Donegal SW

By Election Poll

November 2010

(1)
Job No: 36210
Methodology

RED C interviewed a random sample of 510 adults aged 18+ by telephone between
the 12th & 16th Nov 2010.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of
households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are
covered.

The margin of error on results is estimated to be + or – 4.4% at 95% confidence level.

Interviews were conducted across the constituency in proportion to latest population
data within each electoral district and the results weighted to the profile of all adults
within the constituency.

A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people
voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to
halfway between the two.

Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a
10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are
included as being those who will actually go and vote.

Data from this report can be published as long as reference is given to both Paddy
Power and RED C.

(2)
Summary of Main Findings

• Senator Pearse Doherty looks as if he will win the by-election to be held next week in
Donegal South West by some margin, taking 40% of the first preference vote in
today's Paddy Power/RED C by-election poll.
• Brian O’Domhnaill takes the next highest share of the vote in the poll, securing 19%
of the first preference vote. However, relatively poor second preference transfers
suggest even after the count he is unlikely to trouble the Sinn Fein candidate.
• Barry O’Neill, Fine Gael and Frank McBrearty Junior, Labour; both secure a similar
share of first preference vote in the constituency at 15% and 14% respectively, but
initial analyses of transfers suggests McBrearty will end up ahead.
• While the current by-election may influence voters choices somewhat, when asked
about a general election Sinn Fein again do well, securing 31% of the first preference
vote, an increase of 10% when compared to their performance in 2007.
• Labour also make good gains in the constituency in terms of a general election, with
their first preference share ahead of their by-election showing at 18%. This
represents a significant increase of 15% share since 2007.
• This surge in support for Labour is perhaps influenced by voters preferred choice for
Taoiseach, in which Eamonn Gilmore is preferred by almost half (46%) of all voters
in the constituency.

(3)
Summary of Main Findings

• Fianna Fail are the big losers in terms of a potential general election showing, with a
1st preference share of just 19%, down 32% since the last general election. While
part of this may be due to the fact that Mary Coughlan is not of course involved in the
by-election it doesn’t bode well for the party should an election be called in the near
future.
• Fine Gael may be disappointed to only take 25% share, a modest increase of just
2% since 2007, and this may persuade them to only run one candidate at the next
election, as the two candidate approach appears to split the vote somewhat.
• This relatively weak showing by Fine Gael, despite the collapse of the Fianna Fail
vote, like Labour could somewhat be attributed to voters preferred choice of
Taoiseach, where Enda Kenny is preferred by only 1 in 5 (18%) of all voters in the
constituency.

(4)
Share of first preference vote across candidates in by-election

(Base: All Likely to Vote in Constituency)

1st Preference

Pearse Doherty, SF 40

Brian O’Domhnaill, FF 19

Barry O’Neill, FG 16

Frank McBrearty Junior, Lab 15

Thomas Pringle, Ind 8

Ann Sweeney, Ind 2

(5)
Share of first & second preference vote across candidates in by-election

(Base: All Likely to Vote in Constituency)

2ND
1st Preference Preference

Pearse Doherty, SF 40 19%

Brian O’Domhnaill, FF 19 10%

Barry O’Neill, FG 16 14%

Frank McBrearty Junior, Lab 15 20%

Thomas Pringle, Ind 8 9%

Ann Sweeney, Ind 2 7%

(6)
Share of first preference vote across candidates in a possible General
Election
(Base: All Likely to Vote in Constituency)
GE 2007

Pearse Doherty, SF 31 21%

Frank McBrearty Junior, Lab 18 n/a

Dinny McGinley, FG 13 23%

Barry O’Neill, FG 12 n/a

Mary Coughlan, FF 10 26%

Brian O’Domhnaill, FF 9 n/a

Thomas Pringle, Ind 6 n/a

N.B. Please note that due to
the fact that this was a By–
Ann Sweeney, Ind 1 Election poll this may have n/a
made by-election candidates
more top of mind

(7)
Share of first preference vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow
– by party vs. last General Election 2007 in Donegal South West
(Base: All Likely to Vote in Constituency)

Opinion General
Poll Election
51% Nov 10 2007

N.B. Please note that due to

the fact that this was a By–
31% Election poll this may have
made by-election candidates
25% more top of mind
23%
21%
19% 18%

7%
3%
0% 1% 1%

Fianna Fail Fine Gael Sinn Fein Labour Green Other

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Best Taoiseach after Next General Election
Q.1 Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe
would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election?
(Base: All Adults 18+ )

%
Eamonn Gilmore 46

Enda Kenny 18

Brian Cowen 13

None of these 13

Don’t know 10

(Q.2)

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