The October 1990 judgment of the U.S.

intelligence community, as Thomas Shreeve noted in his

2003 study on NIE 15–90 for the National Defense University, “was analytically sound, prescient,
and well written. It was also fundamentally inconsistent with what US policymakers wanted to
happen in the former Yugoslavia, and it had almost no impact on US policy.” By January 1992, the
Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia ceased to exist, having dissolved into its constituent states.
Yugoslavia—the land of South (i.e. Yugo) Slavs—was created at the end of World War I when
Croat, Slovenian, and Bosnian territories that had been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire
united with the Serbian Kingdom. The country broke up under Nazi occupation during World
War II with the creation of a Nazi-allied independent Croat state, but was reunified at the end
of the war when the communist-dominated partisan force of Josip Broz Tito liberated the
country. Following the end of World War II, Yugoslavian unity was a top priority for the U.S.
Government. While ostensibly a communist state, Yugoslavia broke away from the Soviet
sphere of influence in 1948, became a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961,
and adopted a more de-centralized and less repressive form of government as compared with
other East European communist states during the Cold War.
The varied reasons for the country’s breakup ranged from the cultural and religious divisions
between the ethnic groups making up the nation, to the memories of WWII atrocities
committed by all sides, to centrifugal nationalist forces. However, a series of major political
events served as the catalyst for exacerbating inherent tensions in the Yugoslav republic.
Following the death of Tito in 1980, provisions of the 1974 constitution provided for the
effective devolution of all real power away from the federal government to the republics and
autonomous provinces in Serbia by establishing a collective presidency of the eight provincial
representatives and a federal government with little control over economic, cultural, and
political policy. External factors also had a significant impact. The collapse of communism in
Eastern Europe in 1989, the unification of Germany one year later, and the imminent collapse
of the Soviet Union all served to erode Yugoslavia’s political stability. As Eastern European
states moved away from communist government and toward free elections and market
economies, the West’s attention focused away from Yugoslavia and undermined the extensive
economic and financial support necessary to preserve a Yugoslav economy already close to
collapse. The absence of a Soviet threat to the integrity and unity of Yugoslavia and its
constituent parts meant that a powerful incentive for unity and cooperation was removed.
Slobodan Milosevic, Serbia’s president from 1989, took advantage of the vacuum created by a
progressively weakening central state and brutally deployed the use of Serbian ultra-
nationalism to fan the flames of conflict in the other republics and gain legitimacy at home.
Milosevic started as a banker in Belgrade and became involved in politics in the mid-1980s. He
rose quickly through the ranks to become head of the Serbian Communist Party in 1986. While
attending a party meeting in the Albanian-dominated province of Kosovo in May 1987,
Serbians in the province rioted outside the meeting hall. Milosevic spoke with the rioters and
listened to their complaints of mistreatment by the Albanian majority. His actions were
extensively reported by Serbian-controlled Yugoslav mass media, beginning the process of
transforming the former banker into the stalwart symbol of Serbian nationalism. Having found
a new source of legitimacy, Milosevic quickly shored up his power in Serbia through control of
the party apparatus and the press. He moved to strip the two autonomous provinces of Kosovo
and Vojvodina of their constitutionally-guaranteed autonomy within Serbia by using mass
rallies to force the local leaderships to resign in favor of his own preferred candidates. By mid-
1989 Kosovo and Vojvodina had been reintegrated into Serbia, and the Montenegro leadership
was replaced by Milosevic allies.
The ongoing effects of democratization in Eastern Europe were felt throughout Yugoslavia. As
Milosevic worked to consolidate power in Serbia, elections in Slovenia and Croatia in 1990 gave
non-communist parties control of the state legislatures and governments. Slovenia was the first
to declare “sovereignty” in 1990, issuing a parliamentary declaration that Slovenian law took
precedence over Yugoslav law. Croatia followed in May, and in August, the Yugoslav republic of
Bosnia-Herzegovina also declared itself sovereign. Slovenia and Croatia began a concerted
effort to transform Yugoslavia from a federal state to a confederation. With the administration
of George H. W. Bush focused primarily on the Soviet Union, Germany, and the crisis in the
Persian Gulf, Yugoslavia had lost the geostrategic importance it enjoyed during the Cold War.
While Washington attempted during the summer of 1990 to marshal some limited
