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AGRICULTURE WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN PAKISTAN: A REVIEW

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 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2009)
 

AGRICULTURE WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN PAKISTAN: A

REVIEW AND PERSPECTIVE

Asif M. Bhatti 1, Pongsak Suttinon 2 and Seigo Nasu 3

1,2
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, COE, Kochi University of Technology, Kochi, Japan.
3
Director, MoT Department, Kochi University of Technology, Kochi.

ABSTRACT: It is universal truth that meager resources compel for their better utilization and preservation. Most
of developing countries lack in renewable fresh water resources. In Pakistan, it is more importance than ordinary
due to the agrarian nature of its economy. Per capita water availability has decreased from 5260 m3 in 1951 to
1050 m3 in 2008. The share of agriculture sector in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Pakistan is about 24%
and about 60% of the population depends on agriculture and allied industries for their bread and butter. Since
water is the major input in agriculture, the agricultural productivity and its sustainability depend on the timely and
adequate availability of water. In Pakistan, agriculture is the major consumer of water and utilizing more than
95% of country’s water resources. About 80% of the cropped area is irrigated, and 90% of the agricultural output
comes from irrigated land. Climatic change and global warming is also effecting the availability of water at
critical times during the crop growth and the inadequate physical and institutional infrastructure is not sufficient
to cope with its adverse impacts. The water demand varies in both space and time, however, the water supply is at
the best fixed and its availability is at the mercy of nature. The present paper comprehensively describe the
present situation of irrigated water, crop yield, current agriculture practices, agriculture vs. GDP and impact of
climatic change on agriculture. Water demand management model for agriculture sector was developed and future
water and food demand was forecasted under different environmental scenarios. Notion such as “soft path” is
needed to be adopted to cope with food and fiber requirement of more than 200 million people by the year 2025.
In order to meet the water demand for environment, economic and people’s life, there is scope for significant
improvement in the efficiency of water utilization, which if achieved should enhance the overall sustainability.

KEYWORDS: Water scarcity, Climatic Impact, Agricultural water demand, Forecast Model

