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𝑀𝐶 = (𝐶𝑖 − 𝐶𝑖 ∗)2
𝐷𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒:
𝐶𝑖: 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙
𝐶𝑖 ∗ = 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑜 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑑𝑜
𝐷𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎:
𝑁
𝑀𝐶 = ∑(𝑌 − 𝐴 − 𝐵𝑋)2
𝑖=1
𝑁𝐴 + 𝐵∑𝑋 = ∑𝑌 … (1)
X Y
Año Produccion X^2 XY
Nº
(1000 Ton)
0 2003 305.8 0.0 0.0
1 2004 330.4 1.0 330.4
2 2005 334.5 4.0 669.0
3 2006 353.9 9.0 1061.8
4 2007 344.3 16.0 1377.1
5 2008 380.0 25.0 1899.9
6 2009 377.6 36.0 2265.6
7 2010 394.6 49.0 2762.0
8 2011 418.6 64.0 3349.0
9 2012 428.8 81.0 3858.8
10 2013 441.0 100.0 4410.0
11 2014 450.0 121.0 4950.0
12 2015 458.0 144.0 5496.0
13 2016 230.0 169.0 2990.0
91 5247.3 819.0 35089.2
𝑅𝑒𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜
14𝐴 + 91𝐵 = 5247.3
14𝐴 + 91(4.31) = 5247.3
14𝐴 = 5247.3 − 2.73
5244.57
𝐴= = 337.33
14
𝐸𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑎𝑙:
𝑌 = 374.6 + 0.03𝑋
R2=0.1429
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Año
500.0
400.0
Toneladas
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Año