Investing in 5G

The scale, promise and challenges

of tomorrow’s networks

June 2019 gsmaintelligence.com @GSMAi

© 2019 GSM Association

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Author
Pablo Iacopino
Director of Ecosystem Research
Tim Hatt
Head of Research
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CONTENTS 1 Executive summary

2 Sizing the investment ahead

Open questions and new network

3 considerations for the 5G era

Regional outlook:
4 a diverse set of timelines and challenges
 4

Shape of the market

5G network investment is coming in phases – Operators will invest up to $1 trillion in 5G networks between 2018

1 and 2025, with much of it back-loaded. This capex accounts for 17% of operator mobile revenue, as it did for
previous network generations. The pace of investment varies by region: in wave 1 (2018–2020) China, the US, South
Korea and Japan dominate; in wave 2 (2021–2023) Europe accelerates; in wave 3 (2024 and beyond) 5G moves
beyond early deployments across Latin America, MENA, CIS and parts of Africa.

While 5G is built, 4G continues to grow – 4G and 5G networks will likely coexist and remain complementary into

2 the 2030s, with 5G an added layer rolled out in a more targeted way. While operators roll out 5G, 4G will continue
to grow in coverage, capacity and customer adoption. 5G will also add pressure to phase out 2G/3G networks –
this may be a matter of when, not if. Repurposing existing spectrum for 5G will help operators make the most of
valuable assets, fulfilling coverage and demand for 5G services.

5G requires denser networks to meet coverage and capacity objectives – Most operators are targeting a phased

3 approach to 5G network deployments, beginning with a non-standalone (NSA) architecture before eventual transition
to a standalone (SA) model. The rollout of SA networks will begin in key locations of 5G demand. While a multitude of
factors play a role, 80:20 RAN/core investment mix is a likely scenario in most markets in the 5G era.
What could change the game – Incremental revenue from new services (FWA and enterprise), regulation, cost of

4 spectrum and new network models are disruptive factors that will accelerate or slow the pace of 5G deployments. FWA is
a niche area for now, with the US playing a pivotal role. The enterprise market is the incremental opportunity, but getting
the capabilities (SA networks, slicing, edge technology, spectrum) in place to fully service enterprises will take time. Some
of the use cases, such as autonomous driving and smart manufacturing, also require greater tech maturity beyond the
connectivity/platform layer.

New network models could also disrupt – Private networks, infrastructure sharing and network automation are prime

5 examples; each comes with its challenges. The addressable market for private networks is still limited, while the use of
AI to make 5G networks more efficient and agile is still in its early stages, making it hard to assess the long-term impact
on opex and capex. Infrastructure sharing could help operators reduce 5G deployment costs but its viability should be
considered by looking at the business case, and should be driven by commercial agreements.
 5

The market in numbers

Operator investment in 5G networks RAN/core investments in the 5G era
80:20 The distribution of core and RAN

80+20+z
Operators will invest nearly $1.4 trillion in

$1
mobile capex between 2019 and 2025, investments will vary by country,
around 70% of which will be on 5G. The depending on the core network
$1 trillion 5G investment is largely back- development level, the capillarity of fibre
loaded (2021–2025), reflecting timelines and the pace of densification. An 80:20
trillion and a magnitude of 5G investments
across regions. Half of the 5G capex will
RAN/core investment mix is a likely
scenario over time in most markets.
be in the US, China and Japan. Another
20% will be in Europe.

5G share of mobile connections in 2025 Private networks are work in progress

Today, 4G is the largest mobile network Only 8% of enterprises planning large-

8%
technology by number of mobile scale IoT deployments also require

16% connections. Its dominance will last for at

least the next decade. 5G will become the
lead mobile network technology in 2025
in a handful of countries including the US,
Japan, Australia and South Korea.
location-specific coverage, according
to our survey of enterprise IoT
professionals. Most have wider coverage
footprint goals, which would make
private networks uneconomical.
CONTENTS 1 Executive summary

