CLO#2 – Mampu Melakukan (Membuat)

Chapter 2
Risk Assessment Step By Step
Pertemuan #6
Menentukan Konteks Assessmen Risiko: Kriteria Signifikansi Risiko

Team Teaching
Quality System Engineering
School of Industrial & System Engineering - Telkom University 2019
 Risk Assessment
Context : Risk Criteria?
 Risk Assessment Steps

Establishing The R
1
I
Sudah Dibahas Context S
Risk Identification
Di Pertemuan • Process Objectives K
Sebelumnya • Assessment Scope
• External-Internal Issues 2
A
• External – Internal S
Pertemuan Sebelumnya
Stakeholders Needs
Risk Analysis S
Baru Membahas Kriteria E
Penentuan Atau • Risk Criteria
S
Pembagian Topik Asesment
Risiko 3
S
M
Risk Evaluation E
Risk
Ada 2 Kriteria N
1. Kriteria Fokus Asesment Berbasis Topik Treatment T
2. Kriteria Signifikansi Risiko

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Kriteria Signifikansi Risiko
1. Kriteria Likelihood Kejadian Risiko
(Likelihood Matrix)
2. Kriteria Severity Risiko (Severity Matrix)
3. Formula Risiko
4. Kriteria Evaluasi Keputusan Treatment
Risiko (Risk Matrix)

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Risk Assessment Context : Risk Criteria
Risk Criteria : Reflect the
process/ organization's
objectives and abilities.
Information From Risk Assessment Contexts

• Risk Assessment Objectives

• Process Objectives & Abilities KNOWLEDGE YANG Risk
• Process Scope Significance
DIGUNAKAN UNTUK
• Potential Treat and Opportunities From
Internal & External Issues MENGEMBANGKAN Criteria
• Potential Threat and Opportunities From
Internal-External Stakeholders
Fokus (Topik) Assessment [Key
Elements Hasil Pengembangan Kriteria
Pengorganisasian Proses Assessmen
Risiko] 6
Kriteria Likelihood Kejadian
Risiko (Likelihood Matrix)?
Likelihood Criteria
Initial Knowledge (Konteks)

Risk
Risk Event Consequences
Source

UNCERTAINTY

Measure by Likelihood / Probability

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Likelihood Criteria

Likelihood
Level (Scale)

Level Likelihood
Descriptor Description

9
Likelihood Description Approach

QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE
APPROACH APPROACH

Statistics: Likert Scale

• Frequency (Ordinal)
• Probability Model

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Likelihood Criteria: Examples
Qualitatively Approach
Likelihood Level Descriptor Description

1 Unlikely Do not expect it happen/recur but it possible it may do

so
2 Likely Will probably happen/ recur, but it is not persisting issue/
circumstances
3 Almost Certain Will undoubtedly happen/ recur, possibly frequently

Quantitively Approach
LIKELIHOOD Likelihood Descriptor Description
Level (Probability)
MATRIX 1
2
Unlikely
Possible
0 - 0,10
0,11 – 0,60
3 Almost Certain >= 0,71 11
Kriteria Severity Risiko
(Severity Matrix)?
Kriteria Signifikansi Risiko
1. Kriteria Likelihood Kejadian Risiko
(Likelihood Matrix)
2. Kriteria Severity Risiko (Severity Matrix)
3. Formula Risiko
4. Kriteria Evaluasi Keputusan Treatment
Risiko (Risk Matrix)

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Risk Consequences & Severity Criteria

Risk Source Risk Event Consequences

Effect on Effect on Abilities to

Objectives Achieve Objectives

Consequences

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Severity Criteria
Measurement
of Impact and
Characteristics its Significant
• Related to Objectives
• Related to Process Abilities
• Unique (Berbeda Untuk Setiap Organisasi, Meski Untuk
Bisnis Yang Serupa)

LEVEL OF DESCRIPTION
SCALE SEVERITY OF SEVERITY
 SEVERITY
Severity Criteria: Examples MATRIX
Severity Description
Level Descriptor
Financial Ecology Health & Safety
1 Minor Profit Reduction Moderate, Sort-term Requiring Hospitalization
< 10% Environment Effect
2 Moderate Profit Reduction Serious, Medium term Moderate Irreversible
10% - 30% environment effect Disability, effect < 20
persons
3 Major Profit Reduction Very Serious, Long-term Multi Fatalities, Effect to >
> 30% environment effect 20 Persons

