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TAREA 2.
DISTRIBUCIÓN HIPERGEOMÉTRICA
MATERIA:
PROBABILIDAD.
ALUMNO Y CÓDIGO:
OMAR MISAEL VELÁZQUEZ ORTEGA. 218747693
PROFESOR:
MAYRA LORENA LUNA ARELLANO.
SEMESTRE:
2019A
SUSTITUYENDO:
Dado que
(𝑘𝑥)(𝑁−𝑘
𝑛−𝑥
) N=10
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
(𝑁
𝑛
) k=3
n=4
(31)(10−3
4−1
) x=1
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) =
(10
4
)
(31)(73)
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) =
(10
4
)
(3)(35)
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) =
(210)
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 0.5 (100)
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 50%
(63)(14−6
3−3
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) =
(14
3
)
(63)(80)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = Dado que:
(14
3
) N=14
(20)(1) k=6
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = n=3
(364)
x=3
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 0.0549 (100)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 5.494%
SUSTITUYENDO PARA ENCONTRAR Aplicando la sumatoria de probabilidades:
LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUE
ESTUDIEN EXACTAS. PT=𝑃(𝐿𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑠) + 𝑃(𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑠)
SUSTITUYENDO:
(33)(15−3
5−3
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = Dado que:
(14
3
)
N=15
(33)(12
2
) k=3
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) =
(15
5
) n=5
x=3
(1)(66)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) =
(3003)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 0.02197
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 2.197%
DISTRIBUCIÓN HIPERGEOMÉTRICA
a) 3 no cumplan. b) no cumplan.
(220)(12,620,256) (495)(2,760,681)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) =
(1.0272𝑋1010 ) (1.0272𝑋1010 )
(𝟏𝟐
𝟎
)(𝟓𝟎−𝟏𝟐
𝟏𝟎−𝟎
) (𝟏𝟐
𝟏
)(𝟓𝟎−𝟏𝟐
𝟏𝟎−𝟏
) (𝟏𝟐
𝟐
)(𝟓𝟎−𝟏𝟐
𝟏𝟎−𝟐
)
[𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟎) = ] + [𝑷(𝒙 = 𝟏) = ] + [𝑷(𝒙 = 𝟐) = ]+
(𝟓𝟎
𝟏𝟎
) (𝟓𝟎
𝟏𝟎
) (𝟓𝟎
𝟏𝟎
)
(12
3
)(50−12
10−3
) (12
4
)(50−12
10−4
)
[𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = ] + [𝑃(𝑥 = 4) = ]=
(50
10
) (50
10
)
(12
0
)(38
10
) (12
1
)(38
9
) (12
2
)(38
8
)
[𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = ] + [𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = ] + [𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = ]+
(50
10
) 50
(10) 50
(10)
(12
3
)(50−12
10−3
) (12
4
)(50−12
10−4
)
[𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = ] + [𝑃(𝑥 = 4) = ]=
(50
10
) (50
10
)
(1)(472,733,756) (12)(163,011,640)
[𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 10
] + [𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = ]
(1.0272𝑋10 ) (1.0272𝑋1010 )
(66)(48,903,492) (220)(12,620,256)
+ [𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = ] + [𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = ]
(1.0272𝑋1010 ) (1.0272𝑋1010 )
(495)(2,760,681)
+ [𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = ]=
(1.0272𝑋1010 )
SUMANDO LAS PROBABILIDADES
(40
4
)(50−40
3−3
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = Dado que:
(50
5
)
N=50
(40 )(10 ) k=40
4 0
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = n=5
(50
5
)
x=4
(91,390)(1)
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) =
(2,118,760)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 0.0431 (100)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 4.313%
b) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que 4 de los 5 pertenezcan al sindicato?
𝑘 Datos:
Media= 𝑛 (𝑁)
40
N=50
Media= 5 (50) k=12
n=10
Media= 5(0.8)
x=4
Media= 4
3.-El IMSS planea ir a 60 pueblos de Jalisco para poner vacunas contra el VIH,
de los cuales el 20% están en zona costera. Si elegimos un 10% de los pueblos
aleatoriamente.
(12
2
)(60−12
6−2
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = Datos:
(60
6
)
N: 60
(12
2
)(48
4
) K: 12
=
(60
6
) n= 6
x= 2
(66)(194,580)
=
(50,063,860)
Resultado: La probabilidad de que 2
= 0.2565 (100)
pueblos sean costeros es de 25.65%
= 25.65%
N−k N−n
= √μ ( )( )
N N−1
DATOS:
𝑘 12 6
Media (u)= n (𝑁)= 6(60) = 5
N: 60
6 60−12 60−6 K:12
= √( ) ( 60 ) (60−1)
5
n= 6
6 48 54
= √( ) (60) (59)
5 x=2
= √0.87864