1. INTRODUCTION and completion of water, the incompatible claims for

Water is the resource that sustains all life on earth and
is a key element of sustainable development. Most of
developing countries lack in renewable fresh water
resources. The nations that are well endowed in fresh
water resources have an economic advantage over
those less fortunate. Irrigation consumes more than 80
percent of all the available water supplies in Asia. Asia
accounts for 79 percent (370 Million hectare, Mha) of
all annualized irrigated areas, followed by Europe (7%)
and North America (7%). About 50 percent of global
irrigation area is found in six Asian countries: India
(21.7 % of the world’s total irrigated area), China
(19.4%), Pakistan (6.6%), Iran (2.8 %), Indonesia
(1.8%) and Thailand (1.7%) [1]. Bastiaanssen et al.
(2002) mentioned that for Pakistan the difference
between official irrigated areas and actual irrigated
areas could be more than 100% at canal command area
level [2]. In today’s environment of growing scarcity
more and more irrigation water are imposing pressure
on available water resources. The available water
resources are becoming fully committed and the
irrigation expansion option will be increasingly
difficult to pursue because many river basins have
already been developed to their maximum capacity.
The irrigation supplies do not meet the crop needs for
better crop yield. The volume of water supply is not
matched with the time pattern of crop needs. The
imbalance between water supply and demand varies
greatly both regionally and seasonally. Historically,
water has been managed from purely a supply
perspective with an emphasis on expansion of irrigated
area by constructing new dams. However, little
attention has been given to efficient utilization of
available resources to synchronize the demand-supply
gap. In Pakistan, the gap between water demand and
supply has increased manifolds, due to increased
agriculture activities and reduced river flow. The gap
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2009)
generally widens in summer growing season as
compared to winter growing season and it widens also
towards the tail end of distributaries and watercourses.
Since water is the major input in agriculture, the
agricultural productivity and its sustainability depends
on the timely and adequate availability of water.
2. OBJECTIVE
The present paper comprehensively delineate the
present situation of irrigated agriculture, crop yield,
current agriculture practices, agriculture vs. GDP and
impact of climatic change on agriculture in Indus basin,
Pakistan. The spatial variation of water supply and
demand was analyzed and future water and food
demand was forecasted under different environmental
scenarios. The study also identifies issues that are
important for estimating the future water demand and
for the formation of policy for future water-resources
development and management.
3. BACKGROUND
3.1 Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), Pakistan
The Indus Basin (with its five major tributaries – Sutlej,
Beas, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum) is the major source of
water in the country.
Figure 1: The Indus Basin irrigation System (IBIS) of
Pakistan
2 
IBIS is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the
world and is the mainstay of the irrigated agriculture in
Pakistan. The Indus Basin System has 3 super dams, 19
river barrages, 12 inter-river link canals, 45 huge canal
commands, and over 900,000 tubewells. The average
annual flow of Indus River System is approximately
172 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) of which presently
119.5 BCM is being diverted for irrigation and the
remaining balance outflows into the sea. . About 80%
of the cropped area, approximately 18.09 million ha
(Mha), is irrigated and 90% of the agricultural output
comes from irrigated land. The net irrigated area is
providing about 90 percent of food and fiber
requirements of the nation. Within the basin, rice-
wheat production systems account for about 14 percent
of the area and form a core base for national food grain
output [3]. In Pakistan, water is and will remain a
critical resource for sustained economic development.
Irrigated agriculture in Pakistan is not efficient and
overall system efficiency is about 45 %. Annually, the
outflow to the sea about 43 BCM. However, about 13
BCM is required for environmental flow for the coastal
areas. Water demand management can play a critical
role in improving timely water availability.
3.2 Agriculture Sector
Agriculture is the backbone Pakistan's economy.
Pakistan’s agriculture is mostly dependent on irrigation
from surface and groundwater resources. The
cultivated area of Pakistan has increased from about
14.70 Mha in 1947 to 23.5 Mha in Year 2008. Kharif
(June–October) and Rabi (November– April) are the
two principal agricultural seasons. Annually, out of
total available water for irrigation, about 84 percent
flows during kharif season and only 16 percent flows
during rabi season. Nearly 81 % of river flows and
65% of precipitation occurs during the June to
September monsoon. In the Indus Basin, water is
delivered to farms by watercourses based on
“warabandi”. Warabandi is a continuous rotational of
water generally lasts 7 days. The duration of supply to
each farmer is proportional to the size of the farmers’
land holding [4]. Wheat is the basic staple food for the
entire population, followed by rice, the second most
important food grain in Pakistan. The crop yield in
Pakistan is low as compared to other countries like
China, Egypt and USA (Figure 2). In Pakistan, the
agriculture is characterized by increased demand for
higher agriculture productivity, low irrigation systems
performance, non-availability of water for irrigation in
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2009)
 

potentially cultivable lands and uncertainties resulting

from global climatic change [5].

Table 1: Year cropped area, water availability and agriculture growth rate in Pakistan
Year Total Cropped Area Water Availability (BCM) Agriculture
(Mha) Surface Water Ground Water Total Growth (%)
2001-02 22.12 103.73 61.55 165.28 -0.1
2002-03 21.84 107.38 62.00 169.38 4.1
2003-04 23.04 119.80 62.00 181.80 2.4
2004-05 22.90 101.11 62.00 163.11 6.5
2005-06 23.12 124.11 61.88 185.99 6.3
2006-07 23.50 115.99 62.37 178.36 3.7
2007-08 23.51 118.94 62.00 180.95 1.5
Average 22.86 113.01 61.98 174.98 3.49
Source: [6][7]