coordination with its Western allies in case the Yugoslav crisis turned bloody, Western
European governments maintained a wait-and-see attitude. At the same time, inter-republic
relations in Yugoslavia spiraled out of control. Slovenia overwhelmingly voted for
independence in December 1990. A Croatian referendum in May 1991 also supported full
independence. Secretary of State James Baker traveled to Belgrade to meet with Yugoslav
leaders and urge a political solution to no avail. Slovenia and Croatia both declared formal
independence on June 25, 1991.
The Yugoslav Army (JNA) briefly intervened in Slovenia, but it withdrew after 10 days,
effectively confirming Slovenia’s separation. The Serb minority in Croatia declared its own
independence from the republic and its desire to join Serbia, sparking violence between armed
militias. The JNA intervened in the conflict ostensibly to separate the combatants, but it became
quickly apparent that it favored the Croatian-Serbs. The war that followed devastated Croatia,
resulting in tens of thousands dead, and hundreds of thousands of people displaced. In Bosnia-
Herzegovina, a referendum on independence took place in March 1992, but was boycotted by
the Serb minority. The republic declared its independence from Yugoslavia in May 1992, while
the Serbs in Bosnia declared their own areas an independent republic. Macedonia itself also
declared independence following a September 1991 referendum, and a U.S. peacekeeping and
monitoring force was dispatched to the border with Serbia to monitor violence.
Croatia and Slovenia were internationally recognized in January 1992, with Bosnia’s
independence recognized soon thereafter. The three countries joined the United Nations on
May 22, 1992. Serbia and Montenegro formed a new Federal Republic of Yugoslavia as a
successor state to old Yugoslavia, but the international community did not recognize its
successor claim. Over the next three years, the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina claimed
hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions from their homes, as Europe witnessed
the most horrific fighting on its territory since the end of World War II. In 1998–1999, violence
erupted again in Kosovo, with the province’s majority Albanian population calling for
independence from Serbia. A NATO bombing campaign and economic sanctions forced the
Milosevic regime to accept a NATO-led international peace keeping force. The province was
placed under U.N. administrative mandate. With the economy crumbling, Milosevic lost his grip
on power in 2001, was arrested, and turned over to the International Crimes Tribunal in The
Hague. He died in prison in 2006, before his trial concluded. In 2008, Kosovo declared
independence and was recognized by the United States and most European states, despite
Russian objections.
The NATO bombing of Yugoslavia was the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's (NATO) military
operation against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) during the Kosovo War; March 24, 1999
to June 10, 1999.
The official NATO operation code name was Operation Allied Force; the United States called it
Operation Noble Anvil,[18] while in Yugoslavia the operation was incorrectly called "Merciful Angel"
(Serbian Cyrillic: Милосрдни анђео), as a result of a misunderstanding or mistranslation.[19]
The bombings continued until an agreement was reached that led to the withdrawal of Yugoslav
armed forces from Kosovo and the establishment of United Nations Interim Administration Mission in
Kosovo (UNMIK), a UN peacekeeping mission in Kosovo.
NATO claimed that the Albanian population in Kosovo were being persecuted by FRY forces,
Serbian police, and Serb paramilitary forces, and that military action was needed to force the FRY to
stop.
Definition of humanitarian:
Humanitarian adjective
us /hjuˌmæn·ɪˈteər·i·ən/
› involved in or connected with improving people’s lives and reducing suffering
 Exactly 15 years ago, on March 24, NATO began its 78-day bombing of Yugoslavia. The
alliance bypassed the UN under a “humanitarian” pretext, launching aggression that
claimed hundreds of civilian lives and caused a much larger catastrophe than it averted.
 NATO countries attempted to gain authorization from the United Nations Security Council for
military action, but were opposed by China and Russia that indicated they would veto such a
proposal. NATO launched a campaign without UN authorization, which it described as
a humanitarian intervention.
 The FRY described the NATO campaign as an illegal war of aggression against a sovereign
country that was in violation of international law because it did not have UN Security Council
support. The NATO bombing marked the second major combat operation in its history,
following the 1995 NATO bombing campaign in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was the first time
that NATO had used military force without the approval of the UN Security Council.
 The bombing killed between 489 and 528 civilians, and destroyed bridges, industrial plants,
public buildings, private businesses, as well as barracks and military installations.

