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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGE, THE ENVIRONMENT

AND THE POORT IN MONGOLIA

By Ganjuur SARANTUYA, Ph.D, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia

Background

Climate change is already a real fact in Mongolia. The results of observations at

meteorological stations in Mongolia show that the country’s annual mean temperatures
have risen by 2.1°C between 1940 and 2009. Scientists are warning that climate in
Mongolia will continue to change dramatically during the 21st Century. Because of its
specific geographical and climatic conditions, Mongolia is likely to be more heavily
influenced by global climate change. The impact of climate change on the ecological
systems and the natural resources would have a direct and dramatic affect on almost
all sectors of the national economy and all spheres of social life, i.e. it touches all
aspects of the life support system. Among these climate change challenges faced
today the country which located in dry and semi-dry regions, the issue of providing the
increasing demand of food in the face of climate change is getting more important.
Climate change response measures will help to address the inevitable need to adapt to
climate change and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, in order to meet the
requirements of Mongolia’s sustainable development strategies. Mongolia must
strengthen our ability to adapt to a changing climate.
The Millennium Development Goals-based Comprehensive National Development
Strategy (MDG-based CNDS) of Mongolia identifies the need “to create a sustainable
environment for development by promoting capacities and measures on adaptation to
climate change, halting imbalances in the country’s ecosystems and protecting them”.
In addition, the MDG-based CNDS includes a Strategic Objective to promote capacity
to adapt to climate change and desertification, and to reduce their negative impacts.
In order to address challenges relevant to climate change, Mongolia has
developed its National Action Programme on Climate Change and the programme was
approved by the Government in 2000 and updated in 2010. The action programme
includes the national policy and strategy to tackle the adverse impacts of climate
change and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
The Government has established an inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral National
Climate Committee (NCC) led by the Minister for Nature, Environment and Tourism, to
coordinate and guide national activities and measures aimed at adapting to climate
change and mitigating GHG emissions. The Climate Change Coordination Office
(CCCO), under the supervision of the Chairman of the NCC, has been established by
the Government, in order to carry out day to day activities related to the implementation
of commitments and duties under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, to manage the
nationwide activities, and to bring into action the integration of climate change related
problems in various sectors.

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Climate Change and Food Security

Current trend
The Mongolian economy has been growing in recent years. However, the growth
is not translated into significant reduction of poverty. According to the 2007-2008
Household Socio-Economic Survey, the poverty level stands at 35.2% in Mongolia. This
means a total of 930,000 people live in poverty and 35 out of every 100 persons cannot
afford to buy basic food and non-food bundle (Table 1).

Table 1. Poverty level, poverty depth, consumption and GDP per capita

Indicators 1990b 2000b 2006b 2007b 2008b 2015a

Poverty headcount 36.3 35.6 32.2 29.3 35.2 18.0
(percent) (1995) (1998)
Poverty gap ratio 10.9 11.0 10.1 8.8 10.1 6.0
(percent) (1995) (2002)
Share of poorest quintile - 7.5 6.3 6.4 7.2 11.0
in national consumption (2002)
Per capita Gross domestic 5.1 426.2 1440.7 1758.9 2305.2 6800.0
product (at current prices,
thousand tugrug)
Source: à. Parliament Resolution #13 dated in 2008: About Approval of MDGs Mongolia
á. HSES, NSO, 2009

The poverty level was reduced from 30.3% down to 26.9% in urban areas. At the
same time it increased from 43.4% to 46.6% in rural areas. The estimate of poverty
level shows an increase in the eastern and southern dry regions by 7.9-12.2%. Poverty
depth, which estimates the deficit in consumption relative to the poverty line, declined to
8.8% in 2007 compared to 2006 and regressed back to 10.1% in 2008. Thus, there
hasn’t been a significant reduction in poverty and inequality, and the poverty level
slightly fluctuates. If this trend continues further, achieving the goal of poverty reduction
will be seriously challenged.

Challenges
The poverty level in Mongolia has reduced by a mere 1.1 point over the last
nineteen years. Halving the number of people living below the poverty line in the
remaining time is thus expected to present a major challenge. Although the economic
growth has not translated into significant poverty reduction, it offers opportunities for
poor people to mobilize their main resource - labour. International experience shows
that sufficient job generation is one of the factors leading to poverty reduction. Main
reasons why the growth of Mongolian economy is not translated into poverty reduction
are increasing tendency of magnitude and frequency of natural disasters associated
with climate change, as well as the prevalence of low employment intensity growth,
which does not allow for substantial creation of new jobs.

Therefore, in order to improve the social security of the population, measures aimed at
delivering through effective mechanisms the funds allocated to the natural disaster
management, health, education and social welfare services to the vulnerable and target

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groups, as well as reform of the social welfare system and employment generation,
need to be accelerated.