2 Sizing the investment ahead

Open questions and new network

3 considerations for the 5G era

Regional outlook:
4 a diverse set of timelines and challenges
 7

Financial backdrop for operators continues

to be challenging
• Mobile has always been a highly capital-intensive sector. Global mobile revenue growth and capex/revenue
Whether 2G, 3G or 4G, the industry has kept investing
16–18% of its revenue in mobile networks – a trend expected
to continue in the 5G era.
• The revenue outlook has changed significantly over the 18% 18%
last decade. 5G launches are set against a backdrop of low, 17% 17%
single-digit mobile revenue growth, if that, in most markets 16%
around the world. This compares to double-digit revenue
growth when 3G launched (2003–2004) and mid-single-
digit revenue growth in the early days of 4G (2009–2011).
12%
• The US and China are no longer exceptions. Mobile revenue
has been nearly flat in the US over the last three years,
while China faces a significant growth slowdown.
• Revenue pressure does not appear to be affecting 5G 7%
timelines and ambitions. Both the US and China are
5G pioneers and will invest a total of $165 billion in 5G
networks between 2019 and 2021 to supply 5G networks in
3%
key areas of demand.
2%
1%

2000–2005 2005–2010 2010–2015 2015–2020 2020–2025

Mobile revenue growth (CAGR) Mobile capex as % of mobile revenue

Source GSMA Intelligence. Mobile capex excludes spectrum acquisitions.

 8

$1 trillion 5G network investment worldwide to

2025, with much of it back-loaded
• Operators will invest nearly $1.4 trillion in mobile capex
between 2019 and 2025, around 70% of which ($1 trillion) will
be on 5G. This global picture masks significant differences at
regional/country levels in terms of timelines and magnitude of
5G investments.
• Half the 5G capex will be in the US, China and Japan. Much
of the network investment in the other markets will continue
to be on 4G over the next three years to either upgrade 4G
networks to faster speeds and lower latencies or increase
population coverage and traffic capacity, an important
requisite for non-standalone 5G deployments.

Global mobile capex Global mobile capex excluding US, China and Japan
$ billion $ billion
250

200

150

5G capex: ~$700bn 100

50

5G capex: ~$300bn
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

5G capex Non-5G capex 5G capex Non-5G capex US, China, Japan

Source GSMA Intelligence

 9

While 5G is built, 4G will continue to grow in

coverage, capacity and customer adoption
• 4G became the dominant mobile Global mobile connections by network generation
network technology by number Number of mobile connections (billion)
of mobile connections in 2018. Its 6
dominance will last for at least the Share (2025)
next decade. 60%

• While 5G is built, 4G will continue to 5

grow, accounting for the lion’s share
of mobile connections.
• 5G will become the lead technology 4

in 2025 – by number of mobile

connections – in only a handful of
countries such as the US, Japan, 3
Australia and South Korea. Yet,
driving incremental revenue from
that 5G customer base will be a key
2
challenge for operators in those
markets. 19%
16%

5%

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2G 3G 4G 5G
Source GSMA Intelligence. Excluding cellular IoT.
 10

The global 5G network investment cycle will be

longer than 4G – coexistence will last into the 2030s
• 4G and 5G networks will likely coexist and remain A comparison of 4G and 5G
complementary for many years, with 5G an added layer. Percentages of global population, seven years post launch. 4G: 2009–2016, 5G: 2018–2025
Operators can service a significant share of data traffic on
4G, leaving 5G with the dual remit of absorbing overflow
capacity and underpinning services that require higher
speeds and/or lower latencies.
5G
• 5G network rollout will likely be more targeted than 4G in
most countries around the world, reflecting consumer and
enterprise demands. At a global level, 5G coverage will reach 16% 23% 61%
around 40% of the population seven years after launch
(2025). For comparison, it took five years for 4G to reach 39% coverage
around 40% population coverage.
• While other factors play a role (5G pricing, spectrum
availability, use cases), slower network rollout is likely to drive
4G
slower customer adoption in many markets. Seven years after
launch, 5G will reach 1.4 billion mobile connections (2025),
25% 41% 34%
16% of the total mobile customer base. Seven years after
launch, 4G reached 1.9 billion connections, representing 25%
of the mobile customer base (2016). 66% coverage

