Grassroots Briefing: 

Building the Pro-European 

Alliance 
It starts with you 
This briefing for pro-European campaigners is intended to supplement Best for Britain’s 
Grassroots guide to building the Pro-European Alliance​. It should help local campaigners to 
effectively take part in and drive the formation of Alliances from the ground up.  

Does Mid-Wales need Alliances? 

No Deal Brexit must be stopped. Government analysis shows Mid-Wales’ no-deal economy could 
shrink by up to 9.5 % in the long term.1 Wales is predicted to see a rise in prices of over 3%.2  

Agriculture:  
Ceredigion’s agricultural sector has benefited immensely from the EU’s Common Agricultural 
Policy (CAP). In 2014, CAP spending was estimated at £580 per head in Ceredigion.3 With 
approximately a third of Wales’ population living in rural areas, it is clear a no-deal Brexit would 
severely impact rural communities who rely upon farming, agriculture and the local economies it 
creates.4   

Economic Impact:  
The economy of Mid-Wales would be severely impacted by a no-deal Brexit. The local authority of 
Ceredigion, for example, is facing economic damage worth approximately £22.64m. According to 
the think tank Demos, Wales is classed as at high risk of damage to its ability to export goods to the 
EU, as well as missing out on vital EU funding.5 Ceredigion has benefited from EU Structural 
Funding to the tune of £44 million a year, approximately £130 per head in the County.6 When we 
include CAP spending, Ceredigion benefits from an estimated £710 per head per year in EU 
funding.7 

1
​EU Exit Analysis’​,​ Cross Whitehall Briefing pg 23  
2
​An Equal Exit: The Distributional Consequences of Leaving the EU.​ pg 16 
3
​Impact of Leaving the EU on Ceredigion's economy 
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​Agricultural Industry needs at least 10 years to adjust to post-Brexit policies, according to the FUW 
5
​Wales and the manufacturing industry most at risk from a “hard Brexit” 
6
​Impact of Leaving the EU on Ceredigion's economy 
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​Impact of Leaving the EU on Ceredigion's economy 

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International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London, EC1A 2BN. Best for Britain is registered with The Electoral 
Commission. 
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University:   
Higher education makes up 20% of Ceridigion’s economic output and is heavily at risk from Brexit. 
EU27 students comprise approximately 15% of the student population at Aberystwyth University, 
and these students often rely upon access to student funding for their tuition. Access to this 
funding is an area of key concern for students, as well as wider eligibility for EU Research funding.8 
As one example, Aberystwyth University received £7.9 million in funding for research into 
developing techniques of bio-refining.9  

How do we know an Alliance will work? 

 

Left:​ This chart shows what would happen if 

there was a Conservative / Brexit Party Pact 
in a general election but no alliance of 
Pro-European parties.  

In this situation, the Brexit Party and the 

Conservatives would take 25 seats in 
combined total in Wales.10  

If Pro-EU parties fail to work together, it 

splits the vote and allows the Brexiters to 
take a majority in Wales.   

Right:​ This second chart however, shows what can 

be achieved where there is a full Pro-EU Alliance, 
including the Labour party, against a Tory/Brexit 
Party Pact.  

We can see the huge effect that working together 

would have. A Pro-EU Alliance has a real chance to 
massively shift the balance of power in Wales. 

 
 

8
​Understanding Brexit: Impacts at a local level​ pg 3 
9
​myeu.uk 
10
Labour would hold on to only 11 total seats, their worst ever performance in Wales in the post-WW2 
period.  

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 Best for Britain - Grassroots groups Pro-EU Alliance briefing note 

Are voters in Wales ready for a Pro-EU Alliance? 

Best for Britain’s ‘Brexit Shift’ report from December 201811 found 56.2% of voters in Wales now 
back staying in the EU - a significant change from the 2016 referendum result where 52.5% of 
voters backed Leave. 39 of 40 seats would back remain. Rhondda, for instance, was one of the 
highest leave voting constituencies in Wales in 2016. Our analysis shows that it would now vote 
remain by 53.0% (14.2% shift), the largest shift in Wales of its kind. 

Who needs an Alliance? 

● Over 1.9 million switchers: ​Since the referendum, UK public opinion has shifted towards 
remaining in the EU, with over 10% of 2016 Leave voters now backing Remain as of 
November 2018. 
● Almost a fifth of UK voters are ‘persuadable’:​ ​Our data shows that 17% of UK voters can 
change their minds on Brexit, with 7% being soft Leavers that could potentially move 
towards Remain.  

So who are the switchers?  

In mid-Wales, the biggest group of switchers from Leave to Remain are young voters (especially 
young women) that either supported Labour in 2015 or have switched from supporting the 
Conservatives in 2015 to Labour or other parties in 2017.  

Young (18-34) women who supported the Conservatives in 2015 are the demographic most likely 
to have switched, with over 20% of those who voted Leave now in favour of staying in.  

● For those young female Leavers that voted Conservative in 2015 but did not support the 
Tories in 2017, the number is 25%.  
● The trend is largely the same among young people that voted for Labour in 2015: 20% of 
Leave supporters in this demographic have switched to Remain.  

Young people, women, and disillusioned Conservative voters will continue to shift towards 
Remain as the consequences of a no deal Brexit become ever more apparent. 

What can you do? 

You have a voice. You represent a body of opinion in your area and on that basis alone you 
have a platform. But more than that, you represent an organised group with a supporter 
base and volunteers separate from the local political parties. That’s no small thing. 

Use your platform and the assets you have been building up over the past three years -  

● Use your status as a community leader to meet local party representatives in person 
● Use your platform to convene negotiations as a party-political ‘neutral’ participant  
● Use your group’s organisation as proof you can provide support and volunteers for the 
Alliance candidate 

11
Brexit Shift 2.0, published by Best for Britain and Hope not hate, December 2018, 
https://www.bestforbritain.org/brexit-shift-2 

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 Best for Britain - Grassroots groups Pro-EU Alliance briefing note 

 
● Use your supporters and volunteers to lobby local politicians 
● Use your social media to highlight the need for an Alliance and the support for it 
● Use local spokespeople to write to local papers and promote the Alliance 

Every area has different politics, history and local character. There is no one-size-fits-all answer. 
That’s why you, as a local campaigner, are best placed to make this happen. ​Good luck! 

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