Food security is not only an explicit concern under climate change; successful
adaptation and mitigation responses in the agricultural sector can only be achieved
within the environmental and economic sustainability goals set forth in both the
UNFCCC and the Millennium Development Goals. Arable farming, animal husbandry
and forestry are among the most climate-sensitive and vulnerable sectors. Therefore
their production processes – whether for food, feed, fiber, beverage, or for livestock,
poultry, forest products – will be heavily impacted by climate change. In the next
decades, impacts in dry regions are expected to be negative, although there is still
considerable uncertainty about how projected changes will play out locally, and
projected impacts could also be altered by adoption of risk management measures and
adaptation strategies that strengthen preparedness and resilience.

Policies and Measures on Adaptation to Climate Change in

agricultural sector of Mongolia

Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to current weather and climate

variations and changes with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and
urban food security. The challenges posed by climate change to agriculture and food
security require an approach that links knowledge and expertise with action in rural and
urban food security. More frequent and more intense, extreme weather will have
adverse immediate impacts on food production, food distribution infrastructure, on
livelihood assets and opportunities in the country, in particular in rural and remote
areas. Changes in mean temperatures and rainfall, increasing weather variability will
affect the suitability of land for different types of crops and natural pasture, the health
and productivity of forests, the incidence of pests and diseases, biodiversity and
ecosystems. Loss of arable land is likely due to increased aridity and groundwater
depletion in Mongolia.

Changes in agricultural production patterns will affect food security in two ways. These
are:

1. Impacts on all forms of agricultural production will affect livelihoods and ability to
access food. Producer groups less able to deal with climate change, such as the
rural herders and farmers in the country, risk having their safety and welfare
compromised.
2. Impacts on the production of food will affect food supply at national and local levels.
Dry climate condition and high frequency of weather and climate related natural
disasters in Mongolia will limit the possibilities of the country to meet the increased
food productions. Therefore, it is important to strengthen the more resilient food
supply system to changed climate condition.

Climate change will worsen the living conditions of herders, farmers, forest-
dependent people who are already vulnerable and food insecure. Malnutrition might be
increased. Rural communities dependent on agriculture in a fragile environment will
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face an immediate risk of increased crop failure and loss of livestock. Mostly at risk are
people living along dryland, Gobi deserts and mountainous regions. In general, poor
people living in both rural and urban areas will be at risk of food insecurity due to loss of
assets and lack of adequate insurance coverage.

In the new Millennium and in the era of globalization and climate change, the new
technology needs to be introduced into the most vulnerable environmental components
and economic sectors to make them independent of the environment and the weather
hazards, through renovation and improvement of conventional methods and
approaches. Today, it is impossible to provide sustainable development without
providing a correlation of economic acceleration, human growth and natural resource
utility. Mongolia has formulated and implemented a sustainable development policy as
the milestone of the state development strategies.
The measures to reduce the adverse affects on food security of the country
caused by climate change are based on impact and vulnerability assessment of climate
change on the natural resources and agriculture sector. Also, new developments and
amendments of policies and legal documents are required in order align them with
recent climate change and the latest socio-economic development updates.
The most important climate change adaptation measures and actions that are
very closely related to the food security strategies of the country are focused in the
following areas of agricultural sector:
• Land degradation, desertification and decrease of land fertility
• Natural disasters and communicable diseases
• Animal Husbandry
• Arable farming
• Water Resources

Implementation strategy of adaptation measures

The major part of adaptation is targeted on studies and assessments of climate

change impact, including evaluation of the impact of climate change, its dangers and
risks and the formulation of methods and measures to mitigate it. Efficient methods and
strategies are needed in the first place in order to implement an adaptation policy on
climate change. Implementation strategies must include factors related to legislation,
structure, finance, human resources, science and media, and coherence with other
policies and strategies. Also, it is vital to assess the subjective and objective
impediments to the implementation of strategy and to take into the consideration how it
is correlated with other socio-economic demands, while formulating a methodology to
overcome or facilitate the removal of these impediments.
The sustainable development of Mongolia is largely dependent on the beneficent
cooperation of the environment and the economy, while the economy is closely related
with natural resources such as pastureland, animal husbandry, agriculture and natural
resource utility. Adaptation technology usually requires a considerable amount of
investment at the outset. On the other hand, the efficiency of adaptation measurements

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is not easily recognized in the short term and it takes a tremendous amount of effort
and time before visible result are achieved.
Hence the priority concerns are as follows:
1. Organizing broad activities on climate change such as public awareness
campaign and many other kinds of trainings among decision making
authorities, farmers, the people working in the agricultural sector and the entire
nation;
2. Providing herders and farmers with information and new technology;
3. Inventing technology and conducting surveys and studies oriented towards
resolving the issues efficiently and to provide sustainable agricultural
development;
4. Taking management actions targeted on providing coherence between
surveys, monitoring and information

Apart from funding, the major factors in the successful implementation of

adaptation procedures are ability, willingness and the concern of the people involved
with the realization process. A successful completion is guaranteed only when there
is provision for public participation in the action. The herders, farmers and local
communities are the first sectors to benefit from a policy of adaptation. Also, it is crucial
to have the participation and assistance of experts and specialists in training,
fertilization, selection and invention of new breeds and irrigation construction. Currently
the importance of taking action to increase public awareness of climate change is
obvious, as well as the need to increase government willingness to cooperate with
NGO-s and the public, to be supported by them and provide them with adequate
information.

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