Connected Covered (not connected) Not covered

Source GSMA Intelligence

 11

Regions will invest in 5G at different paces –

network rollout will happen in three waves
• Looking out to 2025, 5G network investment can be divided Mobile capex by region
into three main waves, reflecting the pace and depth of Billion, cumulative 2018-2025
deployments across regions.
APAC 64%
• Wave 1: Early deployments 2018–2020 – China, the US and
Japan will account for two thirds of global 5G capex in this
wave, investing a total of $140 billion. France, Germany, Italy, 80%
NA
Spain and the UK add another $30 billion while continuing
to invest in 4G. GCC operators also play a role (around
$5 billion) though on a smaller scale, reflecting the size of EUROPE 79%
their markets.
• Wave 2: Ramp-up 2021–2023 – Europe accelerates on 5G,
LATAM 48%
more than doubling its 5G capex (nearly $100 billion in this
phase) as other European markets enter the 5G era. China,
the US and Japan go wider on 5G population coverage. 48%
MENA
• Wave 3: Wider spread in 2024 and beyond – This is when 5G
in Latam, MENA, CIS and parts of Africa move beyond early
19%
deployments in pioneer markets. Many markets in these four SSA

regions will have launched 5G commercial services by then.

CIS 63%

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

5G capex Non-5G capex 5G share of capex 66% globally

Source GSMA Intelligence

 12

RAN and core investments: 80:20 is a likely

scenario in most markets in the later 5G era
• Most operators are targeting a phased approach to 5G Global capex by component, RAN versus core
network deployments, beginning with a non-standalone Global mobile capex, $ billion
(NSA) architecture before eventual transition to a standalone 250 86%
84% 84%
(SA) model. 82% 83%
80%
• With this approach, operators are able to use existing
macro sites and LTE spectrum as an anchor connection, 72%

with a densified network of small cells and use of mid-band 200

62%
(1–6 GHz range) and upper-band (above 6 GHz) spectrum
to facilitate high-speed data services. Dynamic spectrum
sharing also offers the potential of sharing spectrum between
4G and 5G within the same frequency. 150

• There will be variation as to when the SA model will be

deployed, and in which areas. For some operators, an NSA or
hybrid configuration could be a long-term solution.
100

• The rollout of SA networks – which involve the use of a

5G core and new radio – will begin in key locations of 5G
demand. Overall, 5G requires denser networks to meet
both coverage and capacity objectives. This means greater 50

investment in RAN.
• While the distribution of core and RAN investments will vary by
country – depending on the core network development level,
0
the capillarity of fibre and the pace of densification – an 80:20
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
RAN/core mix is a likely scenario over time in most markets.
RAN Core RAN as percentage of total
Source GSMA Intelligence
 13

Global scale effect has vanished: capex per

connection has stabilised; IoT will drive it down
• The growing scale of the mobile industry Mobile capex per mobile connection – a 25-year view
– measured by mobile penetration and Capex per connection, $ per month.
associated number of mobile connections –
was a major driver of the reduction in capex Subscriber penetration grows
per connection ratio in the 2G and 3G eras. from 10% (2000) to 50% (2011) Low, single-digit connection growth
of global population
• Over the last decade – the 4G era – this ratio
has remained fairly stable due to limited
6 30%
growth in mobile penetration. There are of

Connection growth
Capex per connection ($ per month)
course significant variations at regional and
country levels, but the global picture suggests 5 25%

the mobile industry as a whole is stabilising at

a ratio of $2 per month. 4 20%

• This analysis excludes cellular IoT, the future

source of connection growth. Adding it in, the 3 15%
capex per connection ratio will fall to 1.35 by
5G rollout begins to scale
2025.
2 10%
• Our data also suggests that when operators 4G rollout begins to scale
begin to roll out a new network generation
1 5%
(4G, 5G), the capex per connection ratio grows
for a couple of years (by 3–4%) because part
of the investment is front-loaded. This increase 0 0%
is then absorbed in the following few years. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Capex per connection excl. cellular IoT Capex per connection incl. cellular IoT
Connection growth excl. cellular IoT
Source GSMA Intelligence
CONTENTS 1 Executive summary