technological change and improvement of technical

Figure 2: Comparison of wheat productivity in selected
countries
The growth performance of agriculture is associated
with the vagaries of mother nature. Agriculture
performed poorly in 2007-08, growing at 1.5 percent
against the target of 4.8 percent. The agriculture
subsector, livestock contributes 11.4 % to overall GDP
and 49.1 % to agricultural GDP. About 30-35 million
rural population is engaged in livestock raising [6]. The
major challenge for the agriculture sector is to produce
more food with less water for present generation
without sacrificing the needs of future generations.
Water savings from rice-based cropping systems will
be of significant importance, as nearly 50 percent of
the freshwater used in Asian agriculture is utilized for
rice production [8]. Water scarcity has led many
countries to introduce demand-based water
management in the irrigated agriculture section in
place of the existing supply-based water management.
Pakistan would have to depend more heavily on
efficiency for sustainable agricultural growth. Irrigated
land tax in province Punjab is about 284 yen/ha.
However, in case of groundwater, the selling rate is
about 260 yen per hour. In Punjab province, nearly
26% farmers are highly and 65% are moderately
dependent on groundwater. The issuses in Agriculture
sector are same in Pakistan as in many arid and semi
arid countries. The main issues are inadequate
availability of water at the critical time of crop growth.
Soil degradation, conventional agriculture practices,
salinity and water logging, In-equitable water
distribution within the canal commands, Poor Macro
Water Management and Widening gap between water
supply and water demand are major concerns for
agriculture sector in Pakistan.
4. METHODOLOGY
Water demand management is defined as a “policy that
stresses making better use of existing supplies, rather
than developing new ones” [9]. An important
consideration in water resources assessment is
variability. Water availability should meet water
demand not only in average years, but also in dry years.
The risk management literature [10] tells us that every
system has some inherent risk of failure that will
threaten its sustainability. Therefore, it is wise to tackle
this risk upfront before a failure occurs, in order to
ensure the system’s longevity. Water demand
management is to improve the productivity of water
use. The goal is to encourage the efficient use,
equitable distribution of the resources, community
participation in decisions, planning and management,

3 
 
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2009)
 

and sustainable system operation over time. The water requirement for each crop is estimated as
agriculture water demand is divided into two parts: follows:
water requirements for irrigation and water IWR = ∑ Crop Area × [CWR − Effective rainfall]
requirements for livestock.
Crop water requirement (CWR) of the paddy crop is
estimated as:
4.1 Irrigation Water Requirement
Irrigation water requirement (IWR) depends on several CWR Rice = [ ∑ (K c Rice × ET0 ) + Deep percolatio n]
factors, including cropping pattern, crop-growth Crop water requirement (CWR) for other crops is
periods, crop coefficients (kc), potential estimated as:
evapotranspiration (ETo), effective rainfall and deep
percolation in rice (paddy) areas. In Pakistan, the CWR other crops
= ∑ ( K other crops × ET 0 )
c
prevailing temperature and rainfall patterns govern two
cropping seasons. Rice and sugarcane are grown
4.2 Water Requirement for Livestock
during the monsoonal summer season while wheat, the
major food, is sown in the drier winter season.
The livestock water requirement is estimated by
multiplying the number of livestock animals times the
Table 2: Water requirements for some major crops
water use per head of livestock (Liter/day per animal).
Crops Average Seasonal Water
To forecast the future water demand, the water use per
Requirements (mm)
head was kept constant and the livestock number was
Wheat 400 projected based on growth trend in past years.
Rice 960
Cotton 630
Sugarcane 1640
WRL = No. Livestock ×Water Use ( L / d per animal )
Maize 354
Source: [11] Total agriculture water demand is sum of the irrigation
water demand and livestock water demand.

4.3 Water Productivity

Water productivity (WP) is an accurate indicator of
agricultural productivity in relationship to the crop’s
consumptive use of water. Water productivity (kg/m3)
is defined as crop yield (kg) per accumulated actual
evapotranspiration for the growing season (m3):

WP = Crop Yeild ET actual

5. SCENARIOS ANALYSIS

5.1 Water use and availability scenarios

Figure 3: Cropping calendar of major crops
The purpose of the scenario analysis is to
The amount of water required to grow rice is
comprehensively assess the influence of population
significantly higher as compared to wheat. Rice is
growth, cropping pattern, agriculture practices,
grown in continuously flooded conditions with
infrastructure development, economy and changing
ponding depths of 50-75 mm for most of the growing
climate on future water demand and availability. To
season maintained by 15 to 25 irrigations [3]. Irrigation
forecast the future water demand, four scenarios was
water requirement was calculated by multiplying crop
took in to account as follow:
area and crop water requirement (CWR) of respective
crop. Crop water requirement is usually measured in i): Business As Usual (BAU)
terms of evapotranspiration and depends on climatic This scenario is based on the assumption that the
conditions and constraints in each area. The irrigation irrigated land and water use efficiency will follow the