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Formula Risiko?
Kriteria Signifikansi Risiko
1. Kriteria Likelihood Kejadian Risiko
(Likelihood Matrix)
2. Kriteria Severity Risiko (Severity Matrix)
3. Formula Risiko
4. Kriteria Evaluasi Keputusan Treatment
Risiko (Risk Matrix)

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Risk Formula (Risk Scoring)

Risk Model

Risk Source Risk Event Consequences

Measure of Uncertainty Event = Likelihood

Risk = Likelihood X Consequences …….(1)

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Risk Formula (Risk Scoring)

Risk = Likelihood X Consequences … (1)

complicating factors (non linear relationships)

… (2)
Note:
C = Consequences
L = Likelihood

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Risk Formula (Risk Scoring)

Risk = Likelihood X Consequences … (1)

Likelihood = Threat x Vulnerability

Risk = [Threat x Vulnerability] x Consequences … (3)

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 Risk Formula (Risk Scoring)

Risk = Likelihood X Consequences … (1)

Likelihood = [Product Usage x Business Value x Vendor Audit Likelihood]

Consequences = [[Product Cost + Penalty]

Product Audit Risk

= [Product Usage x Business Value x Vendor Audit Likelihood] x [Product Cost + Penalty]
… (4)

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 Kriteria Evaluasi
Keputusan Treatment
Risiko (Risk Matrix)?
Kriteria Signifikansi Risiko
1. Kriteria Likelihood Kejadian Risiko
(Likelihood Matrix)
2. Kriteria Severity Risiko (Severity Matrix)
3. Formula Risiko
4. Kriteria Evaluasi Keputusan Treatment
Risiko (Risk Matrix)

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Risk Matrix

Risk Matrix Components

1.Risk Rating
2.Risk Bands (Color and Grouping)
3.Level of Concern (Responsibility)
4.Decision Rule for Risk Treatment
5.Exclusion

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Risk Matrix

1
Risk Rating

High Rating
Level of Urgency &
Medium Rating
Significances
Low Rating
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 +

Risk
Matrix
Risk Score Risk Rating
Nilai Risiko 1–7 LOW
(Sesuai 8 – 15 MEDIUM
Formula
Risiko) 16 - 25 HIGH
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Risk Matrix
2
Risk Bands
Risk Score Risk Rating Risk Bands
1–7 LOW HIJAU
8 – 15 MEDIUM KUNING
16 - 25 HIGH MERAH

Warna memiliki nilai psikologis dan mudah

dipahami dalam komunikasi pengelolaan risiko
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Risk Matrix 3
Level of Concern (Responsibility)

Level of Responsibility
Level of Risk

High Rating
Top Management

Medium Rating Middle Management

Low Rating Operation

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Risk Matrix
3 Level of Concern (Responsibility)

SAFETY
Safety = Bukan tidak ada risiko,
namun risiko yang ada sudah
pada tingkat yang bisa diterima

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Risk Matrix

4 Decision Rule for Risk Treatment

Level of Risk Level of Responsibility 5 Exclusion

High Rating Treatments (Must)
Treat Specific Risk Even
Treatment Decision Depend on
Its Low Risk Score
Medium Rating Cost Benefit Analysis

Low Rating Accept Risk (Safety)

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Risk Matrix: Example
Consequences (Severity Level)

Likelihood 1 2 3 4 5
Negligible Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
1 Rare
2 Unlikely R07

3 Possible R05

4 Likely R01

5 Almost
Certain
Note: High Risk
• Decision Rules: ……………….
Medium Risk
• Level of Concern: …………………..
• Exclusion: ……………….. Low Risk
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Rangkuman Risk Criteria
Risk Criteria
Kriteria Untuk Mengarahkan Fokus Dalam
Risk Key Elements
Identifikasi Risiko

Likelihood Matrix
Kriteria Untuk Menentukan Tingkat
Severity Matrix Signifikansi Risiko Berupa Nilai Risiko
Risk Formula

Kriteria Untuk Pengambilan Keputusan

Risk Matrix
Tindakan Penanganan Risiko

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Thank You
1. Fill your question in Discussion Forum
2. See you in next lecturer notes on “ Process lifecycle and uncertainty in Process” to
understand how a process be in uncertainty circumstance in Achieving its reference
value(s)