Ashok Devanampriya

18th Feb 2019

Ashok Devanampriya
Background
 Sri Anant Acharya made some unreasonable and exaggerated claims in
twitter about his financial timing theory which were not acceptable by
matured traders.

 Sri Anant Acharya gave an open challenge in twitter and invited me to

traders carnival in Delhi as i countered some of his big claims.

 If you are convinced with my theory, pay 30K. Else I will pay double.

 I took the challenge and went to carnival to witness the event.

 I only attended 4 to 5 of them out of some 15 as I found some of them

uninteresting.

 I have published the reviews (my opinion. Not yours) in twitter already.

 This document will deep dive into his claims to verify and conclude
mathematically.
 What happened in Traders Carnival – Day2
 Anant Acharya spent almost 4 hours on the 2nd day night from 10.30pm to
almost 2am kinds.

 He spent 3 hours talking about

 Story of Jesus and his incarnation (One of the speakers Shai who was a
market profile expert clearly told that all his date claims were wrong. There
is a diff between solar and lunar calendar)
 Why we have 365 days
 Why we have 52 weeks
 Why we have 30 days - 3 hours of Gyan and nothing related to TRADING

 He spent another 30 mins on basics of Elliot wave by showing some

videos most of which are in YouTube.

 He ideally spent 30 mins to max 45 mins on the 54 days theory and

the 29.xx days model.

This is an attempt to seriously analyze his 54 days story.

99% Win rate , 1:10 Risk Reward
 Mr Acharya at the end of his 4 hours session wrote on the board.

 99% WIN RATE & 1 : 10 RR

 Of course that had nothing to do with his 54 days and 29.xx days
teaching.
 I am a serious trader since 6 years. Full time trader since 2 years.
 Jesse Livermore had 43% win rate and made millions (Billions with
inflation
 WD GANN had 92% win rate and made millions (Billions with inflation)
 Acharya sir has 99% win rate with 1 : 10 RR. Where are his billions?
 I WONDER HOW. I WONDER WHY.
 GODS MUST BE DAMN CRAZY.
What happened after his event on day3?
 Anant Acharya started demanding money from me on the 3rd day as he
claimed to have proven something special.

 I told, sir you have shared information. You never convinced me as per the
challenge. Let me do my analysis.

 He told do the analysis right now. I sat with Mr Satra (another TC friend) to
validate his claims.

 We ideally checked 30 trades from the last 2 years data.

 15 won
 13 failed.
 2 we were not sure.

 Finally we went to him for review. He was packing up and in a hurry to

catch his flight and we could not conclude.

 I have to deep dive today as Mr. Acharya made a tweet reply to Kapil ji
saying that I did not pay his 30k.
 The beginning of Failure.
 Ideally Cycles start from significant HIGHs & LOWs.

 When we started the 54 days cycle study from the NIFTY low
of 2252.75 on the 27th October 2008, Acharya’s model
miserably Failed.

 Later we were told to start from The NIFTY high of 8th Jan
2008 which was 6357.1. This analysis is based on that date.

 This is entirely different from the dates publish by

Acharya in twitter as they were recent trades of 2018. We
have tested from peak of 2008

 Here is my honest analysis without any bias for your

understanding.
The Backtest with the NIFTY top of 2008
 The Nifty made its Top on the 8th of Jan 2008 and the high
value is 6357.1

 Lets calculate the dates based on this date and identify the
recurring dates .

 We shall check the model performance for the next 25 to 30

trades with Entry , Stop Loss and Target
The dates from the Nifty top of 2008

 The Nifty made its Top on the 8th of Jan 2008 and the high value is 6357.1
 Lets calculate the dates based on this date and identify the recurring
dates .
 We shall check the model performance for the next 25 to 30 trades with
Entry , Stop Loss and Target
The dates from the Nifty top of 2008
The dates from the Nifty top of 2008
The dates from the Nifty top of 2008
Trade 1 – 2nd March 2008 - Sunday

 2nd March is a Sunday. Hence we take the entry on the close of 3rd March.
 ENTRY price – 4944.25
 SL price (Previous day high) – 5290.8
 TARGET – No Target. Close on the next 54th day – 25th April – 5110.8
 RESULT - 166.25 POINTS LOSS
Trade 2 – 25th April 2008 - Friday

 25th April 2008 is a strong bull Candle. There was no reversal.

 Hence we took the next day Doji candle as reference and will enter on the
high low breakout. Next day high was broken and hence we go LONG @
5147.45. Stop Loss is the Low of the Candle which is 5079.15.
 Result : STOP LOSS HIT ON 8th May 2008. 68.3 points LOSS
Trade 3 – 18th June 2008 - Wednesday

 Nifty made a lovely Top on this bearish day. I went short on the close of the
candle @ 4571 and my SL was the high of candle @ 4679.75.
 The Stock almost moved 900 points down and returned to close on 11th
August with limited loss.
 Huge opportunity Loss due to weak exit rule. Exit rule told in carnival
was Either SL hit or close on the 54th day.
 Result : Loss of 50 points.
Trade 4 – 11th August 2008 - Monday

 Nifty Made a bull candle in an upward trend. Hence I take the next day
candle as reference which is bear candle. Its close is ENTRY @ 4557.05 &
high is the SL @ 4649.85. SL was never hit. Hence I closed the trade on
6th October (4th October is holiday) @ 3606.95

 RESULT : The first and the bumper profit trade – 950 Points
Trade 5 – 4th October 2008 - Saturday

 4th Oct is Saturday. Hence 6th Oct is taken. It is a bear candle in a bear
trend. No reversal. Hence taking 7th day high low breakout.
 Short @ 3537 , SL @ 3732.65. SL not hit. Trade closed on 54th day. 28th
november (27th nov is holiday) @2752.2

 Result : Another bumper Trade – 785 points Profit

Trade 6 – 27th November 2008- Thursday

 27th November is a holiday. 28th is the reference day.

