Table of Contents

1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................1
2 Objective of design...................................................................................................................1
3 Methods to determine design Flow..........................................................................................1
3.1 Biological Method.............................................................................................................1
3.2 Hydrological Method........................................................................................................2
4 Data sets and Adopted Methodology........................................................................................2
Step 1: Obtain streamflow data....................................................................................................2
Step 2: Organize the information in a table................................................................................2
Step 3: Rank the data from largest discharge to smallest discharge...........................................2
Step 4: Take log Q for each maximum streamflow.....................................................................3
Step 5: Calculate the Average Max Q or Peak Q and the Average of the log (Q)......................3
Step 6: Create a column with the excel formula {(log Q – avg(logQ))^2} and {(log Q –
avg(logQ))^3................................................................................................................................3
Step 8: Create a column with the return period (Tr)...................................................................3
Step 9: Calculated Exceedence Probability:................................................................................3
Step 10: Calculate the Sum for the {(logQ – avg(logQ))^2} and the {(logQ – avg(logQ))^3}
columns........................................................................................................................................3
Step 11: Calculate the variance, standard deviation, and skew coefficient as follows:...............3
Step 12: Calculate k values.........................................................................................................4
5 Comparison and Discussion:....................................................................................................6
6 Results......................................................................................................................................6
 Estimation of Design Storms
1 Introduction
To determine the volume of stormwater runoff from precipitation, hydrologic calculations are
used to quantify precipitation losses which occur as part of the hydrologic cycle. Typically,
stormwater management calculations only consider infiltration, interception and surface storage
losses, since short time scales will render losses from evaporation and transpiration insignificant.

2 Objective of design
 Historical flow data collected at continuous streamflow-gaging stations, sufficient in
quality and quantity, are fundamental to the accurate calculation of flow statistics.
 All data used to compute flow by two metods i.e. log person type III flow estimation and
weibull plotting position statistics in this study were from daily mean flow records, 5 day
record and 10 day record at streamflow-gaging stations.
 Flow statistics based on daily flow data has been used as benchmarks for planners and
water managers who may need to determine if streamflow will be sufficient for water-
quality and aquatic habitat needs, or if stream flows will exceed the design capacity of a
reservoir or a bridge.

3 Methods to determine design Flow

Two methods are there to determine design Flow:
1. Biological
2. Hydrological

3.1 Biological Method

The biologically-based design flow method was developed by the U.S. EPA Office of Research
and Development. The biological method examines all low flow events within a period of record,
even if several occur in one year. The biologically-based design flow is intended to examine the
actual frequency of biological exposure. The method directly uses site-specific durations (i.e.,
averaging periods) and frequencies specified in the aquatic life criteria (e.g., 1 day and 3 years
for CMC and 4 days and 3 years for CCC).
Since biologically-based design flows are based on durations and frequencies specified in water
quality criteria for individual pollutants and whole effluents, they can be based on the available
biological, ecological and toxicological information concerning the stresses that aquatic
organisms, ecosystems and their uses can tolerate.
The biologically-based calculation method is flexible enough to make full use of special
averaging periods and frequencies that might be selected for specific pollutants (e.g., ammonia)
or site-specific criteria. This method is empirical, not statistical, because it deals with the actual
flow record itself, not with a statistical distribution that is intended to describe the flow record.

3.2 Hydrological Method

The hydrologically-based design flow method was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to
answer questions relating to water supply and high flows. Most states currently use
hydrologically-based design flow method. A hydrologically-based design flow is computed using
the single lowest flow event from each year of record and then examining these flows for a series
of years. This statistical method is based on selecting and identifying an extreme value, such as
the lowest 7-day average flow in a ten-year period (i.e., 7Q10).

Advantage: The advantage of this method is that it utilizes extreme value analytical
techniques (e.g., Log-Pearson Type III flow estimating technique and graphical method)
supported by past engineering and statistical practice.

Disadvantage: The disadvantages of this method are that it is independent of biological

considerations and it cannot easily utilize site-specific durations and frequencies that are
sometimes specified in aquatic life criteria.
Graphical Method and Log Method are types of Hydrological Methods and adopted
method for storm design is LOG PEARSON TYPE III FLOW ESTIMATION
TECHNIQUE.