Threat to another state:

 Bombing of China’s embassy, wherein *The Chinese embassy in the Yugoslav capital
of Belgrade was also hit and set on fire by NATO airstrikes on May 7, 1999. Three
citizens of the country were killed. The alliance called the attack “a mistake.” China
is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and, along with Russia, did not
support a military solution for the Kosovo crisis*

War is expensive:
 Maaubos ung money for war. "The economy here is collapsing, and there is
nothing anyone can do about it," said a Western diplomat who has
monitored the Yugoslav economy for years. "I'm convinced it is going to
come apart in a big way."
 Ljubomir Madzar, a Belgrade economist, said "the international community, the
awareness that peace is necessary and the cost of the war" would influence Serbia's
decision on whether to accept the United Nations plan to deploy peacekeeping forces
in Yugoslavia. "The costs of the war far outweigh the gains," he said.
 Whoever wins occupies that certain country.
 Gain instead of loss.
 In the 1980s the Yugoslav economy entered a period of continuous crisis. Between 1979
and 1985 the Yugoslav dinar plunged from 15 to 1,370 to the U.S. dollar, half of the
income from exports was used to service the debt, while real net personal income
declined by 19.5%. Unemployment rose to 1.3 million job-seekers, and internal debt was
estimated at $40 billion.[34]
 Yugoslavia took on a number of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans and
subsequently fell into heavy debt. By 1981, it had incurred $18.9 billion in foreign
debt.[29] However, Yugoslavia’s main concern was unemployment. In 1980 the
unemployment rate was at 13,8%,[28] not counting around 1 million workers employed
abroad.[31] Deteriorating living conditions during the 1980s caused the Yugoslavian
unemployment rate to reach 17 percent, while another 20 percent were underemployed.
60% of the unemployed were under the age of 25.[16] By 1988 emigrant remittances to
Yugoslavia totalled over $4.5 billion (USD), and by 1989 remittances were $6.2 billion
(USD), which amounted to over 19% of the world's total.[35][36] In 1988 Yugoslavia owed
$21 billion to Western countries.[37]
 The collapse of the Yugoslav economy was partially caused by its non-aligned stance that
had resulted in access to loans from both superpower blocs.[38] This contact with
the United States and the West opened up Yugoslav markets sooner than in the rest
of Central and Eastern Europe. In 1989, before the fall of the Berlin Wall, Yugoslav
federal Prime Minister Ante Marković went to Washington to meet with President
George H. W. Bush, to negotiate a new financial aid package. In return for assistance,
Yugoslavia agreed to even more sweeping economic reforms, which included a
new devalued currency, another wage freeze, sharp cuts in government spending, and the
elimination of socially owned, worker-managed companies.[39] The Belgrade
nomenclature, with the assistance of western advisers, had laid the groundwork for
Marković's mission by implementing beforehand many of the required reforms, including
a major liberalization of foreign investment legislation.
 This was in part muted by the spectacular draining of the banking system, caused by the
rising inflation, in which millions of people were effectively forgiven debts or even
allowed to make fortunes on perfectly legal bank-milking schemes[citation needed]. The banks
adjusted their interest rates to the inflation, but this could not be applied to loan contracts
made earlier which stipulated fixed interest rates. Debt repayments for privately owned
housing, which was massively built during the prosperous 1970s, became ridiculously
small and as a result banks suffered huge losses. Indexation was introduced to take
inflation into account, but the resourceful population continued to drain the system
through other schemes, many of them having to do with personal cheques.[citation needed]
 Personal cheques were widely used in Yugoslavia in pre-inflation times. Cheques, which
were considered legal tender, were accepted by all businesses. They were processed by
hand and mailed by regular post, so there was no way to ensure real-time accounting. The
banks therefore continued to deduct money from current accounts on the date they
received the cheque, and not on the date it was issued. When inflation rose to triple and
then quadruple digits, this allowed another widespread form of cost reduction or outright
milking of the system. Bills from remote places would arrive six months late, causing
 losses to businesses. Since banks maintained no-fee mutual customer service, people
would travel to small banks in rural areas on the other end of the country and cash in
several cheques. They would then exchange the money for foreign currency,
usually German mark and wait for the cheque to arrive. They would then convert a part
of the foreign currency amount and repay their debt, greatly reduced by inflation.
Companies, struggling to pay their work-force, adopted similar tactics.[citation needed]
 New legislation was gradually introduced to remedy the situation, but the government
mostly tried to fight the crisis by issuing more currency, which only fuelled the inflation
further. Power-mongering in big industrial companies led to several large bankruptcies
(mostly of large factories), which only increased the public perception that the economy
is in a deep crisis. After several failed attempts to fight the inflation with various
schemes, and due to mass strikes caused by austerity wage freezes, the government
of Branko Mikulić was replaced by a new government in March 1989, headed by Ante
Marković, a pragmatic reformist. He spent a year introducing new business legislation,
which quietly dropped most of the associated labour theory and introduced private
ownership of businesses.[40] The institutional changes culminated in eighteen new laws
that declared an end to the self-management system and associated labor.[41] While public
companies were allowed to be partially privatised, mostly through investment, the
concepts of social ownership and worker councils were still retained.[citation needed]
 By the end of 1989 inflation reached 1,000%.[42] On New Year's Eve 1989, Ante
Marković introduced his program of economic reforms. Ten thousand Dinars became one
"New Dinar", pegged to the German Mark at the rate of 7 New Dinars for one
Mark.[43] The sudden end of inflation brought some relief to the banking system.
Ownership and exchange of foreign currency was deregulated which, combined with a
realistic exchange rate, attracted foreign currency to the banks. However, by the late
1980s, it was becoming increasingly clear that the federal government was effectively
losing the power to implement its programme.[44]