66.6%
Wirral, West 55.3% 59.1% 60.6% Remain 65.4%
Witham 39.2% 42.9% 44.8% Leave 59.6%
Witney 53.7% 56.4% 56.9% Remain 62.9%
Woking 55.9% 59.1% 59.9% Remain 65.8%
Wokingham 57.5% 57.5% 61.6% Remain 65.1%
Wolverhampton, North East 32.3% 40.9% 43.5% Leave 65.4%
Wolverhampton, South East 31.9% 43.1% 44.7% Leave 65.5%
Wolverhampton, South West 45.6% 51.6% 54.5% Remain 65.4%
Worcester 46.3% 53.0% 54.6% Remain 65.9%
Worcestershire, Mid 41.1% 43.2% 44.9% Leave 58.6%
Worcestershire, West 47.4% 47.3% 49.7% Leave 57.4%
Workington 39.7% 46.4% 47.3% Leave 62.8%
Worsley & Eccles South 40.2% 50.1% 50.6% Remain 67.3%
Worthing, East & Shoreham 46.3% 51.3% 53.0% Remain 64.0%
Worthing, West 43.9% 46.0% 49.4% Leave 62.1%
Wrekin, The 41.8% 44.6% 48.1% Leave 61.7%
Wrexham 42.7% 49.4% 52.2% Remain 65.5%
Wycombe 52.0% 57.6% 59.6% Remain 66.8%
Wyre & Preston North 46.0% 48.5% 51.1% Remain 61.6%
Wyre Forest 36.9% 41.0% 43.7% Leave 60.7%
Wythenshawe & Sale East 50.1% 58.1% 60.6% Remain 70.4%
Yeovil 40.7% 44.1% 46.6% Leave 61.5%
Ynys Mon 49.1% 55.0% 56.7% Remain 66.8%
York Central 61.5% 68.2% 70.1% Remain 72.9%
York Outer 55.1% 58.1% 59.6% Remain 64.9%
Yorkshire East 36.7% 40.5% 42.9% Leave 60.0%

11
Methodology

MRP is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small geographic

areas or sub-groups using national opinion surveys.

We have arrived at the new constituency estimates for remain/leave voters using a statistical method called
multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP), which has been undertaken for HOPE not hate and
Best for Britain by Focaldata.
MRP is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small geographic areas or sub-groups using
national opinion surveys. It originated at Columbia University, USA, and was used by academics to estimate
state-level opinion cheaply, given the expense of doing polls throughout the country.
MRP has two main elements. The first is to use a survey to build a multi-level regression model that
predicts opinion (or any quantity of interest) from certain variables, normally demographics. The second
is to weight (post-stratify) your results by the relevant population frequency, to get population level
(or constituency level) estimates.
At the end of this process you get more accurate, more granular (thus more actionable) estimates
of public opinion than traditional polling. There are however significant technical challenges to implementing
it effectively. These include large data requirements, dedicated cloud computing resources, and
an understanding of Bayesian statistics. It is far from a simple endeavour.

Among the key features are:

Estimates of opinion at local geographic levels, e.g. constituencies
Estimates of opinion of precise demographic groups, e.g. young, women who are Asian,
own their own house and drive a bicycle to work
More accurate estimates of opinion generally because MRP doesn’t exacerbate problems
of unrepresentative samples
Use of prior knowledge and old polls to improve accuracy and potentially cut sample size
Quicker decisions as new data automatically flows through models to campaigners

Between 24th October and 6th November, Populus polled 8,154 people on behalf of HOPE not hate and
Best for Britain with a range of questions about Brexit and other political and cultural issues.
The key value in MRP is that it will help us be far more effective in our local campaigning. MRP helps
us better understand who we need to speak to on any given issue, how we should speak to them and
on what issues.
The data will guide our door-to-door campaigning, but also direct our online campaigning as we will be able
to customise our messages to specific audiences far more effectively.

12
“The country is shifting in one direction. Two and a half years since the 2016 vote,
people across the country are coming to the same conclusion no matter how they
voted then: Brexit won’t deliver.

“The PM is trying to strongarm MPs into backing the slim pickings of her deal, using
the prospect of no deal to scare them into acceptance.

“Brits will not be blackmailed on Brexit. Our research shows people across the
nation have decided we are better off with the EU deal we currently have.”

Eloise Todd, CEO of Best for Britain

“It is increasingly clear that our communities, families and our children will
be worse off under Brexit. The divisions in our society are sometimes used
as a reason why Brexit should go ahead - but leaving the EU would actually only
entrench those problems further as it will do nothing to stem the decline in the
very communities that have suffered most over the last 30 years.

“Brexit will only make things worse and when that happens the people in these
communities, who voted for Brexit because they were told it would improve their
lives, will be even angrier and feel even more betrayed.

“The reality of Brexit is becoming clear and it’s therefore not surprising that people
in former industrial towns are now changing their minds.

“It is tempting for MPs to be directed by how their constituents voted in 2016,
but they must do what’s best for their constituents and implementing Brexit
is not that.”

Nick Lowles, CEO of HOPE not hate