 A doji is formed on the 28th which is unclear direction. Hence we take next
day breakout. 1st Dec 2008. Entry = 2669.5 & SL = 2832.85

 RESULT : SL hit on 8th December. 163 points LOSS

Trade 7 – 20th Jan 2009- Tuesday

 20th Jan 2009 is a bearish day after a minor uptrend. Hence we go short at
the close of the candle.
 Entry @ 2796.85, SL @ 2842.9 (Previous day high – the high of 2 days)

 Result : SL hit on 28th Jan 2009 – 46 points LOSS

Trade 8 – 15th March 2009 - Sunday

 15th march is holiday. Ref is 16th March. It’s a bull candle in a uptrending
market. Hence the next day breakout is the direction.
 Entry @ 2805.6 & SL @ 2738.7

 Result : Awesome Profit – 814 points profit

Trade 9 – 8th May 2009 - Friday

 8th May is a bearish candle after a long up trend. Hence we go SHORT at

the close of the candle with the recent High as Stop Loss
 Entry @ 3619.9 & SL @ 3717.05

 RESULT : Stop loss hit on 18th May & 91 points LOSS

Trade 10 – 1st July 2009 - Wednesday

 1st July is a bull day after a minor correction. We can either take its high low
break out or the next candle HL break out. Ideally both fails.
 Entry @ 4362.3 SL @4249.7

 Result Stop loss hit on 6th July -112 points Loss

Trade 11 – 24th August 2009 - Monday

 24th august is a bull day with an uptrend. Lets enter based on next candle
breakout. Entry @ 4672.9 & SL @ 4582.5

 Result Stop loss hit on 2nd September -90 points Loss

Trade 12 – 17th October 2009 - Saturday

 17th oct 2009 is a Doji candle after a long uptrend. Hence we decide on the
next candle breakout. Entry @ 5181.95 SL@5102.65

 RESULT : Profit of 52 points with closure on the next 54th day

 A major trend pick was missed due to the 54th day closure rule.
 Trade 13 – 10th December 2009 - Thursday

 10th Dec 2009 is a doji candle after a uptrend. Next 3 candles doji. Hence
4th bear candle used for entry based on breakout. Entry @ 5129.45
SL@5018.25

RESULT :SL HIT.

 Trade 14 – 2nd Feb 2010- Tuesday

 2nd Feb is a bear candle after a series of downtrend. We will act on the next
candle which is bull. The high low break out is trade. Entry @4949.15 ,
SL@4831.

RESULT :SL HIT on the very next day.

 Trade 15 – 28th March 2010 - Sunday

 28th March 2010 is a Sunday and hence 29th Monday is ref. it’s a bull
candle after a long rally. The next day candle was a bear. Hence we play
that breakout Entry @ 5251.35 and SL @ 5325.

RESULT :SL HIT on the 5th of April 2010

The Trade List
The Trade List
The Trade Summary

 We took 15 trades from the Nifty top of 2008.

 11 trades failed.

 4 trades won and 3 of them made huge money.

 Win rate = 26.66%. In spite of that the strategy

made 1500 points which is great.

 This proves that you don’t need 99% win rate

strategy to make money in market.
What is 54 days cycle? Did Acharya invent it?
http://premium.working-money.com/wm/display.asp?art=598

https://www.wavesstrategy.com/time-cycle-of-54-days-neo-wave-and-bollinger-
bands-does-the-magic-again/

http://elliottwaveindia.blogspot.com/2016/09/time-cycles-of-54-days-combined-
with.html
It is not at all new. It is a well known phenomenon

 The 54 days cycle theory exists from a Long time.

 It is not new

 It is not a secret

 The world already knows about it.

 The attached site links of 2016 is a testimonial.

 Why should Acharya claim it to be a secret?

 Did he invent it?
 Did he discover it?
Final Conclusion
• THERE IS NO SECRET. NO SECRET IS THE BIG SECRET

• Hence I do not believe in your so called 99% win rate and

1:10RR theory.

• If you had it you would have been another Ambani by now. But,
you are looking for students for your 21K program.

• It is total rubbish and a marketing gimmick

• I don’t have to pay you 30K because.

– You did not teach any secret to me.
– You just update a cycle which is in the past.
– It is already there in 100s of blogs across internet.
– I can give tons of seasonal cycles which we have discovered with pure data

• CONCLUSION : YOU HAVE NOT CONVINCED ME.

Alternative way to convince me to win my 30K

• The only way to convince me is to post future 10

trades with clear Entry , SL and Target.

• You don’t have to tell your secrets too. Just Entry,

Exit, SL in advance is enough.

• Even if you get 50% win rate (Forget your 99%)

with 1 : 10 RR, I will accept you as my Guru. Else,
stop making such claims atleast going forward.
 Signing off

Ashok Devanampriya
Twitter - @ashdevanampriya
Always a student of stock market and a life time learner.

We believe in only God. For everything else, come with Clear DATA

Thank you