Grassroots Briefing: Building 

the Pro-European Alliance 

It starts with you 
This briefing for pro-European campaigners is intended to supplement Best for Britain’s 
Grassroots guide to building the Pro-European Alliance​. It should help local campaigners to 
effectively take part in and drive the formation of Alliances from the ground up.  

Does North Wales need Alliances?  

No Deal Brexit must be stopped. Government analysis shows North Wales’ no-deal economy could 
shrink by up to 9.5 % in the longer term.1 Wales is predicted to see a rise in prices of over 3%.2  

EU Exports:  
Wrexham is heavily reliant on exports to the EU for the local economy - exporting a larger 
proportion of goods to the EU than most of the rest of the UK.3   

Aerospace:  
The Airbus plant in Flintshire has been manufacturing planes since the Second World War and 
employs 6,000 local people. Airbus has warned that, in the event of no-deal, it would seriously 
consider whether it could continue production in the UK. This places those 6,000 jobs in Flintshire 
at serious risk, and also endangers the 14,000 people who are directly employed by Airbus across 
the UK.4 Airbus predicts it would be facing a no-deal cost of £1billion a week which, in its’ Brexit 
impact assessment, would “force Airbus to reconsider its footprint in the country”.5 

Holyhead:  
Since the removal of customs checks between Wales and Ireland in 1993, the amount of traffic 
between Dublin and Holyhead has increased by 694%.6 Holyhead is the second largest UK port 
behind Dover, and a no-deal Brexit would produce significant disruption. The introduction of a 
post no-deal Brexit permit system would have severe drawbacks. Welsh ports could be considered 
less attractive than others if new permits caused a change in the type of cargo being transported, 
and Holyhead would need to adapt its facilities to accommodate this change.7 

1
​EU Exit Analysis’​, Cross Whitehall Briefing pg 23  
2
​An Equal Exit: The Distributional Consequences of Leaving the EU.​ pg 16 
3
​An Equal Exit: The Distributional Consequences of Leaving the EU​ pg 12 
4
​Airbus plans UK job cuts amid fears of hard Brexit impact 
5
​Airbus Brexit Risk Assessment  
6
​Inquiry into the implications of Brexit for Welsh ports​ pg 18 
7
​Preparing for Brexit: Follow-up report on the preparedness of Welsh ports​ pg 17 

Printed and promoted by Best for Britain, the campaign name of UK-EU OPEN POLICY LIMITED registered at 
International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London, EC1A 2BN. Best for Britain is registered with The Electoral 
Commission. 
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 Best for Britain - Grassroots groups Pro-EU Alliance briefing note 

How do we know an Alliance will work? 

 

Left:​ This chart shows what would happen if 

there was a Conservative / Brexit Party Pact 
in a general election but no alliance of 
Pro-European parties.  

In this situation, the Brexit Party and the 

Conservatives would take 25 seats in 
combined total in Wales.8  

If Pro-EU parties fail to work together, it 

splits the vote and allows the Brexiters to 
take a majority in Wales.   

Right:​ This second chart however, shows what can 

be achieved where there is a full Pro-EU Alliance, 
including the Labour party, against a Tory/Brexit 
Party Pact.  

We can see the huge effect that working together 

would have. A Pro-EU Alliance has a real chance to 
massively shift the balance of power in Wales. 

 
 

Are voters in Wales ready for a Pro-EU Alliance? 

Best for Britain’s ‘Brexit Shift’ report from December 20189 found 56.2% of voters in Wales now 
back staying in the EU - a significant change from the 2016 referendum result where 52.5% of 

8
Labour would hold on to only 11 total seats, their worst ever performance in Wales in the post-WW2 period.  
9
Brexit Shift 2.0, published by Best for Britain and Hope not hate, December 2018, 
https://www.bestforbritain.org/brexit-shift-2 

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 Best for Britain - Grassroots groups Pro-EU Alliance briefing note 

 
voters backed Leave. 39 of 40 seats would back remain. Rhondda, for instance, was one of the 
highest leave voting constituencies in Wales in 2016. Our analysis shows that it would now vote 
remain by 53.0% (14.2% shift), the largest shift in Wales of its kind. 

Who needs an Alliance? 

● Over 1.9 million switchers: ​Since the referendum, UK public opinion has shifted towards 
remaining in the EU, with over 10% of 2016 Leave voters now backing Remain as of 
November 2018. 
● Almost a fifth of UK voters are ‘persuadable’:​ ​Our data shows that 17% of UK voters can 
change their minds on Brexit, with 7% being soft Leavers that could potentially move 
towards Remain.  

So who are the switchers?  

In North Wales, the biggest group of switchers from Leave to Remain are young voters (especially 
young women) that either supported Labour in 2015 or have switched from supporting the 
Conservatives in 2015 to Labour or other parties in 2017.  

Young (18-34) women who supported the Conservatives in 2015 are the demographic most likely 
to have switched, with over 20% of those who voted Leave now in favour of staying in.  

● For those young female Leavers that voted Conservative in 2015 but did not support the 
Tories in 2017, the number is 25%.  
● The trend is largely the same among young people that voted for Labour in 2015: 20% of 
Leave supporters in this demographic have switched to Remain.  

Young people, women, and disillusioned Conservative voters will continue to shift towards 
Remain as the consequences of a no deal Brexit become ever more apparent. 

What can you do? 

You have a voice. You represent a body of opinion in your area and on that basis alone you 
have a platform. But more than that, you represent an organised group with a supporter 
base and volunteers separate from the local political parties. That’s no small thing. 

Use your platform and the assets you have been building up over the past three years -  

● Use your status as a community leader to meet local party representatives in person 
● Use your platform to convene negotiations as a party-political ‘neutral’ participant  
● Use your group’s organisation as proof you can provide support and volunteers for the 
Alliance candidate 
● Use your supporters and volunteers to lobby local politicians 
● Use your social media to highlight the need for an Alliance and the support for it 
● Use local spokespeople to write to local papers and promote the Alliance 

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 Best for Britain - Grassroots groups Pro-EU Alliance briefing note 

Every area has different politics, history and local character. There is no one-size-fits-all answer. 
That’s why you, as a local campaigner, are best placed to make this happen. ​Good luck! 

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