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An Afghan man casts his vote during the parliamentary election at a polling station in Kabul.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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Folly of the Afghan presidential election 2019 | The Express Tribune 12/10/2019, 6)51 PM
held between the top two candidates. According to data released by the
IECA, as many as 2,597 out of 4,905 polling centres received 1,051,998
voters out of a total of 9,665,745 registered voters. The election
commission still awaits reports from the remaining 2,308 polling centres.
Nobody knows how many people are living in Afghanistan as there has not
been any census in the war-torn country since 1979. However, UN
estimates indicate that Afghanistan has a total population of over 38 million.
It is expected that the total voter turnout would be less than 25% at most.
This shows that voter turnout this year has been at a historic low compared
to the last three elections, in terms of the real number and absolute
percentage. It can therefore be extrapolated that this election is nothing shy
of a no-confidence motion not just against the incumbent President, Ashraf
Ghani, but also on the legitimacy of the electoral system and the current
framework of the Afghan state. As such this casts a dark shadow of doubt
over the credibility of the election process.
they can only serve for a maximum of 10 years before having to vacate the
presidential palace.
As the Taliban are now stronger than ever since 2001, controlling almost
60% of Afghan territory and capturing more every day, it is capable of
hijacking the 2019 election by issuing death threats, which it has done.
Thus explaining the abysmally low voter turnout, as few would be willing to
risk their lives to elect a president of a republic on the verge of dissolution.
Moreover, even if a president is elected based on his capacity to govern, he
would be nothing more than the Mayor of Kabul.
Karzai rightly pointed out that this election is going to further strike divisions
in the Afghan society. It is worth recalling the chaos that erupted in the
aftermath of the disputed 2014 presidential elections which were allegedly
rigged. In the first round, Abdullah Abdullah secured 45% of the popular
vote while Ghani was polled 31.56%. As no candidate managed to secure
more than 50% votes, a second round was held between the two which was
won by President Ghani. Abdullah, a major candidate and important political
figure in Afghanistan refused to concede defeat, resulting in a deal between
the two mediated by then US secretary of state, John Kerry. This led to the
formation of a National Unity Government and the position of Chief
Executive of Afghanistan. This was in fact a power-sharing agreement
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Folly of the Afghan presidential election 2019 | The Express Tribune 12/10/2019, 6)51 PM
between the two. Yet for the past five years, they have not seen eye to eye
on many issues.
The 2019 election is Abdullahʼs third bid for the presidency, making him a
seasoned player. It is likely we could see a replay of the 2014 dispute
between Ghani and Abdullah, but on a greater scale given the stakes are
higher than before. Already, both have declared themselves victors. There is
also a strong possibility of a reversal of roles where Ghani would assume the
office of the chief executive while Abdullah would be elected president. In
any case, either would be unwilling to accept defeat. Also as this would be
Ghaniʼs last term as president if he wins, Abdullah would by far be the
leading presidential candidate in the next election if the Islamic Republic still
exists.
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