2 Sizing the investment ahead

Open questions and new network

3 considerations for the 5G era

Regional outlook:
4 a diverse set of timelines and challenges
 15

In the 5G era, the days of plain network ownership

are gone
• Mobile operators have traditionally operated networks Network infrastructure ownership models
through vertical integration of sites, RAN and core. Over the
in the 5G era
last 5-10 years, the network paradigm has moved towards
softwarisation and tower sharing, reflecting cost pressures Full stack Hybrid Private network Neutral host
and coverage obligations attached to spectrum licences. (traditional)
VAS
• 5G brings further complexity and, more fundamentally, • MNO
new ways of operating a network with or without licensed Billing • Hotspot
• Enterprise
spectrum. operator
Core MNO MNO • MNO
• Equipment
• Private networks to service enterprises are a prime example. • Cloud vendor
Backhaul

Active
Telecoms operators are, in theory, the default provider, but in • Other
practice there are multiple options from direct builds using RAN
reserved spectrum (e.g. Germany) to the use of global cloud • Licensed
companies such as AWS and Microsoft. • Dedicated • Licensed
Spectrum Licensed Licensed
• For operators this means: • Unlicensed • Unlicensed
(5G NR-U)
–– infrastructure competition becomes harder, not easier
Ancillary • MNO
–– capex will need to be spent more selectively, particularly for (power, • Hotspot
• Enterprise
small cells cooling) operator
• MNO
• Equipment
Passive

MNO
–– “frenemy”-style partnerships will emerge with adjacent Macro or MNO • Cloud vendor
sector competitors. small cells Towerco • Other

• Land or venue
Sites Enterprise
operator

Source GSMA Intelligence

 16

Private networks are work in progress –

still a relatively small addressable market
• Private networks are dedicated slices of Scale of planned enterprise IoT deployments – globally
bandwidth allocated for the sole use of a
specific customer. While the concept is not
new, the majority of existing deployments have
been confined to mission-critical services such
as emergency response and air traffic control. 22%

• This has, however, expanded over the last two

years to enterprise verticals keen to overhaul
and digitise operations – so-called industry 4.0
– using LTE-M or NB-IoT.
• 5G’s latency properties provide the technical
underpinning to expand the private network to
11%
higher-grade tasks such as robotics.
38%
• The addressable market is relatively limited; 8% 13%
our enterprise IoT survey suggests that only
8% of companies planning IoT deployments
of high scale also require location-specific 20%
coverage. 15%
13%
• Most have wider coverage footprint goals,
which would make private networks Location-specific City National Multinational
uneconomical. (e.g. factory)
<500 devices > 500 devices
Note r espondent companies could enter multiple responses so figures add to more than 100%.
Base: all enterprises planning a future IoT deployment.
Source GSMA Intelligence 2018 IoT Enterprise Survey
 17

Manufacturing and utilities would be the target

market for private networks in early days
• The sector split suggests manufacturing is the most fertile
area for private deployments. This chimes with evidence on
the ground, with companies such as Siemens and Audi active
participants in trials with operators.
• This is, however, a highly competitive space. Enterprise IoT
represents the collision of the telco and IT worlds. Cloud
computing capacity and proximity, machine learning IP, and
high-grade connectivity are the technical differentiators.
Operating with a consultative mindset rather than a pure-
play ‘supplier’ is a further requirement not to be discounted.
That only 10% of enterprise customers would pick operators
as their first-choice provider should serve as a warning to the
telco sector.

Companies planning large-scale IoT deployments with location-specific requirements – by vertical

14%
13%

9% 8%
7% 8% average across verticals

6%
4%

Consumer electronics Utilities Auto manufacturing Retail and hospitality Transportation Healthcare Public sector
manufacturing and warehousing

Source GSMA Intelligence 2018 IoT Enterprise Survey

 18

5G-based fixed wireless: dubious economics make

it a niche play for now
• The use of 5G as a last-mile technology to provide fixed broadband Fixed broadband connections by technology
connectivity (FWA) has garnered increasing interest among operators Percentage of fixed broadband connections (Q4 2018), residential and business
as a potentially lower cost and faster means – compared to FTTH – of
expanding high-speed offerings to households and businesses.
5%
• The US is playing a pivotal role. Verizon’s strategy is to offer 5G as a
competitive alternative to cable, either for households on DSL seeking to 19% 18%
upgrade or to win customers away from Comcast, Charter and AT&T.