4 
 
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2009)
same trend as in the last ten year. There will be no
major change in prevailing agriculture practices.
ii): Best practices (BP):
This scenario is based on the assumption the current
technological change will effect the agriculture
practices. The water use efficiency, crop water
productivity will increase. However, there will be no
expansion in the irrigated area. The scenario is based
on the notions such as “soft path” and “more crop per
drop”.
iii): High Stress (HS)
In this scenario it is assumed that the irrigated land will
expand with no improvements is water use efficiency
and crop productivity.
iv): Climatic change effect
This scenario is based on the finding as found in the
literature that agricultural irrigation demand in arid and
semi-arid regions of Asia is estimated to increase by at
least 10% for an increase in temperature of 1°C [12].
In this analysis, it was assumed that by 2030, the
increase in temperature by 1 °C may lead to 10% more
agriculture irrigation demand and decrease in crop
production.
6. Results and Discussion
Based on the opted scenarios, the future water demand
in agriculture sector was projected. It was observed
that under BAU scenario, additional 5.5 BCM is
needed by the year 2030. Wheat, Rice, Cotton, maize
and sugarcane is considered to be the major crops
grown in the Pakistan. Wheat is covering about 8.41
million hector (Mha), rice covers 2.52 Mha and cotton
about 3.05 Mha. The cropped area for rice is growing
steadily, however, the decreasing trend in case of
sugarcane was observed. The crop productivity and
cropping pattern varies provincially. The crop yield
under different scenarios was forecasted in the present
study. It was noticed that Wheat is the major consumer
of water with water demand of 34 BCM in the year
2008 and 36 BCM by the year 2030. Under developed
scenarios, in case of BAU the forecasted wheat yield
for the year 2010 is 2797 kg/ha and 3367 kg/ha in the
year 2030. In case of best practices, the yield
significantly increases to 3212 kg/ha in the year 2010
and 4249 kg/ha by the year 2030. However, in case of
climatic effect scenario, the yields decrease to 2377
kg/ha in the year 2010 and 2861 by the year 2030. The
similar kind of trend was observed in case of rice. The
5 
climatic change impact on the existing crop cultivars
and crop patterns are expected most. Due to
dependence on natural resources, the adverse impacts
of climate change will be most striking in Pakistan.
Moreover, the limited capacity to adapt to a changing
climate will exaggerate the situation. The optimum
temperature required for wheat is 15-20 ºC and rice is
20-25 ºC. The prevailing temperature range in Pakistan
is 0-40 ºC for wheat and for rice is 12-40 ºC. The
effects of climatic changes are inevitable and raise the
question of how farmers can adapt. Climate change
could make it more difficult than it is already to step up
the agricultural production to meet the growing
demands in Pakistan. The crop yield in Pakistan is
lower than the world average because of inadequate
availability of water at critical times during the crop
growth. In Pakistan the three gaps i.e. “extension gap”,
“research gap” and “science gap are quite wide. The
extension and research gaps range from 31 to 75 and
25 to 57 percent respectively. The national level yields
of selected crops are 50 to 83 percent lower than the
highest averages attained in other countries of the
world. The present average consumption of fertilizers
in Pakistan is about 138 kilograms per cultivated
hectare. Significant increase in crop output can be
achieved by moving fertilizer applications towards a
more balanced doze. The crop water productivity of
wheat is 1.48 kg/m3 and rice is 0.23kg/m3. The
economic water productivity of wheat is 17 yen /m3
and rice is 3.7 yen/m3. It showed that economic water
productivity of wheat is higher than rice [13]. However,
in terms of land productivity rice is considered as a
cash crop. In Pakistan, rice crop produce more farm
revenue as compared to wheat. Also, in case of rice,
two crops per year can be grown.
The model results showed that the gap between the
water availability and demand is widening. Without
appropriate planning and methodology the booming
water scarcity will impede the agriculture sector and
Pakistan’s economy. By opting best agriculture
practices, the agriculture water demand may decrease
from 205 BCM in the base year 2008 to 192 BCM by
the year 2030. Under climate change scenario, the
projected water demand is 226 BCM in the year 2010
and 230 BCM by the year 2030. Climate change is not
only cause of increase in water requirement but also
decrease in the crop yield. There is dire need to evolve
workable methods and approaches to cope with low
productivity and unseen climatic change effects.
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2009)
 