4 Data sets and Adopted Methodology

METHOD 1: LOG PEARSON TYPE III FLOW ESTIMATION

Step 1: Obtain streamflow data

Obtain daily streamflow data from the National Climate Data Centre NCDC repository of
National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.
Calculate the maximum discharge (daily, 5 day and 10 day) for each water year in the period of
record.

Step 2: Organize the information in a table.

All the information was organized in the form of table.

Step 3: Rank the data from largest discharge to smallest discharge.

Added a column for Rank and number each streamflow value from 1 to n (the total number of
values in dataset).
Step 4: Take log Q for each maximum streamflow.
Created a column with the log of each max or peak streamflow using the Excel formula {log
(Q)} and copy command.

Step 5: Calculate the Average Max Q or Peak Q and the Average of the log
(Q)
Average Max Q and average of log Q was calculated.

Step 6: Create a column with the excel formula {(log Q – avg(logQ))^2} and
{(log Q – avg(logQ))^3
A column with the excel formula {(log Q – avg(logQ))^2} and {(log Q – avg(logQ))^3 was
created.

Step 8: Create a column with the return period (Tr).

Created a column with the return period (Tr) for each discharge using Excel formula
{(n+1)/m}. Where n = the number of values in the dataset and m = the rank.

Step 9: Calculated Exceedence Probability:

Completed the table with a final column showing the exceedence probability of each discharge
using the excel formula {=1/Return Period or 1/Tr} and the copy command.

Step 10: Calculate the Sum for the {(logQ – avg(logQ))^2} and the {(logQ –
avg(logQ))^3} columns.
Calculated the Sum for the {(logQ – avg(logQ))^2} and the {(logQ – avg(logQ))^3} columns.

Step 11: Calculate the variance, standard deviation, and skew coefficient as
follows:
Calculated the variance, standard deviation, and skew coefficient as follows:

Variance =

Standard deviation =
Skew coefficient =

Step 12: Calculate k values

Used the frequency factor table and the skew coefficient to find the k values for the 2,10,25,50
and 100 recurrence intervals. If the skew coefficient is between two given skew coefficients in
the table than we can linearly extrapolate between the two numbers to get the appropriate k
value.
Below is given the frequency factor table.

Step 13: Using the general equation, list the discharges associated with each
recurrence interval
General equation =

METHOD 2: WEIBULL PLOTTING POSITION

Methodology:
1. Arranged rainfall data in ascending order
2. Assigned rank number starting from 1
3. Calculated plotting position
4. Plotted plotting position on log scale (X axis) and corresponding rainfall on Y axis (Use
semi log sheet)
5. Draw the curve – Rainfall frequency curve
6. Using calculation, we find recurrence interval.

Expected Maximum and Minimum rainfall:

Then we calculated Maximum and Minimum rainfall by Hazen Formula.

Where
T – Reoccurrence interval
n – Total events
m – rank number
1. Arranged observed rainfall in descending order (ascending order for minimum rainfall)
2. Assigned rank number
3. Calculated recurrence interval
4. Plotted recurrence interval (X axis) and rainfall (Y axis)
5. Draw curve and predict expected maximum or minimum rainfall using graph.

5 Comparison and Discussion:

Both methods have their scope as well as deficiencies in rainfall data estimation. A
comprehensive analysis of both methods is described below for review.
WEIBUL PLOT METHOD
SCOPE DEFICIENCIES
Plotting the data and interpreting the plot Censored or suspended data
Evaluating corrective action

Failure forecasting and prediction • Mixtures of failure modes

Test substantiation for new designs with • Nonzero time origin
minimum cost plans

Maintenance planning and cost effective • Unknown ages for successful units
replacement strategies

Spare parts forecasting • Extremely small samples (as small as one

failure)

LOG PEARSON TYPE III FLOW ESTIMATION

This is the current required method to be used A problem arises with LP3 as it has a
for all Precipitation Frequency Analysis in the tendency to give low upper bounds of the
United States. precipitation magnitudes, which is
undesirable.

6 Results
Complete excel sheets of design storms for the two methods are attached with this report.