• On the face of it, this presents a sizeable addressable market, with cable 43%
at around 60% of US fixed broadband connections. However, the reach in
practice is likely to be much lower because mmWave spectrum – the likely
carrier for 5G FWA – has weak signal propagation and therefore requires 62% 27%
a very high density of small cells to work at scale. There is also the issue
of needing to devote sufficient spectrum bandwidth to deliver speeds
77%
that would rival cable/fibre, which must be weighed against wireless
data demands. None of these are insurmountable problems but they 16%
underline the challenge in establishing a viable alternative to fibre/cable, 74%
which remains the gold standard in data transmission and commands the
highest pricing power.

• There is the option of discounting to grow market share but this would 53%
come at the cost of margin. T-Mobile US is bullish on its own prospects
21%
41%
for FWA and made no secret of its desire to rein in ‘big cable’, targeting
service for 52% of US zip codes.
17%
• Beyond the US, several operators have announced plans to launch FWA 14%
services. Vodafone Qatar is the only other live service at the moment 6%
and is choosing the other route by offering 5G as a redundancy measure
US UK France Spain Portugal
to fibre in the home. At $96 per month for 100 Mbps, this is a premium
product and unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. FTTP/B xDSL Cable Other
Source GSMA Intelligence
 19

Phasing out 2G/3G networks –

a matter of when, not if
• The phasing out of 2G networks is already happening Mobile connections by generation: a 2025 view
across several markets, though at a slow pace. 5G will add
pressure to phase out previous generation networks (2G 1% 1% 4% 2% 5%

and 3G), particularly in markets where 5G network rollout 7% 10% 12%

and customer adoption progress quickly. Operators in these 5% 10% 18%
leading markets will have greater flexibility – but also greater
21%
urgency from an opex perspective – to consider turning off
legacy networks on a more accelerated timeline when the
46% 33%
commercial case allows.
• The timeline for such phasing out and the network most 62%
likely to be phased out will vary by country depending on 59%
various spectrum factors – such as the amount and type of 68%
spectrum available to operators, and the opportunities to re-
68%
farm existing spectrum for 5G use – as well as the number of
66%
consumer and IoT devices used on 2G/3G networks. GSMA
Intelligence forecasts that by 2025 less than 10% of mobile
51%
connections (excluding IoT) will run on 2G/3G networks in
North America, Europe and large developed markets in Asia 49%
(China, Japan, South Korea and Australia). 26%
30%
• A key requirement before rationalising 2G/3G networks
17%
is to adopt all-IP communications services to replace 12% 3%
8% 6%
circuit‑switched communications. As such, the speed of
migration of voice services to VoLTE and, eventually, 5G new NA Europe APAC CIS LATAM MENA SSA
radio (VoNR) is also a key factor. 5G 4G 3G 2G

Source GSMA Intelligence. Mobile connections excluding cellular IoT

 20

Using AI-based network automation to make 5G

networks more efficient and agile
• Network automation is not new. Current networks have some
automated functionality largely based on pre-programmed rules
and pre-configured parameters. Ericsson worked with SoftBank in the Tokai region in Japan to implement
• Mobile networks in the 5G era will need greater and more a centralised RAN design that uses Ericsson’s AI-based technology. The
solution performs a thorough analysis of the radio network environment,
sophisticated levels of automation to deal with unprecedented
taking into account various cell statistics such as coverage overlap and
quantity, diversity and complexity of devices (including early signal strength to identity the optimal configuration. This deployment cut
autonomous vehicles and industrial robots). Each use case has the lead time by 40% compared to traditional network design methods
different traffic characteristics and network requirements in terms and improved network performance and user experience.
of bandwidth, latency and capacity, requiring a cost-effective and
agile way to manage all the network operations including traffic
prediction and connectivity provisioning.