Figure 4: Irrigation water demand of major Figure 5: Total agriculture water demand in
crops Pakistan

4500
Wheat
BAU Best Practices Climatic Effect
4000

3500
C ro p Y ield
k g /h a

3000

2500 Figure 1: Water demand and availability

under different scenarios
2000
2008 2010 2020 2030
Year

Figure 6: Wheat production under different Figure 7: Agriculture water demand and
scenarios availability under different scenarios

Total water availability at the farm gate was 181
BCM in the year 2008 with surface water resources of
119 BCM and groundwater about 62 BCM. It was
assumed that, with proper management, the
groundwater abstraction will not increase in the
coming years. There is no groundwater law to protect
the valuable groundwater resources. The declining
groundwater table and operational costs call for
improved management practices. Keeping in view the
governmental policies and infrastructure development,
it was forecasted that with the construction of new
dams and improvement of watercourses about 187, 195
and 205 BCM water will be available by the year 2010,
2020 and 2030. In the year 2010 the gap between
water demand (BAU scenario) and availability will be
about 19 BCM and by the year 2030 with the
construction of new infrastructure this gap will become
only 3.7 BCM. However, in case of best agriculture
practices, not only crop yield will increase but also the
gap will vanish. With new infrastructure development
and by applying best agriculture practices, additionally
14 BCM will be available by the year 2030. Even

6 
 
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2009)
though without new infrastructure development and by
applying best agriculture practices, the supply and
demand gap will be only 5 BCM by the year 2030.
7. CONCLUSION
Sustainable water resources and agriculture
management demands for integrated approach on
global, regional, and site-specific strategic options. The
main components that effect agriculture water demand
management are water infrastructure, socio-economic
component, assess to knowledge, land use and
cropping pattern, water pricing, water policy and
climate and hydrology. Pakistan is becoming scarce,
while major parts of conventional resources have
already been developed. In order to cope with food and
fiber requirements of rapidly growing population, an
efficient, economic, and environmentally acceptable
integrated approach is needed to arrive at sustainable
solutions. Improvement in current agricultural water
use efficiency and conservation practices, both in the
rain-fed and irrigated agriculture, is the key to future
agricultural and economic growth. It is imperative for
Pakistan to integrate climate change in overall
development strategies. Notions such as “more crop
per drop” and “soft path” focusing on demand side
management and increasing overall water productivity
will help to manage the food production for people’s of
Pakistan.
REFERENCES
[1] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization),
2001,FAOSTAT agriculture data. http://apps.fao.org/.
[2] Bastiaanssen, W.G.M., M.D. Ahmad and Y.
Chemin, 2002, Satellite surveillance of evaporative
depletion across the Indus Basin, Water Resources
Research, vol. 38, no. 12: 1273-1282.
[3] Ahmad, M. D.; Turral, H.; Masih, I.; Giordano,
M.; Masood, Z., 2007. Water saving technologies:
Myths and realities revealed in Pakistan’s rice-wheat
systems, Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water
Management Institute, 44p.
[4] Bandaragoda, D.J., 1998, Design and Practice
of Water Allocation Rules: Lessons from Warabandi in
Pakistan’s Punjab, Research Report 17, International
Irrigation Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
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[5] Saeed M., M. Ashrif & M. Bruen (2002),
Diagnostic analysis of framers skimming well
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and Drainage Systems 16: 139-160, 2002.
[6] Pakistan Economic Survey 2007-08, Finance
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Finance, Government of Pakistan (GoP).
[7] Pakistan Statistical Year Book-2008, Federal
Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan (GoP).
[8] Gleick, P. H. (ed.), 1993, Water crisis: A guide
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[9] Winpenny J.T., 1997, Demand management
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[10] Elsubbaugh S., Flides R. and Rose M., 2004,
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[11] Nazir, M.S., 1994, Crop production, Published
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Palutikof, Eds., 2008, Climate Change and Water.
Technical Paper, IPCC, 210 pp.
[13] Jehangir, W. A. et al., 2007, Sustaining crop
water productivity in rice-wheat systems of South
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