(untitled)

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for
for Windows,
Windows, V3.
V3.

Data Error analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1700
February 1500 5000
March 1800
April 1400 1666.667 -266.667 266.6667 71111.11 0.190476 4500
May 1250 1566.667 -316.667 316.6667 100277.8 0.253333 4000
June 1350 1483.333 -133.333 133.3333 17777.78 0.098765
3500
July 3400 1333.333 2066.667 2066.667 4271111 0.607843
August 3550 2000 1550 1550 2402500 0.43662 3000
September 3650 2766.667 883.3333 883.3333 780277.8 0.242009
2500
October 2000 3533.333 -1533.33 1533.333 2351111 0.766667

Value
November 1500 3066.667 -1566.67 1566.667 2454444 1.044444 2000
December 2000 2383.333 -383.333 383.3333 146944.4 0.191667
1500
January 1500 1833.333 -333.333 333.3333 111111.1 0.222222
February 1850 1666.667 183.3333 183.3333 33611.11 0.099099 1000
March 1850 1783.333 66.66667 66.66667 4444.444 0.036036
500
April 1950 1733.333 216.6667 216.6667 46944.44 0.111111
May 2050 1883.333 166.6667 166.6667 27777.78 0.081301 0
June 2000 1950 50 50 2500 0.025 1
July 3000 2000 1000 1000 1000000 0.333333
August 3800 2350 1450 1450 2102500 0.381579
September 3700 2933.333 766.6667 766.6667 587777.8 0.207207
October 2000 3500 -1500 1500 2250000 0.75
November 1200 3166.667 -1966.67 1966.667 3867778 1.638889
December 1300 2300 -1000 1000 1000000 0.769231
January 1700 1500 200 200 40000 0.117647
February 1700 1400 300 300 90000 0.176471
March 1200 1566.667 -366.667 366.6667 134444.4 0.305556
April 2700 1533.333 1166.667 1166.667 1361111 0.432099
May 2900 1866.667 1033.333 1033.333 1067778 0.356322
June 3050 2266.667 783.3333 783.3333 613611.1 0.256831
July 3500 2883.333 616.6667 616.6667 380277.8 0.17619
August 3700 3150 550 550 302500 0.148649
September 3800 3416.667 383.3333 383.3333 146944.4 0.100877
October 2200 3666.667 -1466.67 1466.667 2151111 0.666667
November 1800 3233.333 -1433.33 1433.333 2054444 0.796296
December 2000 2600 -600 600 360000 0.3
January 1800 2000 -200 200 40000 0.111111
February 1850 1866.667 -16.6667 16.66667 277.7778 0.009009
March 1850 1883.333 -33.3333 33.33333 1111.111 0.018018
April 2500 1833.333 666.6667 666.6667 444444.4 0.266667
May 2700 2066.667 633.3333 633.3333 401111.1 0.234568
June 2500 2350 150 150 22500 0.06
July 3800 2566.667 1233.333 1233.333 1521111 0.324561
August 4500 3000 1500 1500 2250000 0.333333
September 4500 3600 900 900 810000 0.2
October 2500 4266.667 -1766.67 1766.667 3121111 0.706667
November 1900 3833.333 -1933.33 1933.333 3737778 1.017544
December 1940 2966.667 -1026.67 1026.667 1054044 0.52921
January 2000 2113.333 -113.333 113.3333 12844.44 0.056667
February 2150 1946.667 203.3333 203.3333 41344.44 0.094574
March 2350 2030 320 320 102400 0.13617
April 2500 2166.667 333.3333 333.3333 111111.1 0.133333
May 2570 2333.333 236.6667 236.6667 56011.11 0.092088
June 2930 2473.333 456.6667 456.6667 208544.4 0.155859
July 3880 2666.667 1213.333 1213.333 1472178 0.312715
Total 3323.333 39236.67 47740144 17.11253
Average 63.91026 754.5513 918079.7 0.329087
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 977.1402
Next period 3126.66667
 Forecasting
5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500 Demand
Value

Forecast
2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 15 1 7 1 9 2 1 23 25 27 29 31 33 3 5 3 7 3 9 41 43 45 47 49 51 5 3 5 5

Time
 Demand
Forecast

7 49 51 5 3 5 5