• The expectation is that AI will drive greater network automation.

Huawei completed a Massive MIMO project to optimise network coverage
While there is early evidence of benefits for operators across
and the use of individual cells, allowing networks to adjust to changing
various network dimensions, disclosure is fragmented and largely traffic dynamics. The overall network capacity was improved by 15–20%.
based on pilots or small-scale deployments. This makes it hard to
assess the long-term impact of AI on network capex and opex.

• Much will depend on the ability of AI to deliver efficiencies across the

network cycle (planning, deployment, daily operations, maintenance)
as well as in network security and spectrum management. Several
operators are currently applying or experimenting with AI in these
areas. Beyond opex, network automation is also a foundation for
new revenue over time – AI-powered and flexible networks allow
operators to provide new, customised services to customers,
particularly in the enterprise market.
Nokia is working with Hutchison 3 Indonesia to increase network efficiency
on the operator’s LTE network, with the goal of boosting the end-user
mobile experience. Using Nokia’s Spectral Performance Management
solution led to a 17% increase in 3’s spectral efficiency, allowing the
network to carry more traffic without any new sites or installation of
new hardware. Some 20% more subscribers were able to use MIMO
connections, benefitting from up to 75% faster average data speeds.
CONTENTS 1 Executive summary

2 Sizing the investment ahead

Open questions and new network

3 considerations for the 5G era

Regional outlook:
4 a diverse set of timelines and challenges
 22

US
• As with LTE, US operators will be among the global leaders
investing in 5G networks. Our projections are for a cumulative
$285 billion in 5G capex between 2018 and 2025.
• The challenge will be generating sufficient tariff uplift to
offset some of the cost. Even in a scenario where 5G ARPU
levels are 20% above LTE by 2025, capex will be equivalent to
40% of the yield ($21 per month).

US operators will spend $285 billion during …but for every $1 customers pay for 5G in 2025, 40c
2018-2025 to get around 50% of the base on 5G of capex will be spent
$ billion $ capex per connection per month

50

50% $86

40
45%

5G ARPU scenarios
36% (% uplift on LTE)
30
+20%
27% +10%
$43

20 Contract ARPU
on LTE (Mar19)
$30
15%
$24
$21
10
Capex will be 40%
4% of 5G ARPU by
2025 – and that
assumes a 20%
uplift on LTE
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

5G capex Non-5G capex 5G percentage of mobile connections

Source GSMA Intelligence

 23

Europe
• Europe is seeking to re-establish technological leadership lost European operators are still looking to recoup
to Silicon Valley with the launch of the iPhone and to China
LTE investments
more recently. $ billion
• 5G is central to this goal alongside AI, with the European 35
Commission and national governments creating new financial
First LTE
incentives to spur infrastructure rollout, particularly fibre. 30 launches

• Mobile operators in Europe are, however, competing in a low

25
revenue growth environment and are cautious on large-scale
5G rollouts in the early years of the new standard post-2020.
20
Total 5G capex will be around $200 billion between 2018 and
2025, with much of this back-loaded.
15
• Despite $250 billion spent on mobile networks – largely
on LTE rollouts – between 2010 and 2018, Europe’s mobile 10

revenues experienced a net decline of $27 billion over

that period. 5

• A significant potential new upside with 5G is its application 0

in enterprise verticals such as factory automation. Pilots in
the Nordic region between operators, vendors and industrial -5
companies are encouraging in this respect.
-10

-15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile capex ($bn) Annual mobile revenue growth ($bn)

Note figures exclude spectrum auctions and licence fees

Source GSMA Intelligence
 24

China
• China is moving fast on 5G – faster than it did with 4G. In China Mobile service revenue mix
late 2018, the three Chinese mobile operators obtained RMB billion
nationwide 5G mid-band spectrum (1–6 GHz range), followed
by the first 5G licences in early June 2019. Operators are
currently conducting trials ahead of commercial 5G launches YoY growth

in October 2019 in 40 cities.

34
• The government’s ambition to make China a leading country 46 35%
in high-tech industries (Made in China 2025 strategic plan) is
46 60 31%
a major force in driving forward digital evolution. China has
made 5G a national priority, with the 5G connectivity layer 65 73 11%
helping drive broader digital transformation of the economy.
• With mobile consumer ARPU flat, the opportunity for
incremental revenue in the 5G era lies in enterprise.
Compared to the consumer segment, this is a relatively
small and unexplored market for operators. For China Mobile
(which has a 40% revenue share in the Chinese corporate
market), enterprise revenue accounts for 10% of the total 502 492 -2%
service revenue. Key targets for the Chinese operators are
autonomous driving, smart cities, remote healthcare and the
wider industrial IoT space.
• To supply the network required by 5G services, all three
operators are targeting the development of NSA and SA
concurrently, and will invest $250 billion in mobile capex
2017 2018
between 2018 and 2025, of which $180 billion will be on
5G networks. Personal mobile market revenue Corporate market revenue
Emerging business revenue Household market revenue
Source China Mobile
 25

Japan, South Korea and Australia

• Japan, South Korea and Australia are at the vanguard of • Early data points from South Korea – where mobile operators
nations seeking to deploy 5G across consumer and enterprise have signed up nearly 1 million 5G subscribers just over two
use cases. Spectrum assignments in the high frequency months after launching the service – are encouraging.
mmWave bands for deployments in stadia (e.g. Tokyo
Olympics in 2020) and high-density areas provide further
indication that these countries will continue to be global
pace-setters.

5G spectrum assignments

USA DEU ITA DNK CAN NOR EST BEL

Low band
FRA FIN SWE CHE ROU ESP
<1 GHz
ISL CZE CHL

GBR CZE ITA UAE AUT DEU JPN BGR HKG

Mid band
1–6 GHz KOR IRL FIN OMN SAU IND FRA ROU

ESP LVA CHN AUS CHE EST GRC CZE

KOR ITA USA USA TWN

mmWave HKG JPN AUS

Up to Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019+*

*data not exhaustive; preference by date Source GSMA Intelligence
 26

GCC Arab States: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,

Saudi Arabia and UAE Long-term 5G revenue opportunities in the
enterprise market
• Major operators in the GCC Arab States are looking to be MENA operators: percentage of respondents
global leaders in 5G deployments, rapidly moving from trials
to early commercialisation. By 2025, 5G will have around Entertainment

20 million connections in the Gulf (17% of the total). 50% 25% 25%

• Smartphone users in the GCC Arab States are highly engaged Logistics
in the digital world. Their engagement is as high as that of 40% 60%
mobile users in North America and the more tech-advanced
Automotive
countries across Europe and Asia Pacific. Immersive reality,
eSports and enhanced in-venue digital entertainment (stadia, 40% 40% 20%
music venues) are key areas of focus in the 5G era. Smart cities

• du, Etisalat, Ooredoo, STC, Turkcell, Zain – among others 40% 40% 20%
– are already showcasing potential applications. As Energy and utilities
video consumption continues to grow and newer AR/VR
40% 40% 20%
applications make content more immersive and data intensive,
5G will be key to supplement existing 4G networks and supply Healthcare
the mobile data traffic capacity required. 33% 33% 33%
• While the UAE and Qatar have high FTTH/B penetration Manufacturing
(above 90%), there is a significant addressable market 20% 40% 40%
for 5G-based fixed wireless in countries with limited fibre
Agriculture
penetration (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait).
20% 20% 60%
• Enterprise is also a target for operators – to that end,
there is widespread agreement among GCC operators that Big Medium Small
entertainment and logistics provide the largest 5G revenue Question Which industries or use cases do you anticipate as providing the largest 5G revenue
opportunity for operators in your country (or countries) in the longer term (5–10 years)?
opportunity in the longer term (5–10 years).
Source GSMA Intelligence 5G in MENA questionnaire (2018)
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Two line
slide title gsmaintelligence.com @GSMAi

• Bullet Fig title

Units etc.
• Bullet

Source Source